$NVDA Q1 FY27 Earnings, Revenue & Guide Final Estimates!
Hi everyone. This is the follow-up post to last week’s Full Estimates article and will provide my finalized numbers for Q1. I will briefly explain the reason for each change without repeating too much from last week.
Top Level:
I am adjusting my revenue estimate down by $0.10 billion, from $80.93 billion to $80.83 billion.
This is the result of a $0.1 billion decrease in Gaming ($3.50 billion from $3.60 billion) and a ~$0.75 billion increase in other expenses, inclusive of tax. I am not adjusting my estimate for gross margins or shares outstanding.
The result of these changes on EPS is -$0.04 to $1.85 per share.
Changes Explained:
Gaming revenue from industry peers has been largely disappointing, with AMD reporting solid figures but guiding for a large downturn next quarter. MSFT reported weak hardware numbers and echoed $AMD’s outlook. $NVDA’s fiscal quarter ends later, and is likely to see a larger impact in the current quarter.
In regards to other expenses, unusually high other income in Q4 was overweighted when calculating Q1 figures. The estimated tax payment inched up slightly as well, totaling $0.75 in additional expense. The combination of these factors negatively impacted EPS by $0.04 (rounded).
Consolidated Final Estimates:
- Revenue: $80.83 billion
- EPS: $1.85
- Q1 Gross Margin: 75.1%
- Q2 Revenue Guide: $93 billion +/- 2%
- Q2 Margin Guide: 75% +/- 0.5%
Comparison Visualized:
Some figures in the Analyst Consensus column are estimates based on known EPS and Total Revenue forecasts. The math ties out, and the consensus is an average, so using an example comparison with segment data is fair.
Updated Analyst Estimates:
Multiple firms raised their PT and earnings estimates for NVDA last week. This means that the consensus I use to compare against has increased. I will continue to monitor the latest aggregated consensus numbers for EPS, Revenue, and Guidance leading up to the report. Please note that I use the average estimate from Yahoo Finance data.
As of today, 42 Analysts expect an average of $79.17 billion in Q1 revenue, 39 analysts expect average EPS around $1.78, and 40 analysts expect an average of $87.03 billion in Q2 revenue.
Positions Update:
In the full estimates post, I noted my intention to leg in and out of call debit spreads while attempting to collect premium for each spread. This has largely worked so far, with the portfolio currently holding two $150/$200 spreads, one $175/$185 spread, and one $180/$185 spread. In total, I was paid a $3.56 premium to open these positions and will make a max gain of $118.56 premium if all options expire ITM.
The next NVDA post will come after Q1 Results and compare how the print stacked up to my and the street's estimates. Thank you for reading this far, and I am happy to answer any questions about the updates in the comments.