u/-millenial-boomer-

Ever since the news back in May that Ballard has an undefined schedule, I’ve been getting wound up as I grind through my nonsensical daily commute from Market St traversing through Seattle and back.

I did feel a brief sense of relief when the 2042 target was announced a couple weeks back, albeit 16 years away. But within a couple of days I cane a cross a couple of articles that made me go down a bit of a rabbit hole that has left me highly skeptical about the timeline and frustrated with the political landscape of America and Sound Transit.

To som it up the federal funding landscape for passenger rail is shifting in a manner that makes sound transits prospects for billions assumed seem less likely all while sound transit seems to be increasing their bullishness. They are not providing financial planning transparency of their revisions of reallocations of our public dollars. To make matters worse the cascading impact could be immense on both DSST2 and Ballard timelines.

I know this might come off as alarmist and I actually hope someone can talk me out of my own head.

Specific federal funding tea leaves that indicate a downward trend:

- A recent NYT article did a write up on how there has been zero CIG approved projects in 2025 and 2026. Capital Investment Grant (CIG) is the primary source of large federal grants for passenger rail infrastructure like ST3.

- The Senate recently passed a stopgap funding package 90-6 that would extend federal highway and transit programs through Dec. 11 but not preserve all IIJA advance appropriations supporting transit and passenger rail. While this is scoped to only the stopgap period, it indicates that surface rail funding is clearly lower priority relative to highway infrastructure.

- Trump and FTA head Sean Duffy have made repeated comments and maneuvers that specifically target passenger rail projects.

In direct contrast to these signals, Sound Transit seems to be tripling down on ther federal funding projections.

- in a recent board meeting it was revealed that one of the ways they closed budget gap is revising their CIG funding assumption for WSLE from $1B to $3B based on their thought they will get a higher rating in the FFGA review.

- sound transit has not revealed their revised long term financial plan but the previous baseline had assumed $27.8 in grants so assume it has gone up elsewhere since the only CIG grant assumption that I’ve heard them talk about has tripled. Again this would be a lot easier if they were more transparent about our public dollars.

- Future FFGAs have not even formally started and do not represent appropriated money. Instead they are contingent on future federal policy, competition with other projects, and Sound Transit's ability to secure agreements at the necessary scale and timing.

Specific scenarios that have me concerned.

- WSLE advances as planned while DSTT2 and the Ballard extension remain dependent on future federal commitments

- WSLE has incurred substantial capital costs and debt obligations and is locked in

- $3B Federal funding does not come through

- Without federal remittance for WSLE receipts, DSST2 and Ballard gets pushed back multiple years

- 2036 begins the existing system's lifecycle obligations including major fleet (e.g., series 1 trains) infrastructure replacements are due. These are not discretionary; they are higher priority than expansion and compete for the same financial capacity. Series 1 core capacity has $3.3B CIG federal grant assumption.

- $3.3B Federal funding does not come through for series 1 replacements.

- ST funding is diverted to lifecycle projects. And DSST2 and Ballard get delayed further

- and this is when the cascading loop begins as the aging infrastructure of ST1/ST2 kick in including the $4.5B CBTC and other multi billion COGT lifecycle projects

- DSST2 and Ballard keep getting pushed further and further by core capacity.

All the while, without DSST2 , WSLE operates as a line that delivers only a fraction of its intended network value and becomes extraordinarily expensive shuttle from West Seattle to SODO for over a decade.

And of course Ballard gets pushed into oblivion.

My assessment on Sound Transit

- At best, this represents optimism bias allowing them to project that future Congresses and administrations will recreate a favorable federal funding environment so they don’t have to stress-test the plan against a materially weaker outcome.

- I think it borders on strategic misrepresentation (not because anyone is deliberately deceiving the public) because an optimistic federal funding assumption can make an otherwise unaffordable capital program appear achievable while shifting the consequences of failure into the future

I don’t know the solution I just know I want to ride the link from Market St in my lifetime!

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