u/troyju

Well to all the Pelicans who gave me a gob full when I said $90 was probably the bottom for CSL. Today I made a 12 percent profit.

As some of you may remember I posted an optimistic opinion piece on why I thought $90 was the bottom for CSL and I also explained why and that CSL wasn’t broken. At the time I got a gob full from the posters on Reddit who think they are stock market guru’s but are actually dopes who obviously know nothing more than how to lose their money. Fast forward and today and I sold out of my CSL holding at more than 12 percent profit. I was on the money when talking about the August report and happy to sell for a tidy profit. Needless to say I will continue to buy and sell CSL because it’s a solid company with solid returns.
A shout out to the Pelican who calls himself Psychological meal who thought it necessary to bag me and tell me I knew nothing. Good call champ. Anyway thanks to those who kept the faith and im sure CSL will continue to improve.

Over the past few months I’ve been posting my thoughts on CSL. My posts have been upbeat because I have genuine belief in the company. I have studied the three sectors of CSL and made observations that pointed to a recovery.
Unfortunately some haters have been giving me a gob full. When I suggested $90 was possibly the bottom I was roundly criticised and when I suggested the BlackRock stock increase was positive some Pelican called Psychological meal dove I with attacks telling me that I basically knew nothing.
Well the past few weeks and particularly today I would say are positive and heading in the right direction. This kicked off after the BlackRock increase. So to the wolf of Wall Street wannabe. You know nothing mate

Well my last optimistic post about Naylor buying some CSL shares got some mixed reactions but now a total of three directors have increased their holdings and more importantly BlackRock has now increased its total holdings from 6 to 7 percent.
That to me is significant and they obviously see value. Companies like BlackRock make smart investment decisions and throwing almost 500m at CSL doesn’t happen with a structurally broken company.
Your thoughts

Did everyone notice that Interim CEO Naylor spent over $100 k of his own hard earned money on CSL shares today at around $98 and Director Watkins spent around $250k.
Does this mean that they see value.
Your thoughts?

When you look at the past couple of weeks when my CSL shares dropped alarmingly at first there are a couple of positive signs that makes me believe the market overshot the downturn.
Just my opinion but the 5.2 billion write down of Vifor means that it now is a very small part of CSL Business Maybe as little as 5 percent.
Behring now makes up as much as 80 to 85 percent and Vaccines around 15. So the Vifor debacle theoretically has been watered down considerably.
Now let’s look at the Vaccine business. They recently signed contracts with Canada and America to service Central America. So this is picking up and looks much more positive than it did.
Behring is growing in demand and it has been estimated that demand for plasma based products will increase by 30 percent by 2030. They are improving efficiency and margins which has been the problem since Covid.
Now let’s put aside the negative sentiment and the issues with the board and talk about CSLs current performance.
It isn’t bad. It’s actually pretty enviable but not at its previous success levels. But it is improving.
ROIC is around 11.45 and growing WACC is 6 to 8. So ROIC is comfortably above WACC.
Turnover 15.2 bn. Profit 3.1bn
CSL was at a RSI of 11 after the fall which makes it extremely oversold and even after recovering to near $100 its RSI is around 24. Still oversold.
So for me the punishment was too harsh.
The big question is what comes next.
With what I’ve just outlined im hoping for a small bounce.
Then im hoping that there is no more bad news in august and a slight improvement in turnover profit and ROIC. A new CEO and who knows there may be a slow road to recovery.
Your thoughts?

I’ve been watching CSL since it spectacular fall to $93 odd dollars before recovering modestly to where it currently closed today at $98.47.
Wow. Who saw that coming.
Anyway I’ve been watching it since it’s screaming 30 percent drop wondering what the hell just happened?
I understand that the market reacted violently to the recent 90 day update but wow. In my view it dropped way below its inherent value.
Let me explain. CSL is still highly profitable. 15.2 bn turnover to a 3.1bn net profit. So the current share price drop seems a bit over done. Anyway the market moves on sentiment as much as it does real financial outcomes.
As we know this is more about poor decisions made by the company that lost some money. Quite a bit actually. But the market is missing the still highly profitable bit. And profits climbing bit. So to me this is a wait for good news to realise inherent value time.
Anyway back to the market. The last few days have been encouraging. We have seen high volumes since the fall and quite a bit of volatility early on. But the last few days have been less volatile with higher lows and a very tight trading range. Today the low was in the high 97s. It opened at 98.35 and closed at 98.47.
So let me ask could this be a base forming?