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r/fivethirtyeight

▲ 137 r/fivethirtyeight

[RealClearPolling] Democrats hold a larger lead in the generic congressional vote than they did at this same point in recent midterm cycles.

u/DarkPriestScorpius — 1 day ago
▲ 20 r/fivethirtyeight

Columbus, Georgia inches closer to electing its first-ever Black Mayor, ahead of a June runoff, but Democrats won only a minority of the vote in the first round—Hugley (D) 45%, Cogle (rightwing ind.) 25%, Breault (R) 13%. Hugley was the only (D) here. 2024 Presidential election—Harris 61%, Trump 38%

u/StarlightDown — 21 hours ago
▲ 55 r/fivethirtyeight

Germany’s far-right AfD achieves its best-ever poll result (again), while the Social Democrats slump at their worst-ever poll result (again)—AfD 29, Christian Democrat 22, Green 14, Social Democrat 12. Friedrich Merz wields an incredible 87% disapproval rating, a record-high for any German leader.

u/StarlightDown — 1 day ago
▲ 19 r/fivethirtyeight+1 crossposts

Latest poll of 2026 Québec provincial election (from Léger, A+ rated) shows a new three-way race—Parti Québécois (separatist) 30%, Parti Libéral (non-separatist) 28%, Coalition Avenir Québec (non-separatist) 22%, Parti Conservateur (non-separatist) 11%, Québec Solidaire (separatist) 8%, other 1%.

u/StarlightDown — 1 day ago
▲ 31 r/fivethirtyeight

[Vox] The deadliest animals in the world, by the number of human deaths inflicted annually—Mosquito 760,000 deaths, Human 600,000 deaths, Snake 100,000 deaths, all other animals combined <100,000 combined deaths. In 2014, Sanofi terminated production of a key antivenin, due to lack of profitability.

u/StarlightDown — 1 day ago
▲ 74 r/fivethirtyeight+4 crossposts

Redistricting chart updated to May 2026

Republicans clearly started the redistricting war, being the first states to VOLUNTARILY perform mid-decade gerrymandering.

Source included on chart.

u/TankUMrMinor — 1 day ago
▲ 90 r/fivethirtyeight

Despite extreme disappointment among Democrats with last night's Georgia results, Black turnout soared and Dems still had a big turnout advantage

Link to source tweet

> Two-party turnout in Georgia’s 2026 gubernatorial primary, mapped by county, with 2024 presidential results shown on the right. > > Democrats dominated the Black Belt and Metro Atlanta alike, with Black enthusiasm through the roof post-VRA.

🔵 53.6% | 🔴 46.4% Statewide

Obviously there was a big failure among GA Dems at getting their voters to understand who to vote for in the SC races, with many voting for the incumbents. Now the questions are, how do GA Dems learn from this mistake and keep their voters engaged for November after disappointment last night, especially with an apparently unpopular gubernatorial candidate in Keisha Lance Bottoms (who under-performed in Fulton County), and will they be able to do it?

reddit.com
u/SecretComposer — 1 day ago
▲ 32 r/fivethirtyeight+1 crossposts

In 1852, by a single vote (4,683 to 4,682), Louisiana's 1st Congressional District voted for Winfield Scott, the Whig Party nominee, over Franklin Pierce, the Democratic Party nominee. Pierce won statewide with 51% of the vote.

Source for the data: https://www.newspapers.com/image/26664261/

The 1st district is Orleans, left bank

The map key is:
Blue: 50–60% voted for Pierce
Yellow: 50–60% voted for Scott

u/After-Professional-8 — 1 day ago