u/Aggravating_Roll7917

ASTS: Companies Enter Japan's Low Earth Orbit Satellite Telecoms Market - Yomiuri

By Yasuhiro Kobayashi and Hikaru Sunaga / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

(Dow Jones) -- Companies are beginning to enter Japan's market for telecommunication services utilizing low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, as they aim to compete with the currently dominant Starlink service provided by the U.S. company SpaceX. Rakuten Group Inc. and U.S.-based Amazon Inc. plan to offer such services in the near future.

If intensifying competition improves service quality, these services may see more use in times of disaster, among other situations.

Rakuten has partnered with U.S. startup AST SpaceMobile Inc. to launch a satellite-to-smartphone service in Japan by the end of the year. Since the smartphones will communicate directly with satellites, no special equipment -- such as dedicated antennas on the ground -- is required. AST plans to have 45 LEO satellites in orbit by early 2027, potentially scaling up to 90 depending on demand.

AST satellites are equipped with massive antennas measuring about 220 square meters -- close to the size of a tennis court. While conventional LEO satellite communications are primarily limited to messaging, AST's satellites will also allow customers to make video calls and stream video, according to Rakuten.

"Our (satellite) service will offer high-speed, high-capacity communication via mobile phone, which will give us a huge competitive advantage," said Rakuten CEO Hiroshi Mikitani at an event held Aug. 5.

Amazon plans to launch up to about 3,000 satellites. It also aims to launch services utilizing LEO satellites in Japan as early as this fiscal year and provide telecommunication services to companies and local governments in cooperation with firms such as NTT Docomo Inc. France-based Eutelsat SA has provided similar services since 2025, having teamed up with SoftBank Corp.

Use in disasters
LEO satellite telecommunications have spread rapidly since around 2020, mainly driven by improvements in satellite technology. These satellites enable communications even in areas that are typically out of range, such as mountainous regions and the open ocean. They can also be utilized for purposes such as monitoring bears in the mountains and checking river flow rates.

When a massive earthquake hit Kumamoto Prefecture in July, NTT Docomo and other telecommunication companies used Starlink to supplement the functions of damaged base stations, restoring the communications network in about two days. In contrast, it took about 10 days to restore the network following the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.

Elon Musk's SpaceX operates about 10,000 LEO satellites, far exceeding other companies. However, only 650 can provide direct smartphone communication, leaving room for new entrants.

https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/2090088613056823740?s=20

https://xcancel.com/spacanpanman/status/2090088613056823740?s=20

Credit: Tanner Kirk Ottaway on X: https://x.com/tottaway22/status/2079624426455544135?s=20

"Project is a go from the Government standpoint.

Now we wait to see what AST has planned & when construction begins.

A huge benefit to the city of Midland & the Airport about to get a world class Aerospace Manufacturing facility"

VIDEO LINK: https://youtu.be/XRGCttRpDI0?si=gk10Wlx-tYt31d6c

Midland Development Corporation this morning unanimously approved the $66m incentive package for a new 23acre 400k sqft+ facility. Expected to add $1.4b in annual economic output to Midland

MDC is very happy with AST over the years & has exceed all previous agreement requirements & possible to become the largest private employer in Midland.

Credit: Tanner Kirk Ottaway on X

ASTS Convert Reinforces Positives; Buy

In Thursday's aftermath of a $1.1B convert, ASTS came under pressure (-17% Thursday vs. SPX down <1%) as investors wrestled with "Why," given the fully funded D2D constellation. Simply stated, it expands growth opportunity as ASTS leverages its time-to-market advantage with further financial flexibility for manufacturing, launch diversity, and potential spectrum acquisition. Additionally, ASTS has established itself as "the" viable and reputable neutral third-party for corporate and sovereign partnerships such as the pending J LEO opportunity (Japan with Rakuten) and the Vodafone JV in Europe, in our opinion. Use the weakness as a buying opportunity.

Convert pressure provides an attractive entry point: This past week, the announcement of a $1.1B convert placed significant pressure on ASTS shares, as the action appeared to conflict with prior comments of the constellation being fully funded. So what happened and why now? Simply stated, we believe that the incremental growth opportunity continues to crystallize with MNO engagements and potential for dedicated sovereign LEO constellations (J LEO below). Consequently, estimated proceeds of $983M, after a capped call with a $149.20 strike price (~1.5% dilution) will be used for manufacturing capacity, securing launch vehicle capacity, and spectrum (an increasingly important asset in the space race). So while initially perplexing, we view the financing as opportunistic and a positive reiteration of the emerging D2D opportunity.

Early 2027 constellation launch: Consistent with our outlook, ASTS has reinforced achieving 45 satellites and the commercial launch of the constellation in early 2027 (we expect 1Q27). In general, this reflects the delays around launch vehicles, specifically Blue Origins' New Glenn May launch pad explosion. While Blue Origin continues to make progress and is expected to return to the launch rotation by year end, this has pushed the expected launch cadence into 2027. In the interim, ASTS continues to lean heavily on Starlink's (SPCX-NC) Falcon 9 while qualifying other launch vehicles such as United Launch Alliance's (ULA) Vulcan.

Partnerships and J LEO: ASTS has established itself as a unique and reliable neutral third-party partner for terrestrial MNOs and governmental organizations. This starts with the Vodafone JV which provides favorable access to European spectrum and appears to be continuing with Japan's Rakuten. At present, Japan's Ministry of Communications has agreed in principle to subsidize a Rakuten Group-AST SpaceMobile JV to the tune of ¥150 billion (approximately $926 million) for a new LEO constellation with dedicated Japan capacity. In essence, this provides more global capacity for a global ASTS constellation while establishing sovereignty for national access, in this case Japan. We believe this could create an arms race of sovereign capacity in G-20 countries. ASTS is the ideal partner for these potential emerging constellations, in our opinion.

Reality setting in on Starlink: As we have previously articulated, ASTS has a time to market advantage over SPCX for broadband D2D and more attractive MNO partnership model, in our opinion. Starlink Mobile's 7.4M D2D sub base is narrowband, or text and emergency services. Broadband D2D capabilities require the next-gen V2 satellites which will also await the commercialization of the Starship launch vehicle. Given recent Starship headwinds, we would expect broadband D2D services in late 2027 or 2028, at best. This provides AST SpaceMobile with a 12-24 month time-to-market advantage (even accounting for its own recent Blue Origin headwinds). Additionally, ASTS's MNO partnership approach (60+ operators and growing) provides a significant channel with 3B+ current subscribers vs. Starlink's 1.7B pops covered under 30 MNO agreements. The bottom line is ASTS's D2D has a performance, time to market and a partner momentum advantage over Starlink, in our opinion.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/city-of-midland\_cityofmidlandtx-activity-7483639464985096193-IF6B?utm\_medium=ios\_app&rcm=ACoAAAGvazUBsq5\_Ik7U6bMHY-1oGNeDrPuWNCk&utm\_source=social\_share\_send&utm\_campaign=share\_via

Huge if this goes through!

https://www.fcc.gov/document/fcc-consider-direct-device-connectivity-unlicensed-devices

Video posted by Cesar Chavez on Facebook

Tanner Kirk Ottaway: "Nice catch! That’s either a new shipping box (they are gonna need 6+) or one of the boxes from BB8-10 headed back to midland to be loaded up with BB11-13"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ztYle9gDlE

X Link: https://x.com/JR_spacetime/status/2049873936671027482?s=20

X Cancel Link: https://xcancel.com/JR_spacetime/status/2049873936671027482?s=20