
There’s one big reason socialist voters may not get what they want
Summary:
Levitz's central argument is that primary victories do not translate into a mandate for the DSA's actual legislative agenda, because Democratic primaries attract a left-leaning electorate that is not representative of the broader general election voting public. This as an old structural problem for the American left: the gap between what energizes primary voters and what the median American voter will support in a general election or tolerate from their legislators. The article argues that the socialist electoral wave is real but that delivering on the actual policy platform remains a separate an intractable challenge.
Opinion:
The DSA's argument for socialism hinges on the idea that it can all be paid for by taxing billionaires. However if you confiscated the entire net worth of every U.S. billionaire, around $8.4 trillion, it could barely cover a single year of current federal spending. It could only fund the full DSA agenda for months. Even among Bernie's supporters, these policies are only popular on the condition that the 'rich' will pay for it all. Most leftists, and a super majority of everyone else, do not favor raising their own taxes. A YouGov/Vox poll showed Medicare for All support drops from ~70% to ~37% when respondents are told it would require a middle class tax increase. Yet implementing the DSA agenda would require additional annual tax revenue of anywhere from $10,000 - $30,000 per American household. The median household income in the US is $80,000. So the DSA agenda represents an additional tax of 15% - 40% of the median income. There are approximately 130 million U.S. households. Even a 100% wealth tax on every American billionaire - were it possible to accomplish such a thing - raises roughly $65,000 per household, a one-time windfall that funds the agenda for less than two years and then the money is gone forever.
The history of social democratic expansions in Europe shows that middle-class tax increases in the range of 15-25% are politically survivable only when the benefit is immediate and universal. The DSA agenda is much more diffuse, making the political backlash far more likely.
Personally, I think the cost of a single DSA legislative victory will mean the sudden and catastrophic end of their political mandate in the very next election.