Large position taken
I plan to Just hold til I retire (20-27 years)
What are the odds, after 20 years, its worth less than it would be if left in VOO the whole time? Can we even assess probability of that accurately?
EDIT: I did a backtest to check each 20 year period and see what the average return of this strategy was (75k lump+ 1k per month) with a starting date going back to 1970-1989 and the most recent period being 2007-2026.
The conclusion was an average of 22.4% anually.
Worst case, id have ended with $40.2k.(1989-2008) Best case, id have ended with $97.3 mil (1980-1999) The mean ending balance was $8.009 mil The median ending balance was $1.2 mil The ending balance beat SNP500 returns only 43% of the time.
I THINK my analysis here points me towards making an exit if it performs significantly better than the mean case on a shorter than 20 yr time table. Depending on how this goes, i may exit a bit before 20 yr mark..