r/stocks

I'm talking about a riot, actual outrage. Every day I see people scream over minor culture war nonsense, but where is the outrage over open corruption? I'm neither left nor right-wing, and I'm talking about blatant stuff like insider trading like in the case of Nancy Pelosi or the president doing something that's clearly against the law.

A physician colleague of mine moved to the US to practice medicine. His parents sent him some funds from abroad to help settle in and cover training expenses. Like most normal people, he had no idea what IRS form 3520 (foreign gift reporting) was. Because the money touched his personal account, the IRS hit him with massive automatic penalties even though foreign gifts have $0 in US tax liability. Now an essential worker is spending thousands on attorneys just to fight an innocent paperwork oversight.

Miss one obscure disclosure form on non-taxable family money, and the government tries to bankrupt you. But sit in Congress and trade millions on privileged information? Business as usual. Like are we living in a third world country or what?

As we all know by now Bessent announced that the US treasury will issue t-bills to take US long dated treasuries off the market in order to cap yields on the 10yr and 30yr treasury. This is financial repression on a small scale that is designed to act as a bridge until polices are put in place for the REAL FINANCIAL REPRESSION. As we all can see, yields are already rising again, so what Bessent did wasn’t nearly good enough.

So what next? What will financial repression be?

The government will create polices that force banks and insurers to hold MORE US treasuries in order to cap yields. So basically instead of the Fed buying US treasuries to cap yields the government will force banks and insurers to buy these US treasuries to cap yields. Why does this instead of QE? QE is off the table because inflation is still high. QE will only worsen inflation. Now what the Fed will do is LOWER RATES below the rate of inflation. The reason all of this has to be done is because there’s no way the US government can service its debt if yields are above 5%. That would result in a DEATH SPIRAL of the government needing to issue more and more debt just to pay its interest obligations. So financial repression is essentially inflating the debt away.

Now the good news. What assets benefit the most during financial repression? Stocks but specifically high growth stocks, AI stocks, big tech stocks. Assets like gold and bitcoin will also do well since financial repression devalues the currency and makes bonds unattractive.

This is currently underway now. The US government mathematically has no choice and there is no political appetite to reduce debt or deficits through either tax increases, austerity or a combination of both.

On August 19 Asia-Pacific time, SK Hynix (SKHY)'s 2026 wage negotiations, which had previously reached a deadlock over a record bonus allocation scheme, saw a key turning point. According to South Korean media reports, the union and management have reached a tentative agreement, bringing a temporary end to the weeks-long tug-of-war.

Key Points

• Tentative Agreement: SK Hynix union and management reached a tentative deal on August 19, ending weeks of deadlock over 2026 wage and bonus allocation schemes.
• Bonus Allocation System: Under the established system, 10% of annual operating profit funds performance bonuses without a previous payout cap, potentially yielding an average performance bonus of 700 million to 800 million Korean won per employee based on projected operating profits of 250 trillion to 270 trillion Korean won.
• Core Dispute: Union backlash occurred after management proposed paying part of the record bonuses in locked-up stock and adjusting payouts during loss-making years, which workers felt undermined prior commitments.
• Market Impact: The resolution temporarily relieves operational disruption concerns, though the dispute highlights tension between volatile semiconductor cycles and worker demands for immediate cash payouts.

I heard this somewhere on the internet and I can't wrap my head around it -

"A lot of data center buildouts are now getting paused, and these companies that are financing the buildouts have primarily financed them through debt. It's so much debt that it's kind of crowding out the US Treasury.

The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, is signaling that he will step in to calm down the Treasury market, but I think it's pretty important to understand the loop here.

When you build something big, you have to borrow. You sell a bond! The US government funds itself this way through bonds, and it's currently spending a whole lot more than it's taking in. At the same time that the US government desperately needs money, tech companies also desperately need money. They're selling IOUs hundreds of billions of dollars of them this year.

The main reason that bonds are selling off is because people are just worried about the direction that the United States is headed. It does not seem like the debt is going to be under control anytime soon.

So people are like, "Hey man, it just doesn't seem like you're very responsible. Like, why would we keep on giving you more money?"

There's also inflationary pressure, deficit pressure, and the AI companies are starting to look a bit worrying as well. A lot of people don't like data centers. They historically don't like things like that. I do think AI has been a mass marketing failure; I think it could have been a lot different.

And a lot of Americans agree. A year ago, Americans were split roughly 50/50 on having a data center built near them. Today, about three-quarters are opposed, and most of them are strongly opposed. It's the only thing that Americans seem to agree on.

So the entire loop here is: the AI companies got a little too excited, and they started borrowing a ton of money to try and build out data centers to meet all of the demand that was going to come from AI. So they start borrowing more and more and more. They end up crowding out the US government. The US government is already facing some headwinds due to Fed Chair Waller not being very open about forward guidance, as well as inflationary pressures due to the war in Iran and a budget deficit that just can't seem to close ever.

So all of a sudden, across the board, yields are hitting multi-decade highs, and then the whole bond market gets kind of nervous. What's happening in the bond market is both a function of what's happening with AI buildouts (and what's not being built) as well as the decisions of the US government to not be fiscally responsible.

The bond market is known for being the boss and took down Liz Truss before a head of lettuce rotted. So the bond market does seem to be in charge right now, and it is certainly signaling that it is not happy about what's unfolding."

TLDR: A lot of things happening in the market but No One Knows what's going to Happen!! So, certainly very interesting time ahead..

Not trying to be an alarmist but just stating the facts. Last month Bessent had to intervene to keep the Japanese Yen from plunging LOWER. Now he’s intervening to try to stop the 10yr and 30yr bond yields from continuing to rise to decade level highs. The fact that none of this has stopped bond yields from continuing to rise indicates the SEVERITY of the structural problems.

What is the structural problem? TOO MUCH DEBT in the system and NOT ENOUGH BUYERS.

In the past the Japanese were MAJOR buyers of US debt. In fact, they were ANCHOR to the entire financial system the past THREE DECADES. This regime has now CHANGED with Japanese bond yields now rivaling foreign bond yields. The Japanese no longer have to buy foreign debt. This is a HUGE problem for the US at exactly the wrong time. Why the wrong time? Because this is happening at a time of RECORD DEBT AND DEFICITS in the US as well as globally. It also comes at a time of record corporate debt issuance to fund AI CapEx. The problem is too big to patch up the way Bessent has tried.

So what happens now? In my opinion there are only TWO OUTCOMES.

Outcome 1: The US government does nothing. Bond yields become untethered and settle at levels that strangle the economy, exposing bad businesses/zombie companies, resulting in an economic crash that plunges into a major recession.

Outcome 2: The Fed steps in and replaces Japan as the buyers of long bonds to bring down yields or keep them controlled. This is essentially QE and with inflation already at 3.4%, inflation will only surge higher, potentially to hyperinflation. The US dollar could also end up being debased.

Outcome 3: The US government starts austerity to rein in its debt, cut deficits. This will stop yields from climbing but will be wildly unpopular as many Americans will have entitlements cut and the economy will fall into recession as much of GDP is tied to government spending.

Outcome 2 is the likely outcome which is why gold rallied yesterday. The US government doesn’t have the political will to cut budgets, reduce debt and deficits.

WMT 9.12% decrease; red down pointing triangle reported its smallest sales gain in more than six years as some Americans continue to spend cautiously especially when shopping at the retailer’s physical stores.

On Thursday, Walmart said U.S. comparable sales, those from store and digital channels operating for the past 12 months, rose 2.6%. That is the smallest quarterly increase the retailer has reported since 2020. The number was hurt by new pharmacy-pricing regulations, without which Walmart would have had a 3.4% lift, the company said.

https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/warlmart-earnings-q2-2026-wmt-stock-122b69ee

Terrible look for bottom half of the K and US consumers

The stock has fallen pretty hard from the highs. Is this mainly a valuation reset, or are there real problems with the company that the market is pricing in?

For those following $ASTS closely, what’s your honest take on the company right now? I’m trying to understand what people who’ve really dug into it think. I’m also hearing Spacex might prevent asts from sending satellites in the future so all I’m hearing is negative stuff right now even though the company has crazy potential.

I’ve seen people on ASTS subreddit themselves shitting on it so I don’t know what’s going on. What other companies are the competitors and how well are they doing?

What do you think about the company right now? is it bullish or bearish?

Long term treasury yields spiked to multi decade highs recently. This appears to have finally prompted a response from the treasury yesterday. Bessent managed to drop the 10y year by 0.1% (a significant 1 day move for the 10y) only to have the move largely reverse today.

Bessent has signaled he will regularly buy long term treasuries. Though he claims the action has nothing to do with interest rates being high, buying treasuries does ultimately put pressure on interest rates.

I don’t believe for a second the decision to purchase treasuries is unrelated to the spike in yields.

At the same time, Bessent talks about wanting to maintain high growth, stating that the country can ‘grow its way out of debt’. High growth is more achievable if the fed cuts rates, which would lower shorter term yields. Yet the inflationary pressure would push longer term yields even higher, which I’m sure Bessent is fully aware of.

So I’m confused about the agenda. Bessent seems to want lower long term yields but will support inflationary policies (in an already high inflation environment thanks to uncontrolled government borrowing) that ultimately raise long term yields (and put pressure on the US dollar). What is he trying to achieve and is it even possible if he’s supporting conflicting actions?

Or is it possible he’s not really sure what he’s doing?

As I'm sure a lot of people have seen, Walmart has been tanking today after earnings. I was already down like 7% before earnings and thought for sure I would be able to recover. Now I'm down another 10%. I had a lot of conviction that Walmart would thrive while consumers have less money from inflation because they have the cheapest necessities.

Now I can't decide if I should DCA after the tanking to try and recover, or if that will just result in throwing money into a sinking ship. They might recover, but will they recover faster than the sp500 will grow?

I've sold other similar positions, just for them to gain 20% in 2 weeks after selling, so I thought I would hold onto Walmart, and now I wish I sold it instead.

This market makes no sense. I guess that's why they say the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.

This company is committed to making sure investors get paid. They just do business different in Korea.

Per the company the intrinsic value "is not fully reflected in its current stock price."

-$29 Billion Buyback Commitment, starts 8/20

-Will allocate more than half the free cash flow generated between 2025 and 2027 to shareholder returns

-Special dividends are under consideration per the company, with detail due alongside third-quarter earnings.

-Net cash stood at roughly 69 trillion won ($49.36 billion) at the end of the second quarter.

-Structural memory demand will outpace production capability through 2027, memory shortage should be worse in 2027.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sk-hynix-ceo-sees-worst-ever-memory-supply-shortage-2027-says-demand-outstrip-2026-07-10/

-For the foreseeable future SK Hynix will be taking in enormous amounts of cash. Companies in the Dot Com era, never had this issue.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

My personal prediction is the Korean market will reach a new all time high this year, SK Hynix will be a primary driver.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

No firm on wall street has a price target under $200

Wolfe Research-$200

Stifel-$240

Rosenblatt-$320

RBC Capital Mkts-$200

Needham-$300

Cantor Fitzgerald-$300

UBS-$204

Barclays-$330

Truly groundbreaking stuff

https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/moderna-merck-vaccine-succeeds-in-preventing-melanoma-from-returning-540e9e18

“An experimental mRNA-based vaccine succeeded in preventing cancer from coming back or spreading in a study of high-risk melanoma patients, Moderna and its partner Merck said Wednesday, paving the way for a potentially new life-extending treatment for the thousands of people diagnosed with the deadly skin cancer each year.”

MRNA up 70% as of this post, MRK up 10%

So basically the US Treasury Department is using short dated T-bills to buy long dated US bonds in order to take the pressure off the 10yr and 30yr bond yields. This signals a STRUCTURAL PROBLEM in the debt markets and is only a BAND-AID to the problem. Also, essentially the US government has now replaced long term debt with more short dated debt that needs to be replaced more often. If short term bond rates rise because of higher inflation expectations then now the US government is payer HIGHER INTEREST on its short term debt.

This only buys time in my opinion and delays the inevitable. The timing of this change is starting Sept 9 and lasting until Nov 4. Hmmm, that just so happens to election time. So it seems Bessent is trying to delay a market until AFTER THE ELECTION…

I’m about a few years into learning to invest in stocks. I’ve been doing okay so far. This past year I have been focused on dividend paying stocks. My goal is to have a variety of dividend stocks to generate passive income. I reinvest all my dividends now. Even if the dividend pay is small, I want a lot of them so that it all adds up. I’m asking for advice on which stocks are best to purchase shares. I have a few like DLR, KO, JNJ to name a few. It’s excited to see my yearly projected dividend amount increase even if it’s only a dollar or two ☺️ Thanks in advance!

Memory stocks got absolutely smoked today and then I saw this.

SK Hynix is planning to buy back and cancel almost $29B worth of its own shares.

$29 billion.

They’re also saying more than half of cumulative FCF from 2025-27 is going back to shareholders.

I knew they were printing money from the memory boom but I didn’t expect a buyback anywhere near this big lol.

Especially after the stock just got whacked almost 10% in a day.

Whatever you think about memory being in a bubble or not, management clearly isn’t acting like they’re worried about running out of cash anytime soon.

Bank of America raised its price target on Figma from $30 to $33 while maintaining its Buy rating.
According to The Fly, BofA cited broader software multiple expansion and easing concerns around AI disruption as factors behind the higher target.
BofA reportedly did not change its underlying estimates or fundamental view on Figma, so this appears to be primarily a valuation/multiple adjustment rather than a change to its financial forecasts.
This follows the recent post-earnings analyst updates after Figma reported 48% YoY revenue growth and raised its full-year revenue guidance.

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Meta FWD PE today is at 16x. If we were to exclude loss from Metaverse money pit - stock is actually at 13-14x FWD PE.

META did 30% top line growth YoY. On Rev base of >200B.

Meanwhile you have speculative junk company like TTD trading at FWD PE of 16-18x. That's after the 70% collapse YTD for this stock. TTD grew sales 3% YoY on tiny rev base and their guidance is revenue decrease of 10-12% YoY for next quarter. And their SBC is almost 50% of their FCF. Lol. This is a company getting crushed by competition (from Amazon) and may not exist 5 yrs from now... and it is priced higher than Meta, a monopoly with top tier top line growth and moat as wide as pacific ocean.

So, today Meta is priced like a speculative junk stock. Wtf?