Invivyd (IVVD) bull thesis: late stage optionality trading
I've been watching IVVD lately after the recent draw-down to around $140M market cap, and the market appears to be massively overpricing failure.
The most recent filing reported $184.2M in cash and equivalents against long-term debt of $0. There are no reverse splits to date and a raise in November of $125M at a price point of $2.49. IVVD is currently below net cash value, has FDA fast track designation and expanded their current VYD2311 trial due to preliminary high-end efficacy observed.
"Confirmed, pooled, blinded COVID-19 events… can already provide sufficient statistical power to support the high end of anticipated VYD2311 efficacy.”
Current analyst targets have been reiterated with an average target of $10 (852% upside). Invivyd expects to report topline data next quarter and hasn't yet reached pre-data run phase. So what's the catch?
Recent earnings from Pemgarda, the monoclonal antibody for prevention of COVID-19 in immunocompromised people who cannot build an adequate response to standard vaccines, fell short of expectations despite YOY gains. The bull thesis argues that scalability is limited due to the drug being delivered intravenously, which is inconvenient for hospitals and patients. VYD2311, however, utilises intramuscular delivery and has a broader nutrilising against current strains. IM vs IV means no infusion centres, easier access, and huge scalability in comparison.
Currently, 70% of IVVD is held by institutions. I firmly believe that this is a moderate risk, highly asymmetric setup with topline right round the corner. This is one of the cleanest stocks I've done the deep dive on with an excellent cash balance, multiple pipelines demonstrating very favourable efficacy.
If topline proves successful, which has already been hinted at, this could see a rerate to $5-$12 in my opinion. The current entry point of $1.05 carries with it strong support at $1.00 and sits within oversold territory, expectant of a rebound and pre-data run up.
Please DYOR and see whether you think this is an opportunistic play.
May the odds be ever in your favour ✨️