r/Forexstrategy

+290 pips🤝

Today ISM PMI in focus. High volatility expected. Strong USD =Gold.

📈 Gold Outlook (H4):

🟢 Bias: Bullish
🛡️ Support: $4,164 – $4,147
🚀 Resistance: $4,302, then $4,415
⚠️ Below $4,147: Risk of a drop toward $3,940.

My current view is that gold prices may fall at the beginning of this week before rising again.

The strategy for Prime Gold is to wait for the price to fall back to the FVG buying zone around $4095 to $4101 to confirm an upward signal, and then follow the price towards a more liquid area.

Gold is gonna sell because we have a FVG and SVG so it gives us the first confirmation Then the is a trendline that has 2 touches the market is going to sell clean sell here is the proof

Sell big profits📉 guy make sure your a profitable Trader

Gold H4: Bullish above the 100-SMA. Support: $4,147. Resistance: $4,302. A break below support may target $3,940.

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Gold has entered a corrective phase after its strong rally toward the 4,200 area. While the recent decline may appear bearish on lower timeframes, the broader market structure has not changed significantly. At the moment, this looks more like a healthy retracement within an existing uptrend rather than the beginning of a full trend reversal.

On the 1-hour chart, sellers have gained short-term control after price failed to hold above resistance and broke below a minor consolidation pattern. This has shifted intraday momentum to the downside, meaning further weakness cannot be ruled out in the near term.

However, the 4-hour chart continues to paint a different picture. The market is still respecting its sequence of higher highs and higher lows, which remains one of the clearest signs that buyers continue to control the larger trend. Unless key support levels are lost, the overall outlook remains constructive.

Key Support Levels

- 4,150 – First support where buyers may attempt to defend the current pullback.

- 4,135–4,140 – Strong demand zone formed by previous consolidation.

- 4,100 – Major higher-timeframe support. A sustained move above this level keeps the broader bullish structure intact.

Key Resistance Levels

- 4,175–4,180 – Initial resistance and the area where the recent breakdown occurred.

- 4,210–4,220 – Recent swing high and the most important resistance zone.

- A successful breakout and close above 4,220 could create enough momentum for a move toward 4,250.

Market Outlook

In the short term, the market may remain under pressure while trading below 4,175–4,180. Sellers currently have the advantage on lower timeframes, but this alone is not enough to confirm a trend reversal.

The main focus should now be on how price behaves around the support zones. If buyers step in around 4,150–4,140 and price starts forming bullish confirmation, the market could resume its upward trend. On the other hand, if gold breaks below 4,135 and especially below 4,100, it would suggest that the correction is becoming deeper and that bulls are losing momentum.

Rather than trying to predict the next move, it's better to let the market reveal its direction. Waiting for confirmation around important levels often provides higher-quality trading opportunities than chasing price in the middle of a correction.

I don’t think many people know this one

So finally, after 8 consecutive bearish weeks, we finally witnessed a bullish weekly candle last week, which was exactly in line with our weekly analysis expectations. Along with that, Gold also managed to close strongly above our key institutional level of $4085. Overall, the weekly candle has formed a hammer-like structure, which is another positive sign.

Keeping all these factors in mind, one thing is becoming clear: in the short term, Gold can start showing bullish pressure because the market has already created several traps, and even last weekend it finished by setting up another sellers' trap. Understanding these traps will be very important before trading next week.

Now let's talk about what traps have been created in Gold and what direction the market could take next week.

On Friday, Gold made a high of $4195. After that, the market spent most of the session consolidating before closing lower. Because of this, many traders have once again entered fresh sell positions. The main reason is that on June 23rd, the market produced a strong selling move from almost the exact same area. Looking at that historical price action and the overall higher timeframe structure, sellers have once again become aggressive around this zone since the $4200 round number is acting as a major psychological resistance.

As a result, many traders have already opened short positions around this level and are holding them overnight with their stop losses placed just above $4200.

But are these sellers actually safe below $4200?

In my opinion, absolutely not.

I believe the market intentionally behaved this way last Friday. After giving a strong upside move during the Asian session, Gold spent the rest of the day consolidating just below the $4200 resistance. Since Friday was also a bank holiday, the market makers simply needed time to create liquidity, and that's exactly what happened. Round numbers naturally attract a large number of traders, making them perfect liquidity zones.

So overall, I have no doubt that many traders are currently sitting in sell positions with their stop losses above $4200, and I believe the market will target those stops once Monday's session begins.

My expectation is that Gold will either open flat or with a gap up, and soon after the opening, we could see a breakout above $4200, triggering a sellers' trap.

So during the Asian session, if Gold manages to sustain above the $4165-$4172 area after the market opens, I believe buying opportunities can be considered with targets at $4203, $4217-$4224, and if momentum remains strong, we could even witness a one-sided bullish move towards $4234 on Monday itself.

At the same time, once Gold approaches the $4234 area, I will start watching volume very carefully. If buying momentum begins to slow down there, I would expect another decent selling move around Tuesday or Wednesday. The purpose of that move would not necessarily be to start a new bearish trend, but rather to trap the buyers who entered after the breakout above $4200.

Think about the psychology behind it.

First, the breakout above $4200 traps all the sellers. Then, once retail buyers become confident and start buying above the breakout, the market could temporarily move lower to trap those new buyers as well. That decline would convince everyone that selling has resumed, encouraging fresh sellers to enter the market. Once enough liquidity is created again, the market could trap those new sellers too and continue the larger bullish move.

This is the type of price action I am expecting during the upcoming week.

Overall, my upside target for next week remains around $4275. If the bullish bias becomes even stronger and smart money continues to show aggressive buying interest, then I believe Gold could even trade above $4300 next week.

One thing to remember: this entire bullish plan remains valid as long as Gold stays above $4085.

Personally, I don't expect a major decline next week because the market has already spent several weeks in a bearish phase, and the strong buying that appeared last week clearly suggests that smart money has started showing buying interest for the short term.

So based on the current price action, market psychology, and liquidity structure, I remain bullish on Gold next week. My primary focus will be on trapping the sellers positioned below $4200. Even if we get a fresh selling move during the week, I will treat it as a potential trap and look for confirmation before assuming the bearish trend has returned.

I hope you enjoyed this psychological trading analysis, found it logical, and learned something valuable from it.

Good luck to everyone for the upcoming trading week. I hope you all have a profitable week.

By the way, what's your trading plan for Gold next week? Let me know in the comments! ⬇️

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Wrapping up the week on gold. Full picture:

Monday: 1:2 target hit. +340 pips.

Tuesday: SL hit. 150 pips loss.

Tuesday: 1:2 target hit. +400 pips.

Wednesday: 1:2 target hit. +370 pips.

Friday: Still running. +150 pips so far.

Net so far: +1110 pips. Friday trade open.

5 setups. 4 wins. 1 loss.

Two trades on Tuesday — one stopped out, one hit full target. Both posted publicly.

That's what honest tracking looks like.

What levels are you watching on gold

heading into next week?