r/fivethirtyeight

Source: https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55086-uk-climate-change-attitudes-unchanged-by-heatwave

Here is an analysis of the NYT/Siena polls, including:

1. The Poll results

2. The polls sample's recall vote (-10 means Trump won the sample by 10 pts in 2024)

3. The actual 2024 result in that state

4. The difference between the poll sample and the 2024 electorate.

The NYT/Siena polls assume a 2026 electorate that's a few points bluer than 2024. Although there are interesting differences between the states. Republicans might be over-represented in some of the polled states. Full analysis can be found here.

Poll Results: Gallup Social Series Poll, March 2-18 2026, random sample, n=1,000.

Poll Results: Bisconti Research 2026 Nuclear Energy Public Opinion Survey, May 4–10 2026, online opt-in panel (Quest Mindshare), n=1,016

Source (ABC News): “A cat and a dog are competing to become Travis County’s next pet mayor“

Just released

We can look at individual poll results but I think this one particular question is more telling:
"What is your preference for the outcome of this year's U.S."

The Democrats lead in only two states for this question despite all the other results which are more favorable to Dems.

https://www.buildzoom.com/blog/the-toughest-places-to-build-behind-the-scenes-of-a-wall-street-journal-analysis

I’ve been pretty frustrated with the forecasts by most major forecasters. They’ve played it mad safe this year. I think they’ve weighted the house maps specifically to a 2022-2024 environment of R+1-D+2. So this is my personal forecast for 2026. GCB D+6

House:

I have Democrats as overwhelmingly likely to win it back. I have them winning around 224-232 seats. A lot of the lean R seats I have could also honestly go either way. I think the Florida gerrymander and Texas gerrymander could also fail to make major gains as well.

Senate:

I have Republicans winning 50-50 right now, but the majority could go either way. I have Alaska, Maine, and NC flipping blue, but Alaska and Maine are still tossups. I wouldn’t be surprised if Collins were to win again, but she has gotten electorally weaker since 2014, and I belie this will be her weakest run yet. Her 2020 win is kinda deceiving, she won 51-43, but she only narrowly avoided the runoff, and the third place candidate had ties to the Green Party, so it could have very well been R+4-5. Although Platner is still a very weak candidate, I have him winning 51-49 in a runoff. NC is an autoflip atp. Peltola is a strong candidate running in a blue year against an unpopular incumbent, it doesn’t help though that she is running in Alaska, but she is still my slight favorite to win. I have her as a one point favorite in an instant runoff. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Brown wins in Ohio. Talarico is in an uphill fight but the race is still running a close race against Paxton, it’s kind of an inverse of Maine. I don’t know why people have Nebraska as likely or safe R, but Ricketts is still my favorite to win, around R+5-6. Iowa is also one I don’t think will be a likely hold. It will be around R+5, and I wouldn’t be surprised if both flip. Two months ago I had Rogers slightly ahead in Michigan, but El-Sayed is now my slight favorite to win, but he underperforms compared to other Dems in this environment.

Governors:

I have dems gaining 1 mansion. KLB is a terrible candidate, but Georgia is trending blue and could vote similar to Virginia in the future. Iowa is definitely a tossup, and maybe even tilt or lean D with Sand. In Wisconsin, Hong likely will not win the primary, even with the DSA wave. I have Barnes winning the primary, and winning +5 in the general. Arizona might also be likely D atp, the Republicans are fielding terrible candidates, maybe as bad as Lake, but unlike 2022 this is a blue-favored year. Acton is kinda of a milquetoast candidate in terms of electabilit, but Ramaswammy is a TERRIBLE candidate for Ohio, he doesn’t have much rural appeal, which if you’re a R you need it to win Ohio. I see a lot of people making the case that Florida is a sleeper flip this yea. But I just don’t see it, Even with this environment, and if Fishbach were to somehow win the primary, it would at worst be R+4.

With the Iran War starting back up again, and the cat and mouse gain with it, along with a strutting economy, the GCB could go up to D+9 or even 10.

Source: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/7/2/billionaires-corporate-landlords-and-ai-companies-are-seen-as-among-the-worst-actors-in-us-society