r/fivethirtyeight

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/19/how-democratic-socialist-angie-nixon-pulled-off-an-upset-win-florida/?utm\_term=jtk-flex-ppa&utm\_content=cmorse

Source.

https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/bk00mab11wgg

Like Trump, who is challenged by the Groypers, Netanyahu faces a similar challenge in which the movement they both built around their cult of personality is beginning to develop an independent and more radical ideological character. In the 1970s and then the 1980s, Republicans like Richard Nixon and later political consultants like Roger Stone (Nixon's protégé and later the one who convinced Trump to run for president) and Roger Ailes (founder of Fox News) recognized that there was a large public of voters who felt alienated from the political, media and cultural establishment.

This included, among others, the white working class, Christians and peripheral populations who felt that the elites were taking their place and destroying the identity of the country. Nixon built a large part of his career on presenting himself as representing the "silent majority" who would bring law and order against blacks in the face of the elites, the media and the establishment. After his fall in the Watergate affair, Nixon blamed the media, and the narrative that state institutions and the media were working against the right-wing public strengthened on the American right.

Later, the understanding also took shape that in order to govern, it was not enough to win elections; one had to build a media system that would create a lasting political identity. This is how Fox News was eventually born, at the initiative of Ailes and with the support of billionaire Rupert Murdoch. Like Nixon and Trump, Bibi sees himself in a similar way, the representative of the traditional and patriotic people who are silenced by the 'establishment' against the elites. He and his associates, nationalists but cynical, took care to manipulate this sentiment to the benefit of the movement built around Netanyahu, but in the 1990s Bibi was not strong enough and fell quickly, but even then he understood that in order to govern, you need your own media outlet. After the September 11 attacks, Fox became a major force on the American right, not only providing news from a right-wing perspective, but also fostering a sense of an ongoing struggle between the “real America” and institutions perceived as hostile.

Politics ceased to be an election-day event and became part of viewers’ everyday identities. Although Fox was not an extremist, it did fuel the conspiratorial and extremist sentiment among its audience, creating an audience that was more open to conspiracy theories and more radical currents. Then came Trump, right alongside the rise of the networks and other right-wing media outlets. Trump, and Roger Stone, fueled this sentiment for his personal and business needs. Trump, surrounded by criminals and cynics like Stone, gathered the Trumpists to him, but at that time they were not an organized political movement with a presence but more slaves to Trump and his people for the sake of his personality cult.

A similar thing happened in Israel: Bibi manipulated the young peripheral Mizrahi for the sake of his personality cult and the struggle against the old establishment, but like Trump, he didn’t really give them a place when they weren’t an organized movement.

This has changed recently: Channel 14, alongside the networks, and especially after October 7th but also before, had a similar effect to Fox but even more so: from a situation where politics was a once-in-a-lifetime event, Channel 14 turned politics into a daily struggle, a situation where people consume his propaganda every day, all day long, and establish an identity based on it.

Both Bibi and Trump took it upon themselves as a personal project to build what is called "right-wing media," which also gave a voice to the young base, among others (young Catholics and new media christians in the US and similar trends in Israel). In addition, radical intellectuals who are interested in a fundamental right-wing revolution or young and aggressive influencers began to emerge (whether TPUSA, Jack Posobiec, and their ilk, or Ben Gvir's new media influencers).

Alongside processes that include a combination of traditionalism and networks, a new current has emerged on the right, consisting of thugs, criminals, and young activists who were originally part of the leader's personality cult, but due to their devotion to the personality cult and the fight against the Deep State, they began to develop an independent ideology that did emerge from the personality cult and the Deep State's propaganda machine, but was also more extreme: with Trump, these are white populists who speak on behalf of the lower class, are interested in the destruction of state institutions and the Deep State, hate the rich, and speak less on behalf of the A theological vision but in the name of Christ is King and America First. In Israel, angry peripheral thugs fueled by conspiracies, network influencers, nouveau riche, etc. who are interested in the fundamental destruction of the existing order, street activity and constitutional crisis.

And we see this result: the evangelicals, neoconservatives and businessmen of the past are losing power and those who grow are a new current based on the destruction of state institutions, populist economics, traditionalism, an authoritarian and post-liberal agenda, revenge and network activity. The Capitol breakers or Ben Gvir's thugs, and people who a decade ago were on the margins, are becoming influential and supported by politicians. Conspirators, thugs, and network activists are becoming influencers of public opinion who are courted by politicians, and from a situation where they were a cult of personality movement, a current has emerged with an ideology that is based on the persona of the leader but is grouped around more extreme figures. For example, Derrick Evans, a thug who broke into the Capitol and received a pardon from Trump, recently came out against Trump saying that Trump is not "America First" enough. Many Bibi supporters, especially young people who drink conspiracies, are more connected to ben gvir and are more extreme than Netanyahu - and that's how we got to the situation where the authoritarian-anarchist right is taking over the Republican Party, Ben Gvir is trying to take over the party of Netanyahu and stage a kind of coup by interfering in the party's primaries, and Bibi needs to go down to Likud territory to prevent excessively extreme figures from gaining strength.

This is a Trump +18 district that includes Cranberry, Harmony, and Zelienople. While the main election will take place in November, Dukes winning represents a big shift towards democrats even in an exurb of Pittsburgh.

Also a reminder that with a few over performances like this in November Democrats could control both houses of the PA legislature for the first time this century.

😂😂

Note: Race to the WH has shifted Florida to Likely R since this page was copied.