How I think the redistricting war will continue in 2028
Minnesota, Colorado, New York, and New Jersey are all extremely likely to redraw in 2028 as soon as they gain the ability to do so. I think Virginia will reinstate its 10-1 map as well, even if they need another referendum to do so. Indiana will finally cave and install a 9-0 map, and Illinois will draw out a republican seat in response. They might even go 16-1, but I'm not sure they're willing to go that far. Maryland will also go 8-0.
I don't really think there's much else republicans can do. They can override a governor's veto in Kentucky to draw out louisville and they'll probably be able to draw out sharice davids after they retake the governor's mansion in kansas, and they might be able to draw full republican maps in louisiana, mississippi, and alabama, but I think they're pretty much out of options after that. South Carolina might redraw but it would be very risky given trends of the state. Florida and Texas could attempt to strengthen their gerrymanders but it would get very risky as well. Wisconsin might try to draw their map to become more fair by splitting Madison between districts 2 and 3 and Milwaukee between 1 and 4, and drawing WI-8 and WI-6 to be more competitive.
I also don't put it past Gavin Newsome to draw 54-0 in California just to boost his 2028 poll numbers.
In order for there to be significant gerrymandering reform, Democrats have to decisively win the redistricting war and I think this is very possible if the right steps are taken in 2026.
States such as Colorado and Minnesota should gerrymander as aggressively as possible to take advantage of a left-leaning electorate. The census is only 4 years away and there isn't much to lose. If republican states try to counter, existing gerrymanders such as Illinois and California should go even harder.
Democrats also need to prioritize flipping the Georgia State House, the Governor's mansion, and as many Supreme Court states as possible. This fast-growing state has the highest potential to throw out their republican legislators and a 7-1-7 fair map could be put in place as a compromise in 2030. They should also try to achieve a trifecta in Wisconsin to redraw the map 4-4. This will remove Republicans' significant advantage amongst the Swing states.
If all is done correctly, Democrats should have a 10-20 seat advantage in the house come 2030 and republicans will cave and ban gerrymandering nationwide.