A Reminder: Primaries Say Nothing About Electability
I often hear people say that because candidates are strong in primaries, it shows their strength in the general. Like, if El-Sayed could beat Stevens despite the wall of cash thrown at him, he must be a strong candidate for the general too. Or Angie Nixon will activate a secret bloc of voters Vindman would have lost since she pummeled him in the primary.
But keep in mind that Mark Robinson massively won his primary. And Kari Lake, and Herschel Walker, and Doug Mastriano… It turns out popularity with the base does not necessarily translate to popularity with independents and swing voters. Just because you won the 20% of partisans who showed up on a Tuesday in Summer does not mean you can win the general.
In fact, people who have soft performances in their primaries like Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez often perform BETTER than those who the base loves, because they’re more in tune with their district’s average voter than the partisan primary voter. Thanks for coming to my TedTalk.