r/PredictionsMarkets

Looking for someone to remote into my PC and install this trading bot for me. Willing to pay. PM please.

Some people made bank for sure but that must’ve hurt:/

Few weeks ago, I posted that I built a terminal to track petrol price. Since then we cleaned it up, made it global, landed an incredible angel investor, and are currently experimenting in forecasted prices based on the dataset we have. You can check it out at PetrolPrice.xyz - welcoming any feedback!

Setup: seven frontier models (GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.8, Gemini 3.5 Flash, Grok 4.3, Mistral Medium, DeepSeek V4, Kimi K2.6). Each starts with $10k of paper money. Before every match the model goes into agent mode, reads the fixture, looks at the live Polymarket odds, and has to commit. It picks the markets, sizes its own bets, and defends its capital curve. It's a simulation, not betting advice.

Current standings (85 of 94 matches covered):

1. Gemini 3.5 Flash - $18,675 (+86.7%) · 112W/61L
2. Mistral Medium - $17,779 (+77.8%) · 117W/74L
3. Kimi K2.6 - $16,482 (+64.8%) · 83W/50L
4. Grok 4.3 - $16,163 (+61.6%) · 57W/28L
5. DeepSeek V4 - $15,366 (+53.7%) · 102W/71L
6. GPT-5.5 - $10,049 (+0.5%) · 89W/87L
7. Claude Opus 4.8 - $8,066 (−19.3%) · 120W/78L

Two things I find interesting for this sub.

First, look at Claude's line. 120 wins, a 60.6% hit rate (the most winning bets of any model in the arena) and it's the only one with negative PNL. Meanwhile Grok has placed the fewest bets by far (85 settled, less than half of Claude's volume) and is up +61.6%.

Hit rate and EV telling opposite stories: Claude keeps taking short-priced favorites where the market is already efficient, wins often, collects scraps, and gives it all back on the misses. Grok bets rarely but apparently only when it sees an actual price discrepancy. Picking the winner is for fans, finding mispriced odds is for smart bettors.

Second, the ranking is completely uncorrelated with AI benchmarks. The two most capable models by any standard leaderboard (GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus) are the only two not beating the market. The cheapest model in the arena has nearly doubled its bankroll. "Decision-making under uncertainty with money on the line" is just a different leaderboard, and almost nobody measures it. That's where I find this experiment interesting.

Caveats: around 200 settled bets per model is not nothing but it's not enough to fully separate skill from variance. Claude was down -41% 3 days ago and has recovered half of that, so these gaps are noisy. Fills are against real Polymarket prices.

Everything is public. Each bet shows the model's full reasoning at time of entry, so you can judge the process independently of the outcome: worldcup.obside.com

Curious what you all think: is Claude's profile (high hit rate, negative EV) so far just favorite-longshot bias showing up in an LLM, or something else? And which model would you have picked before seeing the numbers? I picked Opus...

Happy to answer any question!

This man was down almost $3,000,000 just a few weeks ago

Last week, he made $2,400,000 of it back

Profile name: skk1ch

Seven days ago, his account was one of the ugliest curves on the platform - nearly $2.8M in the red

https://preview.redd.it/efgy49ilmvah1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=864a79e2d09c13a3931c0cd9d185349434a3818e

Then he went on an unreal run fr

Craziest bets:

• $1,000,000 on Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway going over 2.5 goals

Result: $1,931,584 back

+$930,000 on a single match

• Senegal to win → +$257,000
• Mexico to win → +$112,000, more than double
• France to win → +$106,000
• Over 1.5 in Belgium vs Senegal → +$74,000

+$2,400,000 in seven days

__

He's STILL in the red overall

Win rate: 42.9%

He loses more than he wins, and he dug himself a near-3-million-dollar hole doing it

But when he connects, he connects for life-changing size

And last week he threw the hardest comeback punch on the board

$299 start
$66,000,000 in lifetime volume
From almost $3M down to nearly even in a single week

He's not out of the hole yet
I've just never seen anyone climb this fast, but the climb got me a ping, so I just had to share this absolute madman clinging to life still - the UI in the screenshots is from coinpilot FYI

crazy stuff
Watch this account, and track his trades with the coinpilot app (10% off fees if you use my link): https://refer.coinpilot.com/PMREDDIT

I spent the last two years building this public AI trading dashboard. Here’s why I made it public.
One thing always bothered me about automated trading.
Everyone claims incredible returns, but very few people let you watch their system operate in real time.
So instead of asking people to trust screenshots, I built a public dashboard where anyone can watch the platform trading, monitor performance, and see activity as it happens.
The goal isn’t to convince people that AI never loses. Every strategy has winning and losing trades.
The goal is transparency.
The platform combines several pieces I’ve been building:
• AI-assisted strategy execution
• Multiple trading strategies with different risk profiles
• Paper trading and live trading
• Crypto and stock support
• Risk management and position sizing
• Performance analytics
• White-label capabilities for businesses
Most of the engineering effort wasn’t spent trying to predict the market.
It was spent building infrastructure that can reliably execute strategies, manage risk, integrate with exchanges, monitor positions, and provide users with a clear view of what the system is actually doing.
The public dashboard is my way of saying:
“Don’t believe the marketing. Watch the software.”
I’d genuinely appreciate feedback from developers, traders, and anyone who’s built financial software.
If you were evaluating a trading platform, what information would you want a public dashboard to display before you’d trust it?
Public Dashboard:
https://imali-defi.com/live

Watching these teams play, I finally put together a bracket that I think will be my final one for this World Cup.

https://i.redd.it/8yf0ivwm2uah1.gif

For most of these, I just went with the logical favorites, I guess. And some gut feeling there and there

I think the hardest decision was Brazil vs Norway and Brazil vs England

Didn't pick England because they just underdeliver, and Yesterday's match against DR Congo was just such a rollercoaster.

And the hardest choice was for sure Brazil over Norway. I think Brazil edges this matchup out because they have more experience playing together in the World Cup. Would be interesting to see if they will finally win against Norway since the 1998 upset. Also, Norway's defense is just too shabby - no confidence there.

Also, before you say it: I am not a Messi fanboy, actually, I prefer Ronaldo, but the goat is washed, and Messi looks pretty confident

Since for qualifying I need to trade at least 8 of these markets to qualify for the big $50,000 prize, I'll be going with trading safer matches (in my humble opinion):

• France vs Paraguay
• France vs Morocco
• Argentina vs Egypt
• Argentina vs Algeria
• Argentina vs Brazil
• Portugal vs Croatia
• Spain vs Austria
• Spain vs Belgium

Find the bracket competition here: https://www.pred.app/competitions/93139656-4320-475c-9f55-1c21513ea50b

Drop your bracket screenshots›

Genuinely interested to see what you guys think and are cooking up yourselves, the volume is so ripe right now, having a lot of fun trading and interacting with other traders

I pulled one anonymized TurbineFi user run because the setup produced a big short-term move within its first day.
Public strategy

It trades Kalshi's 15-minute BTC markets. The bot waits until there are less than 4 minutes left, then buys the side that is already winning

• buy YES if YES is 85c or higher
• buy NO if YES is 15c or lower
• use 50 contracts
• sell everything with 30 seconds left

The thesis is very simple: near the end of the market, follow the side already priced as likely to settle in the money instead of trying to catch a reversal.

The historical backtest showed +229.96% ROI with a 92.8% win rate over the test window. In live telemetry, the bot hit a +54.7% snapshot after about 14 hours. However, a later snapshot for the same run was only +6.31%, and the the run even dipped slightly negative on one occurrences. The backtest actually clearly shows a large drawdown and not so great sharpe so this doesn't come as a big surprise to me.

What are some tweaks you would make to improve the drawdown on this strategy?

His potenstial payout was $1M.

However, he had not that lucky day:

https://preview.redd.it/scargft9erah1.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b3612ac54e1f3c05e890a9ce33f2751f5ca793d

Link to this market on Kalshi.

$20 Reddit exclusive bonus: deposit $10, get $20 [Official Promotion]

And here's a full guide on how to get a sign up bonus on Kalshi.

https://preview.redd.it/b5uw39n8dsah1.jpg?width=2962&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=130e8d0ec97902ba9de9788f49b49f02498adc33

$TSLA Q2 2026 Delivery Estimates

406K from Wall St
477K from Kalshi

a HUGE difference

Pumped to see the who wins. My guess is it's closer to the prediction markets.

Kalshi sign up bonus: $20 Reddit exclusive bonus: deposit $10, get $20 [Official Promotion]