r/TQQQ

Just wanted to point this out. Nasdaq 100 is in a shakeout pattern with point and figure charting. Pattern fails if a new low is made.

Finally got a chance to put together an overview of my long TQQQ put strategy aka 'TQQQ War Chest'. It has many flaws and I've tweaked it a lot since beginning in 2023, but this is where is stands at present. I will link to this post on future weekly posts.

Will repost if I make any new/additional tweaks as I blunder my way along the path to future glory. Good luck everyone. Ignore the short term noise. Eyes on the 2030s. LFG.

Most of SMA strategies I've seen, were counting dips as crashes and selling TQQQ more often than needed and hurting the performance.

This is the detection I am considering to run, it mostly avoids dips, has fewer trades and still detects all of the important crashes.

The rule is: Exit to cash when 250 days median price is 30% above current TQQQ price, only if median line slope is climbing less than 20% year (not a strong trend) and only after 10 days of sitting below line (persistent)

On the graph, this rule appears as blue line and you are supposed to sell, when TQQQ price drops below it.

I am curious what filters are you using and happy to manually run calculations and compare the performance of yours against this

Again, not much moving the needle this week.  Markets reaching new highs despite doomsayers banging drums about oil shock and elevated bond yields.  Hard to believe summer is more than half over.  

Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA.  I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.  

Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): With the recent rally, currently at $7.47m. That compares with $3.5m 2025, $2.0m 2024 and $609k 2023.

Walk Away Value (If I liquidated the War Chest and bought back the QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.02m, pre-tax.  This includes other port income and outside cash added, totaling around 2.89m. 

TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.45m.

Cash Hoard: Minimal growth. Currently approx $423k.

QQQ short puts: 15 at $670 strike. 100 at $630 strike. The $670s are just sitting there, decaying. The $630s I am still rolling. It is my only source of income at present from my beaten down collar.

TQQQ CCs: Still deep in the red. Currently short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts), $65 (120 contracts) and Sept/26 exp calls with strike $60 (320 contracts). The current cost to close them all out is around $1.55m. Remaining patient.

Total P/L on options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs - TQQQ long puts): Currently around $478k. TQQQ long puts book value $1.49k, so I’m in a deficit of around $1m.

TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23:

Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 67.9%