r/biotech_stocks

I've been doing algorithmic biotech trading for a while and one thing I kept struggling with was tracking catalysts and PRs in a structured way.

Over time I ended up building a system that:

• tracks biotech catalysts
• tags PRs in real time
• categorizes things like offerings, FDA events, phase 1/2/3 data, etc.
• stores everything in a searchable database/API

Originally this was just for my own trading research, but I figured other biotech traders/researchers might find it useful too.

One interesting thing I found is that PR headline classification alone gets surprisingly far for identifying meaningful biotech events quickly.

I'm curious:

• what tools/workflows are people here currently using?
• what biotech information is still hardest to track efficiently?
• are there specific catalyst types people care most about?

Happy to discuss the technical side too if anyone's interested.

Here is the cold, hard data on why the current valuation is a complete joke, and exactly when the shorts are going to get trapped.
1. The Insane Enterprise Value (EV) Discount
Market Cap: ~$330M (at ~$5.37/share).

Cash & Short-term Investments: $168.3M (As of March 31, 2026).

Enterprise Value (EV): $161.7M Wall Street is valuing their entire FDA-approved manufacturing facility, their active commercial launch, their new solid tumor T-cell platform (ABO-701), and a functional commercial monopoly at just $161M. Bankruptcy or near-term dilution risk is mathematically 0%.

2. High-Octane Operating Leverage
In Q1 2026, Zevaskyn generated $8.72M in revenue (pulverizing the consensus forecast of $4.62M by over 88%).
The kicker: That $8.72M came from just 3 patients ($2.9M average per patient).

The margins: Cost of sales was only $2.7M, meaning they are pulling a massive ~69% gross margin on their first treatments. With quarterly recurring fixed costs (SG&A + core R&D) stabilized around $22M, their commercial break-even point is just 11 patients per quarter.

3. The Shorts are Trapped in a 22-Day Chokehold
According to official NASDAQ data, the Short Interest stands at a massive 30.64% of the float (16.49 million shares sold short). Because of the low average daily volume, the Days to Cover is a staggering 22.5 days (fintel shows a short volume ratio consistently above 50-60% over the last few days). They cannot squeeze through the exit door quietly.
Timeline of the Squeeze: When does the fuse ignite?
The disconnect exists because we are in a temporary visibility gap: the company has expanded its Qualified Treatment Centers (QTCs) to 6 active sites, but the cash hasn't fully hit the balance sheet yet. The short squeeze is highly likely to trigger in 3 distinct steps this year:
Step 1: The June 2026 Profitability Floor. Management explicitly reiterated on the May 13 call that they anticipate hitting monthly net profitability starting June 2026. Once June prints green, the "cash burn" narrative is dead, creating an unbreakable floor around $5.00 - $5.50. Borrow rates will start eating the shorts alive.

Step 2: The Mid-August Q2 Earnings Trigger. In Q1, all $8.72M came from only 2 active centers. For Q2, management confirmed 1 patient is already treated, 1 is in manufacturing, and 6 more are scheduled/expected for biopsies. That's a pipeline of 7 to 8 patients for Q2, projecting revenue near $20M - $23M. Printing a sequential 100%+ revenue growth will cut the quarterly net loss in half. Algos will buy aggressively, triggering margin calls for weak shorts as soon as we breach technical resistance at $7.50, pushing the stock to $10.

Step 3: November Q3 Capitulation. As their network scales toward 15 active centers by year-end, Q3 will be the first full quarter displaying structural net profitability. Trapped by a 22-day exit timeline, institutional shorts will be forced into a cascading buy-back panic.

Bottom line: Krystal Biotech ($KRYS), their direct competitor with a lifelong chronic application gel, is sitting on a $9.1B market cap. Abeona's curative, one-shot cell therapy just needs to capture a fraction of that execution to reach a $1B valuation, pushing the stock straight to $15+.
The spring is coiled tight. The August earnings will be the catalyst. Positioned before the crowd.

I'm long fully expecting and hoping for a BO end of year / early next year and for Sellas to be delisted as a result. However, what happens if Sellas decides to sell GPS and keep SLS009 and run with it to potentially sell years later? What happens to our shares if only GPS is sold?

This is not financial advice, do your own DD. I own a small long position in ONCO (0.38 average). This is a Wall Street Bets type of stock I’m about to highlight, and is very high risk.

Onconetix Inc (ONCO) is a small cap ($4.3 million) company with a high risk profile, but with a high reward potential due to a low float, high amount of shorted shares, and low amount of time to cover. I’ll start off by bringing up the set up, and I’ll finish by talking about the company profile and it’s upcoming reverse merger.

1. Short Squeeze Set Up: There have been some reports showing ONCO has an ultra low share float (between 580,000-654,000 shares on the public float). There are discrepancies on the total shares due to a recent 1:5 reverse split this past March. However, it seems that the share float is closer to 10 million now, and that ONCO has diluted since the reverse split. There was a seeking Alpha article published on May 4th, showing 33.03% of ONCO shares being shorted. The days to cover is very low (0.05-1.0 day to cover). According to Interactive Brokers, the short fee rate is 545.32%. While ONCO does not have as crazy of a short ratio as some and ultra low share float like some places are reporting, the opportunity for a squeeze is still there. ONCO could be a prime candidate to make huge movement due to the high percentage of shorted shares (33%), low days to cover (1 day), and high short fee rate (545%).

2. ONCO Company Profile: ONCO is a biotech company whose main product is Proclarix, and in vitro diagnostic test for prostate cancer. Proclarix is approved for sale in the EU. Two recent peer-reviewed studies supported Proclarix’ use to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies. Revenue from Proclarix is extremely low, only about $21,457 in 1q of 2026. This week ONCO announced a US multi-center validation study (called PRIME) with Labcorp to enroll up to 500 men across multiple ethnicities. Comparable tests to Proclarix (4Kscore, PHI, ExoDx, and SelectMDx) generate revenue in the low-to-mid tens of millions annually, which is meaningful but not blockbuster type numbers. The biggest risk for this company is their financial profile. As of May 11th, ONCO has $4.1 million dollars cash, and their cash burn in 1q 2026 was $2.1 million. They will need to raise capital in the relatively near future (few months), not just to run the business, but to execute their deal with Realbotix.

3. Realbotix (XBOTF) Acquisition: The biggest catalyst for ONCO is their definitive agreement to acquire Realbotix, which was announced in February. Realbotix makes AI powered humanoid robots, and they’re in very early stages of commercial launch. Their first unit was delivered in April to Ericsson, and there last update highlighted they plan to deliver 19 humanoid robots by the end of May. They are also moving to a new facility in Las Vegas by June 2026, that will support higher unit output. The deal between ONCO and XBOTF is supposed to close in the second half of 2026. When the deal is executed. This is an all-stock acquisition. Realbotix will own 75%–90% of the combined company, which is expected to trade on Nasdaq. Realbotix (XBOTF) currently has a market cap of about $50.5 million. As a reminder, ONCO is trading at a $4.3 million market cap ($0.38 a share), so it is valued less than 10% of Realbotix’ current market cap. It is estimated that ONCO will need $12.5 million minimum net cash threshold, plus other conditions (committed equity line, conversion/amendment of existing securities). I only way I can see ONCO raising capital without dilution or loans would be to sell Proclarix, which could be a possibility. However, ONCO doesn’t have good leverage in a deal, considering their financial situation. ONCO has not mentioned selling Proclarix, so this is pure speculation.

Of the companies I’ve written DD reports here on Reddit so far, this is by far the highest risk stock. The financials do not look good for ONCO, which is why I say this is a degenerates stock and certainly a gamble. However, ONCO being valued at less than 10% of Realbotix’ $50.5 million market cap make me think ONCO is undervalued at this level. Since Realbotix will own 75-90% of shares after the deal, I think ONCO should currently be worth $5.05-$12.5 million market cap based on XBOTF market cap. That would be 20%-295% upside from its current value. The high level of shorted shares could cause ONCO stock to launch if a rally starts, but it would need to happen before more dilution comes, so time is of the essence.

Non so se notate ma quando vengono pubblicate le 10 azioni più importanti dei grandi investitori: W. Buffett, R. Dalio, J Ackman ecc

Non c'è mai un titolo Biotech o Pharma neanche una Big Pharma es. Eli Lilly

Che pensate?

SLS Announced the 60th Event, the share price Launched

SLS Announced the 72nd Event, the share price Launched

SLS Announced the 78th Event, the share price Launched

SLS is about to announce the 80th and Final Event ... Not the results just the 80th event, the share Price will launch ahead of the Phase 3 Result, which is about 40x more valuable than the current share price.

The 80th Event Puts $40B of Value on the Table.

- Ballistic Verticality incoming.

THE 80th EVENT PR is a A SURE THING WINNER - massive Catalyst to be Followed by an even more massive catalyst-Final Results Giving Gps the FDA Green Light to Generate Tens of Billions of Dollars
- Tens of Billions in Real Revenue worth $40B to $LLY $ABBV
- this $1.2B Manipulated Equity is worth $40B the Instant P3 Data Hits

$SLS Got to hand it to the Ceo, Really great set up here now, for Investors, with the imminent 80th.

- the share price will continue climbing, until it Launches.

Sure thing - investment opportunity of our lifetimes.

The Share Price Will be climbing a $40B Mountain of Value - until it Absolutely Launches when we get the 80th Event PR.

- as others have discussed, the 80th event may have already occurred just waiting for the data points to cycle through the process.

2 weeks till PDUFA date. Everything is set. Once approved , stock to $35.00 in 2 years because of their patented PTR release system. That's the assest of a lifetime. Stock hit 11 bucks on patented confirmation. All big drug companies will want to license this delivery method. Gives them 16 more years protection

REGAL Phase 3 Trial ongoing 5+ years, now at the finish line.

49 patients remain 🙏 of 128 patients enrolled at Least 26 months ago ranging up to 64 months.

80th EVENT Will Be Announced Followed by the Top Line Results which are 40X more Valuable than Current Manipulated / Share Price.

https://preview.redd.it/7b2r7e2mp61h1.jpg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0caa901ba6a0323e7da013f4f138c8c21cf7b3ca

https://preview.redd.it/iwrlvrfip61h1.png?width=1112&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb9ca1c7daa8073913c4f326e12506564da87c39

https://www.reddit.com/r/sellasLifescience/comments/1td6xjq/sls_free_money_anyone_investing_now_ahead_of_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
SLS Announced the 60th Event, the share price Launched

SLS Announced the 72nd Event, the share price Launched

SLS Announced the 78th Event, the share price Launched

SLS is about to announce the 80th and Final Event ... Not the results just the 80th event, the share Price will launch ahead of the Phase 3 Result, which is about 40x more valuable than the current share price.

The 80th Event Puts a $40B Mountain in view.

- Ballistic Verticality incoming.

if you want to identify the truth, good luck and focus on actual data / facts.

26 months after enrollment completed, 49 / 50 patients remain alive.

AML post secondary salvage, in a setting where the largest US REGAL clinician is on record saying 'you will not see survival past 12 months'.

- 3 Dr's Treating actual Patients are on record stating MOS for patients onBAT is 'dismal, not durable', 'extremely poor - 5-7 months'.

MOS and IR data from the actual Interim Analysis - was UNBLINDED.

Industry Players accumulating Know.

Most of the 49 or 50 REGAL Phase 3 Patients, who remain continue receive GPS Immunotherapy.

- after being asked precisely

- how long do control patients survive in his clinical practice experience using BAT.

" Median OS is just 7 months, 6-8 months. " for patients Using Aza + VEN

Aza+VEN BAT for Control recently Failed Large Phase 3 Trials conducted by $ABBV, including 2 Ph3 Fails for AML Remission Maintenance.

VIALE-M FAILED VIALE-T FAILED -VERONA Failed

GPS Phase 2 MSKCC AML Remission Maintenance in CR1 MOS was Better than transplant - NYR >67.6 months

GPS Phase 2 AML CR2 Second Remission Maintenance. Statistical Significant p. val .02 - MOS was 21 months vs < 6 months

https://preview.redd.it/0pbfjgvdp61h1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6aabf724986b1a89cb0f0c106aba24d56824c99

https://preview.redd.it/i6s90cvdp61h1.png?width=1902&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e41e79258ed3fb1ba0db877006daf83a68362aa

https://preview.redd.it/vp3exlsfp61h1.png?width=1520&format=png&auto=webp&s=83b9c623af4bf25497b688a797fff42093cd213e

Tenaya Therapeutics presented gene therapy trial data at ASGCT in Boston this morning. Their drug TN-401 is a one-time injection for ARVC, a genetic heart disease where heart muscle turns to scar tissue and causes deadly irregular heartbeats. There is currently no cure.

All 6 patients in the trial saw dangerous heartbeats drop by 64% on average. Biopsies confirmed the gene successfully reached heart tissue. No serious safety issues were reported.

They also announced the European Medicines Agency granted TN-401 PRIME designation, their highest priority fast-track status. This is on top of existing FDA Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations, meaning the drug now has accelerated review status on both sides.

Stock is around $0.80. Cash runway into late 2027. Active Alnylam partnership worth up to $1.1B in milestones. FDA regulatory meetings planned for H2 2026 to map out the path to a pivotal trial.

NFA

Putting aside the Hantavirus for a moment, A few genuine candidates:

1. Personalised cancer vaccines (V940/intismeran autogene) This is the most Ozempic-like candidate. If the melanoma data holds and it gets approved, you're talking about a fundamentally new category of medicine,,where a vaccine personalised to your tumour's mutations, manufactured in weeks. There's no ceiling on that market. Every solid tumour becomes a potential indication. This is the one that could redefine Moderna into a mag-7 adjacent stock the way GLP-1 redefined Lilly.

2. CMV vaccine Cytomegalovirus is massively underappreciated publicly but enormous medically, it's the leading infectious cause of birth defects, causes serious disease in immunocompromised patients, and has no approved vaccine despite decades of attempts. Moderna's candidate is the most advanced ever. Not as flashy as cancer vaccines but potentially a $10-15B annual market with no competition.

3. Moderna's mRNA synthesis and delivery platform. If they become the infrastructure for personalised medicine broadly, cancer, rare disease, autoimmune , then the platform itself becomes the moat, not any single product.

It's worth remembering, analysts were way too conservative on NVDA for years, and LLY underperformed despite the fact it had GLP-1 research 15 years before Ozempic became a thing. Thank you for reading

Morgan Stanley raised the firm’s on Recursion Pharmaceuticals () to $5.50 from $5 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares.
🚀🚀🚀

To all the long-time contributors to this group - I hope this adds some value to your journey.

*Not financial advice. Do your own research.*

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**Current price: ~$11 (up 17% today post-earnings) | 52-week low: $2.25**

An expectation of a $35-$45 share price 12 months post commercialization seems very reasonable.

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## POINT 1: COMP360 MAKES CLINICS MORE MONEY PER HOUR THAN SPRAVATO

Spravato’s model: patients come in **21 times over 6 months**, each visit is ~2 hours, clinics bill a flat rate per session. Revenue per clinic hour is roughly **$650–$690**.

COMP360’s model: patients come in **1–2 times total**, each session is 6–8 hours, clinics bill **by the hour** under newly secured psychedelic-specific CPT billing codes. Revenue per clinic hour is roughly **$1,600–$9,000** depending on drug pricing.

That’s 2.5x to 13x more revenue per hour of chair time.

And it gets better — because Spravato requires maintenance dosing indefinitely to sustain the effect. COMP360 showed durable response through 26 weeks after just 1–2 doses. So clinics aren’t just earning more per hour — they’re freeing up capacity to take on new patients instead of running the same ones through 21-session marathons.

**The financial picture per patient episode:**

	COMP360	Spravato
Sessions	1–2	21
Hours per session	6–8	~2
Total clinic hours	~8–16	~42
Estimated total revenue	~$26K–$74K	~$27K–$29K
Revenue per clinic hour	~$1,600–$9,000	~$650–$690

*Drug pricing is estimated (no official WAC disclosed yet). COMP360 WAC assumed $25K–$35K per dose based on analyst benchmarks.*

The 7,500 clinics already certified to give Spravato are CMPS’s launch targets. They have an immediate economic incentive to convert referrals.

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## POINT 2: THE ADMINISTRATIVE BURDEN DIFFERENCE IS MASSIVE

This one doesn’t get enough attention.

Every Spravato session requires: vital signs, dissociation assessment, 2-hour monitored observation, discharge documentation — times 21 sessions per patient. Indefinitely for maintenance. Payers require re-authorization every 4–12 weeks. The admin overhead per patient per year is estimated at **$3,000–$6,600** in staff time.

COMP360: 1–2 doses, 1–2 authorization cycles, 1–2 REMS documentation events. Admin cost per patient estimated at **$500–$1,000**.

For a clinic treating 100 TRD patients:

- Spravato admin overhead: ~$300K–$660K/year
- COMP360 admin overhead: ~$50K–$100K/year
- **Savings: ~$200K–$560K per 100 patients**

That’s before accounting for the higher hourly billing rates.

Also worth noting: payers are increasingly pushing back on indefinite Spravato maintenance dosing and imposing session caps. COMP360’s limited-dose model is structurally insulated from that risk.

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## POINT 3: THE COMMERCIAL RAMP SHOULD BE FASTER THAN SPRAVATO’S

Spravato launched in 2019 into nothing:

- Zero pre-trained sites
- No state rescheduling prep
- No psychedelic billing codes
- COVID hit the next year

COMP360 launches into:

- **7,500 Spravato-certified clinics** already trained, already credentialed, already seeing TRD patients
- **~90% of the US population** lives in states that have committed to reschedule COMP360 within 30 days of FDA + DEA approval — 2 years of lobbying already done
- **CPT3 hourly billing codes** already secured before approval
- **Payer discussions already underway** per the Q1 2026 call
- **1–2 month FDA review window** via the Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher (CNPV) — unprecedented speed

Illustrative revenue ramp (assumes $30K WAC per dose, 2 doses avg per patient):

Year	Active Sites	Patients Treated	Revenue Estimate
Year 1 (2027, partial)	375 (5% of base)	~3,000	~$180M–$270M
Year 2 (2028)	750 (10%)	~11,250	~$675M–$900M
Year 3 (2029)	1,500 (20%)	~30,000	~$1.5B–$2.0B

For context: GlobalData modeled COMP360 at $879M by 2031 — and that was built before both Phase III trials were positive, before the CNPV was awarded, and before 90% state rescheduling coverage was achieved. The number is probably low.

Spravato comparison: took 4–5 years to approach $1B in annual revenue, with none of the structural tailwinds COMP360 has.

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## ADDITIONAL THINGS THAT BUILD THE CASE

**PTSD pipeline (13 million patients)**
Same drug, same infrastructure, new indication. Phase 2b/3 trial underway with VA collaboration sites. Phase 2 data already showed a 29.5-point CAPS-5 reduction at Week 12 from a single 25mg dose. If PTSD works, the addressable market is 3.25x larger than TRD. Approval probably 2029–2030 but the optionality is real.

**3-for-3 in clinical trials**
Phase 2b + COMP005 + COMP006 — all positive in controlled trials. Spravato had a mixed trial history before approval. Jefferies assigns 75–85% probability of FDA approval. TD Cowen described “strong conviction” it gets approved and has “robust market uptake.”

**White House executive order**
An executive order explicitly prioritizing timely rescheduling of FDA-approved psychedelic treatments was issued in April 2026. Direct tailwind for DEA rescheduling speed.

**M&A optionality**
BioPharma Dive reported AbbVie M&A speculation in July 2025. A company with two positive Phase III trials, first-mover status in a new drug class, and a ~$1.5B market cap is a reasonable acquisition target. Any deal would price well above current analyst targets.

**$466M cash, no dilution needed**
They don’t need to raise money through launch and into 2028. A lot of pre-commercial biotechs raise dilutive rounds right before launch. CMPS doesn’t have to.

**First classic psychedelic ever approved in the US**
If approved, COMP360 is the first psilocybin-based medicine in American history. First-mover advantage in a new drug class is durable — Spravato still has 100% of the psychedelic TRD market years later.

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## RISKS

- **Payer coverage in Year 1** — formulary decisions not finalized; broad commercial coverage isn’t guaranteed at launch
- **CPT3 → Category I conversion** — until codes upgrade, payers have more discretion to deny; could take 1–2 years post-launch
- **REMS requirements** — not yet finalized; an onerous REMS could slow site certification
- **COMP006 Part B data (early Q3 2026)** — final 26-week durability data needed to complete NDA; if something goes sideways here the timeline moves
- **Pricing pressure** — payers will negotiate rebates; net pricing could come in below WAC estimates
- **No revenue yet** — this is still a pre-commercial biotech; there is real execution risk

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## WHERE DOES THE STOCK GO?

Current price: ~$11. Shares outstanding: ~135M. Market cap: ~$1.5B.

Scenario	12-Month Post-Commercialization Price	Probability	What Has to Go Right
Bear	$12–$18	~20%	Approval but slow payer coverage, REMS friction
Base	$25–$40	~45%	On-track ramp, CPT3 functioning, PTSD optionality priced in
Bull	$45–$70	~25%	Fast ramp, broad payer coverage, PTSD data positive
M&A	$70–$120	~10%	Acquisition at premium
**Probability-weighted midpoint**	**~$32–$42**		~3x–4x from today

Analyst consensus: 11 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell. Range: $8–$70. Median: ~$18–$25 *before* approval — which would expand significantly post-approval.

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## SUMMARY

Compass Pathways has a psilocybin drug that worked in every trial they ran, a business model that pays clinics more money per hour than the only drug it’s competing with, 7,500 ready sites, a 90% state rescheduling runway, a 1–2 month FDA review voucher, $466M in cash, and a PTSD pipeline that’s 3x the TRD market. The stock is at $11 with a probability-weighted analyst target of $32–$42 twelve months after commercialization. The question isn’t really whether the drug works — it’s whether the payer and execution machinery moves fast enough. Based on how much work has already been done on that front, there’s a reasonable case it does.

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*Sources: COMPASS Pathways Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 13, 2026), COMP005/006 Phase III data, Jefferies/Stifel/Morgan Stanley/LifeSci analyst notes, GlobalData COMP360 market forecast, Morningstar/Google Finance market data, Spravato prescribing information (Janssen, 2025), BioPharma Dive, Clinical Trials Arena.*

*Again — not financial advice. I hold a position. Do your own research.*

BE HOLDING and HOLD ON TIGHT.

$ABVX was a $5 Stock in the Days Leading up to its P3 Result it Doubled to $10 --- When the Result was Announced

- there was T1 TRADING HALT

- and GAP UP 600% to $60 In and Instant

-- and it Kept CLIMBING to a HIGH OF $148

... Something Very Similar is about to Happen Here - any day now.

https://preview.redd.it/ke1m5wkdas0h1.jpg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fdfb0139984ae2636db4414136b43263434bfbcc