u/Able_Show_8560

Unfortunately yes, it was yet another red day for ORCL squad. However, I saw a few big positivse today:

1. Although the stock had a big morning dump to the 137ish level, it was able to bounce hard and recapture 140. This is HUGE and means there are a lot of buyers at support on this name. Long lower wick on the daily candle. Positive RSI divergence on the daily chart and MACD starting to flatten out (same w/ 8EMA). Also was another BIG volume day, almost 50m common stock traded. There's been a notable volume increase last week or so, very likely accumulation.

2. Furthermore, the market took a big afternoon dump based on war news. the QQQ and MSFT and many names dropped a ton from their intraday highs. ORCL was notably quite strong, and really only dropped from like 142 to 140.50.

3. Based on options scanners there was some big bull flow that came in today for ORCL. $2.5M into end of july 147c, and I think there was others. Flow isn't a big indicator but tbh this is more recent big flow that I've seen lately.

Hard to say what the next few days will hold given the macro backdrop is looking worse and worse (semis looking toppy, war news back etc.). but it really does look like ORCL could be carving out something of a bottom

Any clue when set times are released? Ready to get my heart broken with Friday headliners

Again, we are red today and back to 140. It honestly feels like big funds have been dumping this name for weeks now. It seems if memory and semis sell off, we sell off. If software sells off, we’ll sell off.

We got a lil bounce today but not much. It APPEARS the stock may be forming something of a bottom/support level around 138-142 range. We REALLY need to see that hold this week. If we can be green again tomorrow, there's a decent chance recent lows were established last week

Looking at the price action of Oracle stock past few weeks, I don’t see any other similar stocks trading in sympathy or in tandem with it. For example, it hasn’t bounced with IGV nor MSFT off their lows, and similarly it isn’t following semis nor neoclouds like nbis or crwv in any real way….

Is this because of the equity raise announced at ER? I.e the company itself is selling to raise equity?

Nearly up 1% now after hours ON VOLUME! I dont see any news?! anyone see any reason for the giga pump?

October 400c at 20.50, 67 cons. lets ride

I see no news, all I see if my MSFT calls are back in the gutter yet again. Is this shit going lower?

In my opinion, the Microsoft board must force a change in direction, and fast. In my eyes, there's really two options:

1. Get a new CEO. I think many people haven't loved what the current CEO has done recently. This would help boost moral and the share price to get a fresh mind at the helm.

2. Reduce capex - obviously based on MU earnings, this is an obvious one. Hyperscalers are looking like money pits willing to pay any price right now. If MSFT was the first to do this, I could see other MAGs following

This stock is headed to $300 soon. Co pilot is a failure, openAI is sketchy and very unprofitable, and general SAAS seats are dwindling due to AI downsizing. What's the bull case here? Chart also look really bad on daily weekly and monthly timeframes. Big volume selling for two weeks now. QQQ up huge on the year and maybe double topping. We think MSFT gonna go up when semis and the Qs inevitably correct? We've already seen this not happen. Last few weeks when SOXX pulled back, money flowed into consumer staples and healtchare. SAAS still tanked.

I'm not even sure what catalyst could save MSFT or SAAS at this point. To me, MSFT is now in that value trap territory, similar to NKE or PYPL in that sense. P/E ratio is low, sure! But the street also knows that growth is likely to slow for this dinosaur.

Been looking at RXRX again and I think it’s one of the cleaner “AI application” plays if money starts rotating out of pure AI hardware / semis and into companies actually using AI in a vertical with proprietary data.

Not trying to make this sound like some guaranteed squeeze. It’s still biotech, it burns cash, and clinical readouts can wreck you. But the setup is pretty asymmetric imo.

Why I’m watching it:

RXRX is basically an AI drug discovery / TechBio company. The simple thesis is that everyone has been chasing AI hardware for the last 18 months. NVDA, semis, power, data centers, etc. At some point the market starts asking: “okay, who actually uses all this compute to create something valuable?”

Bio is one of the more obvious answers. Drug discovery is expensive, slow, and failure-prone. If AI actually helps map biology, identify targets, design molecules, or speed up trial decisions, the upside is massive. That doesn’t mean RXRX wins automatically, but it does mean the narrative is very easy for the market to understand if the tape starts rewarding AI applications.

Squeeze angle:

This is where it gets interesting.

Latest short interest I saw was around 184M shares short, roughly 38% of float, with days to cover around 13+. That is not a tiny short base. That is a lot of people leaning the same direction.

On top of that, call activity picked up recently. MarketBeat flagged a day where around 50k calls traded, close to 300% above normal call volume. Call OI is also meaningful, though I wouldn’t overstate it as some automatic gamma squeeze. It’s more like: the ingredients are there if volume shows up.

So the setup is basically:

• heavily shorted stock
• low-ish share price, easy for retail to understand
• AI + biotech narrative
• upcoming pipeline / regulatory catalysts
• recent call buying
• still far below prior highs

That’s enough for me to at least have it on watch.

Catalysts / actual business stuff:

The company has multiple shots on goal. The ones I’m watching:

REC-4881: potential regulatory update expected in 2H26. They already showed Phase 2 proof-of-concept data in FAP, including meaningful polyp burden reduction. Any clarity on registrational path could matter.

REC-1245: additional Phase 1 dose escalation data expected in 2H26. Early safety/PK looked clean enough so far, and it’s one of the programs tied directly to the platform story.

REC-7735 / REC-102: data-driven go/no-go decision on Phase 1 initiation expected in 2H26.

Partnered programs: Sanofi/Roche/Genentech stuff is important because the market needs validation that this isn’t just “AI biotech vibes.” If partnered milestones keep coming, the story gets more credible.

They also said they have runway into early 2028 without additional financing, which matters because the obvious bear case on small/mid biotech is always dilution.

Bear case, because this isn’t free money:

• Revenue is tiny and lumpy because a lot of it is collaboration/milestone based.
• They are still losing a lot of money.
• Biotech catalysts are binary.
• Short interest can stay high for a long time.
• “AI drug discovery” has been hyped before and the market may demand real clinical proof, not just platform language.
• Insiders have sold some shares, which bears will point to.

So yeah, this is not “all in and pray.” But I do think RXRX has one of the better setups for a squeeze-style move if the AI trade broadens from hardware into application-layer names.

For me, the trade is less “this is definitely squeezing tomorrow” and more:

If AI bio catches a bid + RXRX gets positive catalyst momentum + call volume keeps building, shorts are crowded enough that this can move stupid fast.

Watching volume, call flow, and whether it can start reclaiming key moving averages / recent highs. If it starts doing that while the AI app narrative is hot, I don’t think shorts are going to be comfortable here.

Position: Jan 27 3.5c

Not financial advice. It’s biotech, don’t be dumb with size.

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There's a number of services that appear to offer this, but does anyone have a recommendation? I dont really even know where to start.