Trmed
Thor Medical ASA (TRMED) is awaiting final commissioning
Key reasons to invest now or keep an eye on the stock!
The biggest risk has already been eliminated
Mechanical Completion has been confirmed (April 17). The plant is physically complete, on schedule, and within budget.
We are now in the commissioning phase—the final major technical phase before production. Once this is complete, the biggest construction risk will be gone.
Good entry point while the market is calm
• The stock has been trading sideways for a while (around the NOK 4.4–5.5 range).
• Qube still has an active short position of 0.80%, which is weighing on the share price.
• At the same time, there is very little willingness to sell among large, long-term owners (Scatec, Kistefos, and others).
This presents a relatively attractive entry point ahead of the next catalysts.
Clear and imminent timeline
• Commissioning is currently underway (April–July/September).
• Production start is guided for Q3 2026 (just 2–5 months away).
• First commercial deliveries will begin to fulfill parts of the solid order book of ~NOK 850 million.
Strong foundation and unique position
• The company is fully funded through to positive cash flow by the end of 2027.
• Thor Medical is currently the only company near commercial scale with reactor-free production of alpha emitters (Pb-212, Ra-224, Th-228).
• Demand is growing rapidly, and they already have several strategic agreements (including with ARTBIO and an undisclosed big pharma customer).
Asymmetric upside
While awaiting the completion of commissioning, the market still does not fully price in commercial production. If commissioning goes well, we could see:
• Several positive updates in May/June
• A new Arctic FLASH
• Increased short-covering as momentum picks up
Realistic outlook
Commissioning is the phase where most industrial projects face the risk of minor delays. But by investing now, you get:
• An entry point before the big “production news”
• Potential for a technical rally and short squeeze
• Time to monitor progress
Key assumptions for valuation
• Order book: ~850 MNOK (multi-year agreements)
• AlphaOne capacity: Originally 15,000 doses/year, expanded to ~21,000 doses/year
• Price per dose: Estimated 12,000–20,000 NOK (depending on customer and volume)
• Potential revenue at full capacity: NOK 250–400 million per year
• Margins: Expected high gross margins (60–80%) once production is scaled up, typical for isotope suppliers
Possible valuation methods once production is underway
EV/Sales multiple
• At NOK 300 million in annual revenue (2027 estimate):
• 10x → NOK 3 billion market value (~NOK 8.3 per share)
• 15x → NOK 4.5 billion (~NOK 12.5 per share)