Nvidia's earnings report is coming after the bell tonight! Beating expectations is basically a foregone conclusion, but Wall Street is really focused on five key questions.
Anyone else feel like the NVDA earnings beat is already priced in?
Not saying the stock cannot run higher. I actually think revenue will likely come in above guidance again. They have a pretty consistent history of doing that.
But going into earnings, I am watching 5 things way more than headline revenue.
First is buybacks.
Nvidia prints insane cash flow, but shareholder returns still look surprisingly light compared with other mega caps. At some point I would like to hear management talk more aggressively about capital returns.
Second is Rubin timing.
Blackwell demand is strong, we know that already. I want more clarity on what 2026 looks like and whether the transition stays smooth enough to avoid margin pressure.
Third is gross margin.
Everyone talks revenue. I care about margins almost as much. If they can comfortably defend the mid 70s while scaling next generation products, that's a bigger deal than people realize.
Fourth is the AI market outlook.
Does management expand the long term opportunity again?
Because if AI infrastructure spending keeps broadening into CPUs, racks, networking and next gen systems, current valuation models may still be too conservative.
Last thing is the TPU and CPU narrative.
Lately I keep seeing people say AI is shifting toward CPUs and that Nvidia's moat weakens from here.
Maybe eventually.
But right now I am not seeing evidence that GPUs suddenly become less important.
My honest view.
This earnings call is not really about "will Nvidia beat".
It is about whether management can reinforce the next leg of the AI story.
Curious what everyone here is actually watching into earnings.
Long NVDA.