r/YAPms

The political math is relatively simple. Trump carried 25 states all three times. That means Republicans only need to convert each of those states into Senators. He lost 19 states thrice; that becomes only 38 Democratic Senators. Democrats need to win all 12 swing-state Senate seats for a tied Senate. They can also try and win some triple-Trump seats but as 2024 showed in a relatively close Presidential election this is a really bad strategy, because all 3 Dems who held those seats lost (incl. Manchin), and not by close margins either.

After the '24 wipeout there are all 50 Republicans from the triple-trump states (and 0 Democrats left!), only 2 from swing seats (Ron Johnson and Dave McCormick), and 1 plucky Susan Collins. Dems are batting .830 in those swing seats and it's still not enough. Their majorities under Obama and Biden were underwritten by lag from the less polarized 6th party system, which still saw Democrats able to hold deep-red Senate seats, and especially for Biden the fact that Democrats have not really had a bad midterm since 2014, which was 12 years ago now.

Trump has been so bad that Democrats can count on gaining several triple-trump seats in 2026 (but almost certainly not '28 except maybe NC, which could be in the swing state category anyway), but these will fade away like quicksand in '32 unless nothing changes. (Like the '18 wave seats did in '24) Texas, Kansas, Ohio and Alaska won't be the foundation of a durable majority unless those seats become more Presidentially competitive.

2030 especially is a ticking-time bomb, Democrats only held Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada (and to a lesser extent Arizona) in '24 by disgustingly thin margins despite running good candidates and incumbents against some pretty mid-to-absolute-trash ones. McCormick was R's best and he beat a supposedly solid incumbent. If there is a Dem President in '28, and we really do get transformative policy like M4A passed, there will be a really tough midterm.

I also don't know if people remember the Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden polls from like late 2023/early 2024 that were absolutely insane, regularly Haley by over double digits. Like a competent post-Trump Republican could totally win a landslide.

There's a world where Dems get to like 55 seats in this midterm, 57 after '28, and in '30 this becomes 53 and in '32 back down to 45, all requiring Republicans to win zero triple-blue seats.

The structural problem is that Democrats are hard-capped at 50 seats in any year that's not a Republican midterm. This means they only get access to a trifecta and genuinely can pass policy after major Republican fuckups. Clinton, Biden and Obama each had only two years of a trifecta and were pretty neutered for much of their remaining term. (Well, Clinton could do some bipartisan stuff, but this has become less feasible lately). Bush and Trump have both had (at least) 4. Moreover, it will make it near impossible to overturn the conservative-dominated judiciary and SCOTUS if Republicans control the Senate 50-75% of the time; if the Senate is lost by 2030 they could totally spend six years holding up a nominee. How can Democrats avoid these problems created by the Senate's republican bias?

1. New coalitions. Maybe the post-Trump GOP sees major reversion in states like Iowa and Ohio or even Kansas which become presidentially competitive again, enough for Democrats to hold in tight Presidential years and unfavorable midterms. But I'm personally skeptical, and think it may swing the other direction and make places like Wisconsin where Democrats have relied on gains in Trump-hating college-educated suburbs even less tenable.
2. The switch in education and thus base voter turnout in midterms that helped create the unique conditions that prevented a Senate wave in '22 maintain and are strong enough to buffet them during midterms. But I'm also skeptical this lasts post-Trump, or is strong enough to overcome the bias. Trump will also be less able to nominate trash candidates like Masters, Lake, Walker & Dr. Oz.
3. This leads me to my ultimate point. Democrats will potentially (obviously, fingers-crossed, nothing is guaranteed, though if Vance wins this whole argument just gets punted to 2032, very little structurally changes) enjoy a trifecta in 2028, but unless they expand the Senate with DC & PR it will be a long time and rely on serious Republican problems before they get that opportunity again. Instead of needing to go 12/12 in swing-state Senate seats, (or 12/14 including N.C), they will need to go only 10/12 or 10/14, which is much more doable. Any deep-red Senate seats make that job easier, but needn't be relied on. If Democrats lose their trifecta in 2030 PR statehood is dead (until another major Republican fuckup), which means Democrats either should rush a binding referendum for '29 or just honor the very recent '24 referendum where statehood passed decisively and give them statehood immediately. No other territory was held to the standard of needing to have *one last referendum* like 5 times over before being admitted, and the supposedly "non-binding" Brexit referendum was treated as law. There have been numerous referendums held in PR that all clearly support statehood, and the legislature is controlled by a supermajority of pro-statehood legislators. A vote for statehood by that legislature should be sufficient.