Summary of the NHC Products and Services Update for 2026 - New Cone, New Hawaii Products, Mobile NHC Site, "No Development Expected" Symbology, Cone Error Updates, and New Experimental Cone
Hello Everyone!
The 2026 East Pacific Hurricane Season has officially started. The Atlantic and Central Pacific season officially starts June 1st.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) released their Products and Services Update for 2026 Hurricane Season publication a few weeks back. I wanted to post a quick summary of the changes! Read the linked document for details.
I am very interested in the new experimental cone, since not only does it use the 90th error percentiles, but will be using an elongated ellipse rather than a circle. I am also happy to see they listened to some feedback about "no expected development", which now shows as a gray X if both the 2-day and 7-day probabilities are "near zero".
1. New Cone - Image One
This year the track cone will now show inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This version of the cone graphic went through an experimental phase during the 2024 and 2025 hurricane seasons and replaces the version that only depicted coastal U.S. tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings.
The first image is an example cone for Hurricane Milton (2024).
2. New Graphic Products for Hawaii - Image Two
The NWS will have the ability to issue Storm Surge Watches and Warnings, issue Peak Storm Surge Forecast Graphics, and now have a Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map for the main Hawaiian Islands.
3. Mobile-friendly NHC website - Image Three
The NHC is beginning to work on a version of its website that is more mobile friendly and more accessible. As a first step, a refreshed version of the front page of the NHC website will be hosted on NHC’s mobile URL (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/) around the beginning of the 2026 hurricane season. This version will work on mobile, tablet, and desktop devices.
4. Updated symbology of disturbances which development is not expected - Image Four
Beginning in 2026, systems in which development is not expected (near 0% in both 2- and 7-day forecast periods) will be depicted as a gray X. This includes systems where development chances have decreased to near 0%, and/or are mainly being highlighted to communicate a significant rainfall/flooding threat.
The community debated/discussed this last year! I did also suggest this to the NHC directly. Happy to see they agreed!
5. Annual update to the track forecast error cone - Image Five
The size of the tropical cyclone track forecast error cone for the Atlantic basin in 2026 will be about 4–8% smaller as compared to 2025. For the eastern North Pacific basin, it will also be about 3–8% smaller than the 2025 cone.
6. New Experimental Products
Experimental Cone Graphic - Image Six
The NHC will be introducing a new experimental version of the track forecast cone. Beginning in 2026, NHC will experiment changing two aspects of the cone:
- Using ellipses (instead of circles) that account for along- and cross-track errors
- Using the 90th percentile of the along and cross-track errors
Experimental Graphical Marine Wind Warning - Image Seven
Starting this year, the National Hurricane Center/Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (NHC/TAFB) is introducing the Experimental Graphical Marine Wind Warnings, a new service for marine partners. This product is a graphical depiction of official marine warnings, based on cumulative wind speed (gridded) forecasts where the resultant warning reflects specific wind speed thresholds.
Reminders of Other Recent Changes
U.S. Risk Current Map
NHC introduced a rip current risk map in 2025 that highlighted the risk of dangerous rip current conditions. The information originates from local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in a national rip current risk map when at least one active tropical system is present.
Issuance Criteria for Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products
The issuance criteria for tropical cyclone advisory products for Potential Tropical Cyclones was updated in 2025 to allow the issuance of tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land regardless of the immediate need for land-based tropical storm, hurricane, or storm surge watches or warnings.
Pronunciation of storm names
Pronunciation guides for storm names, including the phonetic pronunciations of all Atlantic and eastern North Pacific storm names is found on the NHC website at:
Atlantic: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf
Eastern North Pacific: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_epac.pdf
Alternate name lists (used when the 6-year list is exhausted):
Atlantic: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc_alt.pdf
Eastern North Pacific: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_epac_alt.pdf
Social Media
Live Stream
The National Hurricane Center provides live stream broadcasts via YouTube and Facebook whenever there is an area of interest in the tropics that may pose a threat to land, and more frequently when a hurricane watch is issued (for U.S. contiguous coastline).
Outreach
Facebook, Instagram , and X (@NWSNHC, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific, @NHC_Surge, @NHC_TAFB)
National Hurricane Center: www.hurricanes.gov
Tropical Weather Outlook: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml#GTWO
Definition of NHC Track Forecast Cone: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
National Hurricane Preparedness Week: www.hurricanes.gov/prepare
National Hurricane Center Facebook page: www.facebook.com/NWSNHC
National Hurricane Center X page: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/twitter.php