We ALL know the truth about Nintendo. But, some people are not based and not free thinking and do not know this truth. What is stopping these people from thinking basedly?
I've been playing a board game where players play up to 2 cards from a 12 card deck to score a varying amount of points from objectives. Whoever has the most points at the end of the game wins.
Specific deck content is based on a secret character you pick at the start of the match, but certain game events can allow others to discover your deck makeup with 100% certainty. I have been playing a character that has the ability to win an objective if I pay 2 victory points and correctly guess the top card of my opponent's deck.
My question is: If I know my opponent's deck, and I have tracked the cards they've played, how can I calculate the EV of "randomly" guessing their top card?
Here is an example deck:
2s
2s
3s
4s
5s
2a
3a
3a
2p
3v
4l
Note that decks can contain duplicates (2s/3a in this case).
During play, players always draw up to 3 cards in hand. Then, they play up to two cards, some or all of which may be face down. For example, with "x" representing facedown, the first 4 rounds may be
2s, 3s (deck: 9, hand: 1, discard: 0)
x,x (deck: 7, hand: 1, discard: 2)
3v, x (deck: 5, hand: 1, discard: 4)
2a (deck: 3, hand: 2, discard: 6)
On round 5, my opponent plays
2p, 5s (deck: 2, hand, 1, discard: 7)
At this point, I know 6/12 cards that cannot be on top of the deck. Supposing the round was worth 8 points,
What is the EV of making my best guess at the top card? Keep in mind, guessing, even incorrectly, is -2VP
Because you would only do this if you would otherwise lose, is it better to treat the objective as worth 14 points? 6 for you, -8 for your opponent?
What is the formula?
In this example, it appears that 3a is my best guess since it has two copies potentially in the deck. Can a formula calculate for meta gaming, where an opponent would strategically know to discard those cards earlier to mislead me? Should it?
It's not secret that modern Pokemon has issues, but online I always see people gas up Arceus as the best Pokemon game on Switch. I saw the pre release material and immediately thought it looked bad (as in, not just graphically, but top-to-bottom), but with so much praise, I thought I might be missing something.
But I wasn't??
I just finished the game, and I couldn't believe how bad it was. The story took front stage, but it was boring and predictable. The characters were flat and lacked any appeal. But, I had to suffer through them - you couldn't even skip the cutscenes.
Mechanically, it just doesn't work. I saw so much praise about how fun it was to actually aim and throw Pokeballs, but is it? There is no weight to it. The combat is simplified and uninteresting. The boss fights play like the jankiest Dark Souls fights. It genuinely feels like a tech demo.
Graphically, nothing needs to be said. I legitimately think it looks better than Scarlet and Violet, but it's still terrible.
I wasn't expecting the game to blow me away, but I thought I'd see where people were coming from. Instead, I am just stunned at the difference in expectations I have versus the Pokemon fandom. I realize taste is subjective, but this was one of the objectively worst experiences I've ever had with a game.
My brother recently took a trip to China. I had a lot of success with Let's VPN, so I recommended it to him. However, it doesn't appear to work for him, and research shows their service ended in China roughly 10 days ago?
I feel terrible. My brother can't access essential Western services like his Gmail, which he needs to monitor things at home for his months-long stay. I realize getting a working VPN is much more difficult, but I'm hoping I can help. Are there any options?
He has access to a Mac and a provider-locked android phone
Edit:
Thanks for all the help everyone. Apparently, Let's VPN is working for them again, so crisis averted.