2026 Q1 13F analysis for NB w/ Float Analysis
I pulled the entire .csv from fintel.io at around 5:15pm CST today. Here is the chatgpt summary and analysis (unedited) of the data from the file...
Executive summary
From the equity 13F file:
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Total institutions/rows | 232 |
| Adders / new positions | 127 |
| Reducers / exits | 66 |
| No change | 39 |
| Current institutional shares | 51.89M |
| Prior institutional shares | 34.26M |
| Net share increase | +17.63M |
| Gross shares added | +23.97M |
| Gross shares reduced | -6.34M |
| Current market value | ~$229.6M |
| Institutional ownership vs. 176M fully diluted | ~29.5% |
The headline is clear: institutional ownership increased materially during the Jan. 1–Mar. 31 reporting period. The net increase was roughly 17.6M shares, equal to about 10.0% of the fully diluted share count.
The biggest adders
| Institution | Current shares | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 6.20M | +6.00M |
| Brevan Howard | 6.49M | +3.92M |
| Alyeska | 4.31M | +2.71M |
| Goldman Sachs | 3.29M | +2.37M |
| Citigroup | 1.14M | +1.12M |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | 1.01M | +1.01M |
| BlackRock | 7.02M | +636K |
| Squarepoint | 563K | +563K |
| Jump Financial | 370K | +308K |
| State Street | 2.07M | +300K |
| HITE Hedge | 903K | +268K |
| Alps Advisors | 584K | +258K |
| Geode | 1.56M | +250K |
| Bridgewater | 883K | +237K |
| Point72 | 506K | +235K |
The most important point: this is not just tiny RIAs adding a few hundred shares. The largest net adds came from multi-strat / hedge / quant / broker-dealer-style institutions.
The biggest reducers
| Institution | Current shares | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Millennium | 207K | -985K |
| Dayah Capital | 0 | -840K |
| Counterpoint Mutual Funds | 0 | -610K |
| Soviero | 0 | -380K |
| Balyasny | 92K | -352K |
| Foursixthree | 0 | -352K |
| Gilder Gagnon Howe | 0 | -345K |
| Jane Street | 392K | -329K |
| Morgan Stanley | 442K | -324K |
| Deltroit Asset Mgmt | 868K | -203K |
| Arosa | 0 | -200K |
| Nuveen | 723K | -156K |
There were meaningful reductions, especially from Millennium, Morgan Stanley, Jane Street, Balyasny, and several full exits. But the gross adds overwhelmed the gross reductions.
Ownership by style
Approximate classification:
| Style | Rows | Current shares | Net change | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hedge / quant / market-maker / tactical | 35 | 23.57M | +11.75M | ~$104.0M |
| Passive / index / ETF / large asset manager | 17 | 14.23M | +2.98M | ~$63.4M |
| Bank / broker-dealer / intermediary | 18 | 6.81M | +3.49M | ~$30.4M |
| RIA / wealth / private-client | 133 | 6.12M | -0.92M | ~$25.7M |
| Other / unclear | 23 | 0.99M | +0.27M | ~$4.5M |
| Insurance / pension / long-only | 6 | 0.17M | +0.06M | ~$1.6M |
This is the key read:
The institutional increase is being driven primarily by tactical capital, quant/hedge funds, market-making-adjacent firms, and large financial intermediaries — not by slow-moving traditional long-only institutions.
That does not mean all of the buying is fundamental conviction. It means NB has become a more institutionally relevant liquidity / volatility / catalyst vehicle.
Float analysis
Using the 176M fully diluted share count:
- Institutions now report ~51.9M shares
- That equals ~29.5% of fully diluted shares
- The net increase this period was ~17.6M shares
- That net increase alone equals ~10.0% of fully diluted shares
That is large enough to matter mechanically.
But I would not treat all 51.9M as “locked-up float.” A lot of this ownership is held by firms that trade actively: Citadel, Brevan Howard, Alyeska, Goldman, Citigroup, Squarepoint, Jump, Point72, Susquehanna, etc.
So the float read is:
Reported institutional ownership is now large, but a meaningful portion is tactical and potentially mobile. It can tighten float during accumulation, but it can also become a source of supply during volatility or catalyst disappointment.
Avg. share price paid
The file’s weighted average “avg share price paid” across current institutional holdings is roughly:
- Weighted by current shares: ~$5.20
- Weighted by added shares: ~$5.51
- Simple median across holders: ~$5.73
Important caveat: this should not be read as exact execution price. It is best interpreted as an estimated cost basis / average-price proxy based on reported holdings and Fintel’s methodology. 13Fs do not show exact trade dates or exact purchase prices.
The practical read:
- A lot of current institutional exposure appears centered roughly in the mid-$5s.
- That means the current trading area is very close to the estimated cost basis of many recent/additional institutional holders.
- If NB holds this zone, those holders are not deeply underwater.
- If NB breaks materially below the low/mid-$5s, some recent tactical holders may become more sensitive.
Derivatives 13F file
Derivative exposure is smaller than equity exposure but still meaningful.
| Type | Current underlying-equivalent shares | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Calls | 2.35M | -822.9K |
| Puts | 760K | -359K |
Largest derivative items:
| Institution | Type | Current exposure | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | Calls | 1.37M | -871K |
| J. Goldman & Co | Calls | 409K | +409K |
| Citadel | Calls | 321K | +15.7K |
| Citadel | Puts | 342K | +20.9K |
| Jane Street | Puts | 70K | +26.5K |
| Jane Street | Calls | 36K | +10.9K |
| Peak6 | Calls | 50K | -81.9K |
| Balyasny | Calls | 0 | -100K |
| Brevan Howard | Calls | 0 | -210K |
The derivative read is mixed:
- Call exposure declined overall, mainly because Susquehanna, Brevan Howard, Balyasny, and Peak6 reduced calls.
- Put exposure also declined overall, despite some adds by Citadel and Jane Street.
- This does not scream “institutions massively loaded upside calls” during Q1.
- Instead, it looks like derivative books were repositioned or de-risked, while equity ownership expanded strongly.
That distinction matters.
My read
The equity 13Fs are bullish for institutional engagement and float absorption, but not cleanly bullish in the “long-only conviction accumulation” sense.
The best interpretation is:
NB became a much more institutionally active stock during Q1. Large tactical funds, quant desks, banks, and market-making-adjacent firms increased equity exposure materially, while derivatives exposure was more mixed and in some cases reduced.
For your trading thesis, that implies:
- the float is more institutionally held than before,
- the stock is more sensitive to catalyst repricing,
- liquidity can disappear quickly in either direction,
- the mid-$5s are probably an important cost-basis / positioning zone,
- and the name is increasingly being treated as a catalyst-volatility instrument, not just a dormant mining story.