It’d be messy, but Labor could win the election with just 26 to 28 percent of the primary vote, but they may end up with a Lib-National, One Nation-controlled upper House. If that’s the case, I reckon it’s best if Labor loses this election. Have an absolutely chaotic one-term Lib-Nat-On government, and then come back.
Given that Ben Carroll has said he won't break existing contracts, around $17 billion has already been signed for ALL tunneling, including the underground stations (SRL east only). The part that's been paused is the remaining $10 billion for completing the stations.
Like no way they're gonna allow construction to continue for another like five years, then to stop it there and just abandon it?
2019 was super close. If Bill could've come across as this straight-talking, casual bloke, he would've got over the line.
Will someone please think of the children!!!
Next budgets tax cuts how big can they be or need to be to win swing voters?
Even with a primary of 26-28 given urban seat density and preferences right now probably labor minority government.
Australian politics is no longer a contest between two parties, and our polls can no longer be read as though it is. The addiction to interpreting polls via a two party system lens has created or should I say, triggered, a new generation of anti intellectuals, otherwise known as poll deniers.
It has now been widely reported across numerous polls, including our own RedBridge Accent poll published in the Australian Financial Review that One Nation leads on the primary vote. That does not mean Pauline Hanson can become PM.
Our country is transitioning into a multi party system and hence, the conventional ways of reading polls can be miss-leading and at times, lacking nuance. And nuance is the key word here because it matters a lot more in 2026.
In a multi party landscape, a national primary vote and a two party preferred figure tells you almost nothing about where seats fall. This is precisely what our recent MRP was designed to illuminate…..what the electorate actually looks like once you stop forcing it into a two horse race, with only two riders.
This is how to read polls.
Firstly, polls measure electoral sentiment now, today, this week. They are not a crystal ball, revealing an electoral result in 2028.
One Nation is dominating the regions. Its support concentrates among older, trades-qualified communities, people who built their working lives around skilled manual labour and critically among those now experiencing financial stress. It also polls strongly across a band of peri-urban suburbs, such as Camden, Melton, Ipswich, where that financial pressure is equally acute: mortgage-belt households, long commutes, the sense that the cost of simply breaking even at the end of the week, does require the shopping trolley to be at times, half full.
Labor, by contrast, holds up well in most urban settings, particularly in electorates with larger numbers of younger voters and more diverse communities. The picture here is almost a demographic mirror image: where One Nation draws support from older, financially squeezed, less diverse communities, Labor’s electoral coalition runs through the younger, the more educated, and the more multicultural parts of the country. None of this rules out some of those voters backing One Nation, but the numbers there are far smaller, and the broader trend matters here.
The real big insight this week is the huge existential problem facing the Coalition. Post Budget, they continue to lose support, across all published polls. Having already surrendered significant ground in a number of high-wealth electorates to the Teals, the kind of blue-ribbon seats that were once safe, it has suffered even steeper attrition across its regional base, where One Nation is now eating directly into its vote. It is being pulled apart from every direction at once: bled at the top by voters who have drifted to the centre, and hollowed out at the bottom by voters defecting to its right. And it is compounding the damage itself, pushing diverse communities further away with an anti-immigration narrative, closing the door firmly shut from diverse Australia. The Coalition cannot survive by alienating urban Australia while simultaneously losing vast stretches of regional Australia.
Anyone know if Labor is seriously game-planning what to do in the event that AI-driven layoffs begin to surge? Because it seems like this may already be starting to happen in some sectors.
For many years, Australians have avoided the intense culture wars seen in the United States and the United Kingdom over the “woke” issues. However, with the growing strength of One Nation, could this be coming to an end? Have we simply been in the eye of the storm?
I know there's going to be a lot of overlap, but there seems to be a difference between social democratic parties that have a strong relationship with unions and those that don't. Those that don't sometimes seem a little more lost in faculty-lounge-style conversations, disconnected from the day-to-day concerns of working people.
What do you think is the tangible influence of Friendlyjordies? A couple of percentage points? More so that he better locks in the base? What do you guys think?
He hated unions and was very pro-business, low regulation but he was also big on government intervention in the basics like housing, education, and transport. So maybe he’d fit into the NSW Labor very right faction?”
If an election were held now:
• Labor - 31% primary, 76 seats. A majority government.
• One Nation - 28% primary, 53 seats. The Official Opposition.
• Coalition - 21% primary, 12 seats. A rump.
• Independents - 8 seats.
• Greens, KAP, Centre Alliance - one seat
62 seats change hands. The Coalition loses 37 to One Nation. Labor loses 16 to One Nation. The Coalition wins zero seats in Queensland, WA, SA or Tasmania.
Looking at the differences, it’s hard to say these are sister parties. The Canadian Liberals seem like a mix of moderate liberals and the Greens. After 16 years, homelessness had exploded. The ALP has done more heavy lifting on housing in four years — fingers crossed they get 16.
A labor likely hold but 4.1 swing not a good result qld election in 2028
She also says she thinks he's manic, but we need more people like him. LoL