Using game totals and game script to make start/sit calls does anyone else build lineups around game environment?
Most start/sit advice focuses on the individual player, but I've found game environment often matters more a WR2 in a projected shootout can outscore a WR1 stuck in a low-total grind it out game.
The factors I lean on when I'm torn between two players:
- Projected total higher-total games mean more scoring chances to go around. If two players are close, I'll usually take the one in the game with the higher total.
- Game script / spread a team projected to trail throws more (good for pass-catchers), a team projected to blow the other out leans run-heavy in the second half (good for RBs, bad for garbage-time WRs). Blowout risk can quietly kill your stud's volume.
- Pace faster-paced matchups mean more total plays, which lifts everyone's floor.
I built an app called SharpLines that projects these game-level numbers across the NFL slate (totals, spreads, game script), but you don't need any tool to use the idea Vegas totals and spreads are public, and just checking "which of my flex options is in the better game environment" has helped my start/sit calls more than chasing matchup rankings alone. SharpLines just puts those numbers in one place with the reasoning behind them.
Curious how others here weigh this: do you build around game environment, or stick mostly to individual player matchups and rankings?
