u/Fabilur

Part 1

Part 2

Hi again! Part 3/4 of the Arnold Amendment timeline inspired by u/Environmental_Cap104's TCT mod is here. 2022 turns out to be an absolute blue wave, with democrats finally controlling the Senate for the first time since 2012. The House is also a bloodbath for the GOP. Here is a notable divergence from OTL: Arnold's SCOTUS justices decide that gerrymandering is unconstitutional and requires non-gerrymandered maps from every state. These were a pain to edit: some maps are taken from this archived 538-page, while others are created by the legend u/Cobiuss, who helped me with custom maps for some states. A fun detail is that Minnesota only has 7 districts instead of 8, and New York 29 instead of 28. This is because IRL, NY lost that seat by 89 people (!), a seat that went to MN.

Early in his second term, Arnold appoints MS Senator Roger Wicker as Secretary of Defense. A special election is held in mid-2021 and it's initially seen as a lock for the GOP. But GOP infighting, a stellar Democrat, and decreasing popularity for Arnold leads Democrat Brandon Presley winning by a landslide margin. Post-COVID inflation hits America hard and Arnold faces immense backlash after his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Roe v. Wade is not overturned in this timeline, but these voters does know that, of course.

Democrats flip 8 seats in the Senate. Martha McSally loses to Mark Kelly in AZ and Doug Collins loses to Raphael Warnock in GA, both rematches of their 2020 special elections. Kate Marshall defeats Joe Heck in NV, Cheri Beasley claims the open seat in NC by defeating former governor Pat McCrory, John Fetterman defeats Dave McCormick in PA, Mandela Barnes defeats Ron Johnson in WI, and Colin van Ostern narrowly ousts Kelly Ayotte in NH. Faced with the prospect of a competitive election for the first time in his 42 year career, Chuck Grassley decides retires in IA and Michael Franken subsequently defeats Ashley Hinson).

The presidential primary field is shaping up for the 2024 presidential election, and it looks like the GOP is gonna be snubknuckled in two years time. Let's see in the finale tomorrow

Part 1

Part 2

Hi again! Part 3/4 of the Arnold Amendment timeline inspired by u/Environmental_Cap104's TCT mod is here. 2022 turns out to be an absolute blue wave, with democrats finally controlling the Senate for the first time since 2012. The House is also a bloodbath for the GOP. Here is a notable divergence from OTL: Arnold's SCOTUS justices decide that gerrymandering is unconstitutional and requires non-gerrymandered maps from every state. These were a pain to edit: some maps are taken from this archived 538-page, while others are created by the legend u/Cobiuss, who helped me with custom maps for some states. A fun detail is that Minnesota only has 7 districts instead of 8, and New York 29 instead of 28. This is because IRL, NY lost that seat by 89 people (!), a seat that went to MN.

Early in his second term, Arnold appoints MS Senator Roger Wicker as Secretary of Defense. A special election is held in mid-2021 and it's initially seen as a lock for the GOP. But GOP infighting, a stellar Democrat, and decreasing popularity for Arnold leads Democrat Brandon Presley winning by a landslide margin. Post-COVID inflation hits America hard and Arnold faces immense backlash after his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Roe v. Wade is not overturned in this timeline, but these voters does know that, of course.

Democrats flip 8 seats in the Senate. Martha McSally loses to Mark Kelly in AZ and Doug Collins loses to Raphael Warnock in GA, both rematches of their 2020 special elections. Kate Marshall defeats Joe Heck in NV, Cheri Beasley claims the open seat in NC by defeating former governor Pat McCrory, John Fetterman defeats Dave McCormick in PA, Mandela Barnes defeats Ron Johnson in WI, and Colin van Ostern narrowly ousts Kelly Ayotte in NH. Faced with the prospect of a competitive election for the first time in his 42 year career, Chuck Grassley decides retires in IA and Michael Franken subsequently defeats Ashley Hinson).

The presidential primary field is shaping up for the 2024 presidential election, and it looks like the GOP is gonna be snubknuckled in two years time. Let's see in the finale tomorrow

Part 1

Hi! This is part 2 out of 4 of the Arnold Amendment series inspired by u/Environmental_Cap104's TCT mod with the same name. These slides cover Arnold's (somewhat) comfortable re-election and the downballot effects. Arnold is a strong incumbent and was already on track to win 2020, but he benefits from COVID-19's rally-around-the-flag-effect (he takes the pandemic seriously and advocates for the vaccine).

Biden doesn't run in this timeline because does not think the country is in danger with Arnie at the helm. Arnold also strongly condemned the 2017 Charlottesville riots, which Biden cited as the reason for running OTL. Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe instead emerges as the establishment choice, but is upset by political newcomer Pete Buttigieg. He performs strong enough to win back Michigan, Minnesota, Maine and New Mexico, but in the general regardless.

In the Senate, many Senate republicans are in good position, with John Cornyn and Susan Collins winning re-election by over 20 points. Jason Lewis narrowly defeats Tina Smith in Minnesota, while John Hickenlooper defeats Cory Gardner in Colorado. Despite Arnold carrying Georgia by 8.1%, Jon Ossoff unseats incumbent David Perdue by 0.84% in a earth-shattering upset. In the special election, interim appointee Doug Collins defeats Raphael Warnock in the first round, avoiding a runoff (Collins was appointed by governor Casey Cagle, who wins the GOP primary in 2018).

Arnold heads into his second term with a newfound majority in both chambers of congress, and things are initially looking good for him. Will the political pendulum swing back in time for the 2022 midterms? Stay tuned for part 3 tomorrow.

Part 1

Hi! This is part 2 out of 4 of the Arnold Amendment series inspired by u/Environmental_Cap104's TCT mod with the same name. These slides cover Arnold's (somewhat) comfortable re-election and the downballot effects. Arnold is a strong incumbent and was already on track to win 2020, but he benefits from COVID-19's rally-around-the-flag-effect (he takes the pandemic seriously and advocates for the vaccine).

Biden doesn't run in this timeline because does not think the country is in danger with Arnie at the helm. Arnold also strongly condemned the 2017 Charlottesville riots, which Biden cited as the reason for running OTL. Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe instead emerges as the establishment choice, but is upset by political newcomer Pete Buttigieg. He performs strong enough to win back Michigan, Minnesota, Maine and New Mexico, but in the general regardless.

In the Senate, many Senate republicans are in good position, with John Cornyn and Susan Collins winning re-election by over 20 points. Jason Lewis narrowly defeats Tina Smith in Minnesota, while John Hickenlooper defeats Cory Gardner in Colorado. Despite Arnold carrying Georgia by 8.1%, Jon Ossoff unseats incumbent David Perdue by 0.84% in a earth-shattering upset. In the special election, interim appointee Doug Collins defeats Raphael Warnock in the first round, avoiding a runoff (Collins was appointed by governor Casey Cagle, who wins the GOP primary in 2018).

Arnold heads into his second term with a newfound majority in both chambers of congress, and things are initially looking good for him. Will the political pendulum swing back in time for the 2022 midterms? Stay tuned for part 3 tomorrow.

Hi! This is my first major project here. It's part 1 out of 4 and explores a timeline where Arnold Schwarzenegger is eligible to run for president in 2016 (inspired by the Arnold Amendment mod by u/Environmental_Cap104, although he was probably not the first to have this idea). I have merged the 2016 and 2018 elections into one post because there is not much divergence from OTL yet. I have Wikipedia articles for all major elections in this timeline (except the governor races because I really can't be bothered with them. I have a spreadsheet with those however.)

Arnold governs as a moderate republican with lots of cross-over support from democrats. While he is personally popular during his first term, he is a little overzealous and attempts to use his majority in congress to do a bunch of things. This includes an attempt to add a Balanced Budget Amendment to the constitution, which fails spectacularly. Even though senate democrats need to defend a bunch of states won by Arnie in 2016, Republicans receive a huge beating in the 2018 midterms, just like in our timeline. But will 2020 be Judgement Day for Arnold? Come back tomorrow to find out.

Hi! This is my first major project here. It's part 1 out of 4 and explores a timeline where Arnold Schwarzenegger is eligible to run for president in 2016 (inspired by the Arnold Amendment mod by u/Environmental_Cap104, although he was probably not the first to have this idea). I have merged the 2016 and 2018 elections into one post because there is not much divergence from OTL yet. I have Wikipedia articles for all major elections in this timeline (except the governor races because I really can't be bothered with them. I have a spreadsheet with those however.)

Arnold governs as a moderate republican with lots of cross-over support from democrats. While he is personally popular during his first term, he is a little overzealous and attempts to use his majority in congress to do a bunch of things. This includes an attempt to add a Balanced Budget Amendment to the constitution, which fails spectacularly. Even though senate democrats need to defend a bunch of states won by Arnie in 2016, Republicans receive a huge beating in the 2018 midterms, just like in our timeline. But will 2020 be Judgement Day for Arnold? Come back tomorrow to find out.

That is to say, what if Jon Ossoff faced Kelly Loeffler in the special election and Raphael Warnock faced David Perdue in the regular election? Would both still win, would Ossoff get re-elected in 2022 etc.

What about 1996? Does Clinton's Third Way remain or do the Dems revert back to New Deal-era policy?

Glenn Youngkin won Virginia back in 2021, which was considered very impressive, since Biden won it by 10 points just the year before. His campaign was masterfully executed, walking a careful tightrope between distancing himself from Trump post January 6th, while still welcoming his endorsement and keeping him close enough to placate the Republican base. In terms of appearance, Youngkin was soft-spoken, presented as a moderate and sort of had the vibes of a relatable suburban dad with his distinct red fleece vest. Basically, he didn’t instill the visceral fear response many Virginians harbored for other Republicans.

After his win, Youngkin was considered a rising star. Political analysts noted a “formula” for winning as a Republican in blue states: Calmly focus on local issues and the economy while letting your opponent make a fool out of themselves by constantly trying to nationalize the race and invoking the orange man at every turn. I can't recall an election since that utilized this playbook, not even his own lieutenant governor! (I'll get to that later)

Virginia Governors are famously ineligible from running for consecutive terms, but I can’t help but think that if they could, Youngkin would have made the 2025 race significantly closer. Youngkin is a smart guy: If he had his own re-election in mind, I cannot imagine that he would vigorously campaign for Trump like he did in our timeline, or emphasize polarizing culture war issues to the extent that he did. And most Virginians still approve of Youngkin!

Despite all of this, Youngkin may have very well still lost, through no fault of his own. Voters blamed the ongoing shutdown on the incompetence of national Republicans, all the while Trump himself was subject to massive disapproval by Virginians. Of course, Winsome Earle-Sears certainly didn’t help herself by ignoring the things that got her predecessor elected. Instead of keeping her distance from Trump, she actively sought his endorsement, making her seem desperate since he all but ignored her, in addition to alienating large portions of the electorate. As a result, the ensuing Democrat landslide and coattails down-ballot basically ensured the death of the Virginia GOP.

Does Glenn Youngkin have any kind of political future? He is a long-shot candidate for the White House in 2028 (potential VP/cabinet pick perhaps?) and he has already declined a run for the U.S. Senate in 2026. And most importantly, why was his successful strategy for winning never adopted by other Republican candidates?

Carter runs a good campaign and finally assumes the heavenly mandate he was promised! Reagan doesn't know what's waiting for him in '80...

Following the impeachment of a disgraced Donald Trump, America turns to an elder statesman for a steady governing hand.