My 270ToWin Consensus
I’ve been pretty frustrated with the forecasts by most major forecasters. They’ve played it mad safe this year. I think they’ve weighted the house maps specifically to a 2022-2024 environment of R+1-D+2. So this is my personal forecast for 2026. GCB D+6
House:
I have Democrats as overwhelmingly likely to win it back. I have them winning around 224-232 seats. A lot of the lean R seats I have could also honestly go either way. I think the Florida gerrymander and Texas gerrymander could also fail to make major gains as well.
Senate:
I have Republicans winning 50-50 right now, but the majority could go either way. I have Alaska, Maine, and NC flipping blue, but Alaska and Maine are still tossups. I wouldn’t be surprised if Collins were to win again, but she has gotten electorally weaker since 2014, and I belie this will be her weakest run yet. Her 2020 win is kinda deceiving, she won 51-43, but she only narrowly avoided the runoff, and the third place candidate had ties to the Green Party, so it could have very well been R+4-5. Although Platner is still a very weak candidate, I have him winning 51-49 in a runoff. NC is an autoflip atp. Peltola is a strong candidate running in a blue year against an unpopular incumbent, it doesn’t help though that she is running in Alaska, but she is still my slight favorite to win. I have her as a one point favorite in an instant runoff. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Brown wins in Ohio. Talarico is in an uphill fight but the race is still running a close race against Paxton, it’s kind of an inverse of Maine. I don’t know why people have Nebraska as likely or safe R, but Ricketts is still my favorite to win, around R+5-6. Iowa is also one I don’t think will be a likely hold. It will be around R+5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if both flip. Two months ago I had Rogers slightly ahead in Michigan, but El-Sayed is now my slight favorite to win, but he underperforms compared to other Dems in this environment.
Governors:
I have dems gaining 1 mansion. KLB is a terrible candidate, but Georgia is trending blue and could vote similar to Virginia in the future. Iowa is definitely a tossup, and maybe even tilt or lean D with Sand. In Wisconsin, Hong likely will not win the primary, even with the DSA wave. I have Barnes winning the primary, and winning +5 in the general. Arizona might also be likely D atp, the Republicans are fielding terrible candidates, maybe as bad as Lake, but unlike 2022 this is a blue-favored year. Acton is kinda of a milquetoast candidate in terms of electabilit, but Ramaswammy is a TERRIBLE candidate for Ohio, he doesn’t have much rural appeal, which if you’re a R you need it to win Ohio. I see a lot of people making the case that Florida is a sleeper flip this yea. But I just don’t see it, Even with this environment, and if Fishbach were to somehow win the primary, it would at worst be R+4.
With the Iran War starting back up again, and the cat and mouse gain with it, along with a strutting economy, the GCB could go up to D+9 or even 10.