r/NVDA_Stock

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/even-at-5-trillion-nvidia-is-underappreciated-bdfd936c?st=VGQS5t&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Seaport Global Adjusts Price Target on Nvidia to $180 From $140, Maintains Sell Rating.

Was he asleep during the earnings conference call?

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NVIDIA did indeed just shake up the market with their latest earnings release by massively raising their quarterly cash dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share, alongside a massive $80 billion stock buyback authorization.

Don't "Pooh Pooh" this action, as it is significant, despite the after hours mute reaction, i.e., down $2.81 (-1.26%) in AHs. While a 25-cent quarterly payout ($1.00 annually) seems modest on a stock trading over $220, the structural implications of this move are significant. This decision can catalyze a long-term increase in NVIDIA's share price in several distinct ways.

The most profound driver of share price appreciation from a dividend implementation isn’t actually individual retail investors - it is large institutional funds.Many massive mutual funds, pension funds, endowment pools, and ETFs operate under strict, legally binding charter mandates. A common mandate stipulates that the fund is prohibited from buying any stock that does not pay a meaningful dividend.

By jumping from a token penny to $0.25 a share, NVIDIA officially crosses the threshold for hundreds of dividend-focused institutional growth funds. This opens up a multi-billion-dollar wave of forced buying as these large managers are finally allowed to add NVDA to their portfolios.

Pure traditional value investors - the type who look for low Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios and high dividend yields (like banks or utilities) - likely won't be entirely enticed yet. NVIDIA's dividend yield will still sit under 0.5%. However, it heavily appeals to GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) investors and Dividend Growth fund managers.

Because NVIDIA paired this dividend hike with an extra $80 billion share repurchase program, they are attacking share value from both sides. While the dividend provides a reliable floor for long-term institutional holders, the aggressive buybacks will actively shrink the overall pool of circulating shares, naturally boosting earnings per share (EPS) and applying continuous upward pressure on the stock price.

Personally, as an investor in NVDA (2750+ shares), I don't follow the stock's machinations day to day. However, I am totally satisfied with my return to date; and, more important, after these aforementioned announced NVDA moves, I fully expect this company to easily be worth $10 trillion . . . or more, in 2-3 years.

NVIDIA Q1 FY27 was absolutely insane.

Key points from the CFO commentary:

• Revenue: $81.6B vs ~$78-79B expected
• Data Center: $75.2B (+92% YoY)
• Networking revenue: $14.8B (+199% YoY)
• Gross margin stayed around 75%
• Q2 guidance: $91B revenue expected
• And this is the crazy part: NVIDIA says they are assuming ZERO China Data Center compute revenue in guidance.

Blackwell is ramping massively already, hyperscalers are still spending aggressively, and enterprise / sovereign AI demand is becoming huge.

Another underrated detail:
Around 50% of Data Center revenue now comes from outside the classic hyperscalers (AI clouds, sovereign AI, industrial, enterprise etc.).

Vera CPU opens a brand-new $200 billion TAM for NVIDIA, a market we have never addressed before. Every major hyperscale and system maker is partnering with us to get it deployed.

We have visibility to nearly $20 billion in total CPU revenue this year, setting us up to become the world leading CPU supplier

Has the stock matured and won’t grow as much?

overvalued i can say.

Didn’t expect a dividend raise, they announced up from 1 cent to .25 per share.

Nvidia just reported earnings:

• Revenue: $81.6B (beat est. $78.86B) ✅
• Adj EPS: $1.87 (beat est. $1.76) ✅
• Net Income: $58.3B
• Gross Margin: 74.9%

Q2 Guidance:

• Revenue: $91B vs $86.79B est ✅

Capital Return:

• New $80B buyback authorization
• Quarterly dividend raised to $0.25 per share
• $20B returned to shareholders in Q1

Crushing expectations and raising guidance. The AI dominance continues.

How will NVDA perform tomorrow?

Anyone else feel like the NVDA earnings beat is already priced in?

Not saying the stock cannot run higher. I actually think revenue will likely come in above guidance again. They have a pretty consistent history of doing that.

But going into earnings, I am watching 5 things way more than headline revenue.

First is buybacks.

Nvidia prints insane cash flow, but shareholder returns still look surprisingly light compared with other mega caps. At some point I would like to hear management talk more aggressively about capital returns.

Second is Rubin timing.

Blackwell demand is strong, we know that already. I want more clarity on what 2026 looks like and whether the transition stays smooth enough to avoid margin pressure.

Third is gross margin.

Everyone talks revenue. I care about margins almost as much. If they can comfortably defend the mid 70s while scaling next generation products, that's a bigger deal than people realize.

Fourth is the AI market outlook.

Does management expand the long term opportunity again?

Because if AI infrastructure spending keeps broadening into CPUs, racks, networking and next gen systems, current valuation models may still be too conservative.

Last thing is the TPU and CPU narrative.

Lately I keep seeing people say AI is shifting toward CPUs and that Nvidia's moat weakens from here.

Maybe eventually.

But right now I am not seeing evidence that GPUs suddenly become less important.

My honest view.

This earnings call is not really about "will Nvidia beat".

It is about whether management can reinforce the next leg of the AI story.

Curious what everyone here is actually watching into earnings.

Long NVDA.

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