NVDA Price Action Before & After Earnings
I've graphed the NVDA price action normalized around earnings. Since 2024, we've only seen 3 positive moves the week after earnings (FY2024 Q4, FY2025 Q1, and FY2026 Q1).
Since we hit an ATH before earnings this time around I also pulled some data on 1 week return in cases where we hit an ATH prior to earnings.
| Earnings | Max pre-earnings close | Max pre-earnings intraday high | 1-week after return |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 Q4 - Feb 21, 2024 | 73.90 on Feb 14, 2024 | 74.61 on Feb 12, 2024 | +15.10% |
| FY2025 Q1 - May 22, 2024 | 95.39 on May 21, 2024 | 95.82 on May 16, 2024 | +20.93% |
| FY2025 Q3 - Nov 20, 2024 | 148.88 on Nov 7, 2024 | 149.77 on Nov 8, 2024 | -7.23% |
There were 2 positive cases, FY2024 Q4 & FY2025 Q1, and one negative case FY2025 Q3.
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Now our current setup is looking like this:
| Metric | Current May 2026 setup |
|---|---|
| Pre-window start close, May 6 | 207.83 |
| Latest close, May 18 | 222.32 |
| Pre-window max close | 235.74 on May 14 |
| Pre-window intraday high | 236.54 on May 14 |
| Start-to-latest move | +6.97% |
| Pullback from pre-earnings close high | -5.69% |
| Closing ATHs in window | May 11, 12, 13, 14 |
The closest mirror to this was FY2024 Q4 (Feb 21st 2024). FY2024 Q4 also hit a pre-earnings high about a week before earnings, then pulled back roughly 6% into earnings before ripping higher afterward.
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What this means overall for us:
This means nothing, it is merely an exercise of data analysis and pattern recognition. We can drill into earnings and definitely go lower. We can drill into earnings and then rip higher. I pray NVDA goes higher this time just because history has shown that this setup can result in a rip up but we can't predict the future. Best of luck to everyone holding here!