r/ASX

Big banks and REITs started the week under pressure after that US investment bank note came out predicting a 10% drop in Australian house prices this year. Today though, Goodman, Stockland and the big four are all up a couple of percent and it’s like nothing really happened. I’m wondering how people actually handled it. Did anyone get spooked by the headlines and end up selling into the dip, or is it more that most people here have seen enough of these property doom calls over time to just ignore it and carry on?

Hi,

I just started investing in ASX through CMC.
Have been recieving tonne of letters from the companies that I bought stock of, however I just noticed that for one of them, the BSB number is different than the one shown on my CMC sub account.

The BSB number on the paper from JIN: 014 936

The BSB number on the CMC website after logging my in account: 016 936

The account number is same on both.

Is this normal? I cant verify from the letters of other companies as I already shredded those letters.

UPDATE: Just called CMC and as per them, they have made this change themselves. Strange that they did not inform prior to this. As of now, both accounts could be used.

Hi guys,

Aged 22M here just started investing in March. Here is how I have set up my portfolio, purely etfs on Vanguard as follows:

- VGS 16k
- VAS 20k
- VDHG 15k
- VTEK 15k

Any advice for spread // exposure?

I was wondering if it was worth buying into the nasdaq and also some individual stocks too?

If so what platform would I do this on? Stake or CMC?

I have 30k cash still and part of me wants to have a play with some individual semi-conductor // dram stocks.

Cheers

I’ve been watching CSL since it spectacular fall to $93 odd dollars before recovering modestly to where it currently closed today at $98.47.
Wow. Who saw that coming.
Anyway I’ve been watching it since it’s screaming 30 percent drop wondering what the hell just happened?
I understand that the market reacted violently to the recent 90 day update but wow. In my view it dropped way below its inherent value.
Let me explain. CSL is still highly profitable. 15.2 bn turnover to a 3.1bn net profit. So the current share price drop seems a bit over done. Anyway the market moves on sentiment as much as it does real financial outcomes.
As we know this is more about poor decisions made by the company that lost some money. Quite a bit actually. But the market is missing the still highly profitable bit. And profits climbing bit. So to me this is a wait for good news to realise inherent value time.
Anyway back to the market. The last few days have been encouraging. We have seen high volumes since the fall and quite a bit of volatility early on. But the last few days have been less volatile with higher lows and a very tight trading range. Today the low was in the high 97s. It opened at 98.35 and closed at 98.47.
So let me ask could this be a base forming?

Hey when the morningstar buy analysis indicates strong buy/holds (say 2 buy 1 hold) and lists say 5 participating brokers, does that mean:

A - 5 brokers have placed buy orders?

B - 5 brokers possess shares from already executed orders

C - several are holding onto shares longer term

D - combination of above?

Can someone break it down for me and explain?

I’ve been watching Xero for quite a while. I actually think it’s a terrific business.

The company has moved into strong profitability, cleaned up its balance sheet, and I believe it may have built a genuine long term moat if it incorporates AI. But like a lot of SaaS companies, it became heavily overpriced during the hype cycle.

That’s the thing people confuse in markets:
A great company doesn’t always mean a great buy at any price.

With a P/E around 97, it’s expensive

It has hit a historical support level on my charts, but personally I wouldn’t really start looking seriously unless it got back closer to the $45 to 50 range.

Some SaaS companies will probably still do well long term, but valuation still matters.

I’m fairly new to investing and trying to learn more about US/international shares from people with more experience.

Curious what individual US or global stocks people here actually hold, and why? How have the results been over the years?

Also trying to understand the real pros and cons for an investor buying US stock... things like growth potential, currency risk, tax, dividends, fees, and whether it’s worth the extra complexity compared to sticking mostly with ASX shares or ETFs.

Not looking for financial advice, just wanting to learn how more experienced investors think about international investing and portfolio balance.

Thanks.

I can handle a red day while I’m still in a position, but seeing something run after finally exiting feels weirdly worse. Do you also get stuck thinking about the opportunity cost more than the actual loss?

My current portfolio is 50% NDQ and the rest some other junk I want to get rid of. I am planning to find new etfs that complement NDQ. What do you guys think of paring NDQ 50/50 with AVUV or VEU? Or could I even make my portfolio 33% of each of those?

I use the commsec app atm and have stocks with Ishares

I have been grinding away at my portfolio for three years now and just crossed the $40k mark. It feels like such a slow climb when you are only investing a few hundred bucks a paycheck. Does the compounding effect actually start to noticeably speed up once you cross that six figure milestone?

What would you buy in this current scenario?

What I usually do is buy for 1000$ and dump when jt hits 10% profit but now everything is so unpredictable and I am holding on to some stocks..like TLX which i bought again after a 10% profit sell because I thought its gonna go up again.

Some stocks which I sold are 4DX, PME ( I think i should have hold on a bit more), MIN

I follow a lot of heathcare stocks but dont know which to buy next.

What would you recommend? Is the best advice for now is to just see where the market goes? I think most stocks..like CSL for example needs to hit ground but where is the ground lol

I’m still quite new to investing, but I’m currently managing to automatically route about 15% of my post tax income into my brokerage account the day after payday. Some weeks it feels like a real squeeze on my lifestyle, but I am terrified of looking back in ten years and wishing I started earlier

After last week’s budget, am I right in thinking that there’s no distinction between an investor and a trader as far as the ATO is concerned?
Previously you would be considered an investor if you held onto a share for longer than a year to get the 50% CGT benefit. Now, you can buy and sell and pay the minimum 30% tax regardless of how long you owned the shares. Is my understanding correct?

Last post for the weekend.

My last pick is Super Retail Group. They own brands like Supercheap Auto, rebel, BCF. They also own Macpac but that doesn’t interest me 😂

They’re currently trading in what I consider a buy zone, although that definitely hasn’t stopped the stock from continuing to fall lately, so be careful with entries and stage in if you’re buying.

I’m generally not a huge fan of retail businesses, but I still like the quality of these brands and the fact they’ve built strong positions in their niches. Supercheap Auto especially has a pretty sticky customer base and a strong loyalty ecosystem even with competition like repco.

Some of my rough numbers/thoughts:

Market cap around A$2.8 to 3.0B
FY25 revenue around A$4.1B
FY25 normalised NPAT around A$232M
Trading around roughly 14 to 15x earnings
EV/EBITDA roughly 5.5 to 6x
FCF yield still attractive relative to a lot of the ASX
Strong balance sheet with low drawn debt historically

Buy Below: $11.50
Hold Range: $11.50 to $14.50
Sell/Trim Above: $16 to $18+

Biggest risks in my opinion are margin pressure from discounting, weaker consumer spending, retail theft and rising operating costs. But long term I still think the brands themselves have value and decent staying power.

I understand every company I have posted is in a current decline, these aren’t get rich quick stocks, these are just companies in my opinion that can be long term defensive stocks

Not financial advice obviously, just my own opinion and research going into next week. Cheers everyone. Until next time.

Looking at investing 5k into something. What stocks should i look into?

People forget the dot com boom in the 90s.

Back then investors thought tech could only go up. Valuations became detached from reality, companies with little profit traded at insane multiples, and everyone believed “this time is different.” Eventually the cycle ended, sentiment reversed, and a lot of people got wiped out chasing hype.

You can even see similarities today across parts of tech and SaaS. Some businesses are still fantastic companies, but fantastic companies can still become terrible investments if you massively overpay for growth.

That’s why I think the market is becoming too pessimistic on CSL Limited while simultaneously becoming too optimistic elsewhere.

CSL is a century old biotech company with massive barriers to entry, critical healthcare products, strong global revenue, real profitability, huge R&D capability, and dominant market positions.

Yet because of short term issues like the Vifor concerns, slower earnings growth, margin pressure, and weaker sentiment, people are acting like the business is permanently broken.

I don’t think the core thesis has collapsed at all.

Meanwhile capital continues flowing into hype driven sectors like AI momentum stocks, speculative lithium names, cyclical oil plays, and high multiple SaaS companies.

Some of these companies don’t even have stable earnings, meaningful ROIC over WACC spreads, or reliable P/E ratios because profits are so volatile.

My original CSL buy zone was around $150 to $165 based on the information available at the time. Clearly the market became far more bearish than expected and I was early. I can admit that.

But reevaluating the business at current prices, I still struggle to justify the level of pessimism relative to the quality of the company itself.

Short term market sentiment and long term business quality are not always the same thing.

Temporary problems happen. Market cycles happen. Fear happens. But quality businesses with real moats and long operating histories tend to survive.

The market eventually humbles every hype cycle. Discipline, valuation, and patience still matter.

I’ll add my reevaluation and og valuation as well if anyone’s interested.

New to investing, how can I increase my knowledge around stocks and the share market. What sort of things do people look for when trying to decide if an investment is a worthwhile option? Any info would be great