u/Aggressive_Ebb_7634

SPI futures +51 points to ~8,720. Wall Street went absolutely ballistic overnight — S&P 500 through 7,500 for the first time ever, Dow cracking 50,000, Cisco +13% on earnings, Nvidia up again with the US clearing it to resume advanced AI chip sales to China.

Geopolitically, the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing was more constructive than expected — Xi indicated he wants to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil still sitting near $107 but the "this is spiralling" narrative has softened a bit.

Locally: MIN's Chris Ellison sold $122m of his own stock this week (first sale in 9 years, apparently for "personal financial planning"). TWE has a French billionaire quietly accumulating.

Key watch: whether we hold above 8,700 in the first hour. Materials look interesting — iron ore above $110, copper supportive. Banks need to stabilise after a bruising week.

Anyone else watching the energy sector closely today given the Hormuz noise? Feels like the most binary sector right now.

Losing streak snapped, but only just. ASX closed up 10 points, came back from a low of 8,602 to finish at 8,640. Not pretty but green.

The real story is the divergence — ASX down 3.78% over the last 20 sessions while the S&P 500 is up 5.3% and Nasdaq up 8.6%. We're fighting our own battle here — budget overhang, bank aftershocks, profit warning trickle. The rest of the world is melting up and we're treading water.

BHP and Rio both hit fresh record closes again. The copper/AI trade is basically the only thing keeping this index from rolling over harder.

Megaport was the standout — up 27.7% on $254m of US contracts. That's a real result.

Bapcor got absolutely smashed, down 18.5% on a profit warning. Citing the Iran war as a headwind on fuel costs. Wild times.

Xero down 9% on Anthropic's Claude for Small Business launch — AI disruption fears hitting the local software names hard.

Anyone else positioning around the miners here or waiting to see how the Trump-Xi outcome lands tomorrow? Lynas (LYC) will be interesting tomorrow

https://preview.redd.it/utj8j17qcu0h1.jpg?width=401&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2389d4eac72b523efd3df5e02858d502dc452a27

“In our view, favourable tax treatment is one of the reasons why there has been a 30-year housing ‘super-cycle’ in Australia.

“However, changes to property-related tax concessions could have a profound effect on the long-term demand for investment properties.”

Wiles tipped investor loan growth to slow from 10 per cent to 7 per cent next year.!"

April US inflation jumped to 3.8%, which is the highest we’ve seen in three years, mainly because of the increase in gas prices.

Ooch!

Higher energy prices due to the Iran war could filter through to many other goods in the coming months. For example, higher gas prices are pushing up the cost of transportation, which might in turn make food and clothing more expensive

God help us! 🙏 more to come here 🇦🇺

Bit of a split-screen day.

Banks sold hard all session on Budget anxiety — ANZ and NAB both down 2.1%, CBA and Westpac 1.4%. The fear was negative gearing changes and CGT reform hitting property investor demand for mortgages. Property investors were around 40% of mortgage applications last year so it's not a small number for bank earnings. They sold on the rumour — Budget detail tonight will tell us whether they bounce or keep going.

Meanwhile BHP closed at $59.78, an all-time high, briefly overtaking CBA as the largest company on the ASX. Copper hit another record (around US$6.44/lb). Rio +3.1%, South32 +3.6%. Materials was the only sector in the green.

The ugly: Life360 -10.9% after downgrading user growth guidance — a tech glitch is suppressing new user adds and won't be resolved until Q3. Revenue beat didn't matter, growth is the whole thesis. DroneShield -9.9% with ASIC launching a formal investigation after the former CEO and chairman sold ~$70m in stock. Timing is rough. CSL continued falling, down another 2.2% after Monday's 16% collapse.

Bigger picture: ASX down 3.4% over the last 19 sessions. S&P 500 up 5.5%, Nasdaq up 9.3% in the same window. The RBA keeps hiking while the Fed is about to cut. That gap is why international money is rotating out.

US CPI tonight is the next big one — street expecting 3.7% headline (from 3.3% in March). Hot print and rate-cut expectations get repriced everywhere.

Anyone else positioned around the banks tonight, or sitting on hands until the Budget detail drops?

ASX 200 futures down 42 pts (-0.5%) into the open, extending Friday's near $50bn wipeout — biggest one-day decline in two months.

The interesting structural point: the local tape is wearing this harder than Wall Street. AMP's Diana Mousina pointed out we're more exposed to a Hormuz closure than US peers — Australia imports 90% of its refined fuel, and a dozen ASX-listed companies have already issued profit downgrades in the past month tied to Middle East exposure. Brent back at ~US$104, WTI ~US$100, gold firm at US$4,720..

Iran reportedly submitted its response to Washington Sunday morning, but substance is unclear — geopolitical tail risk is unresolved into the new week. Big US inflation print this week will frame how long the Fed can hold rates with oil elevated.

Worth noting: the bigger weekend conversation among traders wasn't really Iran — it was the price action itself. Concentration extremes, RSI overstretch, and a spike in 0DTE call option activity have a few strategists drawing late-1990s comparisons.

Levels I'm watching at the open:

- 8,680 support → hold + reclaim of 8,720 in the first hour = constructive bounce signal

- Lose 8,680 → quick path to 8,620 (50-day MA + prior breakout base, line in the sand for the medium-term uptrend)

- Resistance now layered at 8,780 then 8,830 — Friday's range becomes overhead supply

Energy and Resources reaction will be the proxy for whether the war premium is being chased or faded. Financials' behaviour into the budget noise is the swing factor for the index.

Anyone else watching specific names or levels into the open?

ASX 200 futures down 42 pts (-0.5%) into the open, extending Friday's near $50bn wipeout — biggest one-day decline in two months.

The interesting structural point: the local tape is wearing this harder than Wall Street. AMP's Diana Mousina pointed out we're more exposed to a Hormuz closure than US peers — Australia imports 90% of its refined fuel, and a dozen ASX-listed companies have already issued profit downgrades in the past month tied to Middle East exposure. Brent back at ~US$104, WTI ~US$100, gold firm at US$4,720.

Iran reportedly submitted its response to Washington Sunday morning, but substance is unclear — geopolitical tail risk is unresolved into the new week. Big US inflation print this week will frame how long the Fed can hold rates with oil elevated.

Worth noting: the bigger weekend conversation among traders wasn't really Iran — it was the price action itself. Concentration extremes, RSI overstretch, and a spike in 0DTE call option activity have a few strategists drawing late-1990s comparisons.

Levels I'm watching at the open:

- 8,680 support → hold + reclaim of 8,720 in the first hour = constructive bounce signal

- Lose 8,680 → quick path to 8,620 (50-day MA + prior breakout base, line in the sand for the medium-term uptrend)

- Resistance now layered at 8,780 then 8,830 — Friday's range becomes overhead supply

Energy and Resources reaction will be the proxy for whether the war premium is being chased or faded. Financials' behaviour into the budget noise is the swing factor for the index.

Anyone else watching specific names or levels into the open?