r/thespinroom

New Elections Site, TSR.

Come and see it for yourself.
https://pickleartgeek.github.io/wikiElections

Features:

  • rolling average of moderator approvals, via ProbCalc, along with a slate of issues that matter.
  • Election aggregates and calls from Decision Desk TSR.
  • Live results via TSR Elects.
  • A repository of all Spinner Insights polls
  • Party polling - likely to receive an update soon
  • Professional, modern graphics and UI
u/PickleArtGeek — 6 hours ago

Arnold Amendment (Part 3): 2022 midterms (+non-gerrymandered house map)

Part 1

Part 2

Hi again! Part 3/4 of the Arnold Amendment timeline inspired by u/Environmental_Cap104's TCT mod is here. 2022 turns out to be an absolute blue wave, with democrats finally controlling the Senate for the first time since 2012. The House is also a bloodbath for the GOP. Here is a notable divergence from OTL: Arnold's SCOTUS justices decide that gerrymandering is unconstitutional and requires non-gerrymandered maps from every state. These were a pain to edit: some maps are taken from this archived 538-page, while others are created by the legend u/Cobiuss, who helped me with custom maps for some states. A fun detail is that Minnesota only has 7 districts instead of 8, and New York 29 instead of 28. This is because IRL, NY lost that seat by 89 people (!), a seat that went to MN.

Early in his second term, Arnold appoints MS Senator Roger Wicker as Secretary of Defense. A special election is held in mid-2021 and it's initially seen as a lock for the GOP. But GOP infighting, a stellar Democrat, and decreasing popularity for Arnold leads Democrat Brandon Presley winning by a landslide margin. Post-COVID inflation hits America hard and Arnold faces immense backlash after his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Roe v. Wade is not overturned in this timeline, but these voters does know that, of course.

Democrats flip 8 seats in the Senate. Martha McSally loses to Mark Kelly in AZ and Doug Collins loses to Raphael Warnock in GA, both rematches of their 2020 special elections. Kate Marshall defeats Joe Heck in NV, Cheri Beasley claims the open seat in NC by defeating former governor Pat McCrory, John Fetterman defeats Dave McCormick in PA, Mandela Barnes defeats Ron Johnson in WI, and Colin van Ostern narrowly ousts Kelly Ayotte in NH. Faced with the prospect of a competitive election for the first time in his 42 year career, Chuck Grassley decides retires in IA and Michael Franken subsequently defeats Ashley Hinson).

The presidential primary field is shaping up for the 2024 presidential election, and it looks like the GOP is gonna be snubknuckled in two years time. Let's see in the finale tomorrow

u/Fabilur — 14 hours ago

An advertisement against u/HighKingFloof that I created, but ultimately decided against using during the previous Class 1 election.

Arnold Amendment (Part 2): Schwarzenegger wins again (+all 2020 senate races)

Part 1

Hi! This is part 2 out of 4 of the Arnold Amendment series inspired by u/Environmental_Cap104's TCT mod with the same name. These slides cover Arnold's (somewhat) comfortable re-election and the downballot effects. Arnold is a strong incumbent and was already on track to win 2020, but he benefits from COVID-19's rally-around-the-flag-effect (he takes the pandemic seriously and advocates for the vaccine).

Biden doesn't run in this timeline because does not think the country is in danger with Arnie at the helm. Arnold also strongly condemned the 2017 Charlottesville riots, which Biden cited as the reason for running OTL. Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe instead emerges as the establishment choice, but is upset by political newcomer Pete Buttigieg. He performs strong enough to win back Michigan, Minnesota, Maine and New Mexico, but in the general regardless.

In the Senate, many Senate republicans are in good position, with John Cornyn and Susan Collins winning re-election by over 20 points. Jason Lewis narrowly defeats Tina Smith in Minnesota, while John Hickenlooper defeats Cory Gardner in Colorado. Despite Arnold carrying Georgia by 8.1%, Jon Ossoff unseats incumbent David Perdue by 0.84% in a earth-shattering upset. In the special election, interim appointee Doug Collins defeats Raphael Warnock in the first round, avoiding a runoff (Collins was appointed by governor Casey Cagle, who wins the GOP primary in 2018).

Arnold heads into his second term with a newfound majority in both chambers of congress, and things are initially looking good for him. Will the political pendulum swing back in time for the 2022 midterms? Stay tuned for part 3 tomorrow.

u/Fabilur — 1 day ago

Arnold Amendment (Part 1): 2016 elections (+2018 midterms)

Hi! This is my first major project here. It's part 1 out of 4 and explores a timeline where Arnold Schwarzenegger is eligible to run for president in 2016 (inspired by the Arnold Amendment mod by u/Environmental_Cap104, although he was probably not the first to have this idea). I have merged the 2016 and 2018 elections into one post because there is not much divergence from OTL yet. I have Wikipedia articles for all major elections in this timeline (except the governor races because I really can't be bothered with them. I have a spreadsheet with those however.)

Arnold governs as a moderate republican with lots of cross-over support from democrats. While he is personally popular during his first term, he is a little overzealous and attempts to use his majority in congress to do a bunch of things. This includes an attempt to add a Balanced Budget Amendment to the constitution, which fails spectacularly. Even though senate democrats need to defend a bunch of states won by Arnie in 2016, Republicans receive a huge beating in the 2018 midterms, just like in our timeline. But will 2020 be Judgement Day for Arnold? Come back tomorrow to find out.

u/Fabilur — 3 days ago

US will probably switch to primarily using mercenaries for ground forces to avoid paying VA in the future IMO

u/_BCConservative — 3 days ago

As a southerner, bless his heart! He’s trying so hard…

I actually feel bad for him, 2026 so bad he’s relying on the Iowa state fair to cope.

u/RoniSt1021 — 3 days ago

Would Lieberman make a good FBI director?

How would he work in the trump administration?

Would he resign?

u/Leviathan_1968 — 3 days ago
▲ 184 r/thespinroom+1 crossposts

When you wake up from a two year coma but its okay cause you open the South Carolina Primary Results Wikipedia page and lowkey can know the Democratic Party is in good hands.

u/GoblinnerTheCumSlut — 6 days ago