u/BayouBluff

2026 Q1 13F analysis for NB w/ Float Analysis

I pulled the entire .csv from fintel.io at around 5:15pm CST today. Here is the chatgpt summary and analysis (unedited) of the data from the file...

Executive summary

From the equity 13F file:

Metric Result
Total institutions/rows 232
Adders / new positions 127
Reducers / exits 66
No change 39
Current institutional shares 51.89M
Prior institutional shares 34.26M
Net share increase +17.63M
Gross shares added +23.97M
Gross shares reduced -6.34M
Current market value ~$229.6M
Institutional ownership vs. 176M fully diluted ~29.5%

The headline is clear: institutional ownership increased materially during the Jan. 1–Mar. 31 reporting period. The net increase was roughly 17.6M shares, equal to about 10.0% of the fully diluted share count.

The biggest adders

Institution Current shares Change
Citadel Advisors 6.20M +6.00M
Brevan Howard 6.49M +3.92M
Alyeska 4.31M +2.71M
Goldman Sachs 3.29M +2.37M
Citigroup 1.14M +1.12M
Vanguard Portfolio Management 1.01M +1.01M
BlackRock 7.02M +636K
Squarepoint 563K +563K
Jump Financial 370K +308K
State Street 2.07M +300K
HITE Hedge 903K +268K
Alps Advisors 584K +258K
Geode 1.56M +250K
Bridgewater 883K +237K
Point72 506K +235K

The most important point: this is not just tiny RIAs adding a few hundred shares. The largest net adds came from multi-strat / hedge / quant / broker-dealer-style institutions.

The biggest reducers

Institution Current shares Change
Millennium 207K -985K
Dayah Capital 0 -840K
Counterpoint Mutual Funds 0 -610K
Soviero 0 -380K
Balyasny 92K -352K
Foursixthree 0 -352K
Gilder Gagnon Howe 0 -345K
Jane Street 392K -329K
Morgan Stanley 442K -324K
Deltroit Asset Mgmt 868K -203K
Arosa 0 -200K
Nuveen 723K -156K

There were meaningful reductions, especially from Millennium, Morgan Stanley, Jane Street, Balyasny, and several full exits. But the gross adds overwhelmed the gross reductions.

Ownership by style

Approximate classification:

Style Rows Current shares Net change Market value
Hedge / quant / market-maker / tactical 35 23.57M +11.75M ~$104.0M
Passive / index / ETF / large asset manager 17 14.23M +2.98M ~$63.4M
Bank / broker-dealer / intermediary 18 6.81M +3.49M ~$30.4M
RIA / wealth / private-client 133 6.12M -0.92M ~$25.7M
Other / unclear 23 0.99M +0.27M ~$4.5M
Insurance / pension / long-only 6 0.17M +0.06M ~$1.6M

This is the key read:

The institutional increase is being driven primarily by tactical capital, quant/hedge funds, market-making-adjacent firms, and large financial intermediaries — not by slow-moving traditional long-only institutions.

That does not mean all of the buying is fundamental conviction. It means NB has become a more institutionally relevant liquidity / volatility / catalyst vehicle.

Float analysis

Using the 176M fully diluted share count:

  • Institutions now report ~51.9M shares
  • That equals ~29.5% of fully diluted shares
  • The net increase this period was ~17.6M shares
  • That net increase alone equals ~10.0% of fully diluted shares

That is large enough to matter mechanically.

But I would not treat all 51.9M as “locked-up float.” A lot of this ownership is held by firms that trade actively: Citadel, Brevan Howard, Alyeska, Goldman, Citigroup, Squarepoint, Jump, Point72, Susquehanna, etc.

So the float read is:

Reported institutional ownership is now large, but a meaningful portion is tactical and potentially mobile. It can tighten float during accumulation, but it can also become a source of supply during volatility or catalyst disappointment.

Avg. share price paid

The file’s weighted average “avg share price paid” across current institutional holdings is roughly:

  • Weighted by current shares: ~$5.20
  • Weighted by added shares: ~$5.51
  • Simple median across holders: ~$5.73

Important caveat: this should not be read as exact execution price. It is best interpreted as an estimated cost basis / average-price proxy based on reported holdings and Fintel’s methodology. 13Fs do not show exact trade dates or exact purchase prices.

The practical read:

  • A lot of current institutional exposure appears centered roughly in the mid-$5s.
  • That means the current trading area is very close to the estimated cost basis of many recent/additional institutional holders.
  • If NB holds this zone, those holders are not deeply underwater.
  • If NB breaks materially below the low/mid-$5s, some recent tactical holders may become more sensitive.

Derivatives 13F file

Derivative exposure is smaller than equity exposure but still meaningful.

Type Current underlying-equivalent shares Net change
Calls 2.35M -822.9K
Puts 760K -359K

Largest derivative items:

Institution Type Current exposure Change
Susquehanna Calls 1.37M -871K
J. Goldman & Co Calls 409K +409K
Citadel Calls 321K +15.7K
Citadel Puts 342K +20.9K
Jane Street Puts 70K +26.5K
Jane Street Calls 36K +10.9K
Peak6 Calls 50K -81.9K
Balyasny Calls 0 -100K
Brevan Howard Calls 0 -210K

The derivative read is mixed:

  • Call exposure declined overall, mainly because Susquehanna, Brevan Howard, Balyasny, and Peak6 reduced calls.
  • Put exposure also declined overall, despite some adds by Citadel and Jane Street.
  • This does not scream “institutions massively loaded upside calls” during Q1.
  • Instead, it looks like derivative books were repositioned or de-risked, while equity ownership expanded strongly.

That distinction matters.

My read

The equity 13Fs are bullish for institutional engagement and float absorption, but not cleanly bullish in the “long-only conviction accumulation” sense.

The best interpretation is:

NB became a much more institutionally active stock during Q1. Large tactical funds, quant desks, banks, and market-making-adjacent firms increased equity exposure materially, while derivatives exposure was more mixed and in some cases reduced.

For your trading thesis, that implies:

  • the float is more institutionally held than before,
  • the stock is more sensitive to catalyst repricing,
  • liquidity can disappear quickly in either direction,
  • the mid-$5s are probably an important cost-basis / positioning zone,
  • and the name is increasingly being treated as a catalyst-volatility instrument, not just a dormant mining story.
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u/BayouBluff — 6 days ago