🚨 PSA: Be VERY careful with GRRR — my risk model threw multiple hard fails 🚨
Not trying to tell anyone what to buy or sell — just sharing something that came out of a quantitative screener I built. I’m not posting the screener itself, but the output was bad enough that I think it’s worth warning people who might be looking at GRRR right now.
Here’s the breakdown of what triggered the alerts:
🔴 Business Quality — HARD FAIL
- ROIC: 4.0% → way below sector norms
- Gross Margin: 33.4% → thin, suggests weak pricing power This alone would have kicked it out of the model. Poor capital efficiency + low margins = structurally weak business economics.
🔴 Financial Health — HARD FAIL
- Debt/Equity: 0.07 → low debt (good)
- Current Ratio: 3.33 → strong liquidity But the model still hard‑failed it because…
Major red flags:
- Deeply negative FCF yield (-9.3%)
- Negative free cash flow 2 years in a row
- Equity issuance at ~20%/yr → They’re diluting shareholders to survive
- Accruals ratio elevated (6.4%) → Earnings not converting to cash
- AR growing +86% vs revenue +36% → Potential aggressive revenue recognition or customer concentration
- Working capital deterioration → Cash conversion cycle worsening
🔴 Valuation — FAIL
- EV/EBITDA: 23.7x → not cheap for a company with this risk profile
- Stale fundamentals → Last filing was 140 days ago → Stock is -49% off 52‑week high → Valuation ratios may be using outdated earnings against a crashed price
This is a classic trap: looks “cheap” because the price fell, but the fundamentals haven’t been updated.
📉 Growth — FAIL
- Revenue growth is strong (+35.7%), but:
- Gross margin contracting
- 2 of last 4 quarters show deterioration
Top‑line growth doesn’t matter if the economics are getting worse.
📉 Momentum / Technicals
Not part of the rating, but:
- Below 200D MA by -11.1%
- Mixed MA structure
- Institutional selling pressure
Not a great sign.
TL;DR — 9 major warnings, 2 hard fails, persistent cash burn, dilution, deteriorating fundamentals
Again, not financial advice — just sharing what my model flagged.
If you’re in this name or thinking about it, double‑check the latest filings and make sure you understand the dilution + cash burn situation.
I do want to also post that the balance sheet, the analyst targets, and the IFRS‑vs‑adjusted earnings distinction are improving, however the above flags stay.
I would like to hear your outputs on the above.
Stay safe out there.