Some guy posted on twitter: a $10 entry with a potential $10,000 payout on Kalshi. His FanDuel comparison showed $6,400 for what he described as the same picks.

That's a $3,600 difference on a $10 ticket. These were advertised payouts if the picks hit. the post doesn't show a $10,000 win.

I'd be curious to see both quotes taken at the same time. A gap that big is worth checking, especially once you account for fees, boosts and what happens if a player doesn't play. One posted comparison only tells us so much about Kalshi vs FanDuel.

For anyone wondering how Kalshi parlays work, Kalshi calls them combos. You combine several outcomes and get a live quote for the whole ticket. If one leg settles at zero, the combo pays zero. A player who doesn't play can also change the payout under that market's rules.

I get the appeal of a ticket like this. You look through the names and can picture each guy scoring. Getting all of them right on the same ticket is where it gets difficult. That $10,000 number doesn't tell you how likely it is to happen.

The version of this ticket I'd like to see is the one with a leg removed. How much does the payout drop? Which pick was only there because it pushed the number past $10,000?

Would you keep the full touchdown parlay, or drop your least convincing pick and take the smaller potential payout?

Trader vito3corleone apparently started actively trading around August 23. Roughly 10 days later:

16 predictions ~$17.1M volume +$4.52M profit

And these weren't hundreds of tiny bets either. A few positions did most of the damage.

His biggest one was Arsenal.

He put roughly $3.71M on Arsenal at ~66.7% against Aston Villa. Arsenal won 1-0.

Result: about $5.56M back, or +$1.85M profit from one match.

Then there was:

• Brentford: +$1.11M
• Racing Club: +$912K

The funny part is this wasn't some perfect 100% win-rate account either. His profile also shows several six-figure losing positions.

He just sized the winners well.

Polymarket's current sports leaderboard has him sitting at roughly +$4.52M overall from only 16 predictions.

Bro basically speedran the prediction market leaderboard in a week and a half.

One trader has around $308K tied up in basically two bets:

• Jesus Christ does NOT return before 2027
• Satoshi does NOT move any Bitcoin in 2026

That's it. That's basically the portfolio.

The positions have reportedly been sitting there for about five months.

If both settle NO, he makes roughly $13.6K.

With the money locked for around nine months total, that's roughly 5.9% annualized.

So instead of buying bonds, this guy's yield strategy is basically:

Jesus doesn't come back.
Satoshi doesn't wake up.
Collect interest.

his profile**:** https://polymarket.com/@waterwaterwater

Current odds are roughly 1% YES on Jesus returning and 5% YES on Satoshi moving BTC.

Would you park $308K here for ~6% a year?

Back in February, an on-chain researcher started digging into Polymarket earnings markets and noticed a really weird pattern.

Some accounts would bet pretty normally on most companies...

...then suddenly start betting much bigger whenever the company was audited by KPMG.

One wallet was small on non-KPMG markets, but went big on Wells Fargo, CarMax and Five Below.

Another account's only big bets were KPMG companies.

And the Wells Fargo market apparently completely flipped the night before earnings came out.

The researcher was careful not to straight-up call it insider trading, but the whole thing basically boiled down to:

>why are these guys suddenly gods at predicting earnings whenever KPMG is involved?

It got enough attention that Columbia economics professor Rajiv Sethi called the pattern “compelling evidence” of trading ahead of earnings announcements.

Then... nothing.

Fast forward six months.

The Wall Street Journal now reports that federal authorities are investigating a KPMG employee suspected of using confidential information to bet on whether a public company would beat earnings expectations on a prediction market.

lol.

So the timeline is basically:

February:
“Guys, why do these KPMG earnings wallets look weird as fuck?”

August:
“Federal authorities are investigating a KPMG employee for prediction-market insider trading.”

Important part: there's currently no proof that the KPMG employee under investigation is actually behind those wallets from February.

They could be completely unrelated.

But if the feds eventually connect the two, that original thread is going to age hilariously well.

Prediction markets might be the only place where random internet detectives can watch suspicious trades happening in public and yell “INSIDER” months before investigators show up.

Now I really want to know one thing:

Are the feds looking at the same wallets?

A 21-year-old recent college grad named Rahil Prakash used AI to build a professional-looking polling website called Median Strategies.

The site had barely any audience and no real polling operation behind it.

It then published a completely fake poll claiming LA Mayor Karen Bass was beating Nithya Raman by nearly 12 points.

Somehow, the poll got picked up by a newspaper.

Then Bass’s campaign shared it as proof that she was “gaining momentum.”

And then the prediction-market speedrun began.

Within six minutes of the poll being posted:

• Around 20 Polymarket accounts started buying thousands of Bass contracts
• On Kalshi, Bass moved from roughly 63¢ to 65¢ within 15 minutes

The market had been so quiet that a typical trade during the previous week was reportedly under $10.

So the full pipeline was basically:

21-year-old makes up numbers with AI

↓

News outlet reports the numbers

↓

Mayor promotes the numbers

↓

People immediately bet real money on the numbers

A few days later, Median Strategies deleted the polls, shut down the site and announced that the whole thing had just been a:

>“short-term social experiment”

The Guardian eventually traced the website back to Prakash through domain and GitHub records.

He admitted creating it and said he wanted to test whether fake polling could penetrate the political ecosystem.

Turns out the answer was:

yes, extremely easily

Prakash says he never traded any related prediction markets and made no money from the experiment. There is currently no public evidence showing otherwise.

But even without a profit motive, this is a pretty wild proof of concept.

I’ve been watching this Polymarket account for a couple weeks and the PnL chart is basically a heart attack.

Trader: Djdjdjekekek

Mostly huge esports bets. Dota 2, CS2, LoL etc.

A couple weeks ago he was sitting around +$2.2M all-time.

Then came August 12–13.

He reportedly lost roughly:

• -$1.7M in one day
• -$1.2M the next
• around -$2.9M total

That took him from millionaire to roughly -$830K.

You'd think this is where a normal person logs off.

Apparently not.

He kept firing absolutely massive bets.

Then he went on a ridiculous heater.

Some of his Polymarket wins included:

• +$2.28M on TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit
• +$1.98M on Iron Wing vs BoomBoys
• +$1.26M on FURIA vs FUT
• +$1.35M on Team Spirit vs Team Liquid

At one point last week he had climbed all the way to #1 on Polymarket’s monthly leaderboard with +$4.85M PnL.

So the storyline was basically:

+$2.2M

-$830K

+$4.85M monthly / #1 on Polymarket

Surely this is where our hero finally takes some money off the table.

lol

Current trackers now have him at roughly:

-$658K lifetime PnL

He lost about $6.5M over the last week, with one CS2 market alone showing a roughly -$2M loss.

His total trading volume is now around $168 MILLION despite the account only joining Polymarket in June.

And somehow his win rate is only around 41%.

This might genuinely be the most degen PnL chart on prediction markets right now.

Imagine making millions, losing millions, making even more millions, becoming #1 on the leaderboard...

...and then just continuing to bet until you're negative again.

At this point I don’t even want to copy his trades.

I just want season 2.

Sources

• Current wallet stats / PnL
• Polymarket profile
• Polymarket esports leaderboard + biggest wins
• The original ~$2.9M drawdown discussion
• Earlier $477K Dota win breakdown

This case somehow keeps getting funnier.

Prosecutors say Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo was trading on Polymarket as AlphaRaccoon and had access to unreleased Google Search ranking data.

He allegedly used that info to bet on a bunch of Google-related markets before the results were public and made more than $1.2M.

Now his lawyers are trying to get the case thrown out.

And one of their main arguments is basically:

these Polymarket contracts weren't financial swaps — they were just bets.

Which is pretty funny considering prediction markets have spent years arguing the exact opposite whenever regulators call them gambling.

So we’ve reached:

Prediction markets:
“We are not gambling.”

Guy accused of insider trading on prediction markets:
“Actually, this was gambling.”

The defense also argues that he was living in Switzerland, using Polymarket’s international platform, so US commodities laws shouldn’t apply the way prosecutors claim.

No ruling yet, and obviously the allegations haven’t been proven.

But this might be my favorite prediction-market legal argument so far.

So what are we calling these things now: financial markets or casinos?

Sources

• DOJ case / allegations
• Full motion to dismiss
• WIRED write-up

I thought this was just one whale.

Then it started looking a lot stranger.

A Reddit user digging through Polymarket profiles surfaced four very new accounts that all appear to have done basically the same thing:

• opened or recently funded a fresh account,
• made exactly one prediction,
• chose the same market,
• took the same side,
• and entered in almost the same price band.

That market:

Will the CLARITY Act become law in 2026?

And all four of them bet NO.

Here’s the breakdown from the community analysis:

• VelvetNova27 -> roughly $818K on NO
• blahblah344 -> roughly $439K on NO
• EamonnD1812 -> roughly $394K on NO
• 1916JConnolly -> roughly $133K on NO

Total estimated cost across the four positions:

~$1.78 million

At the time the trades were surfaced, the post estimated the four accounts were already sitting on roughly $85K+ in combined unrealized profit.

The weird part is not that someone is bearish on the bill.

Prediction markets have already turned sharply against the CLARITY Act. The Polymarket market is now around 14–18% YES and 82–86% NO, depending on when you check.

The weird part is the shape of the activity:

4 fresh accounts
1 trade each
same market
same side
similar entry prices

That naturally raises the question:

Are these actually four independent traders who all reached the same conclusion?

Or is this more likely one larger allocation split across multiple identities?

Business Insider independently confirmed that one Polymarket user put more than $818,000 into NO contracts, and that another trader also committed roughly $677,000 against the bill through multiple purchases.

That still does not prove the four accounts are linked.

And to be clear:

• there is no public evidence of insider trading,
• no proof that one person controls all four accounts,
• and no proof that the trades were illegal or coordinated.

This could just be a handful of large traders making the same macro bet:

that the CLARITY Act is far less likely to become law in 2026 than crypto bulls want to believe.

Still, the pattern is suspicious enough to make the market much more interesting than a normal “whale bought NO” story.

Last verified: August 27, 2026

Quick answer: current Kalshi promo code and $25 bonus

The current offer attached to this Kalshi referral link gives eligible new U.S. users $25 in bonus trading credit after they:

1. Sign up through this link.
2. Complete identity verification.
3. Deposit $10.
4. Place their first qualifying trade. Under the current offer, any market works.

Claim the current Kalshi $25 sign-up bonus

The Kalshi referral code is ArtNoLimit and should attach automatically when you use the link.

Before depositing, open your Rewards section and confirm that the $25 offer appears on your account. Kalshi can run different referral and partner promotions at the same time, so the offer shown inside your account is the final version that applies to you.

Disclosure: This is my referral link. I may receive a separate referral reward if an eligible user signs up and completes the requirements. This is a user-written guide, not an official Kalshi announcement.

Kalshi promo code for August and September 2026

Here are the current offer details in one place:

Offer detail	Current terms
Kalshi referral code	ArtNoLimit
New-user bonus	$25 bonus trading credit
Required deposit	$10
Trading requirement	Place your first qualifying trade
Eligible markets	Any market under the current offer
Identity verification	Required
Eligibility	New eligible U.S. users
Where to confirm it	Rewards section
Credit expiration	Normally 7 days after issuance unless your account states otherwise
Is the original credit cash?	Usually no; check the terms shown in your account

This is a limited-time promotion. I will update this Reddit thread if the offer attached to the link changes.

How to get the Kalshi $25 sign-up bonus

1. Open the Kalshi bonus link before creating the account

Start through the referral link so that code ArtNoLimit can attach automatically during registration.

Do this before making your first deposit. Adding a referral code after depositing may not be possible.

2. Create a new Kalshi account

Register with your email, Google account, or Apple account and enter the requested personal information.

The promotion is intended for eligible new users.

3. Complete Kalshi identity verification

Complete the KYC process using the identification requested by Kalshi.

Your account must be verified before it can trade and qualify for the referral reward.

4. Confirm the $25 offer before depositing

Open the Rewards or referral section and check that:

• ArtNoLimit is attached;
• the reward shown is $25;
• the requirement matches the current deposit-and-first-trade offer.

This step matters because different Kalshi links and promo codes can have different requirements.

5. Deposit $10

Fund the account with the required $10 deposit.

Do not deposit before checking that the referral code and bonus are attached.

6. Place your first trade

Open any eligible Kalshi market and place your first qualifying trade.

The current offer says any market works. The trade does not need to be a winner to complete the required action, although the trade itself can still lose money.

7. Check for the $25 bonus

The $25 bonus should appear shortly after the required steps are completed.

Check:

Menu → Activity → Credit

You should also check the Rewards section. If Kalshi displays an Unlock your referral bonus banner or a Claim button, open it and complete the displayed claim step.

What changed from the old Kalshi offers?

Older Reddit posts may still describe:

• Deposit $10 and get a $20 bonus.
• Trade $25 and receive a randomized $15–$500 bonus.
• Trade $25 and get a fixed $25 bonus.

Those instructions refer to previous or different Kalshi promotions.

For the referral link in this guide, the current communicated offer is:

Deposit $10, place your first trade, and receive a fixed $25 bonus credit.

Do not follow an old Reddit guide without checking the Rewards section attached to your own account.

Why do some Kalshi promo code pages say “Trade $25, Get $25”?

Kalshi can run multiple referral, publisher, and partner offers at the same time.

Some current partner promo codes require a new user to complete $25 in total trades before receiving a $25 credit. The offer attached to the link in this post is communicated as a $10 deposit followed by the first qualifying trade.

That is why two legitimate Kalshi promo code pages may show different instructions.

Use the requirements displayed in your Rewards section rather than combining steps from several different promotions.

Kalshi referral code vs promo code vs bonus link

People use these phrases interchangeably, but there are small differences.

A Kalshi referral code is the text connected to an invite. The code used here is:

ArtNoLimit

A Kalshi referral link or Kalshi bonus link includes the referral automatically:

kalshi.com/r/ArtNoLimit

A separate Kalshi promo code may belong to a publisher or partner campaign and may have a different deposit, trading requirement, bonus amount, or deadline.

Using the direct link is simpler because you normally do not need to type a separate code manually.

Can you add the Kalshi referral code after signing up?

Sometimes, but it is safer to apply it during registration.

Kalshi says a referral code may be added within 72 hours after account creation and only before the first deposit, whichever comes first.

If you have already deposited, applied another code, or passed the time window, the referral usually cannot be added or replaced retroactively.

Is the Kalshi $25 bonus withdrawable?

Treat the $25 reward as bonus trading credit, not immediate cash, unless the terms displayed on your account explicitly say otherwise.

Kalshi’s referral FAQ says the original referral credit usually cannot be withdrawn directly. It is designed to be used for trading.

Profits generated from using the credit may become withdrawable after the relevant trades settle and any applicable requirements are satisfied.

Common Kalshi promo code mistakes

• Creating the account without opening the referral link first.
• Depositing before confirming that ArtNoLimit is attached.
• Following instructions from an expired $20 or up-to-$500 promotion.
• Using a different partner code and expecting this referral offer.
• Assuming the $25 credit is immediately withdrawable cash.
• Forgetting to check Rewards or Activity for a Claim button.
• Letting the bonus credit expire before using it.
• Trying to claim a U.S. referral incentive from an ineligible location.

Kalshi promo code FAQ

What is the current Kalshi promo code on Reddit?

The referral code used in this guide is ArtNoLimit. The direct link should attach it automatically during registration.

What is the current Kalshi sign-up bonus?

The current offer attached to this link is a fixed $25 bonus trading credit after a $10 deposit and the first qualifying trade.

How much do I need to deposit on Kalshi?

The current referral offer requires a $10 deposit.

Do I have to trade $25 to receive the bonus?

Not under the current instructions provided for this particular referral offer. It requires the $10 deposit and your first qualifying trade.

Other Kalshi partner codes may require $25 in total trade volume, which is why you may see different instructions elsewhere.

Always follow the requirement displayed in your Rewards section.

Can the first Kalshi trade be on any market?

The current offer says any market works, provided Kalshi counts it as a qualifying trade.

Does my first trade have to win?

No. The qualifying action is placing the required trade, not winning it.

The position itself still carries financial risk.

Can an existing Kalshi account receive the $25 bonus?

The offer is primarily for new users.

A referral code may sometimes be added within 72 hours of account creation, but only before the first deposit. A previously funded account generally cannot add the referral afterward.

Does the Kalshi bonus work outside the United States?

Kalshi’s current referral FAQ says referral incentives are available only to eligible U.S. users.

Where can I find the bonus after qualifying?

Check Menu → Activity → Credit and the Rewards section.

If an Unlock or Claim button appears, complete that step.

How quickly does the Kalshi bonus arrive?

It should appear shortly after the qualifying steps are completed. Timing can vary, so check Activity and Rewards before contacting support.

How long does the Kalshi bonus last?

Kalshi says referral credits normally expire seven days after issuance unless another expiration date is displayed in your account.

Will this offer still work in September 2026?

This guide was last verified on August 27, 2026. The promotion is limited-time and remains current only while the $25 offer appears in your Rewards section.

I will update the thread if the attached promotion changes.

Is this an official Kalshi Reddit post?

No. This is an independent Reddit guide explaining the referral offer. The referral program and bonus are operated by Kalshi.

Final checks before depositing

Kalshi says referral amounts and requirements can depend on the program attached to an account. You can read the official Kalshi referral program FAQ.

Before depositing, confirm these three things:

1. Referral code ArtNoLimit is attached.
2. Your Rewards section displays the $25 bonus.
3. The requirement shown matches the $10 deposit and first-trade offer.

Event contract trading involves risk and can result in losing money. The bonus does not guarantee a profit.

Comment with the exact offer shown in your Rewards section and how long the credit took to arrive. I will keep this post updated for other people searching Reddit for the current Kalshi promo code.

Use the current Kalshi bonus link and attach referral code ArtNoLimit

I always assumed these 15-minute crypto prediction markets worked in the obvious direction:

BTC moves on Binance → Kalshi reprices

Makes sense. Binance has the giant spot/perp market, and the prediction market is basically reacting to it.

But I came across some second-by-second data this week that makes this a lot more interesting.

The question was basically:

When Kalshi’s 15-minute BTC market moves, does BTC on Binance tend to move in the same direction immediately afterward?

Apparently, increasingly yes.

The correlation between a Kalshi move and Binance's move over the following ~2 seconds:

January: 0.036 June: 0.145 August: 0.173

So we're not talking about some magical 90% predictive signal here. 0.173 is still fairly weak on its own.

What caught my attention is that the relationship has increased almost 5x since January.

And if that's real, the interesting question is why.

One possibility is that the people trading these markets aren't just watching Binance and clicking YES/NO.

Market makers and automated traders can be looking at:

• multiple CEX order books
• perp positioning
• liquidations
• futures
• order-flow imbalance
• other proprietary signals

They form a short-term view of where BTC is about to go, then express that view in the prediction market.

Which creates a strange feedback loop:

traders anticipate BTC move → Kalshi reprices → BTC move appears on Binance

At that point Kalshi isn't just reacting to Bitcoin.

Its market price is effectively becoming a public signal produced by a bunch of competing short-term forecasting systems.

There are some obvious caveats.

Correlation doesn't prove Kalshi is causing or even independently predicting the move. Both markets could simply be reacting to the same information with slightly different latency.

And the test I really want to see is the opposite direction:

Binance move → Kalshi over the next 0–2 seconds

Then compare the two.

But if this lead keeps getting stronger as these markets get more liquid, that's a genuinely interesting development.

We might eventually reach a point where watching the prediction market becomes useful even if you have absolutely no intention of trading prediction markets.

Anyone here with access to proper tick data who can test the lead/lag in both directions?

This is probably one of the crazier prediction-market studies I’ve read.

Researchers from Stanford and Singapore Management University analyzed Polymarket’s 5-minute Bitcoin Up/Down markets and found a very strange pattern around settlement.

The basic contract is simple:

Every five minutes, you bet whether BTC will finish above or below the price where that window started.

But unlike a sports result or an election, the thing deciding the bet is itself a tradable asset.

And Bitcoin can move very quickly when enough market orders hit at once.

According to the research paper, after Polymarket launched its 5-minute BTC markets, Binance spot activity began behaving very differently in the final 10 seconds before settlement.

Order flow suddenly spiked.

BTC moved toward the level needed to decide the Polymarket contract.

Then, immediately after settlement, part of that move reversed.

The effect was strongest in markets where moving Bitcoin just a little could flip which side would receive the $1 payout.

And this is where it gets wild.

The researchers looked at contracts where one side was already priced at 90%–100% probability with only 10 seconds remaining.

In normal cycles, the underdog won only about 1% of the time.

But in cycles classified as having a strong settlement-time push against the favorite:

the underdog won 34.2% of the time.

A position the market considered almost certain was suddenly being flipped roughly one out of every three times.

The researchers then reconstructed wallet-level PnL from Polymarket’s public on-chain trades.

Out of roughly 243,000 traders, they identified a cohort of just 821 wallets whose profit pattern was concentrated in these pushed settlement cycles.

Those 821 wallets captured approximately:

+$8.2 million

in the affected cycles over roughly two months.

Outside those cycles, the same group was approximately break-even.

So who lost the money?

According to the study:

93% of the losses fell on retail/other traders.

Retail accounts lost around $7.6 million, while market makers lost roughly $600,000.

The proposed mechanism is surprisingly simple.

Imagine you own a large number of cheap DOWN shares on Polymarket.

Bitcoin is slightly above the settlement threshold with seconds remaining, so DOWN is almost worthless.

Instead of accepting the loss, someone can potentially sell enough BTC on the underlying spot market to push Bitcoin below the threshold for a few seconds.

If that changes the Chainlink settlement price:

DOWN goes from nearly $0 → $1.

Once the prediction market has settled, there is no longer any reason to keep pushing BTC.

So the temporary spot move can reverse.

In other words, the profit on the prediction-market position can potentially be much larger than the cost of briefly moving Bitcoin.

The paper found exactly the kind of footprint you would expect from that behavior:

large final-second order flow → settlement flips → immediate price reversal.

There is an important caveat.

The researchers cannot directly prove that the same people controlling the profitable Polymarket wallets were also placing the corresponding Binance orders.

Binance accounts are not publicly linkable to Polygon wallets.

So “821 confirmed manipulators” would be too strong.

The researchers instead identify the wallets from their realized PnL behavior and argue that the combination of settlement timing, spot-market pushes, reversals, Polymarket positioning and where the profits appear is consistent with coordinated settlement manipulation.

Still, the numbers are pretty insane:

• 821 wallets
• $8.2M captured
• $7.6M lost by retail
• 93% of losses attributed to retail
• 90%+ favorites flipped 34.2% of the time during opposite-direction pushed cycles
• Most of the weird activity concentrated in the final seconds before settlement

And technically, nobody needed to hack Polymarket.

The potential exploit was simply understanding that the oracle price deciding the prediction market could itself be moved.

That seems like a much more fundamental problem than a smart-contract bug.

One of the strangest prediction-market settlement disputes I have seen has now turned into a $170,000 lawsuit.

The underlying trade happened in March. The fresh development is that the bettor is now taking Polymarket to court over the unpaid position.

Polymarket had opened a contract asking whether Donald Trump would say “Ayatollah” or “Khamenei” between March 9 and March 15.

The written market rules said a publicly accessible verbal mention recorded on audio or video would count.

The rules explained how plurals, possessives and compound words would be treated.

They did not explicitly say that Trump had to pronounce the name perfectly.

A bettor named Jesús Manuel Gonzalez Hernandez says he spent approximately $300 buying 170,000 YES shares.

If the market resolved YES, those shares would have paid $170,000.

Then, during a March 15 press gaggle aboard Air Force One, the published transcript records Trump saying:

>“They showed about 250,000 people in a square saying how much they love Khamenei.”

The transcript records Trump using Khamenei again a few minutes later.

Despite that, the contract resolved NO.

The 170,000 YES shares paid $0.

According to the report on the lawsuit, the explanation for the NO resolution was that Trump may have mispronounced the name or may have been referring to Ruhollah Khomeini, the former Iranian leader who died in 1989, rather than Khamenei.

Hernandez’s lawyers argue that the written rules never required exact pronunciation and never specified which person named Khamenei had to be referenced.

They also argue that interpreting Trump’s comment as a reference to Khomeini makes little sense in the context of what he was discussing.

Polymarket declined to comment on the pending lawsuit. No court has ruled on whether Hernandez is entitled to the money.

To me, the bigger issue is not even this particular bet.

It is whether a prediction market can use a pronunciation distinction to decide a six-figure payout when no pronunciation standard appeared in the rules before people traded.

A former engineer at one of the world’s top quantitative trading firms says he has made more than $7 million trading on Kalshi.

The trader, known publicly as “lad.”, previously spent several years working as an engineer at Hudson River Trading.

He reportedly discovered prediction markets while serving a non-compete period, when he was temporarily restricted from joining another traditional trading firm.

Instead of waiting it out, he started trading events on Kalshi.

His public Kalshi profile now shows millions of dollars in profit across hundreds of thousands of predictions.

And apparently, Wall Street has noticed.

According to a recent eFinancialCareers report, hedge funds and proprietary trading firms are now offering elite prediction-market traders compensation packages worth approximately $1 million to $2 million.

Recruiters say firms increasingly want traders who can prove they already know how to make money on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Some quant firms are reportedly even updating their non-compete agreements to explicitly cover prediction-market trading.

That means an employee placed on paid gardening leave may no longer be able to spend the break independently trading event contracts and building a public track record.

The reason firms are paying attention is fairly obvious.

A successful prediction-market trader needs a strange mix of skills:

• Probability and statistics
• Fast execution and automation
• Understanding of market microstructure
• The ability to interpret complicated settlement rules
• Deep knowledge of specific areas such as politics, economics or sports

Recruiters quoted in the reporting said some active prediction-market quants are earning between $500,000 and $1 million, but only a small number are good enough to receive serious institutional offers.

So the opportunity is real, but this clearly is not the average trader’s result.

Still, the career decision here is interesting.

P.S. Eligible new users can qualify for a randomized Kalshi bonus of up to $500 after depositing $10 and completing $25 in cumulative trades.

George Santos found a prediction market he could influence better than almost anyone else:

Whether George Santos would attend the State of the Union.

According to the official CFTC order, Santos initially accumulated 30,874 YES contracts on Kalshi.

He then asked his followers on X whether he should wear a “muted or serious” suit to the speech or a bedazzled one.

Several hours later, the YES price had jumped from 15¢ to 70¢.

Santos sold his entire YES position and made $3,448.43.

The following day, he publicly insisted that he still planned to attend:

>I’ll be there in the gallery haunting them all lol.

He also posted a video saying:

>I am going to be there for the State of the Union in the gallery guys.

After those posts, YES moved from approximately 40¢ to 70¢.

Then, about 40 minutes later, Santos started building a 23,855-contract NO position.

At around 7 p.m., his train to Washington was canceled. His flight had already been canceled the previous day.

An X user then directly asked him:

>Are you actually going to the State of the Union?

Santos replied:

>I am.

According to the CFTC, he did not publicly disclose that both his flight and train had already been canceled.

The following day, IP records showed Santos accessing Kalshi from his residence.

When he later posted that he was watching the State of the Union from an airport television, the YES price collapsed from approximately 73¢ to 2¢.

His NO position produced another $14,390.57 in profit.

The CFTC concluded that Santos made misleading public statements and omitted material information while trading a market whose outcome he could personally influence.

He agreed to:

• Return $17,569.98 in unlawful trading profits
• Pay an additional $17,500 civil penalty
• Accept a three-year trading ban

Santos settled the case without admitting wrongdoing. His lawyer said that he genuinely intended to attend but changed his plans because of the weather.

Kalshi reportedly identified the suspicious activity and referred it to regulators.

So which conclusion makes more sense?

Kalshi’s surveillance system successfully caught someone trading a market he could personally influence?

Or:

People should never be allowed to trade prediction markets about their own actions in the first place?

P.S. Eligible new users can qualify for a randomized Kalshi bonus of up to $500 after depositing $10 and completing $25 in cumulative trades.

This may be one of the clearest prediction-market insider trading cases we’ve seen so far.

According to AP and ABC News, White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez allegedly used advance knowledge of Trump’s speeches to make more than $100,000 on Kalshi’s Mentions markets.

Those markets let traders buy contracts on specific words or topics Trump might mention during a speech. The reported activity included bets connected to major appearances such as the State of the Union.

For context, one of Kalshi’s State of the Union “What will Trump say?” markets alone recorded more than $28.3 million in volume.

Perez was initially placed on unpaid leave. A White House official has now confirmed that he “no longer works in the federal government,” although it is still unclear whether he resigned or was fired.

The important detail is that Kalshi says its own surveillance team flagged the suspicious trades, investigated them and referred the activity to the CFTC. Kalshi also prohibits users from trading on privileged information obtained through their employment.

Prediction markets are supposed to reward people who interpret public information better than everyone else. Having the speech loaded into your teleprompter before the market sees it is a slightly different kind of edge.

Do you think cases like this can be controlled with proper surveillance, or will insider access always be one of the biggest problems for prediction markets?

AP report

New to Kalshi? Eligible new U.S. users can receive a randomized $15–$500 trading bonus after completing $25 in eligible trades within 7 days through this official Kalshi promo link.

LeBron’s surprise 76ers announcement created one of the craziest Kalshi market moments I’ve seen in a while.

According to the breakdown, two accounts bought Philadelphia shares literally seconds after LeBron posted that he was joining the 76ers, while the market was still pricing Philly at around 9¢.

The numbers are wild:

• one account spent $2,374.32
• another spent $1,350
• total spent: $3,724.32

Final payout: $41,381.33

So that’s roughly $37.6K in profit from reacting faster than the market.

From what I’ve seen, this was most likely speed/automation rather than some mystery insider angle. It looks like the market just took a moment to fully catch up after the tweet.

Honestly, this is one of the best examples of why prediction markets are so interesting. Sometimes the edge is not about “predicting the future” better than everyone else — it’s about reacting faster when real-world information drops.

Would you count this as fair game, or does stuff like this make prediction markets feel too bot-dominated?

If anyone wants to try Kalshi, they currently have a $20 Reddit exclusive bonus: deposit $10, get $20 [Official Promotion].

I also wrote a quick Reddit guide explaining how to claim the bonus and how it works.

Source on the LeBron market story:
https://nypost.com/2026/07/24/betting/how-programmers-capitalized-on-crazy-229-million-lebron-james-markets-after-surprise-76ers-reveal/

I thought the -$10.8M number had to be a typo, but the wallet history is public.

According to Lookonchain, Polymarket trader DEEDDIT went from being down roughly $10.8 million to more than $8 million in all-time profit in about two weeks.

That is an almost $19 million swing.

The turning point was France vs Spain. The account reportedly had around $11.3 million riding on Spain to advance, with much of the position bought near 44.5¢.

Spain won 2-0, and DEEDDIT posted approximately $9.9 million in profit that day.

The account’s current stats are still ridiculous:

• +$8.05M all-time PnL
• $72.1M in volume
• 17 markets
• 58.8% win rate
• No open positions

Polymarket currently lists $6.1M as the biggest individual win, so the $9.9M figure appears to be the account’s total profit across multiple positions that day rather than one single contract.

CHECK DEEDDIT’s WALLET

Was this elite conviction, completely reckless position sizing that happened to work, or somehow both?

A guy on X correctly picked Spain to win Kalshi’s free $1M World Cup giveaway.

His final share of the prize pool was $15.62. If the $1 million was split evenly, that means roughly 64,000 other people also picked Spain.

Predicting the winner of the entire World Cup and receiving one celebratory combo meal is honestly pretty funny. Still, free money is free money.

Does anyone know if every correct prediction received the same amount, or whether submitting your pick earlier had any effect on the payout?

For anyone interested, Kalshi currently has a $20 Reddit-exclusive bonus: deposit $10, get $20.

I also made a quick Reddit guide explaining how to claim the bonus and how it works.

he bet nearly $2 million on Spain!

aspargus2012 bet $1,953,395 on Spain to win the World Cup final

over the past week, his profit on Polymarket has already exceeded $2,100,000!

CHECK HIS WALLET

However, he lost betting on Englad to win the World Cup.

Go big or go home?

Updated July 14, 2026

I kept seeing different answers on Reddit about the current Kalshi promo code, the Kalshi bonus link, and what actually triggers the $20 Kalshi sign-up bonus.

I checked Kalshi’s current referral FAQ and collected the rules that matter.

How to claim the Kalshi $20 bonus

1. Open the Kalshi promo link before creating your account.
2. Create a new Kalshi account and complete identity verification.
3. Before depositing, check your Rewards section and confirm that the referral offer is attached.
4. Deposit at least $10.
5. Complete the exact trading requirement shown in Rewards. The required trading amount may not be the same for every promotion.
6. After completing the requirement, check Rewards or Referrals for a Claim button. Kalshi says referral credits are not always added automatically.
7. Confirm the bonus under Activity → Credit and use it before the expiration date.

Kalshi promo code offer for July 2026

The offer currently promoted through this link is: deposit $10 and get $20 in trading credit.

Check the current Kalshi bonus link

The important detail is that Kalshi says referral amounts and requirements can vary between programs. After signing up, open the Rewards section and follow the exact trading requirement displayed there.

Do not assume that depositing $10 is always the final step.

Current Kalshi bonus terms

• The referral incentive is currently limited to eligible U.S. users
• Identity verification is required
• The referral link or code must be attached before the first deposit
• Complete the trading requirement displayed in your Rewards section
• Check for a Claim button after completing the requirement
• Referral credit is intended for trading, not immediate cash withdrawal
• The original referral credit usually cannot be withdrawn
• Profits made from using the credit may become withdrawable
• Referral credits normally expire 30 days after issuance unless your account shows different terms

Kalshi referral code vs Kalshi promo code

People often search for Kalshi referral code, Kalshi promo code, Kalshi bonus code, and Kalshi bonus link as though they are the same thing.

They are not always identical.

A public or partner Kalshi promo code may have different bonus terms. A Kalshi referral link connects your signup to a specific referral promotion.

With the link in this post, the referral information is embedded in the URL and should attach automatically. You normally do not need to enter a separate public promo code when the reward already appears in your account.

If the offer does not appear, verify the referral before making your first deposit.

Kalshi sign-up bonus FAQ

Can an existing Kalshi account use this bonus?

It is mainly intended for new users. Kalshi says a referral code may sometimes be added within 72 hours of account creation, but only before the first deposit.

If you have already deposited or missed that window, the referral generally cannot be added retroactively.

Does the Kalshi referral bonus work outside the United States?

Kalshi’s current referral FAQ says referral incentives are available only to U.S. users at this time. International users are not currently eligible for referral rewards.

Can I withdraw the $20 bonus immediately?

No. Kalshi describes referral credits as trading credits rather than cash.

The original credit usually is not withdrawable. Profits generated by trading with the credit may become withdrawable.

Is depositing $10 the only requirement?

Do not rely on the deposit alone.

The promotion is advertised as deposit $10 and get $20, but Kalshi says the exact trading requirement is displayed in the user’s Rewards section and can vary by program.

Do I need to win the qualifying trade?

Follow the terms displayed in Rewards. The important requirement is usually the specified trading activity, but the account-specific terms should be treated as the final source.

Is this an official Kalshi Reddit post?

No. The referral program is operated by Kalshi, but this Reddit guide was written by a user and is not an official Kalshi announcement.

For a more detailed explanation, here is the full Kalshi referral code, promo code, and sign-up bonus FAQ.

Trading event contracts involves risk, and it is possible to lose money. Always check the current offer and requirements inside Kalshi before depositing or trading.

Since Kalshi says requirements can vary, comment with what your Rewards tab shows in July 2026, especially the bonus amount and required trading volume. I will update this thread if the terms change.