▲ 20 r/YAPms
Keisha Lace Bottoms underperformed in the city where she was mayor...
u/_BCConservative — 21 hours ago
u/_BCConservative
CO Governor says waiting until midterms to make trade deal with the US unlikely to change much
u/_BCConservative — 1 day ago
▲ 3 r/YAPms
Voter "enthusiasm" effect is 0.5-1% of actual election margin (analysis of 2006-2010 elections)
u/_BCConservative — 2 days ago
▲ 20 r/YAPms
Trump needs to solve the Iran problem - and the bad polling IMO is probably going to result in desperation moves
I'm going to be real, I still have my prediction as D+5-ish, but if the Iran war continues past the Summer, I will adjust my prediction to D+8-9 (basically 2018 GCB). That seems to be the direction things are at. I doubt NYT is that far off in that scenario (even though it has been off in the past, the crosstabs are in line with other high-quality polls (minus AtlasIntel).
Trump needs to end the war and get the oil flowing again to get things not to be a complete shitshow in the midterms.
Trump has been going back and forth with negotiations, but at some point (just like Ukraine negotiations), Trump is going to just give up.
And Holden Bloodfeast has a proposal:
Iran cannot export any oil due to the US blockade of its ports. It hasn't worked (so something like a Kharg invasion is unlikely to either.)
People are celebrating the polls being bad for Trump, but he needs a win. Ironically, it's probably better for everyone that people are less pissed off at Trump, because the more people get pissed at Trump, the more desperate he becomes to get Iran to the peace table.
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At a certain point (probably over the summer), I really think Trump is actually eventually going to lose his nerve and snap.
Bombing out the power plants and desalination/water facilities would likely trigger a simultaneous response on the other side by Iran as well, though Iran has actually been already starting to target energy infrastructure (including a fucking nuclear power plant)
The next things down the list would be the desalination facilities and aqueducts, then bridges, then anything else the Iranian regime could use to generate income or feed itself.
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This is likely to result in a refugee crisis out of Iran as Iran itself implodes from the inside-out.
But that's Europe's problem, not America's.
u/_BCConservative — 3 days ago
▲ 31 r/YAPms
What if the US electoral map was built by an AI to maximize compactness? (RIP 538)
u/_BCConservative — 5 days ago