r/stocks

Strip it back: investors have put roughly ~$145B into Anthropic since 2021. It’s now reportedly targeting a $2T valuation at IPO, about 14x every dollar ever invested.

I know tech isn’t valued on capital raised. It’s valued on future earnings. But a big chunk of that ~$145B has already gone on losses and compute, so the $2T rests almost entirely on profits that don’t exist yet.

Revenue growth is impressive, but revenue alone doesn’t reward shareholders. If compute costs keep scaling with revenue, it doesn’t matter whether Anthropic makes $100B or $1T.

At a mature-tech multiple of ~25x earnings, $2T implies something like $80B of annual net profit. For context, that’s in the range of the most profitable companies in the world.

So my question: what does the path to that level of profit actually look like, and how long do investors wait for it?

**This post has nothing to do with Elon's politics. Purely business.

I own ASTS and can hold for 5+ years. But honestly I don’t fully understand how it stacks up against what SpaceX is doing.

I know AST has AT&T and Verizon as partners. How much protection does that actually give them? Is there room for both companies to make money or does SpaceX eventually squeeze AST out?

Be brutally honest. I want to hear the downside too.

Greetings, anyone here doing the big NFLX comeback run? I just bought 10 calls for 30 days out. I think it's way overdue for a 10% + pop at earnings. It had 5 straight days of gains, and then pulled back on Friday due to profit taking. People are talking about it going back over $100 a share on this run.

Any thoughts? It's also still hovering around all-time lows. Seems everyone on stocktwits was talking about it.

Any feedback is appreciated.

Ryan

The FT says OpenAI's annualized revenue is about $50B, not the ~$70B everyone was passing around. CNBC and CNN's follow-ups say it's gross vs net, not lost sales.. Accountants, please calm down.

Oracle fell 5.5% anyway, about $24B gone in a day over what's basically a footnote.

Except it isn't one for Oracle. OpenAI signed up last year to buy roughly $300B of computing from it over about five years, starting 2027. That's ~$60B a year from a customer bringing in $50B. Basically a $6k/month lease on a $5k/month salary, plus a promise the raise is coming.

The only Oracle insider who bought stock this year paid $139.35 on Sep 29. It closed at $135.69. Welcome to the club.

Counting problem, or the first real crack in the AI spending story?

No position. Just popcorn.

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme.

Some helpful day to day links, including news:

• Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
• Bloomberg market news
• StreetInsider news:
  • Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
  • Reuters aggregated - Global news

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Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports.

Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.

But growth stocks don't rely so much on EPS or revenue as long as they beat some other metric like subscriber count: Going from 1 million to 10 million subscribers means more revenue in the future.

Value stocks do rely on earnings reports, investors look for wall street expectations to be beaten on both EPS & revenue. You'll also find value stocks pay dividends, but never invest in a company solely for its dividend.

See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earnings

If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

Useful links:

• Investopedia page on fundamental analysis including Discounted Cash Flow analysis; see definition here and read their PDF on the topic.
• FINVIZ for fundamental data, charts, and aggregated news
• Earnings Whisper for earnings details

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

There was some recent news that would impact Microsoft ability to sponsor green card to many of its employees:

"The US government will not process any new or pending Permanent Labor Certification Program (PERM) applications from Microsoft or the seven other companies, Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling said during the same conference."

Among the chain effects that this could cause(such as hiring less foreigners), could its stock be impacted?

$SPCX has agreed to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide portfolio of 800 MHz low-band spectrum licenses, a move the company says will pave the way for Starlink to become a major mobile carrier in the U.S.

Elon Musk called it “the last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America.”

The plan is to combine satellites with a ground-based mobile network. The low-band airwaves would complement Starlink’s 2 GHz spectrum, helping improve indoor coverage and extend service into areas with weak or nonexistent cellular reception. That would put Starlink in more direct competition with AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.

Separately, the FCC approved a new constellation of 15,000 SpaceX satellites this week for direct-to-device mobile services, another step toward expanding Starlink’s ability to connect directly to phones.

The spectrum acquisition still requires FCC approval and other customary closing conditions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Source

This is the weekend edition of our stickied discussion thread. Discuss your trades / moves from last week and what you're planning on doing for the week ahead.

Some helpful links:

• Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
• Bloomberg market news
• StreetInsider news:
• Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
• Reuters aggregated - Global news

If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

After their updated guidance on investor day last week what’s not to love? 58% annualized revenue growth from now to 2030 at the midpoint 😮 And the reason I like the stock now is because NONE OF THIS IS PRICED IN. I say let the people keep talking about an AI bubble and I say they lack the fundamental understanding of what this all is: THE BIGGEST ARMS RACE IN HUMAN HISTORY!

Now listen, I like others stocks as well but in my opinion MRVL is at or the near the top for likely being a top performing investment from now to 2030. I’m talking 300%+ gains. The AI pessimism is actually healthy for a bull market also. Despite bond yields being at 20yr+ highs I continue to think AI stocks outperform dramatically. Bond yields have actually hurt the broader market though. Look at sectors outside of tech and many are languishing. People will not sell the huge growth happening in AI stocks to rotate into a bond with a 5% yield. Instead they sell stocks like PEP, HSY, etc with very low, unappealing growth.

Shares of Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other artificial intelligence names sank lower on Thursday after the market learned more details about OpenAI’s revenue.

OpenAI told investors that it hit roughly $50 billion in annualized revenue at the end of September, CNBC confirmed, lower than the the $68 billion figure that was widely reported late last month. A person familiar with the matter said the $68 billion figure included gross revenue from OpenAI’s partners, which helps investors make a more direct comparison with its chief rival, Anthropic.

The Financial Times was first to report the $50 billion figure.

OpenAI shared an update about its finances in an investor presentation, said the person, who asked not to be named in order to discuss the numbers. In addition to the $50 billion in annualized revenue, OpenAI touted 77% total run rate growth during its third quarter, as well as 107% run rate growth for its enterprise business during the same period, the person said.

The company is under pressure to justify its $852 billion valuation to investors as it gears up for what is widely expected to be a blockbuster IPO. OpenAI confidentially filed its prospectus with regulators in June, and executives have signaled that the company is eyeing a 2027 debut.

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme.

Some helpful day to day links, including news:

• Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
• Bloomberg market news
• StreetInsider news:
• Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
• Reuters aggregated - Global news

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Required info to start understanding options:

• Call option Investopedia video basically a call option allows you to buy 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to buy
• Put option Investopedia video a put option allows you to sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to sell
• Writing options switches the obligation to you and you'll be forced to buy someone else's shares (writing puts) or sell your shares (writing calls)

See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

Call option - Put option - Exercising an option - Strike price - ITM - OTM - ATM - Long options - Short options - Combo - Debit - Credit or Premium - Covered call - Naked - Debit call spread - Credit call spread - Strangle - Iron condor - Vertical debit spreads - Iron Fly

If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

Today, all three major market indices opened lower. There were many reasons for the market weakness, such as:

The 10-year Treasury yield broke through 5.3%, oil prices returned above $100, and the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes hinted at a possible future interest rate hike.

These factors all contributed to the market's weakness, but interestingly, the stock market didn't crash today. Instead, the indices rebounded from their morning lows, with a large influx of buyers entering the market.

So, I'm wondering today whether this reflects market resilience or if investors are waiting for the next catalyst before taking larger action.

Therefore, I find today's market performance somewhat perplexing.

What are your thoughts on today's market performance?

I have been searching like a mad man for relatively new companies that utilize AI at the core of their business models.

It is very clear that LLMs and all the associated hardware and infrastructure is the first big wave of AI.

I believe it’s just as clear that companies utilizing these LLMs at the core of their business is the next big wave. However, finding new companies that have been built from the ground up utilizing LLM technology at the core of their business is a little harder to find. After doing a few weeks of research here are the companies that meet this criteria and stand out to me:

Tempus ($TEM) - Utilizes artificial intelligence and large scale data to build precision medicine tools for healthcare and life sciences.

Ethos Technologies ($LIFE) - A digital life insurance and financial technology platform that simplifies how life insurance is bought, sold, and administered. Utilizing AI for underwriting and process efficiency.

Pattern Group ($Ptrn) - Utilizes AI as a global e-commerce accelerator that helps consumer brands grow, manage, and scale their online sales across global marketplaces

Aurora ($AUR) - Utilizes AI for automated long haul freight trucking. (Other smaller public companies that look even more promising)

Schrödinger ($SDGR) - Uses AI and simulates real world physics and chemistry to discover new drugs.

All 5 of these companies utilize AI at their core and provide huge improvements compared to their competitors who are not utilizing AI. The ground up approach is very important, because they do not need to pivot or fire employees like large legacy companies in similar fields.

Would love to hear about more companies from you guys that fit this criteria. Would also like to hear your thoughts on the companies I listed.

I have positions in 4 of these companies (and a small competitor to AUR) that I cannot mention on this sub because it’s a penny stock. I plan to add to my positions in the near future.

Not financial advice. Do your own research. Cheers.

I am trying to ensure I diversity a bit into opportunities that are not just AI driven. $GRAL stock price IMO is ahead of itself in short term b/c of a favorable FDA advisory committee outcome last month that looks like it will clear the path for FDA approval early 2027. But looking at the potential over 3-4 years - this company could be doing 10mm recurring tests in 2030 annually and 5X+ the current market cap.

• The Nancy Gardner Sewell Medicare Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Screening Coverage Act was signed into law this year and takes effect on January 1, 2028; and is set to allow for screening for anyone under 68 I believe. And, more importantly it allows for one test every year.
• This is the the best in class right now in MCED space and has run 100,000's of samples. They also have a head start in industry and building out infrastructure to allow for education and testing to the masses.
• they currently charge 995 per test, but b/c of the above law, Medicare will begin to cover prob by 2029 and allow ANNUAL screening. Even if price gets reduced to 500 - we can assume a profit of $200 to the company per test - 10mm*200 = $2B earnings number. Assuming 20X - $40B vs current market cap of $6B currently. It is noted the company has no debt and cash burn lasts it through into 2030 in current state.
• Other things to consider - Samsung made a $100mm investment last year into the company to allow for distribution rights throughout Asia, which I am not even considering. So, 10mm tests per year could easily prove exceptionally conservative
• As suggested, I think it is may have gotten ahead of itself in short term and may prove choppy for 2027....but not when I look out 3-4 years for reasons I just mentioned, it appears to be a strong investment opportunity. Another play if you are more skeptical is invest in ILMN as they own just over 7% of GRAL
• I welcome thoughts, but figured this could diversify my investments a bit.

I previously put $5000 on SNXX and my average cost was $34.4 roughly this was way back in June at all Time high, but now it has gone down due to the decay and I’ve lost about $3000 by now in the hopes of waiting for it to rise up.

If I do a dollar cost average today when the stock is down for SNXX at dollar 13, will I be able to exit ? I added 2k now and average price is $24

Should I pump more or not chase it?

Micron reported late last month and it was a record year. On the call Mehrotra said memory and storage should be tighter in 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026. The part everyone keeps posting is HBM. That revenue grew faster than the whole company, and most of their 2027 HBM is already agreed at higher prices. Most of the discussion I’ve seen since then has been around HBM, especially the growth there and how much of next year’s supply is already committed.

I went to use the same story on SNDK and then stopped. Sandisk doesn't sell HBM. It's NAND. Micron did say NAND stays supply constrained through 2028, so the shortage isn't only an HBM thing. It's still not the same product.

They report October 29. I've had both of them open on moomoo and I can't tell if "NAND stays tight" is the bull case, or if SNDK needs something those HBM deals don't give it. Are you treating these as the same trade, or not really?

$ENVX I’m trying to map out what could actually happen between now and the end of 2027. We still have the final smartphone qualification test, a potential production order, samples to a second OEM, the eyewear ramp, and the Korea defense capacity expansion expected around mid-2027.
They’ve brought in Vyvoda to run manufacturing and keep posting jobs in industrial engineering, equipment, production and defense customer support. Are they staffing up for a real ramp, or still trying to fix the bottlenecks?
What’s your realistic timeline for higher yield and UPH at Fab2, smartphone revenue, and the $183M defense pipeline turning into shipments? Which of those actually happens by the end of 2027? And where do you realistically see the stock price by then?