The biggest biotech news this week will easily be ABVX and the potential buyout. Just wondering on your thoughts on whether it would be an all cash deal or a deal involving CVR. I know the current CEO has had dealings in the past where he has used CVR in his acquisition deals. But I know that every deal is different and maybe this is one in which the conditions and factors lean toward an all cash deal.
Sharing a biotech-only watchlist I put together for weekend research.
This is not meant to be a buy list. I was looking for biotech names where multiple factors overlap, including short interest, borrow pressure, low float, days to cover, liquidity, and upcoming catalyst context.
The highest pressure name from the scan was SONN, due to active volume, low float, elevated short float, and high borrow cost.
Other names that stood out from the pressure side:
ELTX — high borrow pressure / low float
SLS — short pressure with Phase 3 data readout context
VERA — PDUFA decision context
RGNX — Phase 3 readout context
ALT — elevated short interest and DTC
CMPX — catalyst context plus short pressure
For catalyst tracking, I also flagged CHRS, AVBP, OLMA, INO, IMUX, and ZNTL based on upcoming event timing and historical reaction data.
Biotech can be brutal, especially around clinical data and FDA events, so I treat this as a research list first. The goal is to identify names worth deeper DD, not to blindly chase tickers.
I built the graphic from my scanner data. The tool is at scstonkemporium.com, but I’m mainly posting this here because I figured a biotech-specific version would be more useful to this sub than the broader watchlists.
Watchlist only. Not financial advice.
Be fucking for real. Yes SLS is looking good, but do you think the people invested balls deep in ATYR and ELTX thought they were gonna be wrong? And then the dd guys come out here saying “Well yes you could tell those trials would fail because x y or z.” Yeah bro, hindsight is 20/20. You gotta realize that in a year from now people might be saying the same thing about SLS.
TLDR; stop fooling yourself into thinking SLS is a lock. Your models don’t account for fraud, malpractice, or just random shit going down. I recommend everyone remove their principal investments and play with house money. That’s what I’m doing.
Hi all, anyone have much thoughts on PLX? Been following closely just wanted some opinions before I purchase. Looks to be long term hold.
Hi All,
I am looking for Some stock with potential heavy upside depending merely on phase 3 results companies like sls for example.
My previous buys in Alumis and SLS got me with some extra spending money.
Pretty much guaranteed to hit $20 after FDA review is completed on 8/2
Easiest money I ever made
And why is SLS not one of them 😎
Hi everyone,
I’m considering starting a position in CYDY and I’d like to do as much due diligence as possible before investing.
If you were starting from scratch today, what are the most important things I should read or verify first?
I’m especially interested in:
- The strongest bullish and bearish arguments.
- Key clinical trial data and upcoming catalysts.
- Regulatory history and any major risks.
- Financial situation (cash runway, dilution risk, etc.).
- Management and partnerships.
- Any old Reddit posts, SEC filings, or interviews that you consider “must-reads.”
I want to understand both the opportunities and the risks before making a decision.
Thanks in advance!
Have you guys seen the warning banner on https://foundayo.lilly.com is that new?
“Warnings – Foundayo may cause tumors in the thyroid, including thyroid cancer. Watch for possible symptoms, such as a lump or swelling in the neck, hoarseness, trouble swallowing, or shortness of breath.”
I won't go through many of them but it's important to know what the analysts are saying about certain biotech tickers. Seeing what they expect may be eye opening.
Some of these may be names you know.
CABA - 5 analysts - 621% upside from today's closing price is projected
DTIL - 344%
CRBP - 306%
ARCT - 151%
AGIO - -7.5% (yes, that's a negative)
IKT - 251%
KURA - 191%
IMUX - 174%
JANX - 156%
JBIO - 127%
OLMA - 224%
NUVB - 152%
VERA - 115%
REPL - -.69% (negative)
ANVS - 780% (!!!)
CMPX - 321%
ZLAB - 85%
ABCL - 16%
Sorry if I didn't hit your favorites. Given these kinds of analyst expectations for the increase in stock prices, it's not hard to see why money may be shifting here from tech/AI/semis.
I'll give you the bullets and, if this is interesting, you can get into the deep dive below.
Bullets...
Deep dive due diligence
First, what is Keytruda? Keytruda is an immunotherapy. It's a PD-1 inhibitor and it's on pace to be the best selling (revenue) drug of all time.
Your body has killer T-cells that have a receptor on their surface called PD-1. It's like an "off-switch" to prevent it from destroying everything in a healthy body. PD-L1 is a camouflage shield that cancer uses to "trick" the killer T-cells into passing by the cancer.
When a T-cell approaches a cancer cell to inspect it, the cancer cell pushes the shield (PD-L1) into the T-cell's off-switch (PD-1). By plugging into that receptor, the cancer cell slams the brakes and the T-cell goes to sleep and the cancer continues to grow undetected.
Keytruda is an antibody engineered to fit perfectly on the PD-1 receptor of the immune cell. When a patient receives Keytruda, the drug floods the system and physically caps the PD-1 receptors with the result that the cancer can no longer flip the off-switch. The body's immune system (T-cells) recognize the cancer as hostile and destroy it.
Sounds amazing! It is. But Keytruda has a weakness called "cold tumors."
For Keytruda to be effective, it has to have two things:
Cold tumors have no T-cells inside the microenvironment to begin with. Keytruda's job is to "cut the brakes" so that the killer T-Cells don't stop fighting. No T-cells to cut brakes, no reaction to cold tumors.
Alpha Darts can target cold tumors. Using CT and MRI, we (humans) can see the tumors. Both hot and cold tumors will show up and appear as physical, abnormal masses of tissue. You won't be able to tell if the tumor is hot or cold because you can't see if it's crawling with fighting T-cells (hot) or if it's been deserted by the immune system (cold.)
Via advanced imaging (Immuno-PET) a hot tumor will glow brightly because it's packed with T-cells. A cold tumor will remain dim because there are no T-cells for the tracker to stick to.
Identifying and targeting the cold tumor is the key to unlock...
T H E H O L Y G R A I L
A cold tumor is completely invisible to the immune system. There are no T-cells there so drugs like Keytruda are completely useless.
By inserting Alpha DaRT directly into a cold tumor, the localized high LET radiation physically shatters the cancer cells. This forced destruction acts like a giant biological flare gun. It forces the tumor to spill its hidden internal proteins (antigens) directly into the tissue microenvironment.
This "wakes up" the immune system and rushes killer T-cells to the site and effectively turns the cold tumors hot. Once those T-cells are trained on the newly exposed cancer "fingerprints", they can travel through the bloodstream to hunt down other metastatic tumors elsewhere in the body. Keytruda ensures they never hit the brakes.
This is called the Abscopal Effect and it is a major paradigm shift in oncology.
Alpha DaRT's superpower here is its ability to "light up" a cold tumor, creating the exact environment that Keytruda needs to step in, jam the immune brakes open and unleash a full-body abscopal effect.
Historical note: We've seen some evidence of abscopal effect with Alpha Tau in the past. If you remember, we saw an instance during the Pancreatic presentation.
Personal note: My concern with this upcoming event is that we're dealing with elderly head & neck cancer cases. Elderly people already have a diminished immunity system and the recurring head and neck won't help. This Abscopal Effect won't wipe out tumors systemically unless there are T-cells to do battle. And the truth is that this combination therapy wasn't designed to test for Abscopal Effect but there is good news: It was set up with Best Overall Response Rate (ORR) as its primary objective.
RESULTS SO FAR...
The amazing news is that it worked, at least in early efforts.
ORR means the total percentage of patients whose cancer meaningfully shrank or disappeared.
ORR for Keytruda: 19%
ORR for Keytruda + Alpha DaRT: 75% (!)
Complete Response (CR) means all target cancer lesions have completely disappeared.
Complete Response Rate for Keytruda: 5%
Complete Response Rate for Keytruda + Alpha DaRT: 37.5% (!!)
If these numbers hold up in the presentation, this is a massive performance improvement to the biggest selling immune drug on Earth.
How this could play out...
Remember, Alpha DaRTs are a device and not a drug. Sorry to keep stressing that but it's important. With a device, you run a 30-50 person safety/feasibility trial and then you run a 300 person efficacy "pivot" trial.
If you are safe (trial 1) and more effective than the standard of care (trial 2) you get a gold star on your forehead and the FDA calls you certified.
The challenge is that the FDA won't approve Alpha DaRT + Keytruda. That's not how the FDA works. What they'll do is clear the path for Alpha DaRT + Keytruda in head and neck cancers to be approved.
Then, Alpha DaRT + Keytruda in the next solid tumor and the next solid tumor and the next solid tumor.
And each time, Alpha DaRT + Keytruda will be looking not just for ORR and Complete Response rates but they'll be looking for Abscopal effects.
Which cancers tend to be "cold?"
These will be names you recognize from recent, impressive results:
PDAC Pancreatic cancer - This is the quintessential cold tumor. Up to 70% of the tumor mass isn't actually cancer cells, it's a dense, scarring physical wall (desmoplastic stroma) made of collagen and hyaluronic acid (needed AI for that one.)
Glioblastoma (aggressive brain cancer) - GBM populates an environment heavily dominated by immunosuppressive cells rather than T-Cells. Keytruda has struggled here.
Ovarian cancer - some go hot but most are in "cold deserts."
Prostate cancer - Low mutational burden so it looks like normal healthy tissue. Once it becomes resistant to hormone therapy (castration-resistant prostate cancer) it metastasizes to the bone and is incredibly difficult to treat.
Colorectal cancer - 95% of metastatic colorectal cancers are "Microstaellite-Stable (MSS), meaning they have few mutations and are entirely cold. Keytruda is great with the 5% hot tumors here.
Oncology researchers are desperate for bridging technologies like Alpha DaRT. If a local treatment can shatter the dense stromal walls of PanC or force a low-mutation prostate tumor to spill internal antigens, it will act as a mechanical override - forcing these highly fatal "cold fortresses" to turn hot.
COSTS...
Reimbursement: If you have a choice of reimbursing a drug you know (Keytruda) and an outpatient targeted radiation treatment like Alpha DaRT or you could reimburse for Car-T, TIL Therapy or TCR-T therapy plus a required hospital stay, as an insurance provider, you're going with Keytruda every day. Here's why.
Keytruda: $10k to $15k per dose (given every 3 to 6 weeks) A full year costs $150k to $185k.
CAR-T therapy: MFG cost: $375k Total cost (plus hospital) $1M
TIL Therapy: MFG cost: $515k Total cost + hospital: $1M
TCR-T Therapy: MFG cost: $400k Total cost + hospital $1M
The reason these therapies are expensive is because scientists must physically harvest your cells, ship them to a multi-million dollar lab, re-engineer or cultivate them over several weeks and ship them back. This is a one-patient, one batch process. Then, patients must undergo intense chemotherapy to clear out their existing immune system to make room for the new engineered cells. The therapies can trigger life-threatening immune overreactions and patients routinely require days or weeks in ICU to manage the dangerous side effects while the cells adapt.
Compare that to popping a pill like Keytruda and undergoing a biopsy like outpatient procedure with Alpha Tau...
Not only the insurance guy but the oncologist and the patient will all want Keytruda + DaRTs.
CLOSING...
Still reading? Thank you for allowing me to share a double Ted talk. The abscopal effect, if it shows up consistently in conjunction with Keytruda means that we've won a battle. Oncologists have a new weapon, patients have new hope, and we have invested in a multi-billion dollar global platform across all solid tumors and we were there back when it was at a paltry $1B market cap back in mid-2026.
Anyone else looking at VERA ahead of the decision next week? The phase 3 kidney data looked massive with that 46% protein reduction, but the stock is still down 30% this year and earnings were absolute trash. Are you guys actually holding/buying more?
AI says good opportunity to make money, but I am a bit skeptical.
I haven't posted on here in a long time, simply haven't had many insanely good ideas pop on my radar until this one.
A couple of weeks ago, I had the chance to have coffee with a hedge fund manager who's big on Biopharma. She was telling me about some challenges big pharma's facing over the next few years and the potential for some massive gains in the space buying labs that own interesting patents.
Essentially, in biotech, you have 2 sides. You have the labs that do the research on medicines and you have Big Pharma that buys the rights to sell medications when when labs find something patent worthy that's worth their time.
Big Pharma doesn't bother doing research as much anymore unless they're certain they'll have a blockbuster drug. It's not worth the risk for their shareholders, so what they do instead is wait for a lab to discover something of note and do all the testing, then either buy out the lab or lease the right to sell the medication with a royalty agreement. They then have their sales teams go out into the world to sell the medication and they use their factories to produce large quantities of these meds for sale.
Big Pharma takes minimal risk on research and instead takes the risk on sales.
Between now and 2030, $400 billion of annual sales worth of products are falling off patent. When that happens, big pharma's set to lose out on MASSIVE revenues as generics will be allowed to compete.
They need to replace those patents with new products that can move the needle.
There's only 2 ways they can realistically save themselves from the patent cliff:
In comes Abivax $ABVX. Abivax is a European lab that has a patent on a medication (Obefazimod) that was initially developped for use to treat HIV as an antiviral.
In their research, they discovered that it had amazing results in treating Ulcerative Colitis.
Current treatments have 15-35% success rates initially (25-50% long-term symptom control).
Obefazimod has over 50% remission rates (40% more than the placebo).
Out of patients who showed zero response to standard initial induction therapy, 37.2% achieved clinical remission after continuing on a 50 mg dose of Obefazimod and patients who had seen a relapse, increasing the dose to 50 mg saw 45% of them to completely regain clinical remission.
Analysts are expecting this medication to be worth between $3.5-4 billion for for Ulcerative Colitis alone.
The lab is currently testing for Crohn's disease as well. If they get approval there, it's another $3-4 billion of annual sales potential.
The medication's a once a day pill, which makes it extremely convenient.
They plan to file with the FDA by end of year.
The expectations are that they'll be bought out before then.
If they don't, that would mean that they'll become a cashflow monster.
Why didn't I post a couple of weeks ago when the stock was at 100$?
The stock sold off a few weeks ago on a report that there were a few patients that had developed various cancers. This cancer risk made the company less likely to be acquired until more testing could be done.
Follow-on data has just come out and it looks like they're in the clear.
70% of the float's owned by institutions, so there's a low float.
This leaves us big opportunity for an early pop.
Both Eli Lilly and AstraZenica are rumored to be looking to acquire them, so this MIGHT end up in a bidding war if one decides to make a move.
TLDR: High likelihood of acquisition. Probably a 2-3 bagger. Buy long-dated calls.
How you should position yourself: Acquisitions take time and are generally surprise announcements in pharma. Being that the FDA approval is aimed for end of year and expectations are that the company is bought out before then, long-dated calls are the play.
I think the stock will slowly rise through end of year which will offset some of the IV crush.
Positions:
100 shares. (Average cost of 94$)
20x Jan 2027 100$ calls. (Average cost of $55)
I'm going to keep buying if there's any weakness in the stock.
Hey guys, if you missed it, Rivian settled $250 million with investors over claims that it failed to disclose the true cost of producing its vehicles. And, I just found out that they’re accepting claims even though the deadline has passed.
Quick recap: In 2022, Rivian was accused of misleading investors about its vehicle pricing and production costs. In short, the company promoted its R1T pickup and R1S SUV as competitively priced electric vehicles, but investors later alleged that Rivian was losing substantial amounts of money on each vehicle sold and failed to clearly disclose how severe the cost gap was. As supply-chain issues and material costs increased, Rivian announced major price hikes that sparked customer backlash and raised concerns about the company’s financial outlook.
Now, the good news is that the company agreed to settle $250 million with them, and even though the deadline has passed recently, they’re accepting late claims.
So, if you invested in $RIVN when all of this happened, you can still check the details and file your claim here.
Anyway, has anyone here invested in $RIVN at that time? How much were your losses, if so?
Hey guys,
Been digging into the GenFleet buyback news from a few days ago and tracking that June 30th PTCL study completion date that just passed. The timing on all of this is crazy. If the DD is right and the combined AML + PTCL peak revenue puts us in that $6.7B+ valuation range for an acquirer, a buyout is looking more and more like the end game here.
I'm still relatively new to biotech M&As though, so I had a quick question about how a bidding war actually plays out on the chart.
Hypothetically, if multiple big pharma companies start outbidding each other to acquire SLS, how does the share price and market cap behave on broker apps while those conditional offers are flying around?
Does the market cap on the app instantly jump to reflect the dollar amount of the highest pending bid, or does the price just fluctuate and trade close to the offer based on market volume until a deal is 100% signed and finalized?
Would love to hear from anyone who has held through similar biotech buyouts in the past.
Cheers!
The significant price rise in ACOG shares over the past few days is good news for shareholders who have been patiently waiting since last fall for Zunveyl’s potential to be reflected in the stock price. The hedge fund Opaleye signaled a jump in confidence in Alpha Cognition’s prospects last Friday with the purchase of a block of 152,000 shares, their largest single-day purchase since February—bringing their total to 2.9M shares, roughly 13% of issued Alpha Cognition common stock—and solidifying their position as the largest institutional holder.
What was particularly notable about this trade was the purchase price of the block—$6.40/share—a significant increase for Opaleye, which has spent the past five months bottom-feeding at prices between $5.40 - $5.99/share. This change in purchase price strategy likely reflects Opaleye’s expectation that 2nd quarter results will be upbeat, with positive news such as significantly increased volume of Zunveyl scripts per LTC facility, reduced payer friction or the near-term likelihood of an ex-US regulatory approval.
The price of ACOG on the Nasdaq exchange ended at $7.89 today, the highest in 9 months and up 23% from OpalEye’s block purchase price 6 days ago—indicating both OpalEye founder James Silverman’s prescience regarding Alpha Cognition and a broader market upswing of confidence in the company’s prospects.
What does anyone know about MAIA Bio Tech? Looks like it could be a good opportunity at its price.
If you missed the $SLS run to $15, stop chasing and load up on Cabaletta Bio ($CABA) around $3.10 before the herd catches on.
If you exited SLS and are looking for a place to park your profits, then CABA is 100% for you.
They are pioneering the holy grail of biotech right now: preconditioning-free CAR-T for autoimmune diseases (think a literal one-and-done "CURE" button for Lupus and Sclerosis without any nasty chemo).
Here's why:
You have Big Pharma cash, automated manufacturing secured, a pivotal trial running, and a massive pipeline update dropping in H2 2026.
Wall Street consensus targets sit right at $15 (with Cantor Fitzgerald aiming for $30). It’s a beaten-down, high-short-interest spring waiting to coil. Get in under $4, watch the data drop, and ride the CAR-T hype train straight to $15. 💎🙌