​

Huge momentum heading into the weekend!

First off, massive congrats to Joel Sangwa for officially signing through the rest of the 2026 season! He came in on a 25-day deal and stepped straight into the starting XI alongside Cissoko, Ian, and Batista, helping us string together 4 straight clean sheets and nearly 400 scoreless minutes. He earned this contract 100%.

Having that back line locked down is huge because tomorrow night we kick off a brutal 4-game road swing against the top teams in the West, starting with #3 New Mexico United in Albuquerque (8:25 PM CT on ESPN+).

How are we feeling about our defense holding up against New Mexico's attack? Can we grab all 3 points on the road? 🟢💛

Hi all- I'm a Hearts fan and earlier this season was trying to figure out how likely they were to make the playoffs week by week (unfortunately it has continued to decline). I found it useful and interesting, and I also like math and soccer so this has turned into a fun side project across USLC and USL L1, plus some other leagues now (just added EPL).

There are already cool weekly posts on this sub- big fan of the attendance numbers- so I thought people may find the title race probabilities interesting. The site should stay up to date as the season progresses but I can also do weekly posts like below if folks are interested.

Any feedback is much appreciated. I've continued to find a bunch of bugs/issues so don't hesitate. UTFH!

USL Championship

Where things stand: Tampa Bay Rowdies have basically wrapped up the East- 99.9% playoff, and they're the favorite for the conference title too, at 85%. The real drama is out West: New Mexico United (48%) and Orange County SC (32%) are in a two-team fight for the title, with San Antonio (7%) and FC Tulsa (5%) still mathematically alive.

The bubble:

• East- Hartford Athletic (73%) and Indy Eleven (71%) are in good shape, with Miami FC (21%), Birmingham Legion (18%), and Loudoun United (18%) still alive but needing help
• West- El Paso Locomotive (72%) and Colorado Springs (71%) hold the last bubble spots, Las Vegas Lights (4%) is a coin flip, and Phoenix Rising (28%) is a longer shot still worth watching.

→ full race table

https://preview.redd.it/sr62j7nmebjh1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8dff77f37a76f48abfdc5044eb58dac6203ba5c

Games that matter this weekend:

• Las Vegas Lights v Brooklyn- the single biggest swing game on the board. A Lights win pushes them to 60% playoff odds; a loss drops them to 34%. Brooklyn's still a long shot either way (7–18%) but this is their best remaining chance to move the needle. → game page
• Hartford Athletic v Miami FC- Hartford win: 78% playoff for them, Miami drops to 9%. Miami win: they climb to 31%, Hartford sits at a 49% coin flip. Direct bubble collision. → game page
• Colorado Springs v Birmingham Legion- same shape: Colorado 67–84% depending on result, Birmingham 16–35%. → game page

Best game: New Mexico United host FC Tulsa- 3rd and 4th in the West, one point apart. Both are playoff-safe already; this one's really about the title race, since a NMU win keeps them in the driver's seat against Orange County SC.

USL League One

Where things stand: Union Omaha is the clear title favorite at 57%, with Charlotte Independence (24%) and One Knoxville (12%) still very much alive. Forward Madison's title odds slid to 6% after their midweek win moved them up the table but out of the driver's seat- their playoff spot is still essentially locked (99%), along with Union Omaha, Charlotte, and One Knoxville, plus Spokane Velocity (92%), Chattanooga Red Wolves (85%), and Boise (81%) in good shape behind them.

The real fight is for the last spot or two: Fort Wayne (53%), Alta (50%), and Corpus Christi (32%) are scrapping for it, with Hearts of Pine (5%) the longest shot still technically alive.

→ full race table

https://preview.redd.it/uz9g70afgbjh1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3c20479449b16d56df6f5588d3f28a359307aaf

Games that matter this weekend:

• Fort Wayne v Chattanooga Red Wolves- the weekend's biggest swing and arguably the best game too: a Fort Wayne win puts them at 63% and Chattanooga at 77%; a Chattanooga win drops Fort Wayne to 37% and lifts Chattanooga to 93%. Genuinely two teams playing for the same thing. → game page
• NY Cosmos v Alta- Cosmos are effectively eliminated from playoff contention no matter what happens here. Alta's own odds swing from 46% (Cosmos win) to 72% (Alta win) purely on this result. → game page
• Spokane Velocity v Corpus Christi- Spokane's safe either way (84–94%); Corpus Christi's bubble hopes swing from 20% to 44%. → game page

Probabilities and graphics from Magic Number, a playoff simulator I built. Link.

Kickoff is tomorrow, Saturday, August 8 at 7:30 PM against Detroit City FC at ONEOK Field!

Matchday Reminders:

- Theme Night: Luau Night — wear your Hawaiian shirts to ONEOK Field! 🌺

- Digital Tickets: Have your tickets loaded in the SeatGeek app before reaching the gates.

- Parking: Pre-paid BOK Lot parking (208 E Archer) is $8 vs $12 day-of.

- Streak Watch: Tulsa is riding a 4-match clean sheet streak (390+ scoreless minutes)!

Who's arriving early for Luau Night? Let's keep the streak going! 🟢💛

Kickoff is tomorrow at 7:30 PM at ONEOK Field against Sacramento Republic FC, and there's a ton going on for Greenwood Night!

Gameday Highlights:

- Free Shirt Giveaway: First 500 fans get a "Greenwood Forever" tee designed by Mythic Press.

- $1 Beer Section Night: $1 Bud/Bud Light, $2 Pearl Beach Seltzers, and $3 Cabin Boys 918 Cervezas in the Midfield Terrace.

- Goal of the Week Voting: Logan Dorsey's banger against Pittsburgh is nominated for USL Goal of the Week! Voting closes at 11 PM tomorrow night—let's get out the vote for Logan!

- Matchday Honor: Moment of silence to honor Tulsa Race Massacre victims and Viola Fletcher.

Who's arriving early to grab a shirt and lock in the 3 points? ⚽🟢🍺

Vote for Logan's Goal: https://www.uslchampionship.com/news\_article/show/1364509

What a week so far!

1. Statement Win at Highmark: We went into Pittsburgh last night and walked out with all 3 points thanks to Logan Dorsey's laser from outside the box! Logan earned Man of the Match, and Quimi Ordóñez looked dangerous in his first start up top.

2. Defense is Locked In: That's THREE consecutive clean sheets (El Paso 1-0, Lexington 0-0, Pittsburgh 1-0). Batista, Cissoko, and Sangwa in front of Jacomen are looking as stingy as our 2025 playoff run defense.

3. Huge Home Stand Next Week: We're back at ONEOK Field next Wednesday (Aug 5) for our rescheduled match against Sacramento Republic FC, followed by Detroit City FC on Saturday (Aug 8).

Who's making it out to ONEOK next week? Let's keep this momentum going!

Post-Match Result — USL Championship (#PITvTUL):

FC Tulsa earns a hard-fought 3 points on the road at Highmark Stadium against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC in a rematch of the 2025 USL Championship Final.

Match Summary & Highlights:

- Game Winner: FC Tulsa forward Logan Dorsey awarded Man of the Match after curling in his 3rd goal of the season from outside the penalty area.

- Defensive Form: Tulsa's back line of Batista, Cissoko, and Sangwa along with keeper Dane Jacomen held firm to shut down Pittsburgh's home attack.

- Roster Debut: Guatemalan international Arquímides "Quimi" Ordóñez earned his first career USL start for Tulsa up front.

How are both fanbases evaluating the result and Western/Eastern conference playoff implications?

Anyone else celebrating in Tulsa like I am?

​

WHAT A STRIKE FROM LOGAN DORSEY! 💥

Dorsey catches Pittsburgh off guard and curls one in from outside the 18 to give us the 1-0 lead on the road at Highmark Stadium!

Huge moment in this 2025 Final rematch. Let's keep the foot on the gas and hold this lead! How's everyone celebrating at the watch party or at home?

I'm actually at the sportsplex where they train watching on my phone while my son is at practice.

Who's pulling up to Elgin Park Brewery tonight for the match?

FC Tulsa is hosting the official watch party starting at 5:00 PM for tonight's road match against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. They're giving away match-worn jerseys and prizes, but you have to RSVP at fctulsa.com/watchparty to enter the drawings.

Let's pack Elgin Park and cheer on the boys for this 2025 Final rematch!

The squad is officially en route to Pennsylvania for tomorrow's midweek clash against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC!

Huge 2025 Final rematch tomorrow night at Highmark Stadium. We're riding a two-match clean sheet streak into this one, and hopefully Quimi gets some serious minutes up front to test Pittsburgh's back line.

Anyone making the travel with the team? How about some transplant Tulsans in Pittsburgh?

FC Tulsa and Lexington SC fought to a scoreless 0-0 draw on Saturday night at ONEOK Field.

Match Notes & Roster Highlights:

- Defensive Form: FC Tulsa recorded its second consecutive home clean sheet. Newly signed defender Joel Sangwa (#44) earned his first start in the back line alongside captain Abdoulaye Cissoko (#91) and Lamar Batista (#15).

- Goalkeeping: Keeper Dane Jacomen (#28) made crucial stoppage-time saves to preserve the shutout.

- New Signings: Guatemalan international forward Arquímides "Quimi" Ordóñez (#9) was named to the matchday squad as a substitute.

- Physical Match: The teams combined for 31 fouls, with 7 yellow cards handed out before halftime.

How are fans rating both clubs' defensive stability and offensive output heading into August?

If you're heading to ONEOK Field tonight for the 7:30 PM kickoff, bring your holiday cheer but leave the heavy coats at home.

Tonight is the "Christmas in July" theme night, which is hilariously ironic considering we're looking at a 100°F high today in Tulsa. Even at 7:00 PM, it's going to be around 98°F (and feeling like a brutal 114°F!) with 51% humidity.

Despite the scorcher, there is a massive reason to get out to the pitch tonight: we are officially welcoming our newest signing, Arquímides "Quimi" Ordóñez! To celebrate our new No. 9, the club is running a "$9 for #9" promo where you can grab lawn tickets for just $9 at fctulsa.com/quimi.

Plus, the club has some genuinely great holiday promos going on:

Giveaway: The first 1,000 fans at the gate get an Ugly Christmas Sweater shirt. (Maybe save actually wearing it until December, though!)

Toy Drive: Bring a new toy to donate at the Tulsa World gate, and you'll get a raffle ticket for a chance to win a match-worn 2025 jersey.

Meet Santa: Santa Claus will be on the concourse—someone please get this man a glass of ice water. 🧊

Stay hydrated, dress light, and let's go see Quimi make his debut! 💦⚽