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r/fivethirtyeight

▲ 151 r/fivethirtyeight

There's a strong correlation between Gallup Party ID values and the election results, especially since 2016. The recent D+11 foreshadows a cataclysm for Republicans.

u/Beginning_Bad_868 — 10 days ago
▲ 190 r/fivethirtyeight

Maine US Senate Sep 25 - 29, 2026: Troy Jackson (D) 49.3% (+2.8%), Susan Collins (R) 46.5%, Don’t know 4.2% - Maine People’s Resource Center (B/C) 684 LV

drive.google.com
u/R2_SWE2 — 10 days ago
▲ 120 r/fivethirtyeight

[ACLU Texas/Change Research] Poll of El Paso County, Texas: James Talarico 51%, Ken Paxton 25% | Gina Hinojosa 52%, Greg Abbott 28% | Trump Approval Rating: 31% approve, 65% disapprove

elpasomatters.org
u/Delmer9713 — 10 days ago
▲ 60 r/fivethirtyeight

Canada defies the trend again, as center-left Parti Quebecois defeats incumbent right-wing populist CAQ after 8 years

u/First-Ear-1049 — 9 days ago
▲ 135 r/fivethirtyeight

[Reuters/Ipsos] Trump Approval Rating: 32% approve, 65% disapprove, which remains at a record low with this pollster | Generic Ballot: Democrat 44%, Republican 37% among registered voters. | Among Latino voters: Democrat 52%, Republican 26%

reuters.com
u/Delmer9713 — 10 days ago
▲ 81 r/fivethirtyeight

VoteHub rating change: North Carolina Senate - Likely D -> Solid D

95% chance of winning in VoteHub models with estimated win margin at 9.6%p.

x.com
u/hawawa-server — 9 days ago
▲ 53 r/fivethirtyeight

I’d like to propose a new rule: If you post a poll of a county, city, or congressional district, you have to include in your post what the most recent result was in that same district.

I would like there to be a new rule in this subreddit requiring what my title says: if you post a poll that is below the state level, you have to include the most recent election result in the post body.

I have seen many people in this sub ask for others to include this, which made me want to make this post requesting it.

reddit.com
u/After-Professional-8 — 10 days ago
▲ 2 r/fivethirtyeight+2 crossposts

Kamala Harris has now officially led 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary polls in these states: - New York (NYC) - Michigan - Tennessee - Texas - North Carolina - Ohio - Minnesota - Bonus: Georgia (technically Ossoff leads, but I'm rather certain he won't run) (but I was told she couldn't possible

x.com
u/Serious_Meaning5220 — 13 days ago