r/TQQQ

After looking at the etf performance. I am thinking about having a position in TQQQ and SOXL when both are above their 50 sma. And selling on end of week of the cross below the 50 sma, and also being in above the 200 sma as a guard rail. Any one have any thoughts on this (good and bad welcomed)?

I have been researching systematic ways to hold leveraged tech exposure, especially TQQQ, while reducing the risk of catastrophic drawdowns.

A popular approach is Jason Kelly’s 9Sig strategy, which uses TQQQ with a value-averaging / rebalancing framework. The general idea is to buy more TQQQ after declines and trim after strong gains. I understand the appeal: TQQQ is extremely volatile, and systematically buying weakness can work very well if the asset eventually recovers.

However, the main issue I have with that approach is that it remains structurally dependent on TQQQ recovering. In a long Nasdaq bear market, or a regime similar to 2000–2013, continuing to buy TQQQ weakness could be psychologically and financially brutal.

So I have been testing a different framework:

Strategy

• When TQQQ is above its 150-day simple moving average, hold 100% TQQQ.
• When TQQQ is below its 150-day simple moving average, rotate out of TQQQ and hold:
  • 30% KMLM
  • 30% DBMF
  • 40% UGL

The idea is simple: when the Nasdaq/TQQQ trend is intact, stay fully aggressive. When the trend breaks, do not average down into TQQQ; move into assets that can perform for different macro reasons.

Why these defensive assets?

KMLM and DBMF are managed-futures / trend-following ETFs. They can potentially benefit from trends in commodities, currencies, bonds, and rates. They are not dependent on Nasdaq earnings or tech multiples.

UGL is 2x gold exposure. It is not a perfect hedge, but it can help in inflationary, monetary-stress, dollar-weakness, or crisis regimes.

So the “risk-off” basket is not cash only, and it is not another hidden tech bet. It is designed to move away from tech beta when tech momentum breaks.

Why I prefer this over a 9Sig-style TQQQ strategy

Jason Kelly’s 9Sig logic is essentially to exploit TQQQ volatility by buying lower lows and selling higher highs. That can work well in a volatile bull market or in sharp drawdowns followed by strong recoveries.

But my concern is what happens in a long bear market.

With 9Sig, the strategy can keep adding exposure to a falling leveraged ETF. That may be fine if the bear market is short. But if the bear market lasts years, the investor needs enormous discipline and enough dry powder to keep buying.

My strategy does the opposite. It says:

>

That seems conceptually more robust to me.

Backtest result

Using the available data from late 2020 to July 2026, the SMA150 version performed better than the same system using SMA200.

Approximate result for the strategy:

• TQQQ > SMA150: 100% TQQQ
• TQQQ < SMA150: 30% KMLM / 30% DBMF / 40% UGL

In my backtest, $100,000 grew to roughly $708k, with a CAGR around 42%, a max drawdown around -33%, and a Calmar ratio around 1.28.

The SMA200 version was still good, but weaker: lower CAGR and higher drawdown.

I also tested replacing TQQQ with SOXL. SOXL produced much higher returns in the recent sample, but I consider it conceptually weaker as a core strategy because it is much more concentrated in semiconductors, more cyclical, more volatile, and more sensitive to the exact moving-average parameter.

My conclusion

I am not saying this is perfect or future-proof. The data window is short because KMLM and DBMF do not have very long histories. Also, this strategy still uses TQQQ, so it is obviously very aggressive.

But conceptually, I prefer this framework to a pure 9Sig-style TQQQ averaging strategy because it separates regimes:

• In a strong tech bull market: hold TQQQ.
• In a broken tech trend: leave TQQQ and rotate to macro/trend/gold exposure.
• Re-enter TQQQ only when the trend recovers.

To me, that seems more robust than continuing to buy more TQQQ during a potentially long bear market.

Curious to hear criticism, especially from people who have studied 9Sig, trend-following, or leveraged ETF decay.

I’m thinking about starting a 9-sig or buy-and-hold strategy. I saw that the expense ratio is 0.82%, but I’m also wondering about the swap financing cost from the leverage and the effect of daily rebalancing. If I look at TQQQ’s price chart or YoY performance, does that already reflect all of those costs? I’m trying to understand the true long-term cost of holding TQQQ.”

For context, TQQQ’s official expense ratio is 0.82%, and leveraged ETFs also have an additional structural drag from daily rebalancing and financing costs, so simple chart performance does not cleanly isolate just the headline fee

All three are 2x leverages of Nasdaq 100. Are the latter two better because of the QLD fee? Or is QLD better as you don't need to do the rebalancing every time?

Which is better?

Good day All. I plan to embark on a journey to wheel TQQQ using QQQs 50 Day SMA as my anchor. I haven't back tested this yet, but based on my research, QQQ typically treats the 50 day as support until it takes it out, then treats it as resistance.

I started the campaign off with a short put at $65 and if that's taken out, sell calls either ATM or OTM based on RSI and overall sentiment. If the price continues to trend down, average down once prices are near the lower Bollinger Band with a 2 SD.

I'm basically all in on TQQQ across my brokerage, Roth, and Trad IRAs. Total ~200k. Getting ready to do something with another 10k for the month, but the volatility lately has been scaring me. Not quite enough to sell yet, since a big chunk of my shares were bought last November and I want to avoid the capital gains, but enough that I'm second guessing buying more. Should I just sell covered puts for a while? Are you considering moving to other sectors as tech seems to be falling off a bit?

The smart thing to do is probably diversify a bit but obviously I don't want to miss out on all the huge tech gains. That's why I'm considering just hedging on more TQQQ even if only a little.

FNGU up over 4%

Meta up 10%

Rddt up 10%

Hood way up

PLTR up nicely

Surprised TQQQ is down on such a good day. Might sell MU puts. Or maybe TQQQ puts.

For those of you holding $500k+ in TQQQ (especially those with portfolios in the millions), how meaningful have you found the quarterly dividend?
My TQQQ position recently surpassed $500k thanks to the rally we’ve had since March, and I was pleasantly surprised to receive a $1,032 dividend today.
I’m curious, once a position grows to $2–3 million, does the dividend become significant enough to provide meaningful monthly income?

I started shorting from 69 to 88 USD per share. Now I’m heavily shorting tqqq average price 80 dollars.
Please share your thoughts on this.