u/AntitheistArchangel

Are Trump’s approval ratings low? Yes. Does that means 2026 will be a blue wave? No.

Now, given the gerrymandering push, there are probably plenty of Democrats who agree with me. However, I’m not talking about redistricting. Even in a scenario where red states’ new maps don’t survive court challenges, I think that 2026 will be a harder battle than Democrats think.

You see, while Trump’s approval ratings have fallen massively since he retook office, that doesn’t necessarily mean people will vote for Democrats in November. Sure, there are probably some swing voters that voted for Trump in 2024 and might decide to flip, but Democrats’ approval ratings are currently as bad than Trump’s, if not worse. Thus, 2026 isn’t going to be a free win for Dems.

Additionally, while Trump’s winning coalition in 2024 is a shell of its former self, so is the Democratic coalition. I read some recent reports on Black voters and was surprised by what I saw. Harry Enten found about two weeks ago that Trump had a 16 percent approval rating among Black Americans. Obviously, that number isn’t high, but it’s still higher than the 12 percent he had at this point during his first term. Additionally, Axios found that the number of Black voters who self-identify as Democrats fell from 77 percent in 2020 to 66 percent in 2023. Worth mentioning also is that young Black voters multiple generations removed from Jim Crow and Black voters from Africa and the Caribbean account for a growing share of the Black electorate; about 20 percent of Black Americans are first- or second-generation Americans. Those voters didn’t experience Jim Crow, either, and ones from Africa especially come from much more conservative cultures. With the recent gutting of Section 2 of the VRA, Democrats are warning Black Americans about the loss of their voting power. However, with a growing portion of Black voters, that message is likely to fall flat.

Democrats also still aren’t doing enough to court working-class voters. Obviously, Trump’s approval on the cost of living, an issue the working class cares a lot about, is very low. However, as I said, that doesn’t mean they’ll vote for Democrats. In fact, even the Democrats running on affordability have abandoned those promises. Spanberger has massively raised taxes in VA. Mamdani has called for ridiculous tax hikes he was forced to walk back. Honestly, the Dems who impose such policies are basically gifts to Republicans, as it means more businesses will move to Texas and Florida. They also alienate people living paycheck to paycheck, which includes most working-class folk. In fact, socialists in general alienate them, as working people need a strong private sector in order to survive.

The other thing Democrats are overlooking is candidate quality, even though it’s more important to elections than any issue plaguing this country. 2022 would’ve been a walk in the park for the GOP had they nominated good Senate candidates. The same might happen this year if Dems aren’t careful. Unfortunately, just like in 2022, the more objectionable candidates seem to have the upper hand. Graham Platner - a totally-not-antisemitic, totally-blue-collar (he grew up rich) champagne socialist with a Nazi tattoo and a history of advocacy for violence and rape apologia - is the Dems’ presumptive nominee for Senate in Maine. Do they want Susan Collins to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat (again)? And before you bring up polling, polling showed Collins’s defeat was near-certain in 2020, and guess what happened? Similarly, the frontrunner in Michigan’s primary is Abdul El-Sayed, who campaigned alongside Hasan Piker of all people, aka someone who said America deserved 9/11, called for China to invade Taiwan, expressed support for Iran and its proxies, and blamed the US for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tellingly, El-Sayed is the only one of the three Democratic candidates in Michigan that *loses* to Mike Rogers in a head-to-head matchup according to polls. Race to the White House listed MI as a tilt blue state back when McMorrow was the frontrunner; it’s now a complete toss-up. Democrats are lucky they had a normal incumbent in GA and no one willing to challenge Cooper in NC.

Now, you might want to bring up the generic ballot according to AtlasIntel, which gave Democrats a pretty large advantage. AtlasIntel also has a tendency to miss when Trump’s name isn’t on the ballot. Plus, when you factor in redistricting, the national popular vote matters less and less. For these reasons, Democrats shouldn’t take the coming midterms for granted. Democrats have taken voters for granted for years, and it has only hurt us.