The Barnhizer-Jones Precedent: Why it's Probably Yaxel (unless it's not)
So, the actual Draft order was recently set, and people are getting more interested in mocking which player is going where.
About half of all mocks I've seen have had Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg going to the Thunder in some way. I think this is partly due to him having some classic OKC-pick ingredients: he's positionally versatile, he's a DPS guy, and he's got a jumbo wingspan. I'm gonna try to present a case for big Yax less based on current fit, talent or projection, instead just on looking at what players our FO has drafted or looked at before.
On the other hand, Sam and Mark always say we draft “people not players” and Yaxel has some intel about him where he's not always been super mature or been the most hard worker. Due to this, it's not the jigsaw-fit that you might expect to draft the guy. In addition, Presti really hasn't got a history of drafting older players in the lottery, and Yaxel turns 24 before the start of the next NBA season.
So I'm gonna try to show that someone like Yaxel (or his archetype) is clearly someone that OKC wants. My theory is that recently Presti has been looking for strong rebounding wings with both offensive AND defensive playmaking
The DJ-BB Case
Dillon Jones and Brooks Barnhizer were both essentially the offensive engines of their teams, ball handlers, made a lot of passes, while scoring. Both also were, in spite of height and usage, high level college rebounders.
DJ’s last season: 9.8 Reb, 5Ast/3Tov, 2Stl
BB’s last season: 8.8 Reb, 4.2Ast/2.8Tov, 2.3Stl
Also worth noting that these seasons weren't outliers for these dudes; they had similar results in earlier years.
Off the top of my head, the guys I guess match this kind of player type are Lendeborg, Joshua Jefferson from Iowa St., and the obvious Cam Boozer.
My Audition for Spreadsheet FC
I'd never really used it before, but I put together a Bart Torvik (advanced college ball stats site) query based upon usage, Ast/Tov, OREB% & DREB% Block% Steal%.
To make sure it didn't just spit out a lot of ball dominant min major big men, I had it filter out under 30%3pt and 70%FT guys. Plus, tried to eliminate unathletic/small guys by having a Dunks requirement.
Here you can go into the results yourself
Discounting Cam Boozer, since he's out of our price range. Discounting any players not declared for the draft (though Folgueiras and Rivera-Torres are guys to watch ‘27). Immediately discounting the bottom two guys for having negative DBPM and playing in the SWAC, a very weak conference.
This leaves 6 guys I took a more detailed look at. Obviously I fiddled around with the query before picking the final version, so I have Honorable Mentions (just missed out by a little in 1 area). 1. Isaac Celiscar, strong undersized F out of Yale going to Baylor next year. 2. Mike Sharavjamts, skilled South Carolina SF with some size and athleticism.
Players of Interest
1st round group: Lendeborg, Jefferson, Graves, Allen
Other guys: Natt, Borovicanin
Yaxel Lendeborg - Best in the group for: BPM, block rate, wingspan, height, AST/TO, scoring efficiency, FT%. To defend his relatively low rebounding numbers, Yaxel was part of a front court that had 2 other dudes (Morez Johnson and Aday Mara) that will be drafted 1st round this year. There's only so many rebounds to go around. Last season's DREB% and total rebounds would be best in group. Because of his way higher usage at UAB, his box score stat line PRA+Steals looked a whole lot like Brooks + Dillon in their 4th years. Played most similarly to Brooks at Northwestern (though obv at a higher level) where he's the secondary ball handler on the team, often looking like a PG, making passes from the perimeter, drives and post ups. All while being willing to crash the boards, pick up a guy full court and swat shots at the rim. The feel indicators are huge for this guy: he's in the 100th %ile for AST/TO, while averaging 3.1 APG. Was a 52/37/82 scorer.
Joshua Jefferson - Highest volume assister of the group and best DREB%. Made constant impacts on play, highest Usage, but didn't need to dribble the air out of the ball to be effective. 100th percentile in college for getting teammates assists at the rim. He can screen, DHO, run PnR on both sides and make fast connective reads. Got to the rim a lot, highest FT rate of group. Still ok efficiency as a scorer, but worst TS% of group, his EFG, TS% and 2pt scoring all got worse since his Junior year, where he was super effective scoring at the rim. He's a very streaky shooter, first half of season near 40% from 3 but dropped off to 34.5% overall. Defensively he's very interesting. Specialist post and off ball defender. He's unathletic with slow feet, but he gets to the right position a lot, and is very effective when 1-on-1 defending the other team’s best forward. Lots of steals throughout whole college career. Clear physical questions, he's very strong but not bursty and only average wingspan to make up for it. Still he's 6’9” with 6’11” WS, he's PF-sized.
Allen Graves - Graves gets a rep for being a nerd’s favorite draft prospect and it’s not hard to see why. He doesn’t turn the ball over, he’s a super efficient scorer. He stacks both steals and blocks plus he's a great rebounder. Best OREB% of the group. Positives first: his BBIQ is clearly very high, he's able to get himself constantly in the right position to get a rebound, to intercept passing lanes, to show and interrupt a drive. Good stuff. Also he's got excellent hands, never fumbles, constantly gets out of position blocks and steals. Best in group for both Stock rates. All this said, there's something in the tape that makes you hesitate. Firstly in that he's a subpar athlete, genuinely a weakness in PoA defense and often he falls behind a faster attacker, resulting in a bucket or a foul. The shooting numbers could also be questioned. The competition he was shooting against is mid-major 2nd units, and he doesn't take shots off the dribble. He's decent at working his way into the paint, especially against smaller defenders, and getting floaters or layups up, but he's truly standstill as a shooter (even midrange). While he never turns the ball over, that's helped by the fact he's not really passing it that much either.
Amari Allen - I really like Amari Allen, but I think he should probably return to school. To me he looks very Jack-of-Trades. He was a great shooter and passer through conference play, but really fell off overall during postseason tournaments. Highest volume shooter of the group. Was a high-level role player at a young age, but the upside stuff only came in flashes: playmaking in the midrange, fast connective decisionmaking and some stellar rebounding. In addition, he was very foul prone. Worst block rate and steal rate of group. I thought he'd definitely measure under the 6’8” Bama had him listed as, but the Combine had him at 6’5” barefoot, which is such an egregious lie it's almost impressive. All that said, there’s real potential here for a future playoff-rotation player. If he goes back to school keep an eye on him, if he stays in, maybe a low risk swing by doing some trade magic that gets us future picks too.
All of the above are players that, if Presti wanted them, would take one of our 2 picks. I personally think you could safely trade back to the mid-20s for anyone other than Lendeborg, but still, a 1st rounder and a guaranteed contract.
These next 2 guys are weirder fits, but trusting the query I watched their games. To note: I'm quite into the draft and I had no idea these guys existed. Could be a good or a bad thing. Either way, I'm sure both dudes would happily accept a Two-Way deal without needing even a 2nd rounder.
Kashie Natt - Natt doesn't massively fill the purpose of the query, since he's a point guard. Even so, I like him a lot. He's strong, bulky and fast. He's got Barnhizer at Northwestern levels of hustle. He drives offense and his TOV% is lowest out of the real ball handlers in the group. Somehow he averaged 8.2 rebounds per game as a 6’3” PG. He's also a real deal shooter, shoots off the catch and off the bounce. All of that is secondary to the fact that he's a fantastic PoA defender. I mean, probably one of the most skilled in the whole draft. Bad news is, he's almost certainly returning to school. Good (?) news is that he's almost certainly playing in Oklahoma next year, he's signed with OSU. (I only found out about him committing after writing this whole piece and damn it I'm not erasing the whole section now).
Filip Borovicanin - Borovicanin falls a little short of my expectations here, in that he's not a particularly good defender. If he had more of a history shooting it I'd still be in on him, but he's a career 32% shooter, despite that being his main potential role in an NBA offense. Got a good looking shot and clear shooting touch, but it just doesn't go in that much. He fills the stat sheet with rebounds and assists, but it's not enough for me without better D unfortunately. He's probably going home to Serbia where he might keep working on his shot. Sidenote: I'd really like his teammate Tre Carroll for the Summer League roster.