Building the Pessimism-Proof Candidate

Full article: https://changeshapers.substack.com/p/building-the-pessimism-proof-candidate

Based on this outlook expressed by swing voters, what kind of candidate might convince them to support the incumbent party despite pessimism about the economy? I believe such a candidate would need three attributes:

Independence, Not Ideology

These swing voters wanted a candidate independent of the political class they viewed as corrupt, remote, and divisive. Note that this does not necessarily mean they want a centrist. When these voters call themselves “moderate,” they do not mean they are situated neatly in the middle of the ideological spectrum. Their actual beliefs are all over the map and do not necessarily conform to the ideological categories we use to define left and right. Their moderation is more temperamental, born from suspicion of party politics as a distraction from problem-solving.

They also show little sign of yearning for progressive, socialist, libertarian, or other ideological candidates that mainstream parties allegedly suppress. They may be open to policies originating from any of these ideologies, but they think of themselves as non-ideological and distrust ideological language.

Candor, Not Combativeness

They yearn for rhetoric that is easy to understand and focused on results rather than process. They do not want a smooth talker, but someone blunt and willing to tell the truth as they see it, even if it rubs people the wrong way. They do not need to agree with everything the candidate says. Instead, they want a sense that he or she is honest and courageous enough to help the country face facts and solve problems.

While some value Trump’s combativeness, many see it as pointlessly divisive. In general, they do not value pugnaciousness for its own sake, and certainly not when it is partisan. They dislike negative campaigning and want to hear candidates explain what tangible results they will deliver.

An Economic Hook

Because they are so results-oriented, they want a specific reason to believe a candidate can improve their lives. This might be a personal attribute, like Trump’s image as a businessman, or a signature issue, like Biden’s attempt to eliminate student debt.

Possible Fits

Now that we have this profile, who are the candidates who might have saved the Democrats in 2024—or who might save the GOP in 2028?

Party Dissidents

One type of possible candidate is a prominent dissident within his or her own party who represents a break from the incumbent administration, especially on economic policy.

2024: Bernie Sanders

Despite nearly winning the Democratic nomination in 2016, Sanders is not formally a Democrat, and his democratic socialist politics clearly distinguished him from Biden. He is known for his blunt manner and lack of attachment to the party establishment. Although he lacks executive accomplishments, his advocacy of Medicare for All gives him a signature issue that many voters can easily understand and support. On the other hand, he is even older than Biden, and independent voters were especially critical of Biden’s age. He is also firmly identified with the left, which could weaken his independent image among anti-partisan voters.

Progressive representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ro Khanna might also have been possibilities, but neither has Sanders’ “crazy uncle” vibe that helps some voters accept his radicalism—something he shares with Trump. They were also among Biden’s last defenders, which damaged their reputations as party rebels.

2028: Rand Paul

What Sanders represents for socialism within the Democratic Party, Rand Paul and his father Ron represent for libertarianism within the GOP. This gives Rand Paul distance from Trump on economic issues, foreign policy, and civil liberties. On the other hand, he lacks executive accomplishments and a signature issue. Personality-wise, he is blunt to the point of crankiness but lacks the eccentric charm of his father. His prospects may depend on whether he can develop a more positive and compelling message.

Outsiders

Another possible type of candidate is someone who has never held office but has support from an important faction within the party.

2024: Andrew Yang

Like Sanders, although Yang sought the Democratic nomination in 2020, he is not a member of the party, having left it to co-found the Forward Party. However, he was still invested enough in the party that he was the only prominent backer of Rep. Dean Phillips’ attempt to unseat Biden in the Democratic primaries. If he had jumped back in to challenge Biden himself, his success as a businessman and his writings about entrepreneurship and Universal Basic Income would have given him solid standing as an economic problem-solver.

2028: Tucker Carlson

After years of being Trump’s most prominent backer among media personalities, Carlson recently broke with the President over the war with Iran. He, thus, has both impeccable MAGA movement credentials and can make himself out as an independent more in tune with the people than JD Vance, who is forced to defend Trump’s unpopular policies. He has no record of accomplishment as a businessman or a signature issue and might flame out completely in primaries dominated by Trump die-hards, but it will be interesting to see if he makes a run for it like many are speculating he will.

Looking at these names, it becomes clear why incumbent parties rarely nominate candidates capable of saving them in the face of certain defeat. Doing so would require a thorough repudiation of the incumbent president or vice president and their policies, which are usually still popular with the party base. But what if most of the party believed the president should step aside—for example, because he was very old and visibly declining cognitively? If everything aligned just right, might there be room for a pessimism-busting candidate to break through and save the day?

Read the full analysis here: https://changeshapers.substack.com/p/building-the-pessimism-proof-candidate