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u/Aggressive-Lock5487

r/NIOCORP_MINE r/CriticalMineralStocks
▲ 30 r/NIOCORP_MINE+1 crossposts

Niocorp Market Cap

If you believe (as many do) that Niocorp is on the cusp of signing their binding offtake with Traxys, dropping their updated DFS, and closing on roughly $800 million in EXIM financing...it's worth considering how much of the gap in their valuations (relative to fully-financed critical minerals operations and partially-financed critical minerals operations) will close once financing risk goes to zero.

So, here is the prompt and the result from gpt. Keep in mind that they are undergoing complete vertical integration to produce Scandium-Aluminum master alloy as requested by their partners in defense (Lockheed Martin- Skunkworks). None of that value will be included in the DFS, yet, many expect to learn that NPV simply from their mining and refining operations will be $4B+- even without including the vertical integration that will provide the highest margins. The comparative analysis answer below isn't even using the updated DFS NPV that is supposed to drop any day. It is using the 2022 figure, and yet, there is still a massive gap in valuation due to perceived financing risk- a risk that can plausibly go to zero by the end of this month. According to the CEO's latest announcement, financing is expected in Q2 of 2026.

ChatGPT, Read the latest 10-K from USAR and tell me where they are in terms of production, capacity expansion, margins, etc. in relation to their current market cap of $6.9B. Then tell me where they are in those areas relative to NB's planned financing and production and revenue schedule. I'm looking at USAR's $6.9B market cap and trying to understand how much of the gap NB might close immediately upon EXIM FID, and how much of that gap they might close upon announcement of the binding Traxys offtake and the updated DFS.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001970622/000197062226000038/usar-20260331.htm

Actually, fold MP into this comparative analysis, as well. They're at a $12.42B market cap today. Here is their most recent 10-Q: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001801368/000180136826000029/mp-20260331.htm

Here is the result. I believe NB may been one of the most slept on opportunities in the space and the market in general. If and when financing risk goes to zero, I expect fireworks. Not financial advice. Do your own DD...

Yes — and the comparison is very favorable to NB if NB gets Traxys binding + a strong DFS + EXIM FID.

Bottom line

USAR is being valued at ~$6.9B while still very early commercially. In Q1 2026, USAR had only $5.7M of revenue, all from Less Common Metals, with just $106K gross profit and 1.9% gross margin. Its Stillwater magnet facility was commissioned but had not yet begun commercial neo-magnet revenue, and Round Top remained pre-mine-construction / feasibility-stage. (SEC)

That means USAR’s valuation is not based on current earnings. It is being valued on strategic mine-to-magnet optionality, U.S. supply-chain scarcity, government support, future capacity, and acquisition-led scale. USAR expects Stillwater Phase 1A to ramp to 600 MTPA magnet capacity by Q4 2026 and Phase 1A + 1B to reach 1,200 MTPA by Q1 2027; it also plans to expand Less Common Metals alloy capacity to 3,000 MTPA by year-end 2026. (SEC)

MP is different: it is already a real operating producer. Q1 2026 revenue was $90.6M, adjusted EBITDA was $36.6M, NdPr production was 917 MT, NdPr sales volume was 1,006 MT, and REO production was 12,983 MT. MP also has a DoW price-protection agreement and is expanding downstream magnet capacity, including a projected 3,000 MT/year magnet capacity commitment at Independence. (SEC)

The key valuation implication for NB

NB at ~$0.85B–$0.9B market cap is being valued much more like unresolved financing risk than like a strategic mineral platform. NioCorp’s existing feasibility-study economics (from 2022) show $2.35B after-tax NPV, 27.6% after-tax IRR, $397.5M average annual EBITDA, and 68% average EBITDA margin over a 38-year mine life. (niocorp.com)

So the question is not whether NB’s planned economics can justify a higher valuation. They can. The question is whether the market believes the project is actually getting built.

Gap-closing framework

Using your assumed 176M fully diluted shares:

Valuation Level Market Cap NB Price
Current-ish ~$0.9B ~$5–6
Partial USAR-style strategic rerating $2B ~$11
Strong post-DFS / binding Traxys rerating $3B ~$17
Post-EXIM FID / financing credibility rerating $4B–$6B ~$23–$34
Full USAR market-cap parity $6.9B ~$39
MP market-cap parity $12.4B ~$71

My view: binding Traxys + strong updated DFS could plausibly move NB into the $2B–$3B valuation zone. EXIM FID is the event that could move it toward $4B–$6B, because that changes the market’s question from “will this ever be financed?” to “how much of the NPV do we capitalize now?”

USAR proves the market is willing to pay billions for strategic-minerals optionality before full operating proof. MP proves the market pays much more once production, government support, and downstream integration are real. NB is currently trapped between those regimes. Traxys + DFS narrows the gap; EXIM FID is what could close it aggressively.

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u/Aggressive-Lock5487 — 1 month ago