Do you think VP Sara will actually get convicted in the impeachment trial? I mapped out the Senate votes.
A lot of people confuse being "impeached" with being "convicted." The House can impeach her all they want, but the Senate holds the trial to decide if she actually gets kicked out. To convict, you need 16 out of 24 senators to vote "Yes."
After the Supreme Court threw out the first 2025 attempt on constitutional technicalities, the one-year filing ban officially expired this past February. The House has now successfully impeached her a second time, and the Senate officially convenes as an impeachment court tomorrow (May 18).I put together this data sheet tracking every senator’s political leanings to predict the final impeachment vote.
According to my "optimistic" model, the vote ends up at 15 Yes and 9 No, meaning the conviction fails by just one vote. Pero kung magpaka-honest ako sa sarili ko, realistically, 9 or 10 lang ang mag-"Yes" dyan.
The thing is, even if we get more optimistic and she becomes the second official to ever be convicted (the first was Chief Justice Corona), conviction only means getting fired and barred from public office. It does not equate to jail time. A completely separate criminal trial in regular courts would have to happen for that.
Check out this table. WDYT?