I built a forex bias model with public backtest stats | looking for people to tear it apart
I’ve been building a forex research dashboard called MacroLookup, and I finally got the AEW model stats page clean enough to let people critique it.
The model is not a trading bot and not a magic entry signal. It is a directional bias layer for forex pairs. It combines macro regime context, COT positioning, USD liquidity, central-bank policy context, and conviction filters to decide when a pair has a cleaner directional bias versus when it should just be ignored.
What is shown there:
- OOS split and date range
- conviction-gated results instead of only the broad average
- action-state quality
- factor ICs
- regime/cell performance
- walk-forward factor discipline test
- cost assumptions and limits
I’m intentionally not hiding the weak parts. Some broad model stats are not impressive by themselves, and the point is to show where the model has evidence and where it should stay as context only. The current conclusion is basically:
- low conviction = mostly informational
- 35+ conviction = watchlist quality
- 45+ conviction = cleaner historical profile
- standard/high-conviction action states are the only ones worth paying attention to
- timing/entry still needs separate confirmation
I’m opening premium access for the next 48 hours for anyone who signs up, mainly because I want actual traders/model people to test the forex pages and tell me what looks unclear, overfit, or useless.
You’ll be able to see the AEW model, pair details, forex table, timing/evidence sections, and the backtest page during that window.
No financial advice, no guaranteed performance, no “buy/sell now” calls. I’m mostly looking for skeptical feedback on:
- Would you trust this backtest page more or less than the average trading tool page?
- What metric would you want added before taking it seriously?
- Is the conviction-gated framing clear, or still confusing?
- Does the model page feel transparent enough about limits?
- What would make you instantly distrust it?
The part I’m trying to make more transparent is the validation page:
https://macrolookup.com/forex/aew-model-stats
If you try it, be harsh. That is more useful than polite feedback.