u/Canafornication

2021 id.4

I thought it was going to take maybe 1 call and they will reset it. Well, after five calls and two incredibly rude reps, I’m stuck with it

Support and the dealer basically played ping pong.

So I need to call some special number and day magic combination of words?

I already tried
Primary user
Previous owner
Factory reset is blocked because of primary user

They just seem not wanting to deal with it 😃

Have you seen MS announcement? I’ve looked at their landing website. It looks like a total AI slop

Would the be able to compete on any level except technical?

Trade idea in NBIS collecting premium from an expensive call sale

I got deltas positive again with the market softening so was looking to reduce it. NBIS calls looked very expensive, decided to sell 290 call in August.

Below is agent's reasoning. I kinda agree with it. There is a risk because of earning event.
Still, 30 delta call with 40% above the current price, with fat estimated return on capital is a good bet. I put an offer at 16.3

I would sell the 290 call. IV rank at 95.83% and IV percentile at 99.63% drove the decision, since options price at the top of the one-year volatility range.

The 290 call fits the negative view without taking the highest delta on the board. I selected the farthest listed call because it cuts price sensitivity while the premium remains worth selling. No completed trade history surfaced, so this trade stands on current pricing.

The risks come from liquidity and event timing. Options liquidity rates as tradeable but not deep. Earnings fall in 34 days inside the contract life. The 290 strike is below the 52-week high of $299.86, so the naked call still carries real upside exposure.

Upd: filled at 16.3

Should I just leave it or try to remove it?
Not sure how they going to assess it since this is not OEM.

130 put pay $8 premium, even though IV deflated where it was. Stock is 15 bucks from the IPO price, might just wait till it gets there.

The IV metrics still not very clean, since options trading only a few days, there is no history. I mean the options are still expensive, and skew is probably huge. But it's not clear how expensive on relative basis.

PS waited till the end of the day and pulled the trigger. filled at 10.30
I hate this trade :)
But ten buck of premium is ten buck

https://preview.redd.it/sz1gn5385v8h1.png?width=403&format=png&auto=webp&s=0629786e315a080c384ad7075482de04b7bbc5e7

Trade idea in WULF

Was looking for a bit of delta reduction and found this puppy for a short call trade.

Below is the full machine reasoning.
The app doesn't recognize yet the unusual combinations of IV indicators. In this case, IV rank is pretty low but IV is pretty high. Hence the return on capital is higher than usual, normally I'd get 5-10% for cash secured premium trades.

My take: the iv stayed consistently elevated in this name for a long period of time. And IV rank became rather low. Stock kept grinding up, but without explosive moves. Realized volatility stayed close to IV and the IV is not actually that overpriced.

If anybody can explain this IVs/HV relation better, I'd be grateful!

Machine reasoning:

Sell the 33 call for July. The 30-delta contract keeps the strike above the 52-week high at $29.30 and avoids the higher sensitivity in the 31 and 32 calls.

The idea matches the negative view without forcing duration. The 30-day cycle gives better return quality than the 65-day call, and the option keeps a strong probability for half profit. No prior completed trades were available for this name.

Risk comes from liquidity and volatility context. The liquidity rank is weak at 17.81, even though the platform rating is tradable. IV rank at 28.3 is acceptable, while IV percentile at 14.16 says current IV is low versus its own year. The absolute option IV near 90% keeps the premium usable, so I would take the trade with that liquidity caution

I saw a post somebody buying options in NASA ETF as a play for SpaceX IPO.

I think the whole musk-space thingy is so hyped they going to whack retail crowd that bought calls on every proxy name. But I'm not going to pretend I know how the market going to behave.

I think a better play is IV. It is so elevated it makes sense to sell premium, PUTs specifically. A bit of long bias, and the play IV in these names will crash after IPO.

I've dug three liquid proxies: NASA, RKLB, ASTS

I like the most NASA, mostly because it requires least capital. All trades below for CSPs.

NASA

Sell the 27 put for NASA in July. Collect $1.45 premium. Requires $2,700 collateral. Has 38 days to expiration.

Price 1.45
Delta -0.25
Theta -3.53
RoC 12 (estimated annualized return on capital)
P50 81 (estimated probability of 50% profit)
Margin 2700
Days to P50 9 (estimated days to reach P50)

Reasoning I got from the app I'm using:

Sell the 27 put. Elevated relative volatility drove the decision, with current option volatility high enough to pay for a farther out-of-the-money strike.

The trade keeps the short side on the put side rather than the naked call. The stock trades in the lower half of its 52-week range, and the 27 put gives room below the current price while still paying a usable credit for a cash IRA.

Risk comes from only adequate options liquidity. The volatility setup helps, but fills may need discipline. No completed prior trades came back for comparison, so the decision rests on current pricing and liquidity. Show less

The other two have similar metrics, and they going down so premiums are even richer and stricter can move further out.
ASTS had the highest RoC, 22% - I usually get 4-6% range but IV is so rich, that returns in cash secured account looks like trading with T-Margin

ASTS
Sell 90 put for ASTS in July. Collect $11.15 premium. Requires $9,000 collateral. Has 38 days to expiration.

RKLB
Sell the 100 put for RKLB in July. Collect $8.11 premium. Requires $10,000 collateral. Has 38 days to expiration.

PS
I just got NASA order filled at $1.70, oh well that was a very fast fill with a price better than nat.