His potenstial payout was $1M.
However, he had not that lucky day:
Link to this market on Kalshi.
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And here's a full guide on how to get a sign up bonus on Kalshi.
Original investigation is from Bubblemaps. I’m posting the steps/screenshots because this is one of the craziest Polymarket patterns I’ve seen.
1/ Bubblemaps started with a bubble map of the market tied to the first US strike on Iran on Feb. 28.
Most clusters had already been spotted by people on X.
Except the biggest one.
2/ They looked into that cluster and found 4 connected accounts.
Those accounts were created just days before the first US strikes, placed low-odds bets, and made around $400k each.
3/ Then Bubblemaps used timing + bet size analysis and linked those 4 accounts to 5 more.
So 9 accounts total.
4/ The numbers are insane:
9 connected accounts
$2.4M+ profit
98% win rate
80+ bets
Almost exclusively US military markets
5/ The accounts allegedly placed major bets before some of the biggest Iran-related events:
The Feb. 28 US strike
Markets around the removal of Iran’s supreme leader
The US-Iran ceasefire agreement
6/ They didn’t just make one lucky call either.
They reportedly bet across multiple dates, often with strong conviction, and kept showing up near the top of PnL leaderboards.
7/ Bubblemaps also says the accounts were connected through funding patterns, timing, and money routing through CEXs into shared wallets / possible services.
So this was not just “9 random traders had the same idea.”
8/ The weirdest part: some small losing bets were placed earlier, possibly to make the activity look less obvious.
That’s speculation, but the pattern is still crazy.
To be fair: Bubblemaps says they have no evidence linking these accounts to any specific person, government, or entity.
But 9 connected accounts making $2.4M on US military markets with a 98% win rate is not normal.
CHECK THEIR WALLETS:
Link to the news: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/betting-on-iran-war-insider-trading-concerns-prediction-markets-60-minutes/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7d&linkId=943877813
I’ve been seeing more Kalshi ads lately, and I also noticed Reddit users asking about Kalshi referral codes, promo codes, and how the Kalshi sign up bonus works. Since the information is scattered across Reddit comments, ads, and promo pages, I wanted to make one clear post for anyone searching before signing up.
Fair disclosure: this post is not an official Kalshi announcement, and I do not represent Kalshi. The promotion itself is an official Kalshi promotion, but this Reddit post is written by me to explain it clearly. The link below is a Kalshi bonus link, and I may receive a referral bonus if someone signs up through it and completes the required steps.
Current offer: deposit $10, get $20.
Check the offer here: Kalshi bonus link
The current Kalshi promo attached to this link is simple: deposit $10 and get $20. Since promo terms can change, always confirm the exact offer during sign-up or inside Kalshi before depositing.
In general, the process works like this:
People search for both Kalshi referral code and Kalshi promo code, but they are not always exactly the same.
A Kalshi referral code usually means a personal invite code or bonus link connected to Kalshi’s official referral promotion.
A Kalshi promo code may refer to a public campaign, partner code, ad promotion, or sign up bonus offer.
Either way, the important part is to confirm the current bonus amount and requirements directly inside Kalshi before depositing or trading.
Before using any Kalshi promo code, bonus link, or referral offer, I’d check:
I saw people on Reddit asking about Kalshi referral code, Kalshi promo code, Kalshi sign up bonus, Kalshi promo, and Kalshi ads, so I wanted to make the process easier to understand in one place.
Again, the promotion itself is official, but this Reddit post is just a transparent explanation from a user.
You can check the current offer here:
Kalshi sign up bonus link
Use it only if you were already planning to try Kalshi and the deposit $10, get $20 offer makes sense for you. Before depositing, confirm the exact terms inside Kalshi.
A Spanish La Liga club (likely Osasuna) facing potential relegation placed a bet against itself on Kalshi, hedging the financial hit of dropping down a tier.
They survived on the final day. Susquehanna was on the other side of that bet and pocketed over $1M.
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Briefly:
> joined kalshi only 7 days ago
> already pushed over $2.8m in volume
> made roughly $350k
> sitting at an insane 95% win rate
most of his activity is around football prediction markets and the numbers are honestly crazy
I used to think only polymarket had these high performing bot and data driven traders but it looks like kalshi has some monsters too.
$20 Reddit exclusive bonus: deposit $10, get $20 [Official Promotion]
The first-ever perpetual futures in America hit $1B in trading volume within a week of launch.
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The best Kalshi crypto streak trade we found won less than half the time.
It still made money.
We scanned 21,196 Kalshi 15-minute crypto markets across BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, and XRP.
The setup was simple:
That gave us 1,657 events.
The reversal contract won 47.8% of the time.
That sounds bad until you look at the entry price.
The average entry was 44.3c. At that price, a 47.8% win rate is not a loser. It made 3.5c per contract.
The baseline is what makes this interesting.
If we faded every three-market streak regardless of price, we got 4,462 priced setups. Those won more often, 52.8% of the time, but the average entry was 58.3c. The result was a 5.5c loss per contract.
Same idea. Opposite outcome.
Price discipline was the whole trade:
- Ask 48c or less: 1,058 events, won 44.0%, made 3.2c per contract.
- Ask 50c or less: 1,352 events, won 46.1%, made 3.4c per contract.
- Ask 52c or less: 1,657 events, won 47.8%, made 3.5c per contract.
- Ask 55c or less: 1,982 events, won 48.7%, made 2.9c per contract.
- Ask 60c or less: 2,702 events, won 50.7%, made 1.8c per contract.
Once the market made the reversal expensive, the edge started getting eaten.
The expensive version was brutal: reversal asks at 55c and up won 56.1% of the time and still lost 12.2c per contract because the payout was too thin.
The chronological split held:
First half: 828 events, made 2.0c per contract.
Second half: 829 events, made 5.0c per contract.
The side split also made sense. After three DOWN resolutions, buying the cheap YES reversal made 4.7c per contract. After three UP resolutions, buying the cheap NO reversal made 2.2c.
The mechanism is not "streaks always reverse." They do not. The mechanism is that after three same-direction Kalshi crypto settlements, traders often keep paying for continuation. The reversal is only interesting when the market still lets us buy it like a discounted underdog.
This is the kind of edge that disappears if you summarize it as win rate. The trade wins less than half the time. The reason it works is payoff geometry: paying 44c means the wins are big enough to cover the misses.
The next test is obvious: rerun the same rule by coin, session, and streak length, then check whether the 52c ceiling should move as liquidity changes.
Kudos to the original author: kalshibacktest
I decided to post it here since original post has unfairly low amount of views.
______
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There’s a wallet that literally only trades Seoul/Korea-specific events. Nothing else. No politics outside Korea, no crypto, no sports. just straight Seoul knowledge.
Wallet: 0xfc4283176706a7dd1c00c1c970ae9f8973ebdcba
original: oracle-of-Seoul
current: Oracle-of-Seychelles
The guy is printing absurd multipliers:
He does have losses (44.4% win rate), but he’s still sitting on +$15.9k PnL and 1034% ROI overall. Nobody had seen this wallet before this week. It’s feels like he has information so local that the rest of the market is permanently a step behind.
P.S. He recently changed his username from oracle-of-Seoul to Oracle-of-Seychelles. I'm pretty sure he's already started a fresh account for his next predictions.
Tennis on Kalshi seems to be slightly uncalibrated: people are willing to bond at 99c when there's a <99% likelihood of success!
If you placed resting orders for 10,000 @ 1c for YES & NO on every ATP+WTA match, you'd lose $100 by definition on every market but profit up to $9,800 if you got filled on the winning side too. 46 of 1,716 ATP+WTA markets in May swung around from having trades at 1c/99c, resulting in $65,659.72 pnl net of fees.
(I didn't do this, kinda wish I did though)
Note: Attached images are pnl plot of this strategy and a list of markets with positive pnl (the rest are nearly all -$101.73)
Credits to original Author: twitter NickTimiraos
Btw, Kalshi is currently giving away an exclusive Reddit bonus: deposit $10, get $20.
thelastrabbit bought Yes on "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30" at 62.9¢ 196,681 shares.
Now resolving at 100¢
That's $196,682 on a single position
A bet everyone else thought was impossible
Saylor spent years saying he would never sell
"Never selling" was practically the whole thesis
The market priced it like heresy
This wallet read it differently
Bought the outcome nobody believed
And let conviction do the rest
The crowd traded the slogan
He traded the probability
When the loudest "never" in the market cracks - are you positioned, or just watching?
His first trade was on a Lagos weather market, where he entered with only $1 and turned it into $1,400.
He started with just $10 and grew it to more than $10,800 in only 2 months.
Here’s how he trades:
> He focuses only on weather markets.
> Most likely, he uses airport weather data or aviation observations (like METAR) to get the most accurate values.
> He always uses the same bet size for every position, no gambling.
These weather markets are printing new winners every day...
$205k profit.
95.5% accuracy.
One month straight.
I found him last Tuesday and made $5,100 already.
This guy coached junior tennis for 6 years before landing a scouting role for a major sports data company.
His job for the last decade?
Finding information gaps between what tennis markets price and what actually happens on court.
He knows which young talent peaked at exactly the right tournament while rankings still reflected results from 3 months ago.
He built a career finding these gaps professionally.
Now he exploits them personally on Polymarket
Made only 14 predictions within that timeframe.
Focus is on Football trades
Weird fact is he never lost a single trade
Profile shows $5.7M but withdrew a total of $11.4M
- $3,137 in net profit from 146 transactions.
The strategy is simple:
Look for weather markets with extremely low or high probabilities and bet against the crowd.
How it works:
-> Buys "No" on unlikely exact temperatures for 0.2–3¢
-> Buy Yes at realistic price ranges up to 50¢
-> Diversifies across London, NYC, Hong Kong, Seoul, and Jakarta simultaneously
Top 3 deals:
Seoul 19°C: $10 -> $4,545 (+45,354%)
NYC min 56–57°F: $16 -> $556 (+3,306%)
London 15°C in May: $154 -> $1,344 (+770%)
While most people are watching crypto, he's reading the weather forecast
Polymarket is marketed as “wisdom of the crowd,” but the profit data looks more like poker with a public scoreboard:
WSJ found that just 0.1% of accounts captured 67% of profits, while 70%+ of users lost money.
The interesting part is that the winners are not necessarily “better at predicting the future” they are likely insiders, better at pricing, arbitrage, market-making, using bots, and entering before retail piles into obvious narratives.
He only bets “No” and keeps winning.
I saw him deploy 289K without a single loss.
He is not trading price. He is trading outcomes that almost never happen.
The idea is simple:
EV equals probability of No times payout minus cost.
When a market prices “BTC drops to 30K” at 99 cents, the upside sits in saying No.
What he does
Largest single win was 26.8K.
Around 885K sits active right now and keeps growing.
