r/NVDA_Stock

Please use this thread to discuss what's on your mind, news/rumors on NVIDIA, related industries (but not limited to) semiconductor, gaming, etc if it's relevant to NVIDIA!

Please use this thread to discuss what's on your mind, news/rumors on NVIDIA, related industries (but not limited to) semiconductor, gaming, etc if it's relevant to NVIDIA!

"NVIDIA Vera easily remains the most performant and awesome ARM64 server processor I have ever tested. "

I keep coming back to the same question with NVIDIA: at what point does an incredible business become an expensive stock?

The latest numbers are honestly hard to argue with. NVIDIA did $96.2B in revenue in Q2 FY2027, up 106% year over year, while Data Center revenue hit $89B, up 117%. Gross margin was still 75%. Management is guiding for another $108B in revenue for Q3, even without assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China.

And the next leg of the story is already starting. Vera Rubin is ramping into production, and NVIDIA expects fiscal 2028 revenue to grow roughly 70% year over year. That is a pretty wild forecast for a company that is already enormous. Management also says supply, especially memory, could remain a bottleneck through FY2028.

Then there’s the $150B increase to the buyback authorization announced in September, bringing the remaining authorization to $235B through FY2028. That tells me management is pretty confident about future cash generation.

The stock is around $237 right now and recently pushed back to record highs, with a market cap around $5.7T. Depending on the data source and estimate period, NVDA is trading around the mid 20s on trailing earnings and roughly 20 to 25 times forward earnings. That sounds expensive in absolute terms, but it also looks surprisingly reasonable if NVIDIA can actually sustain anything close to the growth it's currently projecting.

That’s where I get stuck.

The bull case almost writes itself. AI spending is still accelerating, Rubin gives NVIDIA another major product cycle, CUDA and the broader software stack keep customers locked in, and demand is spreading beyond the traditional hyperscalers into AI labs, enterprises and sovereign AI projects.

But the bear case isn't really “NVIDIA is a bad company.” It's more about expectations.

At a $5T plus valuation, NVIDIA doesn't just need to keep growing. It needs to keep growing at a rate that makes the current valuation look cheap in hindsight.

What happens if AI infrastructure spending eventually normalizes? What if hyperscalers start getting more disciplined about returns on all this capex? What if custom accelerators from Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others take a bigger piece of the workload? And how much should we worry about margins falling as memory and other component costs rise?

NVIDIA itself expects gross margins to fall toward 71% to 72% in Q4 before recovering somewhat later. That's still an incredible margin for a semiconductor company, but it shows that even NVIDIA isn't immune to the economics of scaling this fast.

Personally, I'm still bullish on the business. I'm less convinced that the stock is automatically cheap just because earnings are growing so fast.

The interesting part is that both sides can be right. NVIDIA could become an even more dominant company over the next five years and the stock could still have periods of disappointing returns if expectations get too far ahead of reality.

So I'm curious where everyone lands on this.

At around $237 and a roughly $5.7T market cap, do you think NVDA is still reasonably valued based on the growth ahead, or has the market already priced in too much of the AI story?

And what do you think is the biggest thing that could actually break the NVIDIA bull case over the next 12 to 24 months?

Please use this thread to discuss what's on your mind, news/rumors on NVIDIA, related industries (but not limited to) semiconductor, gaming, etc if it's relevant to NVIDIA!

It's crazy that so many people still think Nvidia is just a chip company. Unfortunately, I think this kind of public sentiment that is delaying/stopping the data center buildout is a huge risk to Nvidia's stock price.

Here's a ChatGPT summary of the recurring themes in 500+ comments on Stephen Witt's NYT article about Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, following his Ezra Klein interview:

• Jensen understands hardware, but does he understand AI software? Many commenters argue that Huang's expertise in GPUs and computing infrastructure doesn't necessarily translate into understanding neural networks, emergent intelligence, or AI safety.
• Predictable components don't mean predictable AI. Critics argue that knowing every mathematical operation performed by a neural network doesn't mean you can predict or control the behavior of the entire system.
• Huang has an enormous financial conflict of interest. Nvidia profits from accelerating AI development, giving Huang strong incentives to minimize concerns about its risks.
• Not every problem is an engineering problem. Commenters criticize Huang's belief that virtually any challenge can be solved through engineering, arguing that AI also presents ethical, societal, and potentially uncontrollable risks.
• His confidence about AI safety is unconvincing. Many readers believe Huang dismisses existential risks without providing sufficient technical evidence that advanced AI can be reliably controlled.
• His relationship with Trump raises concerns. Commenters criticize Huang's apparent use of flattery and political influence to discourage AI regulation and advance Nvidia's business interests.
• The free market won't necessarily protect the public. Readers reject Huang's argument that profit incentives alone will ensure AI safety, pointing to the history of corporations prioritizing growth over public welfare.
• The Ezra Klein interview damaged Huang's credibility. Commenters describe his explanations as simplistic, evasive, or overconfident, particularly when discussing AI safety and the limits of engineering.
• A minority defend Huang: Supporters praise his technical expertise, optimism, and practical engineering perspective. Some consider existential AI fears exaggerated and argue that AI remains a controllable technology with enormous potential benefits.

Bottom line: The dominant criticism is that Huang is an exceptionally successful hardware executive whose financial interests and engineering worldview may lead him to underestimate AI risks. Many commenters question whether his expertise qualifies him to make sweeping assurances about AI software and safety. A minority defend his engineering perspective and believe AI risks are exaggerated.

We are finally here my fellow shareholders. It is very satisfying

Please use this thread to discuss what's on your mind, news/rumors on NVIDIA, related industries (but not limited to) semiconductor, gaming, etc if it's relevant to NVIDIA!