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u/Straight-Bar-7537

r/YAPms
▲ 11 r/YAPms

My July 4th Midterm Prediction:

I thought that since it's July 4th it's a good time to show my current forecast for the midterms based on what's going on as of now.

The best thing here is that it's my birthday today so none of yall can criticize me.

(Note: House is only flips & holds, other maps are likelihoods. I don't really wanna do margins until Septemberish)

(Note 2: I meant to make Texas Lean R for Senate but I forgot)

u/Straight-Bar-7537 — 1 day ago
▲ 11 r/YAPms

What Candidate This Cycle is Most Likely to be the Most Overestimated and Most Underestimated by Pollsters?

My take:

Most overestimated - James Fishback, GOP Florida gubernatorial primary.

Most underestimated- Susan Collins, Maine Senate election (for a more unique answer, my second choice would be John James in the Michigan gubernatorial race).

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u/Straight-Bar-7537 — 7 days ago
▲ 15 r/YAPms

2026 U.S. Senate Elections, But The 17th Amendment Never Passed

Might do 2028 / earlier senate elections if I feel like it.

u/Straight-Bar-7537 — 7 days ago
▲ 42 r/YAPms

Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) Backs Repeal of 17th Amendment

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2026/06/scott-perry-joins-push-to-revoke-17th-amendment-strip-voters-of-electing-senators.html

Representative Scott Perry has come out in support of repealing the 17th Amendment to the United States Constitution, which required senators to be elected by popular vote instead of the original election system of state legislatures appointing them.

Representative Perry is a swing district Republican who represents most of the Harrisburg-York area of Pennsylvania, and widely considered vulnerable to losing re-election.

He won re-election in 2024 by 1.2%. He underperformed Trump by just under 4%, Senate candidate McCormick by about 3%, and Treasurer Garrity by 11%.

u/Straight-Bar-7537 — 8 days ago
▲ 39 r/YAPms

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) Pushes $25 Minimum Wage Bill as 2028 Speculation is Abound

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/senate-democrats-push-25-minimum-202134674.html

https://hartfordbusiness.com/article/murphy-proposes-raising-federal-minimum-wage-to-25-an-hour/

The full legislation entails:

- Raising the minimum wage to $25, where larger businesses with 500+ workers have until 2031 to meet the wage, and smaller businesses with less than 500 workers have until 2038.

- Within the first year, the minimum wage would increase federally from $7.25 an hour to $12 an hour, with similar increases over time until it reaches $25 an hour.

- After it reaches $25 an hour, the minimum wage will then increase annually automatically to meet 2/3 of the national median wage.

- It also abolishes the tipped minimum wage & the subminimum wage, which applies to youth workers & disabled workers.

It is currently co-sponsored by fellow Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Senator Andy Kim (D-NJ), and Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR).

u/Straight-Bar-7537 — 9 days ago