This chart is exactly why I stopped shorting strong momentum too early.
One thing I’ve noticed over the years is that traders love trying to call tops the moment a market starts looking “extended.” I used to do the same thing constantly. But when I started paying more attention to pivot structures and higher timeframe momentum, a lot of fake “reversal signals” started making more sense. Looking at this chart, the market keeps repeating the same behavior: breaking above pivot resistance, consolidating without fully losing structure, buyers defending pullbacks, and then momentum expanding again toward the next resistance zone. Most people only focus on price being “too high,” but what matters more is whether momentum and structure are actually breaking down. Right now the bigger thing I’m watching is how price behaves near the 7580 area. If momentum keeps holding above previous pivot levels instead of rejecting hard, I honestly think a lot of traders trying to short this move could get squeezed again. One thing that improved my trading a lot was learning to separate “overextended” from “trend exhaustion.” Those are not the same thing. A strong trend can stay irrational way longer than most people expect. Lately I’ve been refining a pretty simple framework using higher timeframe pivots, momentum continuation, and failed breakdowns to filter out low-probability reversal trades. It’s interesting how often the same structures repeat once you stop focusing on emotions and start focusing on price behavior instead.