u/bumbeishvili

Most of SMA strategies I've seen, were counting dips as crashes and selling TQQQ more often than needed and hurting the performance.

This is the detection I am considering to run, it mostly avoids dips, has fewer trades and still detects all of the important crashes.

The rule is: Exit to cash when 250 days median price is 30% above current TQQQ price, only if median line slope is climbing less than 20% year (not a strong trend) and only after 10 days of sitting below line (persistent)

On the graph, this rule appears as blue line and you are supposed to sell, when TQQQ price drops below it.

I am curious what filters are you using and happy to manually run calculations and compare the performance of yours against this

With me exploring overfit strategies between (2010-2025) and trying to extract simplest possible patterns and the consistent pattern that emerged is that it's better to catch upside than to get out of the market because of the fear of bear.

This only covers 2010-2026 era and this assumption completely fails for the era bellow 2010 (like buy-hold does).

So with this quantified, this is the shortest rule I could find:

Sell TQQQ, when price is 55% above 250 days rolling median, buy it otherwise

Between 2010-2026 this rule trades 140 times, most of the trades are placed during recoveries

Link in the comments

Sell TQQQ, when SSO is 20% above SMA150, keep buying and holding TQQQ otherwise

Another interesting simulation I've implemented.

Lets you run scenarios, where you can choose where you park your assets when running 9sig strategy.

Looks like cash is the best asset in long term (after 1952)

Cash is also best asset to park after 1990 (35-50% difference)

Cash still wins if we calculate after 2002 (5-7% difference between max and min)

And parking assets in QLD while following 9sig wins after 2010, it's less than 12-15% difference though (over 16 years of period) - so it does not matter much in the end :/

I feel like I am starting to post too often in this sub, but want to share additional findings with you.

With 10k$ initial entry and 1k$ monthly addition, this is what your historical return/chances looks like when buying and holding TQQQ

Median amount is 300k$ - (we are at 1.16 million USD currently - 2017-2026 period)

Worst year would be 1993 for entry - (but in 1999 you'd have 6 million USD, I'd surely deleverage if I reached that)

Best year entry would be 1990 (so you can get out at the peak of dotcom bubble)

Bar chart shows median earnings of the best and worst 10 year periods - distributed as deciles. So if you happen to be in the best 10% of 10 year periods (2010-2019, 2011-2020, 2012-2021, 1989-1998, 1990-1999) - your median earnings would be 2.3 million USD

I will personally really start worrying about bubble burst if we end up in that 10% area

I've added new leveraged ETF in the simulator, SSO, QLD, SPLX

QLD seems to win in long term buy-hold

Same rules as 9sig, but underlaying ETF is QQQ5 instead of TQQQ and you target 15% growth, instead of 9%.

And it has insane gains compared to just buying and holding (either TQQQ or QQQ5), with 54.9% CAGR over last 16 years (mostly bull market)

The catch is that you'd have 99.5% drawdown in 2008 (yikes) and you'd have been wiped out in 2000-2002.

Compared to DCA, this one is more dependent on market trend. If you stomached the big bubble crash (like dot com), you might not achieve the target at all, and you even might still be at loss 25 years later, but if you happen to be in aggressive bull market period, then your chances of reaching a million earlier are significantly better than that with of DCA.

Average - 7-8 years.

Best - 2 years (2 years before dot com crash).

Worst - 29 years and counting (invested during the peak of dot com bubble).

Another interesting simulation I run on synthetic TQQQ data, going back to 1938.

If you were investing 1k monthly, on average you would need 11-12 years to reach one million by buying and holding TQQQ.

Best - 4 years (just before dot com bubble).

Worst - 18 years (just after dot com bubble).

In the future if we see it to come down to 6-7 years, I think that's when we will know we are nearing to the big crash

Here is a comprehensive visual Heatmap you will ever need when you have a question about long term tqqq

It shows, if you have invested 1000$, how much you'd have on each year (first column) after certain years of holding (first row)

Notice the lasting effect 1974, 2001, 2008 had

You would still be at loss in 2026 if you have invested 27 years ago

Update:

There were multiple remarks, addressing them here:

1. Image is blurry - download high quality version here
2. Color compare against qqq - Link to interactive version with qqq comparison

I've integrated Dewalt box with 4500lb winch and made an adapter for it to run on dewalt batteries.

In the back it has a hitch connector, so it acts as a truly portable winch which I csn take anywhere.

What do you think of it?