NL25 Rush on GGPoker Completely Destroyed My Confidence — Am I Experiencing Extreme Variance or Something Else?
I've been grinding NL25 Rush on GGPoker for months and I need honest opinions from people who play high volume there.
Before anyone says “variance”, please read first.
I documented dozens and dozens of hands during the action, BEFORE showdown, saying things like:
- “I'm going to lose this AA”
- “KK will lose again”
- “I'm leading turn and river will kill me”
Then I posted the result after the hand. And it happened repeatedly.
This is not about one bad beat.
Over weeks/months I collected:
- AA cracked repeatedly
- KK losing over and over
- dominated hands improving against me
- leading turn and losing river constantly
- flushes completing in critical pots
- coolers in huge stack spots
- an event I calculated around 1 in 86 million probability
And before people say “confirmation bias”, understand this:
I’m not talking about remembering bad beats emotionally. I literally PRINTED the hands during play and predicted the outcome before showdown many times.
What destroys my confidence isn't one hand.
It's the repetition pattern.
Sometimes it feels like:
- I improve, villain improves more
- I hit turn, river kills me
- I get premium, board runs worst possible
- I finally build momentum, then lose multiple stacks in brutal spots
PokerCraft often shows profit or decent EV spots, but real balance gets destroyed by rake + massive all-in losses.
I genuinely want serious opinions:
- Is this just extreme variance?
- Is Rush poker psychologically distorting perception?
- Are bots/RTA making games feel unnatural?
- Has anyone else documented patterns like this over large samples?
Please don't answer with “lol variance” unless you've actually played massive Rush volume.