Hello everyone. Today, I’d like to discuss TQQQ an ETF and share some of my views regarding its future trajectory. The market has been quite volatile recently; however, I believe TQQQ holds significant potential for a major breakout in the near future.

First and foremost, TQQQ is a triple leveraged ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index. This means that when the Nasdaq 100 rises, TQQQ’s gains are amplified threefold. Consequently, when market conditions are favorable, TQQQ has the capacity to generate substantial returns for investors.

Recently, we have witnessed a robust rebound in technology stocks particularly among companies operating in sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and electric vehicles (EVs). The sustained innovation and growth momentum within these industries have laid a solid foundation for the steady upward trajectory of the Nasdaq 100. As such, I believe TQQQ has the potential to experience a significant surge over the coming months.

Secondly, market concerns regarding inflation appear to be subsiding, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may gradually begin to ease developments that bode well for the stock market. When investors feel optimistic about the economic outlook, they are typically more inclined to invest in high-risk, high reward assets; TQQQ fits this profile perfectly.

Of course, investing in TQQQ carries inherent risks; specifically, during market downturns, the effects of leverage can result in amplified losses. Therefore, I strongly advise everyone to conduct their own thorough risk assessment before investing. Furthermore, consider diversifying your portfolio rather than allocating your entire capital into a single ETF.

In summary, I remain optimistic about the future performance of TQQQ. If you have any thoughts or opinions on this topic, please feel free to join the discussion in the comments section below! Let’s share insights and seize investment opportunities together!

Been following this sub and r/TQQQ for a while, and see the most sophisticated folks on the investing subs here. I’ve been playing (so far successfully) with TQQQ and SPXL, both direct and short-term options (I know, but couldn’t help myself) but want to cut that out and get into a more systematic strategy long term.

I know enough I think about the research. 200-day SMA seems to have worked well historically but is getting killed in the taco world we live in. 6 or 9 sig seem to have massive upside but too risky for me.

I decided on a strategy where I’ve initiated 50/50 TQQQ/QQQ and will rebalance to par whenever the spread is 15% between them (underlying as denominator), both up and down. This should capture some of the buy-low-sell-high of 9sig without taking on so much risk, avoid the opportunity losses from abrupt market upswings of 200SMA after signal says sell (buy high sell low), and keep me in the market with all available funds at my disposal. Better than only holding QLD I think given the rebalancing, even if there will be more volatility drag.

Thoughts? Anyone backtested this type of strategy? Please feel free to crucify it with reasoned thought or analysis. I’m relatively new to this. As an aside, I’m implementing the same strategy with SPXL and AVNM, my proxy for VXUS. Same idea but gives me int’l exposure in this part of my port.

EDIT: I’m doing this in my 401k so tax drag isn’t a concern. Also, to reemphasize, the rebalancing strategy is the key to this in my mind over just holding QLD.

I am diving into the 9sig strategy, and seeing some fascinating results when changing the parameter

https://preview.redd.it/fc1kpueied2h1.png?width=914&format=png&auto=webp&s=531790826a6c147df32c941c22e87e749c8724cf

With above parameters being default for 9sig, I've run simulations on the synthesised data in order to find what was the optimal growth line.
And, surprise it's 9% .

https://preview.redd.it/sai7ffooed2h1.png?width=474&format=png&auto=webp&s=b17b490b8bd52eb2c9a9ba0617034bab841d10ae

With 100k invested in 1938 - you'd get the most with 9% target line

But it's not that simple, strangely if you start with 80/20 cash/TQQQ allocation, then 13% becomes the optimal growth target

https://preview.redd.it/4n1gj6fxed2h1.png?width=1168&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f931f5ce2e2763fd74d35b1a4794adfabe6eab3

The optimal growth target also seems to be dependent on parked cash interest.

In my case, parked cash pays up to 9% yearly interest, when parked for a quarter and in that case, 5% target becomes the most optimal

https://preview.redd.it/t1wy5jmyfd2h1.png?width=1158&format=png&auto=webp&s=358b01067e505832d9ae6b29160db2d9f7dff0fe

TQQQ was introduced in 2010, what if we have followed 9sig from that point?

https://preview.redd.it/xpw80dhkfd2h1.png?width=2668&format=png&auto=webp&s=47f224f3253c3ff2ef16db076788e061f8971a67

We'd have insane gains, but we'd still not beat buy & hold

But by only changing the target from 9% to 13%

We would beat the buy-hold most of them time in history, while keeping lower drawdown rate

https://preview.redd.it/59eys9h4ed2h1.png?width=2664&format=png&auto=webp&s=05e61a95cc2ce572a2c1576e2a4d0a0fd1b693fa

I am yet to fully explore other parameter variations, but wanted to share my findings early

It’s Taco Tuesday but unfortunately the only thing on the menu is NACHOS. Not a chance Hormuz opens soon.

- The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.6%–4.7%.
- 30-year Treasury yield is above 5.1%.
- The average 30-year mortgage rate is around 6.6%.
-CPI inflation is running around 3.8% year-over-year.
- National average gasoline prices are around $4.53 per gallon.
- Crude oil prices are near $110 per barrel.
- Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates elevated.
- motor oil shortages starting
- nobody asked Trump to call off the attack that was supposed to happen today. He did it because the pentagon assessed that Iran is way more prepared

The only thing that is back is inflation, don’t forget to thank Trump!

And things are continuing to get worse, TQQQ to 10$ in Q3!!!

They ever figure it out? Some math guy from Russia everyone thought back in 2018/19.

Anyone Hedging with their Runner TQQQ,SOXL,UPRO,TECL... here anymore? longs... QMHNX, CTA, DBMF,KMLM, BTAL(SUCKS!) shorts... Cons Discr., Retail, Small caps, E'mkts, Bio...?

To anyone that's still holding, even with decent strategies, how do you assure yourself it's fine even if it might draw down hard?

I'm beating myself for having considered selling off at 79 even though QQQ only dropped 2%.

I have been through excruciating stress for hard drawdowns, I just wanna know how most people, successful or not, deal with that stress.

Bear people shall cash in but I can only suppose it will be short whiled.

You have a normal paying job.between these 3 strategies which one you would choose for tqqq?

Start of the year you have 3k$

Option 1: buy it and every time you got 10-20% profit you take only the profit to your pocket. So every time you tke profit you actually update your position where you took it abd you wait for again 10-20% all time high. lets say that you calculate your tax and make it stay in the corner and the rest is yours but also you spare amount that is 15% of your initial capital(3k$) as a protection of inflation. Every year you update your capital and go on.

Option 2: dive it for 6 pieces initial is same like option 1 but just using 1$k. If tqqq decreases 15 min 200sma you buy and sell at the last all time high. If again decreses you buy at 1h 200sma and sell at last ath and it goes like same in 4h and daily 200sma. Same profit taking, tax and inflation protection calculation every year done like option 1.

Option 3: same like option 2 but you change the selling point from ath to lower time frames buying point. For example 4h 200sma buy spot sell at 1h 200sma buy.

The reason of these options is 1 is more profitable but aggressive, 2 is more protective and 3 is the most protective against mini or big crisis. Lower risk lower return of course but if crisis is bigger, starting to getting profit gets earlier. Hence if tqqq drops 10 percent then increases 10% there is a huge 9% difference with the tqqq gain and snp500.

(Sorry for ia, i'm bad at english and presentation)

I tested how Nasdaq 100 performance changed across different U.S. CPI regimes.

The goal was simple:

Can inflation be used as a macro risk filter for Nasdaq exposure, especially when using leverage through something like TQQQ?

Method

• Nasdaq 100 data since 1985
• U.S. CPI used with a 1-month lag
• Dot-com bubble period excluded: 1997–2002
• CPI thresholds tested: 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%
• Compared two regimes:

1. Invested only when CPI was above the threshold
2. Invested only when CPI was below or equal to the threshold

1. Annualized returns

CPI threshold	CPI > threshold	CPI <= threshold
2%	+12.45%	+27.00%
3%	+8.71%	+21.84%
4%	-2.53%	+21.98%
5%	+4.06%	+17.95%

For comparison, the unfiltered Nasdaq 100 annualized return was around +16.67%.

The pattern is pretty clear: lower-inflation regimes produced much stronger annualized returns.

2. Number of months

This part is important because total return depends on two things:

• the average return
• the number of months actually invested

A regime can have a lower annualized return but still produce a higher total return if it includes many more invested months.

CPI threshold	Months CPI > threshold	Months CPI <= threshold
2%	288	125
3%	157	256
4%	82	331
5%	36	377

This explains why the CPI > 2% regime has a higher total return than the CPI <= 2% regime, even though its annualized return is much lower. It was simply invested for far more months.

3. Max drawdowns

This is the most important part for leveraged exposure.

CPI threshold	CPI > threshold	CPI <= threshold
2%	-52.02%	-15.73%
3%	-58.51%	-17.30%
4%	-55.79%	-17.30%
5%	-35.99%	-42.15%

For comparison, the unfiltered Nasdaq 100 max drawdown was around -50.11%.

The key point is not just that returns are weaker when inflation is high.

The bigger issue is that drawdowns become much deeper.

For TQQQ, this matters a lot because a -50% to -60% Nasdaq 100 drawdown can be devastating when amplified by daily 3x leverage.

4. Total return

CPI threshold	CPI > threshold	CPI <= threshold
2%	+1,572.80%	+1,105.51%
3%	+198.13%	+6,664.10%
4%	-16.05%	+23,919.90%
5%	+12.68%	+17,795.92%

To me, the 3%–4% CPI zone is where the signal becomes interesting.

Above 3%, performance weakens a lot.

Above 4%, the risk of large drawdowns becomes hard to ignore.

My interpretation

The data suggests that high-inflation regimes have historically been a much worse environment for Nasdaq 100 exposure.

For normal Nasdaq exposure, this may simply mean being more cautious.

For TQQQ, the implication is more important.

A possible approach could be:

• CPI below 3% = full TQQQ exposure allowed
• CPI around 3%–4% = reduce leverage
• CPI above 4% = avoid being fully exposed to TQQQ
• During high inflation = switch from TQQQ to normal Nasdaq exposure, like QQQ / NDX
• After a major drawdown = gradually rebuild TQQQ exposure at better prices

So instead of holding TQQQ through every macro regime, the idea would be:

TQQQ in favorable inflation regimes
QQQ / NDX when inflation risk rises
TQQQ again after major drawdowns

The goal is not to completely leave the Nasdaq during inflationary periods.

The goal is to avoid holding full 3x leverage during the regimes where historical drawdowns were the most destructive.

Main takeaway

The 3%–4% CPI area may be a useful warning zone for leveraged Nasdaq exposure.

Above 3%, Nasdaq 100 returns were much weaker.

Above 4%, drawdown risk was historically very high.

For TQQQ, this could support a strategy of reducing leverage during high-inflation regimes, staying exposed through QQQ / NDX instead, and rebuilding TQQQ after large corrections.

What is the effect of a moderate level of inflation on the performance of TQQQ of a long period of time? In theory, if there is price inflation, that price inflation will be passed on in terms of higher prices for goods and services. So monetary price inflation should eventually be reflected in higher corporate
profits (in devalued dollars). I suspect that this type of inflation should be beneficial TQQQ over time, even though the price of swaps purchased by the sponsor of TQQQ are correlated to the price of short term Treasuries (I think).

Release the Dogs

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CodeFather82