May 20th, 2026~USA Rare Earth Gets An Upgrade As Government Redefines Sector Risk

USA Rare Earth Gets An Upgrade As Government Redefines Sector Risk

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USA Rare Earth is shaping up as the go-to rare earth stock in the West, according to Cantor Fitzgerald.

The firm's analysts, Derek Soderberg and Drew Nordquist, raised their 12-month price targets to $35 from $30, reiterating an Overweight rating.

There are several catalysts supporting the bull case. Production is accelerating, a transformative acquisition is closing, European production is expanding, and the strong U.S. government backing is de-risking the investment thesis.

From Mine to Magnet

USAR commissioned phase 1a of its Stillwater, Oklahoma, magnet manufacturing facility in March, setting up initial commercial shipments for the second quarter of 2026. The 600 metric tons per year production line should reach full run-rate capacity by year-end, with phase 1b bringing total Stillwater capacity to 1,200 metric tons in the first quarter of 2027.

Revenue estimates more than doubled in the latest note, with 2026 projections rising to $80.8 million from a prior $40.4 million, and 2027 estimates surging to $453.3 million from $197.2 million.

Closing the Loop

The revision reflects the inclusion of Serra Verde‘s contribution following an expected third-quarter acquisition close. After the share appreciation, the $2.8 billion transaction is now worth closer to $3.64 billion.

The Brazilian miner is one of the few large-scale producers of heavy rare-earth elements outside China. Thus, it has an outsized impact on efforts to reduce dependence on Asian supply chains.

USAR expects Serra Verde to achieve annualized run-rate EBITDA of $550–$650 million by end-2027, with the combined entity targeting approximately $1.8 billion in annualized EBITDA by end-2030.

Alongside the Serra Verde deal, USAR’s Less Common Metals (LCM) subsidiary in Cheshire, UK, achieved its first commercial pour of 99%–99.5% purity yttrium metal in April — a milestone for aerospace-grade thermal barrier coatings. LCM is targeting 3,000 MTPA of metal-making and alloy capacity by year-end.

A strategic investment in French firm Carester further extends the European platform, with plans for a 3,750 MTPA plant in Lacq, France, co-located with Carester’s oxide and recycling facility.

Mobilization of Public Capital

Arguably, the most significant event is the pending $1.6 billion Department of Commerce funding agreement under the CHIPS Program. This deal (expected to finalize this month), alongside a $1.5 billion common stock PIPE closed in January and a $1.75 billion cash pile as of March 31, was the main driver behind the valuation upgrade.

The government support is not unique to USAR. The Trump administration has committed roughly $18.6 billion in financing for critical minerals across 60 projects, according to BMO Global analysts George Heppel and Max Yerrill.

“Never before in the USA’s history have we seen a mobilization of capital and policy in support of critical mineral supply at the scale of what has been achieved in the past two years,” the BMO analysts wrote, calling it a “great financial pivot.”

Yet, the large skew toward rare earths came at the expense of tungsten, antimony, nickel, cobalt, and other strategically important metals.

The government support is not unique to USAR. The Trump administration has committed roughly $18.6 billion in financing for critical minerals across 60 projects, according to BMO Global analysts George Heppel and Max Yerrill.

“Never before in the USA’s history have we seen a mobilization of capital and policy in support of critical mineral supply at the scale of what has been achieved in the past two years,” the BMO analysts wrote, calling it a “great financial pivot.”

Yet, the large skew toward rare earths came at the expense of tungsten, antimony, nickel, cobalt, and other strategically important metals.

Supply chain security beyond 2027 is another concern, particularly for heavy rare earths. While light rare-earth feedstock agreements are in place through that year, analysts warn that securing dysprosium and terbium supply thereafter — absent a fully integrated supply chain — could put long-term earnings at risk.

Environmental compliance obligations and a thin domestic talent pool in rare earth processing round out the key risk factors.

A few reads with your morning brew of choice...

NioCorp is/was there....

Project Blue is pleased to announce its inaugural Critical Materials Conference: Aerospace & Defence 2026, taking place in Washington DC from 19-20 May.

The conference will bring together stakeholders from across the aerospace and defence value chains to explore the critical raw materials enabling advanced manufacturing, national security, and next-generation technologies.

The programme will feature data-led presentations and strategic panel discussions, covering topics such as supply chain resilience, US industrial policy, and material demand outlooks for sectors including fighter jets and drones.

The agenda will also examine battery and semiconductor supply chains through a dual-use lens, as shared reliance on materials is exposing vulnerabilities tied to China-centric production, intensifying debates around export controls, industrial policy, and long-term supply chain security.

Join us in Washington DC for expert insights on key raw materials, including antimony, aluminium, copper, cobalt, gallium, germanium, graphite, indium, lithium, magnesium, nickel, rhenium, rare earths, scandium, silicon, tantalum, tin, titanium, tungsten, and vanadium.

Events

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NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

May 20th, 2026 ~ China Says Rare Earth Controls Lawful, Will Cooperate With US on 'Reasonable' Concerns

China Says Rare Earth Controls Lawful, Will Cooperate With US on 'Reasonable' Concerns

FILE PHOTO: A block with the symbol, atomic number and mass number of Yttrium (Y) element, in this illustration taken January 21, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

China agreed to address concerns around shortages of rare earths such as yttrium and scandium as well as other critical minerals ​during the leaders' summit in Beijing last week, the White House said ⁠on ⁠Sunday.

In response to questions ⁠about that ​statement, China's Ministry of Commerce said both sides had discussed the issue and ​would study and ⁠resolve "each other's reasonable and lawful concerns."

"The Chinese government imposes export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals in accordance with laws and regulations, and reviews applications for compliant, civilian licenses," the statement added.

Issued days apart, the two ⁠statements reflect a new status quo where Washington appears to tacitly accept ⁠the export restrictions. In contrast, six months ago after the leaders' summit in Busan, the White House said they would be dismantled.

ANOTHER YTTRIUM SHIPMENT

Shortages have been most acute for yttrium, which is used to protect turbine blades in aircraft engines or power plants from extreme heat. 

The rare earth issue was highlighted in Sunday's White House statement and a separate interview with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Chinese ⁠customs data also released on Wednesday showed a 10-metric-ton export of yttrium oxide to the U.S. in April, versus 60 tons in March. 

Shipments averaged about 30 tons a month over the 13 months before ​controls were imposed versus 8 tons since.

May 20th, 2026-Chinese, US trade teams hold extensive discussions on rare-earth export control issues, will jointly study solutions to each other's legitimate concerns: MOFCOM

Chinese, US trade teams hold extensive discussions on rare-earth export control issues, will jointly study solutions to each other's legitimate concerns: MOFCOM - Global Times

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Asked to comment on the White House’s statement that China will address US concerns about shortages in the supply chain of rare earths and other critical minerals (including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium), and the US concerns about the ban or restriction on the sale of rare earth production and processing equipment and technology, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said on Wednesday that the China-US economic and trade teams have conducted in-depth communication and exchanges on relevant export control issues, and the two sides will jointly study and resolve each other’s legitimate and lawful concerns. 

The MOFCOM said that the Chinese government imposes export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals in accordance with laws and regulations, and reviews license applications for compliant civilian uses. China is willing to work with the US to promote mutually beneficial cooperation between enterprises of the two countries and create favorable conditions for ensuring the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains, the ministry said.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

Pending Traxys Deal, DFS & EXIM FID are all in motion.... waiting with many!

The disconnect right now is honestly staggering imho. On one side you have a sub-$5 NB market cap sitting around ~$600–650M while the entire Western world is openly scrambling for secure domestic supply of niobium, scandium, titanium, heavy rare earths, NdPr, Dy, Tb, and downstream magnet/alloy capacity. On the other side you have governments throwing BILLIONS at anything remotely capable of breaking China’s stranglehold on critical minerals. Meanwhile, NioCorp already has the ore body, permitted site, metallurgy, pilot work, underground development started, EXIM engagement, existing offtakes, and now a pending Traxys structure that potentially covers virtually the ENTIRE first decade of production. That’s why so many investors are scratching their heads at a $4.93 share price today including me!! =)

What the market seems to still be waiting for is the “de-risking sequence” to become official in black-and-white:

1. signed Traxys definitive agreement,
2. Traxys strategic equity investment,
3. updated DFS proving expanded economics and reserves,
4. EXIM Final Investment Decision, and finally
5. transition from portal work directly into full mine construction.

Once those dominoes fall, Elk Creek stops being viewed as a speculative development story and starts being viewed as a strategic North American industrial platform. That is a completely different valuation framework.

And look at the backdrop forming literally THIS WEEK. Project Blue Critical Materials Conference is centered around aerospace, defense, magnets, scandium, titanium, rare earths, gallium, germanium, and supply-chain security. The U.S. government is openly warning about Chinese rare-earth leverage. Defense contractors are panicking over the 2027 sourcing bans. China’s heavy REE export controls remain in place. Traxys is simultaneously locking up future NdPr/DyTb supply globally. And right in the middle of that sits Elk Creek — one of the ONLY advanced U.S. projects capable of supplying multiple critical mineral streams from one integrated operation.

The reason institutions appear to be accumulating here between $5–6 is likely because they understand something retail still struggles to grasp: once financing is secured, the market no longer values NioCorp as “a company trying to build a mine.” It starts valuing it as a future strategic producer tied directly into U.S. defense, aerospace, advanced alloys, magnet supply chains, and industrial policy. That’s the inflection point everyone is waiting for!

And the six pathways are what make Elk Creek uniquely dangerous to ignore:

• Ferroniobium / Nb₂O₅ for steel, aerospace, pipelines, defense alloys
• Scandium oxide and future ScAl master alloy production
• Titanium dioxide and TiCl₄ vertical integration
• Magnet rare earths (NdPr + Dy/Tb) All pending DFS!
• Future recycling / refining integration
• Mine-to-metal-to-alloy manufacturing optionality in the U.S. and allied nations

If Mark Smith & team NioCorp land the Traxys definitive agreement, publishes a materially expanded DFS, secures EXIM FID, and moves directly from ramp completion into full construction by ~September 2026, then the narrative changes FAST. At that point the market has to ask itself a brutally simple question:

What is the strategic value of one of the only fully integrated domestic critical minerals platforms in North America at the exact moment the West is trying to decouple from China? T.B.D.!

What is the strategic value of one of the only fully integrated domestic critical minerals platforms in North America at the exact moment the West is trying to decouple from China? T.B.D.! ...\"All aboard!\"

While traders obsess over delays of a few weeks on the Traxys binding agreement or the final DFS release, the bigger picture keeps getting louder: Elk Creek is evolving into one of the very few fully integrated U.S. critical minerals platforms capable of supplying niobium, scandium, titanium, magnetic rare earths, ScAl alloys, and potentially future recycling/magnet feedstock into the American defense-industrial base. That is exactly why institutions have been quietly adding in the $5–6 range while Washington is pouring tens of billions into domestic supply chain security.

Mark Smith has repeatedly called Elk Creek a “national strategic asset,” and honestly, the evidence increasingly supports that statement. The U.S. has no primary domestic niobium production, virtually no meaningful scandium production, limited heavy rare earth capability, and major defense vulnerabilities tied to China’s control over dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, and magnet supply chains. Meanwhile, NioCorp already has permitted infrastructure, a completed FS baseline, ongoing EXIM engagement, a near-finished portal/ramp program, multiple commercial pathways, and now a pending Traxys framework designed to potentially place all planned production under offtake for the first 10 years. That is not the profile of a speculative science project anymore — that is the profile of a future strategic industrial platform waiting for final financing and construction launch.

"All Aboard...!"

"Keepin the faith is hard at times!.... Let's Goooo Team NioCorp!"

Chico

MAXIM Forecast; Mine Portal Construction Underway; EXIM Financing DiscussionsOngoing – Reiterate Buy, $15

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a few reads with your morning brew of choice.... Quick Post!

May 18th, 2026 - Opinion: NioCorp Developments: Offtake Agreement And Potential $800 Million Financings Validate The Bull Case

Search "Seeking Alpha" for link... A good read!

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FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS AS ALWAYS

https://reddit.com/link/1thjzqq/video/ea4refdtx22h1/player

This Maxim Group research report is a massive fundamental validation of the exact timeline and structural milestones we have been mapping out. Having a reputable sell-side firm slap a $15.00 Price Target on NioCorp right now—representing immense upside from current levels—shows that Wall Street is finally calculating the math on the Traxys and EXIM catalysts.

The report contains critical data points that directly reinforce your thesis and provide an explicit look at NioCorp's financial health:

1. The Cash Position is Much Stronger Than Expected

• Massive Cash Runway: Maxim notes that NioCorp ended F3Q26 (March) with $419.2 million in unrestricted cash (plus $2.1 million restricted).
• Tiny Cash Burn: They only burned $9.0 million this quarter vs. the analyst's expectation of $26.9 million. Because they are managing their cash so conservatively while starting the mine portal, they won't even need to look at raising next-stage capital until the second half of CY26.

1. The Step-by-Step EXIM Catalyst Confirmed

Maxim's analyst explicitly maps out the exact 1-2-3 punch required to unlock the $800 million EXIM loan:

1. The Offtake (Traxys): The report reiterates that management explicitly views securing these offtake agreements as the "final step required to advance the EXIM financing approval process."
2. The Updated DFS: NioCorp is actively coordinating the release of the updated feasibility study with private lenders and the U.S. government to align the economic modeling perfectly.
3. The Binding Term Sheet: Maxim expects the binding EXIM debt term sheet to immediately follow the publication of that DFS.
4. Government Backing is Flowing In

The report notes that NioCorp received $603K in cost reimbursements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) during the quarter. This is part of their $10 million DoD grant, with another $6.2 million in deferred milestone payments waiting to be unlocked as they finalize the scandium production samples and the updated DFS. This proves the U.S. defense establishment is actively monitoring and subsidizing Elk Creek's development milestones.

4. The Valuation Methodology

To get to that $15 price target, Maxim is using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model with a 14.0% discount rate, forecasting initial commercial revenues to begin in the first half of CY30.

When a sell-side firm puts a 14% discount rate on a pre-revenue project and still arrives at $15/share, it means they believe the probability of clearing the EXIM and Traxys hurdles is exceptionally high.

Chico

May 18th, 2026~Arafura Rare Earths Inks Deal with Traxys to Supply US Critical Minerals for Defense and Tech Sectors

Arafura Rare Earths, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)

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Arafura Rare Earths, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has signed a binding offtake letter of intent with global physical rare earth trader Traxys North America to support the revival and development of domestic manufacturing in the US automotive, national defense, and advanced technology sectors. Traxys plans to supply 500 mt/year of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and 7.5 mt/year of dysprosium-terbium (DyTb) oxide from Arafura's Nolans project in Australia's Northern Territory to US enterprises, including potential supply to "Project Vault" managed by the US Export-Import Bank (Exim). The plan aims to provide a tactical buffer against critical minerals supply shocks.

May 18th, 2026~Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience Starts Upstream — Where US Policy Is Weakest

Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience Starts Upstream — Where US Policy Is Weakest | Corporate Compliance Insights

For companies with critical minerals exposure, the risk isn't just supply disruption; it's regulatory volatility in resource-producing countries

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Critical minerals supply chain risk isn’t primarily a sourcing problem, supply chain expert Kenneth Johnson argues — it’s a governance problem. As resource-rich countries increasingly seek to expand their share of value through export restrictions and local processing requirements, US companies face a compliance environment that is growing more complex and less predictable, often faster than their risk frameworks can absorb.

The US has entered a new phase of industrial policy, one defined not by market reliance but by strategic intervention.

In recent years, Washington has committed substantial public resources to rebuilding domestic capacity in sectors deemed critical to economic security and national defense. Semiconductor manufacturing, advanced batteries and defense technologies have all been prioritized through targeted legislation and institutional mandates.

The scale of this shift is significant. The CHIPS and Science Act allocates approximately $53 billion to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing and reduce reliance on external supply chains. At the same time, institutions like the US International Development Finance Corp. have expanded their role in financing critical minerals projects abroad, while the US defense sector continues to maintain strategic reserves through the national defense stockpile to mitigate supply disruptions.

These actions reflect a clear policy direction: Supply chain resilience is now a core component of national security. Yet despite this progress, a fundamental gap remains.

US policy has focused heavily on strengthening domestic industrial capacity. However, the upstream and midstream segments that feed these industries — mining, processing and refining — remain largely external and structurally misaligned with US strategic objectives.

This is not simply a sourcing issue; it is a governance problem.

The structural imbalance

The global critical minerals system is characterized by a persistent imbalance.

Resource-rich countries, many of them in Africa, produce a substantial share of the world’s critical minerals but capture a limited portion of the value associated with them. In many cases, upstream producers retain less than 10%-15% of total value, while higher-value processing, refining and manufacturing activities are concentrated elsewhere.

At the same time, downstream processing capacity for several critical minerals is often 80%-90% concentrated in a single geography, creating systemic vulnerabilities for industrial economies, including the US.

This is a structural imbalance, not merely a geological one. For US policymakers and corporate compliance leaders, the implications are clear: Exposure is not limited to supply disruption; it extends to regulatory volatility, investment uncertainty and shifting policy regimes in resource-producing countries seeking to expand domestic value capture.

Limits of current approaches

Two dominant policy approaches have emerged in response to this imbalance.

The first is resource sovereignty, where governments impose export restrictions or local processing requirements in an effort to accelerate industrialization. While grounded in legitimate development objectives, these measures often outpace domestic capacity, leading to disrupted supply chains and reduced investment.

The second is unstructured liberalization, where extraction proceeds with minimal domestic value addition. This approach supports short-term supply continuity but reinforces long-term dependency and increases the likelihood of future policy intervention.

Both models introduce risk from a US perspective, either through abrupt regulatory shifts or through the accumulation of unresolved structural tensions that eventually trigger them.

Closing the governance gap

Addressing this challenge requires a more disciplined alignment between sovereign policy, industrial capability and global supply chain integration.

A structured approach I developed is one way to address this alignment challenge. I call it proportional collaborative sovereignty, or PCS, and I believe it offers a practical execution model.

PCS is grounded in a clear operational principle: Sovereign control over mineral value chains should expand in proportion to demonstrated domestic capability. Rather than imposing immediate restrictions or maintaining open-ended extraction models, policy evolves in sequenced stages aligned with real capacity in processing, refining and manufacturing.

This sequencing reduces policy volatility while improving investment clarity, two factors that have consistently undermined both development outcomes and supply chain stability.

Equally important, the model emphasizes collaborative industrialization. Industrial capacity is developed through structured partnerships — joint ventures, co-investment and technology transfer — often at regional scale. This enables resource-rich countries to build sustainable industrial bases while maintaining integration with global markets.

The relevance of such an approach is reinforced by recent policy outcomes in multiple jurisdictions. Export restrictions implemented without sufficient domestic processing capacity have, in some cases, resulted in reduced revenues, constrained production and delayed industrial development. These outcomes highlight the risks of misalignment between policy ambition and execution capability.

Implications for US policy and compliance

For US policymakers, regulators and corporate compliance professionals, the implications are increasingly material.

First, supply chain resilience cannot be achieved through domestic investment alone. Upstream and midstream segments must be governed in ways that are predictable, investable and aligned with host country development strategies.

Second, regulatory complexity will continue to increase. US companies operating across critical minerals value chains must navigate evolving policy environments in multiple jurisdictions, particularly as resource-rich countries seek to expand domestic value addition.

Third, institutions such as the US International Development Finance Corp. will play a central role in structuring investments that align commercial viability with strategic objectives. This will require closer coordination between public and private actors, as well as a more integrated approach to risk assessment.

Finally, diversification must extend beyond sourcing. It must include partnerships, financing structures and industrial ecosystems. Overreliance on any single geography, whether upstream or downstream, introduces systemic risk that cannot be mitigated through stockpiling alone.

Conclusion

The US has taken decisive steps to rebuild domestic industrial capacity and reduce strategic vulnerabilities. However, the long-term effectiveness of these efforts will depend on how the global supply systems that underpin them are governed.

Critical minerals supply chains are inherently international. Their resilience depends on aligning the interests of producing countries, industrial economies and private sector actors within a coherent and predictable structure.

Closing this governance gap is not optional; it is central to the next phase of US industrial and national security strategy.

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May 18th, 2026~Defence groups clamour to delay US ban on Chinese rare earth magnets

Chinese rare earth magnet ban has US defence companies scrambling

Rare earth magnets are used in everything from phones to fighter jets and weapons systems. Bloomberg

The magnets go into everything from electric vehicles and phones to fighter jets and weapons systems but their production is dominated by China, which has tightened its grip by limiting access to the crucial materials. Western governments are now racing to reduce their exposure.

The Trump administration has worked at pace to inject billions of dollars into the US’s nascent rare earths industry, but China remains by far the dominant producer of rare earth elements, metals and magnets. Experts warn that building a fully developed alternative supply chain will take years.

Several US metals executives said the administration was unlikely to look on the lobbying favorably.

In a Truth Social post this month, US President Donald Trump stressed that “all Federal agencies must buy American”, adding: “To the DC Bureaucrats: NO MORE handing out Waivers like candy!”

The Pentagon declined to comment.

Trump’s supply ban

Under rules introduced by Congress in 2018 during Trump’s first term, defense companies will be banned from supplying the US military with the magnets, as well as the metals tungsten and tantalum, if they have been sourced from China. The rules apply if any stage of the materials’ production has occurred in China, North Korea, Russia or Iran.

The change would “allow the United States – not an adversary – to define when, what and how we source materials for our defense industrial base”, said Abigail Hunter, executive director of Safe’s Centre for Critical Minerals Strategy, an advocacy group.

“Now that we are facing ongoing conflict and the urgent need to replenish our weapons systems, we may need flexibility in execution – but we absolutely cannot dilute the original bipartisan policy intent,” she said.

One person familiar with the debate said defense companies were “pushing back”, arguing to Congress that they comprise a small segment of the overall magnet market, making it hard for them to influence it.

The rules are also intended to generate demand for US magnet producers to support a domestic industry that has struggled to remain viable in the face of competition from China.

A US ban on Chinese-sourced rare earth metals has sent defense companies scrambling. Bloomberg

Some magnet production exists outside China, including in Germany, South Korea and the US.

However, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies warned in April that “unless significantly more capacity comes online in the next eight months, adhering to [the 2027 deadline] may not be feasible”.

Any delay could come in this year’s National Defense Authorization Act or in the form of waivers granted by the administration.

Companies may be able to obtain waivers for non-compliant items if they can show they have made efforts to map out their supply chains, among other criteria.

“Defense companies not doing a thing for eight years and then going to Congress looking for relief is unconscionable,” said lobbyist Jeff Green, whose clients include US magnet and rare earth companies. “I don’t think they’re going to find a lot of sympathy for the lack of proactivity on the issue.”

Companies are not always aware of the provenance of each component in complex and sprawling supply chains, with some procurement done by subcontractors, experts said.

The US Government Accountability Office warned last year that more than 200,000 defense department suppliers helped produce advanced weapons systems and other equipment, but that there was “little visibility into where these goods are manufactured”.

Efforts to better understand supply chain risks were “un-coordinated and limited in scope”.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE AS ALWAYS:

Some photos from Antler on Sunday May 17th 2026 & shared on the ihub board post #129359. Thanks ANTLER!!! Wanted to share here as well. Mr. N sent me the link! .... Go check out Antler's post!

(99+) Niocorp Developments Ltd (NB): I drove by tonight. With the leaves on...

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Perhaps “The Market is still Underestimating What the Proposed Traxys–NioCorp Deal Actually Means…??”

Today’s close at roughly $5/share feels completely disconnected from the macro backdrop unfolding in real time. The U.S. government, DoD, EXIM, and allied nations are openly admitting they have a severe strategic vulnerability in rare earths, scandium, niobium, titanium, dysprosium, terbium, gallium, germanium, and magnet supply chains. Congress just expanded sourcing restrictions in the FY2026 NDAA. China’s heavy rare earth export controls remain in place. Defense contractors are now lobbying Washington because they literally cannot comply with future sourcing bans without new domestic supply. And while this is happening, NioCorp sits in Nebraska with one of the very few advanced U.S. projects capable of potentially supplying multiple critical minerals from one integrated domestic source.

At the same time, Traxys — a major global commodities player tied directly into “Project Vault” and Western critical minerals strategy — is already moving with Arafura for NdPr/DyTb supply while simultaneously working toward a much broader proposed arrangement with NioCorp. That should tell investors something important: Traxys is clearly assembling diversified non-Chinese supply chains across allied jurisdictions. Australia alone cannot solve the West’s supply problem. The U.S. still needs domestic niobium, scandium, titanium feedstock, heavy rare earths, downstream alloying, and eventually magnet materials. Elk Creek potentially checks multiple boxes at once in a way very few projects globally can.

Meanwhile, institutions continue adding shares in the $5–6 range while retail panics because the binding Traxys agreement and updated DFS have not yet dropped. Yes, management timing frustration is understandable. Mark Smith strongly telegraphed imminent completion of the legal documentation process. But delays at this stage of a project this strategic are far more likely tied to financing coordination, legal structuring, EXIM diligence, offtake integration, and final reserve/resource verification than some collapse of the underlying thesis. The portal work continues. The proven reserve conversion drilling is complete. EXIM review is active. The geopolitical need has only intensified.

And this is what many still fail to grasp: NioCorp is not merely a “rare earth junior.” Elk Creek potentially evolves into a vertically integrated U.S. strategic materials platform — mine → oxide → metal → alloy → magnet ecosystem support. Ferroniobium for steel and aerospace. Scandium oxide and eventual ScAl alloys for defense and aviation. Titanium dioxide and titanium chloride feedstock. NdPr, Dy, Tb, and potentially additional separated rare earth products for permanent magnets. Add future recycling, alloy partnerships, and domestic processing optionality, and Elk Creek starts looking less like a single mine and more like foundational national industrial infrastructure.

That’s why the disconnect at a ~$600M–$700M valuation is becoming harder to ignore. Either the market is correctly pricing a failed financing outcome… or it is dramatically underpricing what one of the only advanced multi-critical-mineral domestic projects in North America could become once financing, construction, and production visibility fully land.

My shares are not for sale! \"All aboard!\"

Had to do a follow up post for today. See what shakes out in the am!

Chico

May 18th, 2026~US-China trade breakthrough: Soybean deal, Boeing order, rare earth relief announced after Trump–Xi talks

  White House announces major US–China trade understandings after Trump–Xi meeting covering rare earth minerals, Boeing aircraft orders, and multi-billion-dollar US farm export commitments.

US-China trade breakthrough: Soybean deal, Boeing order, rare earth relief announced after Trump–Xi talks - World News | The Financial Express

The White House has announced a set of major trade understandings after a recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Officials say the talks have led to several important agreements that could strengthen trade between the two countries and support jobs, farming, and manufacturing in the United States. 

China moves to ease rare earth and mineral concerns

One of the biggest parts of the agreement is about rare earths and critical minerals, which are needed for electronics, defence systems, and modern technology.

According to the White House, China has agreed to address US concerns over shortages and supply issues involving key minerals like yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium. This also includes steps to reduce problems linked to production and processing equipment. 

US officials say this move is important because these materials are hard to replace, and any disruption can affect everything from manufacturing to national security. The aim is to make the supply more stable and predictable for American industries. 

China approves 200 Boeing aircraft order

Another major announcement is China’s approval of an initial order for 200 aircraft made by Boeing for Chinese airlines. This is the first big aircraft purchase from China since 2017. Boeing has confirmed the order and also said there could be more purchases later.

The White House said this deal is expected to support thousands of skilled jobs in the United States, especially in manufacturing and aerospace production, where Boeing plays a major role.

Big boost planned for US farm exports

Agriculture is also a major part of the agreement. China, according to the White House, has agreed to buy at least $17 billion worth of US farm products every year in 2026, 2027, and 2028, with the 2026 figure adjusted for timing. This builds on earlier commitments, especially in soybeans.

For American farmers, this means more steady demand and stronger export income over the next few years. Officials say it gives farmers more certainty after a long period of trade uncertainty. 

After a Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea last year, Washington had earlier said Beijing agreed to buy at least 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually for the next three years. This time, however, the latest statement did not mention a specific soybean quantity.

China’s Commerce Ministry also stopped short of naming soybeans directly or giving any exact numbers. Instead, Beijing said both countries had agreed to promote agricultural trade. 

US beef and poultry access restored in China

The agreements also reopen important parts of the Chinese market for US meat producers. China has renewed approvals for more than 400 US beef facilities and has also added new ones. This fully restores access for American beef exports to China. 

Along with that, poultry imports from US states that are approved by the USDA and free from bird flu have now resumed. Officials say this will help American meat producers regain a strong market that had been restricted in recent years. “China will work with U.S. regulators to lift all suspensions of U.S. beef facilities,” the White paper said.

China talks tariffs, US stays silent on duties

Both sides said they would create new trade and investment boards to improve communication and business ties between the two countries.

Still, there were clear differences in what each government chose to highlight.

China’s statement said reducing tariffs would be part of future plans between the two nations. The US readout, however, did not mention tariffs or duties.

Xi expected to visit Washington

President Xi is expected to visit the White House this fall for further high-level discussions. This visit is seen as a continuation of the recent progress and an opportunity to build on the agreements already reached. 

Markets are now watching closely to see how these agreements are carried out in the coming months, with hopes that they could bring more stability to US–China economic relations. 

A quick read with coffee as we wait for the catalysts to unfold...

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

It looks like China just reaffirmed to the world WHY critical minerals matter. Even after the Trump–Xi meetings and all the diplomatic headlines, the reality remains the same: the U.S. and allies are still dangerously dependent on China for heavy rare earths, scandium, niobium, dysprosium, terbium, and advanced magnet supply chains! The FY2026 NDAA, EXIM, DPA Title III funding, Project Vault, and billions now flowing into domestic critical mineral infrastructure are not random headlines anymore — they are the framework for an entirely new strategic industrial base.

Now look at NioCorp today sitting at roughly a $5.34–$5.46 share price while institutions continue accumulating shares in the $5–$6 range. Meanwhile, NioCorp is potentially lining up: (1) a binding Traxys offtake covering essentially all planned production for 10 years, (2) a possible $30M strategic anchor investment, (3) a pending 2026 DFS that could materially expand TREO, mine life, and magnetic REE outputs, (4) a potential EXIM FID pathway by mid-2026, (5) transition directly from portal development into full construction by Sept. 2026, and (6) downstream vertical integration pathways through scandium alloys, titanium products, magnet recycling, and future defense supply chain manufacturing.

That’s the part most people are missing. NioCorp isn’t just trying to build a mine anymore. It is potentially positioning itself as a multi-decade U.S. strategic materials platform tied directly into aerospace, defense, magnets, semiconductors, alloys, and national security supply chains. Mark Smith has repeatedly called Elk Creek a “national strategic asset,” and honestly, the macro backdrop is now starting to prove why.

So why hasn’t the stock exploded yet? Probably because markets still want final signatures and hard proof: the signed Traxys agreement, the DFS, the finalized financing stack, and EXIM FID. Until those arrive, large funds can still accumulate shares relatively quietly while uncertainty remains. But once those pieces lock together, the valuation framework changes from “speculative junior miner” to “strategic U.S. critical minerals infrastructure asset.” And that rerating can happen fast.

The six pathways now appear clearer than ever: niobium, scandium, titanium/TiCl4, magnetic rare earths, scandium-aluminum alloys, and future magnet recycling/separation. Very few Western projects can even claim one or two of those pathways. Elk Creek potentially brings all six together in one fully integrated domestic platform — exactly as Washington is now scrambling to build.

The question is no longer whether the U.S. needs projects like Elk Creek. The real question may soon become: what is the strategic valuation of one of the only advanced domestic projects capable of supplying all of them at once?

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

People also keep forgetting just how many critical materials are sitting inside Elk Creek under one roof. This is not a one-metal story. Elk Creek is expected to produce niobium for superalloys and defense steel, scandium for next-generation ScAl aerospace alloys, titanium dioxide and titanium tetrachloride for pigments, aerospace metals and industrial applications, plus magnetic rare earths including neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, & potentially even samarium, gadolinium. Delivering many of separated REEs essential for permanent magnets, EVs, robotics, drones, wind turbines, semiconductors, missiles, radar systems and advanced defense platforms. Add in the possibility of future magnet recycling and downstream alloy production, and the project starts looking less like a traditional mining company and more like the foundation of a vertically integrated U.S. strategic materials ecosystem.

America needs secure domestic critical mineral supply NOW. That is why institutions have been quietly accumulating shares in the $5–6 range while retail investors stare at short-term delays and daily price swings.

Now step back and look at the macro picture. China still dominates global rare earth processing and continues to weaponize supply chains through export controls and licensing restrictions. Meanwhile the FY2026 NDAA, DPA funding, EXIM initiatives, Project Vault, defense sourcing mandates, and billions in federal industrial policy are all screaming the same message: America needs secure domestic critical mineral supply NOW.

That is why institutions have been quietly accumulating shares in the $5–6 range while retail investors stare at short-term delays and daily price swings. The market may still be valuing NioCorp like a speculative junior miner today, but if financing lands, the DFS confirms expanded resources and mine life, and Elk Creek moves into construction, the asset could eventually be viewed as one of the most strategically important critical mineral projects in the Western Hemisphere.

Staying tuned! "All Aboard!"...

Chico

May 16th, 2026- China’s Rare Earth Controls Persist Despite Talks, Customs Data Shows

China’s Rare Earth Controls Persist Despite Talks, Customs Data Shows

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China’s export restrictions on heavy rare earth elements remain in effect more than a year after they were imposed, according to trade data and industry reports, despite diplomatic efforts to reach a resolution.

Shipments of key materials including yttrium, dysprosium and terbium have declined by roughly half compared to pre-control levels, data from customs agencies show. The controls, announced in April 2025 as retaliation for U.S. tariffs, have not been lifted, and Beijing has shown no indication of rolling them back.

Background of the Restrictions

The restrictions target a group of heavy rare earths that are essential for advanced defense systems, aerospace components, electric vehicle motors and wind turbines. China's Ministry of Commerce has stated that export applications are being reviewed and approved for eligible buyers.

However, analysts say selective licensing allows Beijing to maintain leverage over strategically sensitive supply chains. China controls about 80% of global rare earth processing, according to industry estimates. ^([1])

The move, announced in April 2025, was described by Chinese officials as retaliation for U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes. The action covers seven critical rare earth elements vital for defense and technology sectors. ^([2]) The U.S. Department of War has assessed that Washington's reliance on Chinese rare earth processing represents a national security risk, a view echoed by authors who note that the U.S. military depends on rare earths for navigation systems, guidance systems, radios and computers. ^([3])

Divergence From White House Statements

The persistence of the controls contradicts expectations set during earlier diplomatic engagements. Following a summit in late 2024, the White House indicated that China had agreed to effectively eliminate its export restrictions on rare earths.

A senior U.S. official confirmed in May 2026 that a rare earths deal between the two countries remains in effect, but acknowledged that an extension would be announced at an appropriate time. ^([4]) However, the April 2025 controls were imposed shortly after that summit and remain in force, with no evidence of removal in customs records.

U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have confirmed ongoing shortages affecting American manufacturers. The disconnect between diplomatic statements and on-the-ground data has frustrated industry executives.

Analysts cited by Reuters say the selective enforcement allows China to comply with the letter of agreements while preserving its strategic chokehold on supply chains. The U.S. military may have as little as two months of rare earth inventories remaining, according to intelligence and industry sources cited in a March 2026 report. ^([5])

Global Supply Disruptions and Price Surges

Prices for key rare earths have surged dramatically since the controls took effect. The cost of yttrium increased 69-fold within a year, according to a February 2026 report, halting some aerospace production lines. ^([6]) Price data from commodity pricing agencies shows that dysprosium and terbium have risen four to five times their pre-control levels, while yttrium has increased more than 140 times, according to Argus Media.

Aerospace firms have paused production due to yttrium shortages, and the U.S. government intervened to secure supplies for a major industrial group, officials said. In a 2022 interview, defense industry expert David Dubyne stated that "military F-35 fighter jets have been put on hold because they can't get a key rare earth element from China for their magnets." ^([7])

The restrictions have also disrupted semiconductor manufacturing, with chipmakers facing dangerous shortages of scandium, threatening 5G technology development. ^([6]) Japan received only a fraction of its previous dysprosium imports, and Germany received no shipments at all, according to customs data from those countries.

Diversification Efforts and Outlook

In response, the United States, Japan Germany and other G7 nations are accelerating efforts to develop alternative mining, refining and magnet production capacity. Australia's Lynas Rare Earths has begun producing heavy rare earths at its Malaysian plant, breaking China's monopoly on the rarest elements. ^([8]) USA Rare Earth announced a $2.8 billion acquisition of Brazil’s Serra Verde Group to expand Western supply chains. ^([9])

Japan and the U.S. have forged an alliance to mine underwater rare earth deposits near Minamitorishima Island, containing an estimated 16 million tons of rare earth oxides. ^([10]) The U.S. has also signed four major trade agreements with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam at the Association of South East Asian Nations summit to secure critical mineral supplies. ^([11])

But analysts say meaningful alternatives remain years away. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent described China’s export curbs as a “real mistake” that triggered a rapid Western shift toward domestic production and alternative suppliers. ^([12]) The long-term solutions are underway, but near-term supply constraints are expected to persist, with some industry experts warning that the situation will deteriorate before improvements materialize.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank's proposed $12 billion project to stockpile critical minerals would initially source supplies from China itself, highlighting the difficulty of decoupling. ^([13]) Robert Bryce, author of "Power Hungry," wrote that "the availability of rare earths is not just about balance of trade; it's also about national security," underscoring the stakes of the ongoing dependency. ^([3])

Conclusion

The continuation of export controls underscores the deep dependency of Western economies on Chinese rare earth supplies. While new projects are in development, the immediate outlook for manufacturers remains constrained.

The situation highlights the strategic vulnerability of supply chains that took decades to concentrate in a single country. As the U.S. and its allies pursue diversification, the effectiveness of these efforts will determine whether the current supply crisis becomes a permanent structural weakness.

A few reads with Iced coffee as we wait for a completed TRAXYS DEAL & DFS...

MAY 2026- Critical Minerals and Domestic Sourcing Mandates What State and Local Officials Need to Know About the Push to Bring Defense Supply Chains Home

Defense Maunfacturing Brief: Critical Minerals and Domestic Sourcing Mandates

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FORM YOUR OWN OPINIOINS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

🚨 America Has Entered the Critical Minerals War — And NioCorp May Be Sitting at the Center of It

IMHO: ~The market still seems to think NB is “just another mining developer.” Meanwhile, the actual geopolitical backdrop has completely changed. The FY2026 NDAA now expands sourcing restrictions on critical minerals tied to defense systems, while the U.S. government is pouring billions into domestic supply chains through EXIM, DPA Title III, the Defense Industrial Base Fund, and direct strategic investments. Gallium, germanium, dysprosium, terbium, scandium, niobium, rare earth magnets — these are no longer niche commodities. ***They are now viewed as national security infrastructure! China still controls most global rare earth processing and continues restricting heavy REE exports, while prices for key defense materials have exploded higher. The U.S. government is openly telling industry: build domestic supply NOW.

That is why the setup around NioCorp has become so interesting. While the stock trades near $6, the company now has multiple converging pathways emerging at the same time: EXIM-backed project financing, the pending binding Traxys offtake package, ThyssenKrupp ferroniobium agreements, DoD scandium initiatives, Lockheed-linked ScAl alloy development, possible Title III support pathways, and the ongoing Elk Creek buildout. The portal project has already started, infill drilling is complete, technical work has been submitted to EXIM, and Mark Smith has openly stated EXIM activity is moving faster than at any point in the past 2.5 years. This is no longer a story about “if the ore exists.” It is increasingly about whether the U.S. wants a fully domestic niobium-scandium-heavy rare earth supply chain before China tightens the screws even further.

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

At the same time, the market is beginning to realize that Elk Creek may not simply be a niobium/scandium mine anymore. The pending DFS is expected to update reserve classifications, potentially expand TREO visibility, and further define heavy magnetic rare earth potential including dysprosium and terbium — the exact materials now under intense strategic pressure globally. Meanwhile, neighboring explorer APXCF continues hitting impressive REE intercepts at the Rift Project directly adjacent to Elk Creek, including high-grade zones and unusually strong NdPr enrichment. That discovery is reinforcing the idea that southeastern Nebraska could evolve into a much larger strategic critical minerals district over time.

The irony is that the market continues rewarding early-stage discovery stories while heavily discounting advanced-stage financing stories. Apex can rally aggressively on drill results because investors are pricing possibility. NioCorp, on the other hand, is being forced through the hardest phase in mining development: proving financing, offtakes, construction sequencing, and execution capability. But "WHEN" the binding Traxys agreement lands, followed by a materially upgraded DFS and visible EXIM/FID progress, the narrative could shift violently. At that point, institutions may no longer view NioCorp as a speculative junior — but as a strategic U.S. industrial asset with government-aligned financing and long-term defense relevance.

And quietly, institutions already appear to be positioning. Major 13F filings (as others have shared), reported BlackRock ownership exceeding 5%, hedge fund accumulation, and increased institutional participation in the $5–6 range suggest sophisticated capital may already be front-running the derisking cycle. That matters because once financing visibility becomes real, many larger funds that currently cannot touch pre-production developers suddenly become eligible buyers. Markets often wait until uncertainty collapses — then reprice assets far faster than retail expects.

Bottom line: the next major catalysts are now stacked directly in front of the company — signed Traxys agreements, potential anchor investment participation, the final DFS update, EXIM/FID developments, continued DoD/ScAl progress, and ultimately the transition from portal construction into full-scale mine construction. In a world where the U.S. government is openly warning that critical mineral dependence on China is a national security threat, assets capable of supplying niobium, scandium, titanium, magnetic rare earths, and future downstream alloys are no longer being viewed through a traditional mining lens. The question the market may soon have to answer is simple: what is the strategic value of one of the only advanced domestic projects capable of supplying all of them at once?

BlackRock, hedge funds, and other major players are not accumulating millions of shares because they think this is “just another junior miner.” They see the same convergence retail is starting to connect: EXIM momentum, Traxys offtakes, DoD scandium initiatives, Lockheed-linked ScAl development, heavy REE potential, and one of the only advanced U.S. projects capable of producing niobium, scandium, titanium, and magnetic rare earths under one roof. \"ALL ABOARD! 🚂 \"

Mark Smith has stated repeatedly Elk Creek is not just a mine — it is a NATIONAL STRATEGIC ASSET. Now the rest of the market is finally starting to understand why. As the U.S. government pours billions into reshoring critical minerals, locks in sourcing mandates through the FY2026 NDAA, and races to break China’s grip on rare earths and defense metals, institutions are quietly building positions in NioCorp right here in the $5–6 range.

BlackRock, hedge funds, and other major players are not accumulating millions of shares because they think this is “just another junior miner.” They see the same convergence retail is starting to connect: EXIM momentum, Traxys offtakes, DoD scandium initiatives, Lockheed-linked ScAl development, heavy REE potential, and one of the only advanced U.S. projects capable of producing niobium, scandium, titanium, and magnetic rare earths under one roof. The portal is being built. The financing pieces are aligning. The strategic urgency is real. At some point the market stops valuing Elk Creek as a speculative story — and starts valuing it as critical national infrastructure.

"ALL ABOARD!! 🚂" Staying tuned with many!.... Let's GOooooo NioCorp!

Chico

U.S. NAVY SHIPBUILDING PLAN MAY 2026

NAVY SHIPBUILDING PLAN MAY 2026.PDF

A GREAT READ WITH COFFEE...

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Enjoy the read!

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

https://reddit.com/link/1tdtw9o/video/o76drsesfa1h1/player

🔥 THE NAVY JUST TELEGRAPHED ITS FUTURE — AND IBC IS QUIETLY SITTING IN THE PERFECT STRIKE ZONE 🔥

The Navy’s 2026 shipbuilding plan is basically a blueprint for the kind of industrial base the U.S. now must build — distributed manufacturing, advanced alloys, precision cast components, lightweight structures, and a massive expansion of qualified suppliers.

That’s exactly the world IBC already operates in. They’ve supplied Lockheed with Beralcast® components for the F‑35 EOTS, delivered tooling for the Sniper ATP, and built a reputation for precision castings and high‑modulus alloys that fit perfectly into the Navy’s push for lighter, stronger, more modular systems. When the Navy says it wants to move from 10% distributed manufacturing to 50%, that’s not a hint — that’s a direct call for companies like IBC to step up.

What makes this even more interesting is the timing. Lockheed’s Sniper NTP pod just evolved into a networked battlespace node, the Pentagon is funding Sc‑Al prototype components through Skunk Works, VALIMET is building a Mine‑to‑Prime Sc‑Al powder chain, and Congress inserted “Aluminum‑Scandium Prototype Parts Development & Demonstration” into the FY26 NDAA. Then everything went quiet. That’s exactly what happens when programs shift from public‑facing to classified integration.

****And companies like IBC — the ones who actually cast, machine, and qualify the parts — tend to go silent because they’re working, not talking!!****Add in Chris Huskamp returning to IBC’s board — a metallurgist with scandium‑alloy patents and deep aerospace experience — and the picture gets even more compelling.

Now, on the NioCorp side, yes — the DFS delays and Traxys timing have been frustrating. But to be fair, NioCorp is juggling a six‑metal portfolio — niobium, titanium, TiCl₄, scandium, heavy REEs (Tb/Dy), and Nd/Pr — and those markets are volatile, highly regulated, and deeply tied to DoD procurement cycles. It’s not crazy that timelines shift when pricing decks, financing structures, and federal programs are moving targets. And to their credit, NioCorp has positioned itself as a future domestic supplier for multiple defense‑critical materials — something the Navy, DoD, and Congress are all pushing hard for.

From an IBC perspective, though, the real story is how the Navy is demanding new suppliers, new alloys, new manufacturing capacity, and new industrial‑base entrants. IBC is one of the few U.S. companies that can deliver precision castings, advanced alloys, scandium‑bearing materials, and aerospace‑qualified components at the scale the Navy is moving toward. The Navy wants lighter, stronger, corrosion‑resistant structures for unmanned systems, sensors, masts, pods, and modular ship sections — and IBC already makes those kinds of parts. The silence across Lockheed, NioCorp, VALIMET, and IBC isn’t a red flag — it’s the sound of the defense industrial base shifting into a new gear.

So while NioCorp works through its DFS and Traxys milestones — and yes, they need to land those — the broader ecosystem is clearly aligning. The Navy wants distributed manufacturing. Lockheed wants advanced alloys. The Pentagon wants domestic supply chains. Congress wants Sc‑Al prototypes. And IBC is sitting right at the intersection of materials, manufacturing, and defense qualification. When the curtain finally lifts, IBC may be one of the few players already standing in the right place, with the right capabilities, at exactly the right moment.

\"Don't miss the boat!...\"

At the end of the day, this is where we stand on May 15, 2026: the Navy is rebuilding the entire industrial base, Lockheed is modernizing its targeting and sensor architecture, the Pentagon is pushing domestic alloys and distributed manufacturing, and IBC is sitting right in the middle of that shift with its debt runway cleared and its capabilities aligned with exactly what the DoD is asking for!

NioCorp still has key milestones ahead — Traxys, DFS, & EXIM FID $$, but when those pieces finally lock in, the upstream feedstock and the downstream manufacturing capacity snap together into a supply chain the U.S. has been trying to rebuild for a decade. Today isn’t the finish line — it’s the setup. And when this thing finally moves, it’s going to move fast.

Chico

May 12th, 2026~Project Vault: How the US Plans to Secure 60

Project Vault: How the US Plans to Secure 60 | Skillings

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The United States just announced a mineral stockpile larger than anything attempted since the Cold War. Not as a military exercise. As an industrial insurance policy.

Project Vault, unveiled February 2, 2026, commits $12 billion to warehousing all 60 commodities on the U.S. Geological Survey’s critical minerals list. The objective isn’t subtle: eliminate the leverage that China and other suppliers hold over American manufacturing. And it’s structured as something Washington rarely attempts: a public-private partnership that actually asks companies to put money where their supply chain anxieties live.

This isn’t a stockpile for decoration. It’s a hedge against the kind of disruption that already shut down Ford Explorer production in 2025 when rare earths dried up. That wasn’t a defense project. That was a civilian SUV line going dark because one input disappeared.

Welcome to the new playbook for commodity security.

How Project Vault Actually Works

The mechanics matter more than the headline number. This isn’t the government hoarding minerals in a bunker and hoping someone eventually needs them.

Manufacturers submit requests specifying exactly which minerals they need and in what quantities. Project Vault acquires those materials and stores them in secure facilities across the country. Companies then commit to two binding requirements: purchase those minerals at a fixed price set when they enrolled, and cover upfront storage costs plus loan interest.

The structure shifts long-term price risk away from individual balance sheets and onto a centralized, government-backed mechanism. A mid-sized manufacturer can’t afford to warehouse two years of gallium or germanium on spec. But pooled through Project Vault, that becomes feasible.

The $12 billion comes from two sources: $10 billion in Export-Import Bank financing: EXIM’s largest commitment in its 92-year history: and nearly $2 billion in private capital. Three commodity trading houses handle procurement and supply: Mercuria Energy Group, Hartree Partners, and Traxys North America. They’re not consultants. They’re buying and moving the physical material.

Major manufacturers have already signaled participation. GE Vernova, Clarios, and Boeing aren’t just expressing support. They’re preparing to lock in tonnage. When an aerospace giant and a battery manufacturer both show up, you know the exposure is real.

Why 2026 Is the Inflection Point

Ford’s 2025 shutdown wasn’t an anomaly. It was a preview.

The Explorer halt exposed what happens when a single rare earth element becomes unavailable. Production stopped. Not slowed: stopped. The supply chain didn’t have redundancy because there wasn’t economic justification to build it. One supplier controlled the input. When that supplier tightened allocation, the line went dark.

That’s the civilian case. Defense procurement faces identical vulnerabilities, but with fewer alternative suppliers and longer qualification timelines. When President Trump compared Project Vault to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the parallel was deliberate. Oil shocks threatened economic stability in the 1970s. Mineral shocks threaten it now.

The 60 commodities on the USGS critical minerals list aren’t exotic curiosities. They’re inputs for batteries, semiconductors, permanent magnets, defense systems, renewable energy infrastructure, and telecommunications hardware. Lithium, cobalt, rare earths, graphite, manganese, nickel: these aren’t substitutable at scale. You can’t engineer around a shortage when the chemistry requires a specific element.

China controls processing capacity for most of these materials, even when ore originates elsewhere. Approximately 80% of rare earth refining happens in China. Nearly 70% of cobalt processing. Over 60% of lithium refining. Those aren’t market positions. Those are chokepoints.

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The Direct Impact on North American Miners

Project Vault changes the calculus for domestic and allied producers immediately.

Lundin Mining, with significant copper and zinc operations in the Americas, now faces a buyer with committed offtake and fixed pricing. That de-risks expansion projects and makes marginal deposits economically viable. When a government-backed stockpile offers to purchase at a locked price, project finance becomes substantially easier. Banks like certainty. Project Vault sells certainty.

Hecla Mining, one of the largest U.S. silver producers with growing base and critical metals exposure, benefits from similar dynamics. The company’s Lucky Friday Mine in Idaho and its polymetallic operations produce several commodities that fall under Project Vault’s mandate. Guaranteed offtake at known pricing eliminates the single biggest barrier to mine development: demand uncertainty.

But there’s a more significant strategic shift. Project Vault doesn’t just create a buyer. It validates a new pricing framework. When manufacturers commit to fixed prices through the stockpile, they’re establishing a floor. That floor becomes the baseline for negotiating with other suppliers. Producers outside the U.S. who want to maintain market share suddenly face competition from a non-commercial buyer willing to hold inventory indefinitely.

The timing intersects with a broader investment cycle. North American mining projects have struggled to attract capital despite rising commodity prices because investors fear demand destruction or substitution. Project Vault eliminates that variable for 60 specific materials. The U.S. government just became the demand backstop.

The China Calculation Nobody Wants to Discuss

Project Vault will initially source materials from China. It has to.

When alternative processing capacity doesn’t exist at commercial scale, there’s no other option. The stockpile can’t wait for new refineries to come online. It needs to start accumulating immediately because the supply vulnerabilities exist right now.

The irony is unavoidable. The program designed to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains will, in its first phase, send billions to Chinese processors. But the strategic logic holds: having a six-month or twelve-month buffer of Chinese-sourced material provides runway to develop alternatives. Without that buffer, any disruption creates immediate shortages.

Project Vault operates alongside complementary initiatives designed to accelerate that transition. The Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE) aims to create preferential trading relationships with allies. Bilateral pricing agreements with Canada, Australia, and select South American nations use price floors rather than tariffs to incentivize domestic refining investment.

The three-commodity firms managing procurement: Mercuria, Hartree, Traxys: specialize in navigating exactly this kind of geographically fragmented supply chain. They don’t have political constraints. They source wherever the material exists at the required purity and price. Over time, as North American and allied capacity grows, sourcing shifts. But that’s a five-year process, not a six-month one.

China understands the threat. Export controls on gallium and germanium implemented in 2023 and tightened through 2025 were direct responses to Western efforts to build independent supply chains. Those controls created the regional price spreads that now define critical minerals markets: a topic we’ve covered extensively regarding their impact on mining finance teams.

What This Means for Resource Nationalism

Project Vault accelerates a trend already reshaping global mining: governments treating commodity access as a national security issue rather than a trade question.

Every major economy is implementing some version of strategic reserves, export licensing, or forced localization. Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act. Japan’s stockpiling programs. Australia’s supply chain resilience initiatives. These aren’t coordinated policies. They’re parallel responses to the same vulnerability.

For mining companies, this creates both opportunity and complication. Opportunity because governments are now willing to underwrite projects that private capital wouldn’t touch. Complication because navigating resource nationalism now requires political risk assessment at every stage.

Project Vault’s public-private structure offers a template that other nations will study. The U.S. isn’t nationalizing mines. It’s not imposing export bans. It’s creating a mechanism where private manufacturers share costs and government provides scale. That’s politically palatable in a way that direct state ownership isn’t.

The $12 billion price tag sounds enormous until you contextualize it. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds roughly 400 million barrels valued at approximately $30 billion at current prices. Critical minerals don’t require that volume because their value-per-ton is substantially higher. Sixty commodities stored at commercially relevant quantities costs less than crude oil precisely because you need less physical material to achieve strategic impact.

The 180-Day Timeline and What Comes Next

Project Vault’s announcement included a 180-day enrollment window for manufacturers. That’s not arbitrary. It’s designed to force decisions before companies can wait to see how markets develop.

The first tranche of purchases will reveal which commodities face the deepest supply anxiety. If lithium and rare earth requests dominate, that signals where manufacturers see the greatest risk. If the requests spread evenly across all 60 materials, it suggests broader systemic concern rather than commodity-specific shortages.

Commodity traders are watching enrollment closely. Fixed-price commitments from major manufacturers will influence spot markets immediately. If Boeing locks in ten years of titanium at a set price, spot titanium suddenly has a floor. Producers know there’s a buyer of last resort.

The three firms managing procurement: Mercuria, Hartree, Traxys: will begin acquiring material in Q2 2026. They’re not waiting for policy clarity or international coordination. They’re executing now, which means prices for several critical commodities will face upward pressure from a large, non-commercial buyer entering the market.

For mining operators and investors, Project Vault represents the clearest signal yet that commodity security has moved from theoretical concern to funded priority. When the U.S. government commits $12 billion with EXIM’s full backing, that’s not a pilot program. That’s infrastructure.

The stockpile won’t eliminate supply chain vulnerabilities overnight. Refining capacity takes years to build. Mining projects require a decade from discovery to production. But it creates the breathing room needed to make those investments without gambling on sustained high prices or uninterrupted access to existing suppliers.

That’s the real strategic value. Not the material sitting in warehouses. The optionality it provides to build alternatives without immediate economic pressure. You can’t disrupt geology or metallurgy. But you can buy time. Project Vault just purchased approximately 18 to 24 months of it.

The question isn’t whether other nations will follow this model. Several already are. The question is whether the model proves effective before the next supply shock tests it. Ford’s Explorer line going dark was expensive but manageable. The next disruption might not be.

A FEW READS WITH COFFEE...

May 11th, 2026~Rare earths get bulk of Trump’s ‘uneven’ $18.6B funding despite small role

Rare earths get bulk of Trump's 'uneven' $18.6B funding despite small role - MINING.COM

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Despite the Trump administration investing around $18.6 billion into critical mineral projects, the investment push is lopsided, with the rare earth supply chain receiving far more funding than other metals, BMO Global Commodities Research says in a new report.

The Trump government’s roughly $18.6 billion in committed and uncommitted funding breaks down into about $15.9 billion in loans, $2.1 billion in equity investments and $615 million in grants across 60 instances of project financing, BMO analysts George Heppel and Max Yerrill said in a note on Monday about their report.

This funding has come through new legislative avenues such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and existing sources like the US Export Import Bank (EXIM), the United States’ International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the CHIPS Act.

‘Great financial pivot’

“The great US finance machine has pivoted into critical minerals,” the analysts said. “Never before in the USA’s history have we seen a mobilization of capital and policy in support of critical mineral supply at the scale of what has been achieved in the past two years. But [it] has only been partially distributed so far.”

The US government’s work to develop critical mineral – and especially rare earths – supply chains outside China’s control reflects efforts to catch up with Beijing’s significant lead. The country’s state-led investment into rare earths dates back to 1964 and by the 1980s, Chinese chemists had developed methods to affordably separate rare earths into their individual elements, an expensive and complex process that most Western companies are still trying to master.

Despite rare earths’ strategic significance for defence applications, they continue to attract outsized government funding even though their market value is relatively small. The total volume of the elements bought worldwide in 2024 was just $3.5 billion, compared with more than $300 billion for copper, $20 to $35 billion for lithium and $10 to $15 billion for uranium, according to figures from Reuters and the US Geological Survey.

Vast sums for rare earths

US rare earth developers and explorers have significantly benefitted from government investment, a standout example being private Brazilian miner Serra Verde which the DFC backed with a $565 million funding package in February. USA Rare Earth’s (Nasdaq: USAR) $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde is expected to close in the third quarter. Last summer, the Department of Defense (DoD) invested $400 million in MP Materials (NYSE: MP), the sole rare earths miner in North America, making the DoD the largest shareholder in the company.

The BMO analysts note that graphite projects have also been tapped for sizeable investments, such as Graphite One (TSXV: GPH), which might receive about $2.1 billion from EXIM. Most of the loan would go towards a planned graphite anode plant in Ohio and the rest for its Graphite Creek project in Alaska. 

Unbalanced funding

The authors estimate that the potential funding available to the Trump administration amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars, yet they note other critical metal projects such as for tungsten, antimony, nickel, cobalt and others are underinvested.

The world’s supply of tungsten is mostly controlled by China. The hard, dense metal is used mainly for cemented carbides for cutting and drilling tools, as well as in alloys for aerospace, electronics and military applications like armour-piercing ammunition.

Tungsten projects have received funding, though it pales in comparison to the sums advanced for rare earths projects. Fireweed Metals’ (TSXV: FWZ) Mactung project in Yukon – said to be one of the world’s largest undeveloped tungsten deposits – has received about $15.8 million from the US Department of Defense. That department also backed Northcliff Resources’ (TSX: NCF) Sisson tungsten-molybdenum project in New Brunswick with $15 million.

Considering its value, government investment in tungsten is “concentrated and underweight” and antimony, nickel, cobalt, tantalum, and tin have received “very little funding relative to their importance,” the BMO analysts say.

March 2026~The US’s Critical Mineral Offensive Strategy How Can Europe Step Up?

The US’s Critical Mineral Offensive Strategy: How Can Europe Step Up?

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FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

EXIM is already processing NioCorp's $800M loan.... \"let that sink in!\" ***MEANWHILE- NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

Opinion: Project Vault is beginning to reveal just how strategically important Elk Creek could become. The U.S. is now committing $12 BILLION toward securing all 60 critical minerals through a government-backed stockpile system supported by EXIM financing, major manufacturers like Boeing, and commodity powerhouses including Traxys itself. That matters because Traxys is already embedded directly into the emerging U.S. critical minerals supply chain architecture — and NioCorp’s pending deal with Traxys suddenly looks even more significant in that context.

At the same time, NioCorp continues advancing Elk Creek with ongoing underground portal construction, a pending DFS expected now through June, and a potential EXIM FID pathway still targeted around mid-2026. The bigger picture is becoming harder to ignore: America is openly scrambling to secure domestic supply for niobium, scandium, titanium, magnetic rare earths, advanced alloys, and defense-critical materials as China tightens control over global processing and supply chains.

If the Traxys agreement closes alongside a strong DFS, Elk Creek may check nearly every remaining box lenders and government agencies want to see: secure products, commercial distribution, advanced engineering, scalable separation flowsheets, strategic relevance, and long-life domestic supply. At ~$6/share, the disconnect between NioCorp’s current valuation and the growing national urgency surrounding critical minerals continues to look increasingly difficult to justify.

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

As Trump heads into talks with Xi this week, one issue will sit at the center of the table whether publicly stated or not: critical minerals and America’s dangerous dependence on foreign supply chains. That’s exactly why Elk Creek stands out.

NioCorp isn’t just talking about mining ore — the company is advancing a fully integrated U.S.-based strategy spanning mining, processing, oxides, alloys, ScAl applications, rare earth pathways, and future magnet recycling potential, all while portal ramp construction continues toward completion around September 2026. Add in the pending Traxys deal, imminent DFS, potential EXIM pathway, and growing national urgency around defense materials, and it becomes harder to view Elk Creek as simply another junior mining project.

At roughly a ~$6 share price, the market still appears to be valuing NioCorp like a speculative developer while the geopolitical landscape increasingly points to Elk Creek becoming exactly what Mark Smith has long suggested: a true National Strategic Asset hiding in plain sight.

Staying tuned with many.... waiting for more material news as it becomes available....

"All aboard!..."

Chico

May 8th, 2026~Here’s what’s at risk if the Pentagon’s $350B reconciliation gambit fails

Here’s what’s at risk if the Pentagon’s $350B reconciliation gambit fails - Breaking Defense

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WASHINGTON — Recent Congressional moves on reconciliation have pushed the Pentagon’s $350 billion request indefinitely down the road, and raise the specter that a major part of the department’s funding plan — vital to ramping up munitions production and the Golden Dome missile shield — might not materialize. 

Before leaving Capitol Hill last Friday, the Senate and House passed a budget resolution that sets up a second reconciliation bill, with about $72 billion in funding for immigration enforcement and the White House ballroom.

As a result, additional funding for defense is being left on the table for a potential third round of reconciliation, and it’s unclear when Congress plans to get the ball rolling.

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., told reporters last week that reconciliation funds for defense might not be passed by Congress until after midterm elections.

“I am quite hopeful that it will indeed be enacted sometime in November,” he said — news unlikely to be greeted with enthusiasm by either defense hawks or industry, who were hoping defense funds would be quickly dispersed through reconciliation, which can move faster than the base budget process. 

However, Wicker’s comments come amidst a growing sense of unease around whether a defense-focused reconciliation bill will be able to survive Congress, where the narrow majority in the House makes things difficult. 

Asked by Breaking Defense this week how he views reconciliation’s chances of passing, Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee’s cyber panel, said “I just don’t know” and conceded that “I am a little worried about it.” 

Part of the challenge, Bacon said, is that although he supports the funding in reconciliation, he isn’t sure it will make it through Congress due to the “anti-defense” leanings of some House Freedom Caucus members.

“It would be better if we did this through the budget process, because you get more support,” he said. “If you say, ‘We don’t want Democrat support,’ It creates a long-term problem.”

Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., who chairs the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, has also voiced frustrations with reconciliation spending, although he has not gone so far as to say he would vote against a third reconciliation bill.

“If these programs are as critical as the budget request suggests — and I believe they are —then they deserve all the full scrutiny and sustained attention that we on the appropriations process provides,” he said during a hearing last week with Air Force and Space Force leaders. “I would urge the department to work with us to bring these programs into the discretionary budget where they belong.”

Additionally, The Hill recently reported opposition to a third round of reconciliation amid Senate Republicans, citing two unnamed GOP senators who indicated that senior Republican appropriators have been leading the charge against a third bill. 

The Office of Management and Budget has characterized its use of reconciliation as a pragmatic gambit necessary to grow spending for Trump administration priorities without having to cede funds for Democrat-backed initiatives.

When figuring out which defense accounts to fund through reconciliation — as opposed to the base budget — the Pentagon considered three criteria, Jules Hurst, who is performing the duties of the Pentagon’s comptroller, said during a briefing last month.

“If we use mandatory spending, number one, we have some more flexibility on when we obligate those funds. Number two, we did it for things that were kind of a one-time plus up,” he said. Finally, he added, the Pentagon opted to seek reconciliation funding in cases where “there’s technology that’s changing quickly, like for Golden Dome or for the DAWG [Defense Autonomous Warfare Group].”

If reconciliation falters, Hurst has said the Pentagon will seek other avenues to obtain the $350 billion,

“We wouldn’t ask for the money if we didn’t want it,” he said. “So, we’ll go back to the White House, and we’ll work with Congress to come up with a new strategy if the White House and Congress decide reconciliation is not the right vehicle.”

When asked how Congress could fund the $1.5 trillion defense budget if reconciliation fails, Wicker provided few specifics.

“It’s an exercise we’ll have to go through and it’s a matter of bringing the public along, having a national conversation about the important programs and expenditures that that [legislation] would include,” he said.

Skeptical lawmakers will have their chance to question Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about the Pentagon’s fiscal 2027 budget strategy on Tuesday, when he and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine appear before House and Senate appropriators in a marathon series of hearings.

Here are the highlights of what could be left on the table if reconciliation funds don’t materialize:

Defense Industrial Base

Money to shore up the defense industrial base makes up about $113 billion, or roughly a third of the department’s reconciliation request, according to a Pentagon overview of FY27 mandatory spending.

The funding is largely divided into four buckets. The largest beneficiary is Pentagon investments in critical minerals, which stands to receive $48.7 billion, with various lines of effort that include “expanding capabilities and capacities” for critical minerals and rare earth elements, as well as “strengthening mining, processing, metallization, and recycling capabilities.” It also includes funds to purchase critical minerals for the National Defense Stockpile, to help mitigate supply risks.

Almost $23.6 billion is slated to go toward purchases made under the Defense Production Act, which the department is using to fund contracts and loans for key industrial capabilities buried within the supply chain — such as castings and forgings, microelectronics, chemicals and battery components.

The Office of Strategic Capital’s loan program would receive $20 billion to provide “debt financing for strategic investments in companies and projects to build industrial base capacity and capabilities that are essential to national defense, address economic chokepoints that threaten key supply chains, and support development of critical technologies,” the Pentagon said in the overview document.

Finally, $16.3 billion would go toward the Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment program, which is prioritizing investments to missile and solid rocket motor components deemed necessary to ramp up priority munitions identified by the Munitions Acceleration Council.

“These investments are purpose-built to reduce unit costs, expand and sustain surge capacity, and accelerate the qualification and fielding of integrated missile and SRM capabilities required to meet current and emerging operational demands,” the department’s overview states.

Next Generation Technology and Autonomy

Another huge beneficiary of reconciliation funding would be the Pentagon’s unmanned and developmental tech efforts, which are set to rake in $102.5 billion.

The department’s Drone Dominance initiative is set to capture the majority of that funding, with $53.6 billion slated to “to accelerate the mass procurement of small aerial drones, including one-way attack drones, ensuring readiness for the future of drone warfare.”

The Pentagon intends to use $16.9 billion of those funds to buy uncrewed systems, $14.4 billion for counter-UAS systems, and $13.5 billion to build up a logistics system capable of supporting uncrewed platforms in a contested environment.

Another huge chunk of funding, at $46 billion, would be devoted to building a government-owned enterprise AI infrastructure. Meanwhile a further $2.4 billion would be set aside to “accelerate disruptive capabilities” associated with AI, with detailed spending classified.

Munitions Production

The reconciliation request includes $47 billion to “accelerate the delivery and drive munition industrial base investments,” a key priority of the Trump administration as it tries to beef up weapons stockpiles in the wake of operations against Iran and after arms transfers to Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion.

About $40 billion of that sum includes money for critical legacy munitions, including PAC-3 interceptors for the Patriot system, THAAD interceptors, several variants of the Standard Missile family, Tomahawk cruise missiles and AMRAAM air-to air missiles.

Since January, the Pentagon has inked framework agreements with weapons makers and key suppliers to ramp up production of those missiles, with companies pledging to use their own funds to bolster facilities and equipment. Funding from the reconciliation bill will be used to underwrite those agreements and definitize final contract agreements.

For more about the funding profiles of those munitions click here:

The Pentagon wants a 188 percent bump for missile procurement. Can industry deliver? 

Pentagon’s munitions acceleration council identifies 14 critical weapons for 2027 

Outside the realm of legacy munitions, the Pentagon hopes to use reconciliation funds on several key hypersonic weapons programs. It adds $326 million for several low-cost hypersonic strike weapon programs, including the Army’s Blackbeard and Navy’s Multi-mission Affordable Capacity Effector (MACE). It also includes $451 million for the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) / Long Range Hypersonic Weapon program.

For the classified Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, which is set to replace the AMRAAM, it provides $1.7 billion, split between $990 million for the Air Force and $676 million for the Navy. It includes another $101 million for integrating JATM on the F-35.

The department also asked for $1.6 billion in reconciliation money to supercharge development of low-cost missiles, with funds going toward the Air Force’s Family of Affordable Mass Missiles program and associated efforts to integrate low-cost missiles with new and existing launchers.

Golden Dome And Other Key Programs

Failure to pass a third reconciliation bill could have dire implications for the Golden Dome missile shield, one of the Trump administration’s signature defense priorities. The Pentagon has asked for $17.1 billion for the Golden Dome missile shield through reconciliation, with only $400 million for the project requested in the base budget.

About $14.4 billion in reconciliation funds would go toward air superiority projects, with much of that funding devoted toward the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The largest sum, $6.7 billion, would buy a total of 53 F-35s split between the services. It also includes $3 billion for F-35 sustainment and $1.3 billion for F-35 development, much of which would go toward the Block 4 modernization and upgrades for the jet’s engine and thermal management system.

A further $11.7 billion is set aside for space systems, with the majority of funds split between a $7.7 billion request to expand the Spaced-based Air Moving Target Indicator (SB-AMTI) high-band radar system and $3.1 billion to accelerate the expansion of a Proliferated Low Earth Orbit (pLEO) mesh constellation.

The request includes almost $7.7 billion for maritime superiority projects, including almost $1.9 billion “to investigate a full spectrum of procurement options to attract more shipbuilding capacity into domestic shipyards,” including using international shipbuilders to build vessels or components, the department states. It also includes $1.7 billion for six landing ship mediums, $1.7 billion for the surface ship maritime industrial base and $1.4 billion for the submarine industrial base.

Aaron Mehta and Michael Marrow in Washington contributed to this report.

A few afternoon reads...

May 8th, 2026~US rare earth champion views Iran war as demand ‘accelerant’

US rare earth champion views Iran war as demand ‘accelerant’ - MINING.COM

Individual slings of La Carbonate, a secondary product produced at MP Materials. Photo by Michael Tessler, MP Materials

The conflict in the Middle East has highlighted how future wars will be underpinned by rare earth magnets that are vital in drones and robots, according to MP Materials Corp., the Pentagon-backed producer.

“I think the importance of this supply chain was already widely known,” MP’s chief executive officer James Litinsky said on a quarterly earnings call. But this year’s conflict has offered “further recognition, maybe even pulling the timetable and scale of that demand forward.”

MP got a $400 million equity investment from the Department of Defense last year to back its planned expansion from America’s sole rare earths miner to the country’s leading producer of magnets. The tiny-but-powerful components enable precise coordination and movements of parts in unmanned equipment.

“The future of warfare will be around millions if not billions of robots and drones working in cohesion, and obviously that is just a huge demand accelerant for rare earth magnetics,” Litinsky said.

The company is among a cluster of ventures vying to ramp up magnet plants in the US, a push that has intensified after China placed some rare earths under export controls in 2025. MP has started one magnet facility in Texas, and recently broke ground to build another one ten times times the size nearby.

The firm beat profit forecasts with core earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of $36.6 million in the quarter through March. Production of separated “heavy” rare earths — among the most expensive — will begin imminently, it said.

Heavy rare earths are used as additives to help magnets maintain strength under high temperatures, making them especially important for vehicles, power systems and weapons. They were the target of China’s export curbs, and are now a key focus for western industry as it looks to loosen China’s supply grip.

Light and heavy

Litinsky played down worries about supplies of “heavies”, saying magnet producers were finding ways to reduce usage. MP and some of its peers are increasingly able to make high-performance magnets with little or no heavies content, a shift that could weaken prices for materials like dysprosium and terbium, the CEO said.

The main building block for most rare earth magnets is an alloy of “light” rare earths called NdPr, with heavies often making up a small percentage of the content. Prices for all rare earths have spiked this year, but the heavy rare earths have seen particularly strong demand.

“Prices will go up for NdPr, but I don’t think as much for the heavies,” Litinsky said. “Nobody knows with commodities prices, but I think that, versus market expectations, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the heavies decline quite substantially from here.”

MP extracts both light and heavy rare earths from its Mountain Pass mine in California, which is one of only two major sources of the materials operating outside of China’s orbit. The other is run by Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., which earlier this year committed a large chunk of its supply to Japanese customers well into next decade.

“As a result, there is very limited uncommitted NdPr supply available to support what research projects to be more than 60,000 tons of existing and announced Western magnet capacity over the coming years,” Litinsky said.

(By Jacob Lorinc and Martin Ritchie)

May 8th, 2026~US Secures Greenland Critical Minerals

US Secures Greenland Critical Minerals - Energy News Beat

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Home>Critical Minerals>US Secures Greenland Critical Minerals

US Secures Greenland Critical Minerals

Critical Minerals Electric Vehicles ENB Publisher Picks International News Investment Mining Supply Chain Top News

 May 8, 2026 Clark Savage693

In a significant step toward reducing dependence on China for critical minerals, American mining company Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML) has secured formal approval from the Greenland government to acquire a 70% stake in 60° North ApS, advancing full control over the world-class Tanbreez rare earth deposit in southern Greenland. This development, announced in early May 2026, positions the United States to tap one of the largest and most strategically valuable heavy rare earth element (HREE) resources outside China, bolstering supply chain security for electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, advanced defense systems, and the broader clean energy transition.

The Tanbreez deposit stands out globally for its scale and quality. It contains an estimated 4.7 billion tonnes of rare earth-bearing material, with an exceptional 27% composition of heavy rare earths—primarily dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium. These elements are essential for high-performance permanent magnets used in EV motors, wind turbine generators, and military applications such as fighter jets and precision-guided munitions. For comparison, the United States’ Mountain Pass deposit in California has only about 0.49% heavy rare earths, while China’s giant Bayan Obo mine registers around 1.13%.

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Equally important, Tanbreez features exceptionally low levels of radioactive elements—10–20 ppm uranium and under 100 ppm thorium—addressing a key environmental and permitting hurdle that has stalled other Greenland projects. The site already holds a full mining license valid until 2050, one of only two such licenses among more than 140 active exploration permits on the island.

Strategic Advantages and Timeline to Market

This acquisition aligns directly with U.S. efforts to diversify critical mineral supplies amid China’s dominance of 85% of global rare earth processing capacity and roughly 80% of U.S. imports. Heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium enable magnets that maintain performance at high temperatures, making them indispensable for efficient EVs, renewable energy infrastructure, and defense technologies. By extracting in Greenland and processing in the United States, the project creates a secure Western supply chain that reduces geopolitical risks from export controls or supply disruptions.

Development is accelerating. Critical Metals has committed $30 million to an acceleration program covering drilling, infrastructure, engineering, and metallurgy. A 150-tonne bulk sample program is slated for mid-2026, with pilot plant operations potentially starting soon after. First ore production is targeted for Q4 2028 or Q1 2029, with commercial concentrate exports expected around Q3 2029. Initial output is planned at 85,000 tonnes of rare earth oxides (REO) per year, scalable to 425,000 tonnes annually. The project’s estimated value exceeds $3 billion.

U.S. government support underscores the strategic priority. The Export-Import Bank of the United States issued a letter of interest for up to $120 million in financing—the first overseas mining investment of its kind under recent administrations—while the company has secured offtake commitments for 25% of near-term production: 10% to U.S. processor Ucore Rare Metals (backed by Department of Defense funding) and 15% to REalloys for domestic magnet manufacturing.

Companies Involved and Investor Opportunities

Critical Metals Corp., a New York-based firm, now holds a controlling interest (approximately 92.5% following earlier transfers approved in April 2026, with the latest 70% stake in the holding entity further solidifying operational control). European Lithium retains a minority stake. The company’s NASDAQ listing (CRML) has seen strong investor interest following these milestones, reflecting optimism around production ramps and Western-aligned supply security.For investors, Tanbreez offers direct exposure to the rare earth sector’s growth drivers: surging demand from the energy transition and defense spending. While mining projects carry execution risks (Arctic logistics, capital intensity), the advanced permitting, low-radioactivity profile, and government backing reduce key uncertainties. Related plays could include U.S. downstream processors like Ucore or magnet makers benefiting from secure feedstock. Broader Greenland activity may also lift sentiment for other critical minerals explorers in allied jurisdictions.

Impact on U.S. Consumers, Energy, and Critical Mineral Markets

Securing Tanbreez will have ripple effects across U.S. markets. Reliable domestic and allied supplies of heavy rare earths can stabilize prices for EVs, renewable energy equipment, and consumer electronics, shielding against China-linked volatility. Long-term, this supports lower costs for the clean energy transition by ensuring magnet supply for wind and EV growth, while strengthening national security through domestic processing capabilities.

The U.S. currently faces vulnerabilities in critical mineral markets, with heavy reliance on adversarial sources. Tanbreez advances the goal of “friend-shoring” by channeling Greenland resources into North American supply chains. It complements other initiatives, such as domestic projects and alliances with Australia and Japan, helping meet the projected doubling of magnet rare earth demand by 2050. Consumers ultimately benefit from more resilient supply chains, potentially lower long-term energy costs, and continued innovation in green technologies.

This milestone is part of a broader U.S. strategy emphasizing Arctic partnerships and critical minerals independence. ****While full-scale production is still years away, the Greenland approval marks a concrete win in securing the minerals essential to America’s energy future and technological edge.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS AS ALWAYS:

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While much of the market continues to overlook NioCorp sitting around the ~$6 range, the company itself appears laser-focused on execution. Over the years, NioCorp has already raised and deployed more than $500 million toward advancing Elk Creek, permitting, engineering, testing, and now actual underground portal construction. This is no longer just a “concept” story. The dual portal development underway today signals a company that appears determined to get this project built come "hell or high water"; especially as the U.S. critical minerals crisis continues to intensify by the week.

Now the attention shifts toward what may be the final major catalysts needed to unlock the next phase. Monday marks roughly one month since the tentative Traxys agreement was announced, and Mark Smith previously indicated expectations for completion around late April into early May. If finalized, Traxys could potentially solve one of the largest remaining hurdles for lenders and financiers: long-term commercial distribution and product placement across Elk Creek’s diversified critical mineral suite. Pair that with the long-awaited DFS expected any time through June, and the project could rapidly transition from “advanced developer” into fully financeable strategic infrastructure.

**GIVEN on April 9th, 2026- NioCorp Reaches Non-Binding Agreement with Traxys North America for Potential Purchase of All of NioCorp’s Remaining Planned Products

NioCorp Reaches Non-Binding Agreement with Traxys North America for Potential Purchase of All of NioCorp’s Remaining Planned Products | NioCorp Developments Ltd.

Meanwhile... (They gotta be close to signing???... Let's Gooooo!!!)

The broader macro backdrop only strengthens the thesis. Washington is openly scrambling to secure domestic supply chains for defense-critical materials as missile inventories shrink, drone warfare expands, and China continues tightening control over rare earths and advanced materials. Elk Creek directly checks multiple boxes at once: niobium for advanced steel and defense alloys, scandium and ScAl alloys for aerospace and lightweight systems, titanium for industrial and military applications, plus magnetic rare earth pathways tied to the future of drones, robotics, AI infrastructure, and advanced weapons systems.

When Traxys closes and the DFS delivers as expected, the runway toward a potential mid-2026 EXIM FID becomes far more visible. With portal construction targeting completion around September 2026, the timing increasingly suggests NioCorp is trying to align financing, engineering, commercial agreements, and underground readiness all at once — leaving the door open for a potential major construction buildout shortly thereafter. At some point the market may have to stop valuing Elk Creek like a speculative junior and start valuing it for what it increasingly appears to be: a fully permitted, multi-generational National Strategic Asset hiding in plain sight.

Waiting for more material news as it becomes available with many...

For some worried that delays in Pentagon reconciliation funding somehow derail NioCorp’s path toward a potential EXIM FID — but those are not necessarily the same thing. ~CONSIDER: EXIM financing operates under its own authority and evaluates projects based on economics, strategic importance, technical readiness, permitting, repayment strength, and commercial viability. In other words: the exact areas where Elk Creek continues to advance. The pending DFS, potential Traxys deal, ongoing portal construction, existing Thyssenkrupp relationship, and growing strategic urgency around U.S. critical minerals all strengthen the core EXIM thesis regardless of how fast Congress moves on a separate reconciliation package.

If anything, the headlines actually reinforce the importance of projects like Elk Creek. Washington is openly acknowledging severe vulnerabilities across critical minerals, defense supply chains, rare earth magnets, advanced alloys, and industrial capacity. Whether funding comes through reconciliation, direct agency support, DPA programs, EXIM financing, or future strategic stockpile initiatives, the underlying need is not disappearing — it’s accelerating. That’s why NioCorp’s positioning today looks increasingly important: fully permitted, advanced engineering underway, separation work figured out at scale, and potentially approaching the final commercial and financing milestones needed to move toward construction. The need for what Elk Creek may deliver appears bigger now than at any point in the project’s history.

Staying tuned.... Let's Goooo team NioCorp!!

Chico

May 6th, 2026 Critical Minerals M&A Heatmap: 10 Projects the Majors are Watching

2026 Critical Minerals M&A Heatmap: 10 Projects the Majors are Watching | Skillin

Ranked #2. ~NioCorp Developments (Elk Creek) – Score: 27/30 Primary Minerals: Niobium, Scandium, Titanium & Rare Earths. Location: Nebraska, USA

The era of tentative exploration is dead. In March 2026, the global mining landscape has shifted from “discovery mode” to “acquisition at any cost.” We are no longer discussing the possibility of a supply gap; we are living through the most aggressive commodity supercycle of the 21st century.
The catalyst isn’t just the energy transition. It’s the Pentagon’s Mandate.

Washington has finally realized that mineral security is national security. With the Department of Defense (DoD) now taking direct equity stakes in domestic mining operations and issuing billion-dollar “Buy American” directives, the majors: BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, and Vale: are in a race to secure Tier-1 assets before they are either nationalized or locked into exclusive long-term government contracts.

This is the 2026 Critical Minerals M&A Heatmap. These are the assets currently under the microscope of the world’s largest balance sheets.

The Methodology: Decoding the ‘Buyability Score’

Evaluating a mining project in 2026 requires a different lens than the spreadsheets of 2019. Cash flow is secondary to strategic relevance. To rank these projects, we developed a proprietary Buyability Score (out of 30) based on three critical pillars:

1. Strategic Asset Grade (10 pts): Is the mineral essential for high-end defense, AI infrastructure, or next-gen batteries? Does the grade allow for low-cost processing?
2. Permitting Speed (10 pts): Has the project received FAST-41 status or similar regulatory acceleration? In 2026, a 10-year permitting timeline is a dealbreaker.
3. Pentagon Alignment (10 pts): Is there existing DoD funding (DPA Title III) or a clear path to US/Allied off-take?

The projects below represent the “Heatmap”: the targets where the Venn diagram of geology and geopolitics overlaps most aggressively.

The Top 10 Heatmap: 2026 Analysis

1. Perpetua Resources (Stibnite Gold Project) – Score: 28/30

Primary Mineral: Antimony (and Gold)
Location: Idaho, USA

Perpetua is the undisputed “Golden Child” of the Pentagon’s domestic mineral strategy. Antimony is the bottleneck for everything from armor-piercing ammunition to large-scale liquid metal batteries. China currently controls the lion’s share of global supply: a fact that keeps US defense planners awake at night. Perpetua’s Stibnite project has received over $59 million in DoD backing to date. The asset is no longer just a mine; it is a strategic reserve. The majors aren’t just looking at the gold; they’re looking at the antimony moat.

2. NioCorp Developments (Elk Creek) – Score: 27/30

Primary Minerals: Niobium, Scandium, Titanium
Location: Nebraska, USA

Elk Creek is the highest-grade primary niobium deposit in North America. Niobium is the “secret sauce” in high-strength, low-alloy steels used in jet engines and rockets. With JPMorgan predicting massive shifts in commodity valuations, assets that offer a trifecta of superalloy materials are seeing their “Buyability” skyrocket. The project is deep in the permitting process and fits perfectly into the “secure supply chain” mandate.

NioCorp_Presentation.pdf

EXIM is already processing NioCorp's $800M loan.... \"let that sink in!\" ***MEANWHILE- NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

3. Graphite One (Graphite Creek) – Score: 26/30

Primary Mineral: Graphite
Location: Alaska, USA

Graphite is the heaviest component by weight in an EV battery. Without it, the “Green Revolution” is a fantasy. Graphite Creek is the largest known graphite deposit in the US. As the West attempts to decouple from Chinese processing, Graphite One’s plan for an integrated mine-to-anode supply chain makes it an irresistible target for a major looking to verticalize.

4. South32 (Hermosa) – Score: 25/30

Primary Minerals: Zinc, Lead, Manganese
Location: Arizona, USA

South32 has already signaled the value here by designating Hermosa as the first project to be covered by the FAST-41 federal permitting process. It is a massive polymetallic play. Specifically, its battery-grade manganese potential puts it squarely in the sights of companies looking to diversify away from African supply chains. This is a “Majors” project in both scale and execution.

5. Defense Metals (Wicheeda) – Score: 24/30

Primary Mineral: Rare Earth Elements (REE)
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Rare earths are the most vulnerable link in the tech supply chain. Wicheeda is a world-class light rare earth deposit with infrastructure access that most remote projects lack. For a major looking to break into the rare earth supply sector, Wicheeda offers a derisked entry point in a Tier-1 jurisdiction.

6. USA Rare Earth (Round Top) – Score: 23/30

Primary Mineral: Heavy Rare Earths, Lithium
Location: Texas, USA

Round Top is a unique “heap-leachable” heavy rare earth deposit. It provides the dysprosium and terbium needed for permanent magnets in EV motors and wind turbines. The Texas location offers a favorable regulatory environment and proximity to emerging tech hubs. Its multi-commodity nature (including lithium and gallium) makes it a complex but high-reward acquisition.

7. MP Materials (Mountain Pass) – Score: 22/30

Primary Mineral: Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr)
Location: California, USA

MP Materials is already a producer, which changes the M&A calculus. They aren’t a “project”: they are a platform. However, at their current valuation, they represent a “bolt-on” for a diversified major wanting instant market share in the magnetics space. The downside? The California regulatory environment remains a persistent friction point compared to states like Nevada, which reclaimed its crown as the top mining jurisdiction in 2025.

8. Guardian Metal Resources (Pilot Mountain) – Score: 21/30

Primary Mineral: Tungsten
Location: Nevada, USA

Tungsten is the “forgotten” critical mineral, yet it is essential for heavy weaponry and industrial tools. Pilot Mountain is one of the largest undeveloped tungsten resources in the US. In a world of restricted trade, securing a Nevada-based tungsten source is a tactical masterstroke. The “buyability” here is high because the entry price for a major is relatively low compared to the strategic upside.

9. Aclara Resources (Carina) – Score: 20/30

Primary Mineral: Heavy Rare Earths (Ionic Clays)
Location: Brazil

While the focus is often on North America, the majors are looking at “friendly” jurisdictions globally. Aclara’s ionic clay deposits are easier and cleaner to process than traditional hard-rock REE mines. Brazil’s mining-friendly stance makes this a key satellite asset for a global critical minerals portfolio.

10. 6K Additive (Circular) – Score: 19/30

Primary Category: Critical Mineral Recycling
Location: USA

M&A in 2026 isn’t just about digging holes; it’s about “Circular Supply.” 6K Additive uses microwave plasma technology to turn scrap into battery-grade materials. For a major mining company, acquiring a recycling leader is the ultimate ESG hedge. It allows them to claim a “closed-loop” system, which is increasingly becoming a requirement for European and US government procurement.

Conclusion: The ‘What’s Next’ for Investors

The trend is clear: M&A is no longer optional.

In the previous decade, majors could afford to wait for juniors to de-risk projects completely. That luxury is gone. Today, the Pentagon and the Department of Energy are the new “Lead Investors.” When the DoD grants a $50 million Title III award to a project, they aren’t just funding a feasibility study; they are flagging that asset as a “Must Own” for the Western alliance.

For investors, the signal is in the permitting and the partnerships. Watch for FAST-41 designations and DoD grants. Those are the markers of the projects that will be absorbed by the majors before the decade is out.

The supply crunch of 2026 was predicted years ago. Now, it’s a reality. The scramble for the heatmap has only just begun.

A few afternoon reads with your brew of choice...

May 7th, 2026~Western Nations Accelerate $12B Critical Mineral Initiatives as Global Export Restrictions Reach Record Highs

Western Nations Accelerate $12B Critical Mineral Initiatives as Global Export Restrictions Reach Record Highs

Dual portal ramp construction ongoing since March 2026.

NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ: NB) announced Nebraska enacted legislation giving the company greater flexibility to qualify for approximately $200 million in state tax incentives over the first ten years of operations at the Elk Creek Project in southeast Nebraska, in return for investing hundreds of millions of dollars in the state and creating approximately 450 full-time equivalent jobs. Signed by Governor Jim Pillen on April 16, 2026, the legislation extends the period during which companies must meet Tier 6 Nebraska Advantage Act employment and investment requirements.

"I want to thank Governor Pillen, Revenue Committee Chairman Brad von Gillern, Senator Hallstrom, and members of the Nebraska Unicameral for supporting this effort," said Mark A. Smith, Chairman and CEO of NioCorp Developments. "Nebraska has stood behind the Elk Creek Project from the very beginning, and this is another clear demonstration of that commitment."

The Elk Creek Project is expected to create approximately 450 permanent direct jobs in southeast Nebraska, support an estimated 2,100 additional jobs throughout the broader state economy, and generate approximately $6.59 billion in operating expenses over the project's life. NioCorp Developments is a leading U.S. critical minerals developer focused on advancing the project toward production.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS AS ALWAYS:

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

⏳🔥 NioCorp: From “Speculative Junior” to Strategic National Asset? (May 7th, 2026 Update)

The market still has NioCorp sitting around a $6 share price while the entire critical minerals landscape is being rewritten in real time. Meanwhile, new industry rankings are now placing Elk Creek among the most strategically important critical mineral projects in North America—ranking ahead of or alongside many peers already commanding multi-billion-dollar valuations. Why? Because Elk Creek is no longer just a niobium story. It’s a fully integrated U.S. critical minerals platform with SIX potential commercial pathways: niobium, scandium, titanium, magnetic rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb), plus the downstream potential of ScAl alloys and advanced materials.

The timing could not be more important. The Pentagon, DOE, EXIM, and U.S. policymakers are openly admitting America’s supply chains are dangerously exposed after years of dependence on China for defense-critical materials. Niobium strengthens military steel and aerospace alloys. Scandium and ScAl alloys could revolutionize lightweight aerospace and defense manufacturing. Dy/Tb rare earths are required for high-temperature magnets in missiles, EVs, radar systems, and the F-35 supply chain. Titanium feeds aerospace, defense, and industrial demand. Elk Creek touches nearly every chokepoint the U.S. is now scrambling to secure.

What separates NioCorp from many peers is that this project is not starting from scratch anymore. The separation flowsheets have already been heavily advanced and refined at scale. That matters. Plenty of deposits exist on paper; far fewer have proven processing pathways capable of commercial execution. As the pending DFS approaches—expected any time now through June—the market could finally receive updated economics, recoveries, and validation of a project that has already spent years quietly de-risking behind the scenes.

Then there’s the commercial side. Thyssenkrupp already locked in a major niobium offtake position. Now the pending Traxys deal has investors increasingly believing NioCorp could secure broad global distribution and potential anchor investment support across the remaining product suite. If confirmed, that would dramatically reduce one of the largest financing risks in mining: proving long-term buyers exist. In other words, the market may soon realize Elk Creek’s production is effectively spoken for before the mine is even built. That is EXACTLY the kind of setup EXIM wants to see before issuing a Final Investment Decision.

And the timeline keeps tightening. Dual portal construction continues advancing toward completion around September 2026. EXIM FID has repeatedly been telegraphed for mid-2026. If the DFS and Traxys announcements land successfully, NioCorp could move directly from ramp development into full-scale construction financing. That’s when the valuation discussion changes entirely. At that point, Elk Creek stops being viewed as a distant concept project and starts being valued as a strategic U.S. industrial asset with locked-in demand, advanced processing capability, government alignment, and long-life production potential.

As Mark Smith recently stated, “We’re advancing all the pieces necessary to move this project forward.” Staying tuned with many because in a world scrambling for secure U.S. critical mineral supply chains, NioCorp is starting to look less like a speculative junior and more like a true National Strategic Asset hiding in plain sight!

As Mark Smith recently stated, “We’re advancing all the pieces necessary to move this project forward.” That statement carries a lot more weight today when you stack Elk Creek against many of the other critical mineral players now chasing billion-dollar valuations. NioCorp already has the permits, advanced separation work at scale, ongoing underground development, potential EXIM backing, existing offtake interest, a pending Traxys deal, and an imminent DFS expected any time through June**—all supporting SIX potential commercial pathways spanning niobium, scandium, titanium, magnetic rare earths, ScAl alloys, and downstream advanced materials.**

While others are still years away trying to prove concepts, Elk Creek is already engaged in the execution phase. That’s why a ~$6 share price looks increasingly disconnected from the strategic value sitting in the ground. In a world scrambling for secure U.S. critical mineral supply chains, NioCorp is starting to look less like a speculative junior and more like a true National Strategic Asset hiding in plain sight!

"All Aboard...!"

Chico

May 6th, 2026~USA Rare Earth Round Top: Update, Timeline, and Investment Risks

USA Rare Earth Round Top: Update, Timeline, and Investment Risks - Skillings Mining Review

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The $1.6 billion financing package committed by the U.S. Commerce Department in January 2026 provides the necessary de-risking for a project of this magnitude. This federal backing is intended to cover both the mine development and the downstream magnet manufacturing facilities, ensuring that the ore mined in Texas doesn’t have to leave the country for processing.

Why It Matters: Decoupling from the China Supply Chain

Currently, China controls roughly 60% of global rare earth production and over 85% of processing capacity. The Round Top project is specifically designed to bypass this monopoly. Unlike traditional REE deposits that are often difficult to process due to high thorium or uranium content, Round Top’s rhyolite-hosted mineralization allows for a simplified heap leach extraction process.

This technical advantage, combined with the scale of the deposit, positions Texas as a central hub for the “Green Transition.” This mirrors similar strategic developments we have tracked internationally, such as the Per Geijer rare earths discovery in Sweden, where domestic supply is being prioritized over cheaper, geopolitically risky imports.

Technical Milestones and Extraction Goals

By 2030, USA Rare Earth aims to process 40,000 metric tons of feedstock per day. This scale is necessary to support the “integrated technology platform” vision. This isn’t just a mining company; it is a magnet company. The goal is to produce permanent magnets for EVs and wind turbines using Texas-sourced materials.

The extraction will utilize advanced mineral processing technologies to separate the heavy rare earths, which are significantly more valuable and harder to find than “light” rare earths like cerium or lanthanum. Heavy REEs (like terbium and dysprosium) are the essential ingredients for magnets that can operate at high temperatures: the exact kind required for electric vehicle motors and defense applications.

USA Rare Earth (USAR) has finalized a $73 million strategic buyout of Texas Mineral Resources Corporation (TMRC), securing 100% operational control and the total economic benefit of the Round Top project. This consolidation marks a pivotal moment for domestic mineral security, as Round Top represents North America’s largest known deposit of heavy rare earth elements (REEs) and essential critical minerals.

The transaction, structured as an all-stock deal involving approximately 3.8 million shares of USAR common stock, effectively ends the previous joint venture structure. By absorbing TMRC’s 18.6% interest, USA Rare Earth now commands the full development trajectory of a site that is expected to become the cornerstone of a non-China critical mineral technology platform.

The Strategic Buyout: Consolidating the “Crown Jewel”

The $73 million acquisition includes long-term leases on approximately 950 acres at the Round Top site in Hudspeth County, Texas, along with prospecting rights for an additional 9,345 acres. For operators and investors, the move simplifies a complex governance structure that previously required alignment between two distinct corporate boards.

With full ownership, USA Rare Earth can now streamline capital planning and accelerate its technical milestones without the friction of joint venture negotiations. This is particularly relevant given the high-stakes nature of the Round Top deposit, which contains not only rare earths but also significant quantities of lithium, gallium, beryllium, and nickel.

The Round Top project sits on land leased from the Texas General Land Office. In a unique fiscal structure, the lease proceeds support the Texas Permanent School Fund, directly linking the success of this mining operation to public education funding in the state.

The Kramer Play: Recommending Stocks in the REE Super-Cycle

For investors looking at the “Krameresq” high-conviction landscape, the consolidation of Round Top signals a “Buy” signal for the broader domestic critical minerals sector. While USA Rare Earth remains a private entity (with public listing aspirations), the ripple effects of this $73M deal are profound across the market.

1. MP Materials (NYSE: MP) – The Benchmark Play
If you like the USA Rare Earth consolidation, you have to love MP Materials. They are the current king of domestic REE production. While USA Rare Earth is aiming for 2028, MP is already extracting and moving toward vertical integration with magnet manufacturing. This consolidation at Round Top validates the valuation of domestic assets. Action: Buy the dips as a long-term hedge against Chinese export quotas.

2. Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE: UUUU) – The Processing Powerhouse
Rare earths are useless without processing. Energy Fuels has been pivoting its White Mesa Mill to handle monazite sands. As USA Rare Earth scales up to its 40,000 metric tons per day goal, the demand for North American processing capacity will skyrocket. Action: Hold for the infrastructure pivot.

3. Texas Mineral Resources (OTCQB: TMRC) – The Final Exit
For those holding TMRC, the 3.8 million share exchange for USAR stock is a transition from a junior explorer to a piece of a “globally integrated technology platform.” This is the classic M&A exit. Action: Transition into the USAR equity and watch the 2028 production milestones.

4. Lithium and Battery Metals (Global Perspective)
The Round Top site isn’t just about neodymium and dysprosium; it’s a lithium play. As we’ve noted in our global battery revolution analysis, domestic sourcing is the only way to satisfy the upcoming EV tax credit requirements.

Round Top Project Metrics and Timeline

Under the “Accelerated Mining Plan,” USA Rare Earth has set an aggressive schedule to bring the project online.

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Key Investment Risks: The 2028 Horizon

While the consolidation is a net positive, investors must weigh the inherent risks of a project with a 2028 start date:

1. Execution Risk: Building a mine and a processing facility simultaneously is a massive undertaking. The history of the mining industry is littered with projects that saw cost overruns during the transition from pilot plant to commercial scale.
2. Market Volatility: Rare earth prices are notoriously volatile and often influenced by Chinese state policy. A sudden “dumping” of REEs by China could depress prices just as Round Top comes online.
3. Permitting and Environmental Scrutiny: Although the project is on state-leased land with federal backing, the scale of 40,000 metric tons per day will require significant water and environmental management in a desert environment.

As we noted in our April 2026 Mining Intelligence briefing, the shift toward domestic self-reliance is the primary driver of M&A activity this year. The USA Rare Earth/TMRC deal is a textbook example of this trend.

The Bottom Line: Texas as a Global Mining Hub

The Round Top buyout is a signal that the era of fragmented junior mining in the critical minerals space is coming to an end. Consolidation is the name of the game. For Texas, this project brings high-tech industrial jobs and a renewed status as a global leader in energy materials.

For the mining professional, the integration of Round Top signifies a shift toward large-scale, tech-heavy operations that prioritize sustainability and national security. As seen in recent Skillings Mining Review reports, the intersection of government policy and private capital is now the most powerful force in the industry.

A few afternoon reads while we continue to wait for a completed Traxys Deal & pending DFS...

MAY 2026- NORTH AMERICAN MINING MAGAZINE (NioCorp/Traxys)

911f1c55eaf89a979188aa0e3dd276fcbcf65aec.pdf

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FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS AS ALWAYS:

EXIM is already processing NioCorp's $800M loan.... \"let that sink in!\"

⏳ Waiting Game or Final Setup? NioCorp Nearing the Inflection Point (May 2026 Update)

Right now, NioCorp ~ we shareholders are sitting in that uncomfortable but often rewarding zone between what’s known and what’s about to be confirmed. The two biggest near-term catalysts: The pending Traxys deal and the DFS expected any time through June—aren’t just routine updates. Together, they represent the final pieces needed to shift Elk Creek from a development story into a fully financeable, construction-ready project.

On the demand side, the picture is getting clearer by the day. With Thyssenkrupp already locking in a major share of niobium, and Traxys potentially stepping in as a global distributor across the remaining products, NioCorp is moving toward something rare in this space: a project with its production effectively pre-sold. That removes one of the biggest risks lenders worry about—who’s actually going to buy the material—and lines up perfectly with what the Export-Import Bank of the United States needs to see before committing financing.

On the technical side, this isn’t a blank-slate project. NioCorp has spent years advancing its processing flowsheets and refining how it plans to produce niobium, scandium, titanium, and rare earths. That level of preparation matters because it supports the upcoming DFS, which is expected to formalize the economics, validate the flowsheet at a commercial level, and provide the backbone for financing discussions.

Timing is everything here—and the timeline is tightening. Portal construction has been underway since March, dual portals are targeting completion around September, and EXIM FID is being telegraphed for mid-2026. If the DFS and Traxys deal land as expected, NioCorp could move directly into full construction upon financing. That’s a rare alignment: technical readiness, commercial demand, and government-backed funding all converging within months—not years!!

So yes, the wait has been real, but it’s not without reward. It’s the kind of wait where multiple de-risking milestones are stacking behind the scenes. If those last two pieces—Traxys and the DFS—fall into place, the narrative changes fast: from “potential” to execution. And when that switch flips, the market usually doesn’t move slowly—it reprices all at once.

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

When NioCorp delivers the Traxys deal and the DFS as expected, the shift from waiting to execution happens fast & the market won’t have the luxury of slowly catching up. You’d have demand largely spoken for, financing in clear view, and a construction-ready asset aligned with urgent U.S. strategic needs. As Mark Smith has said, this is a “National Strategic Asset”—and when a project moves from concept to inevitability under that kind of backdrop, valuation gaps don’t linger… they close. "All Aboard!"...

Chico

May 4th, 2026~The U.S. Navy’s New Columbia-Class Stealth Submarine Is Built to Fight a Nuclear World War III

The U.S. Navy's New Columbia-Class Stealth Submarine Is Built to Fight a Nuclear World War III - 19FortyFive

Columbia-Class Submarine SSBN Rendering U.S. Navy Photo

The U.S. Navy’s first Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine arrives in 2028—and developers are calling it the quietest, most lethal submarine ever built. With an electric drive propulsion system, an X-shaped stern, and 16 Trident II D5 nuclear missiles, the Columbia-class is designed to lurk silently in the dark corners of the ocean for the next 60 years of American nuclear deterrence. The Navy’s first next-generation high-tech new Columbia-class submarine will arrive in 2028 as the service works intensely to build its first two nuclear-armed boats.

Intended to quietly and secretly lurk in dark corners of the ocean in a position to launch a catastrophic “second-strike” retaliation in the event the US comes under nuclear attack, the new Columbia-class submarines will introduce a new generation of undersea technology.

The submarines could not arrive too soon, as the existing Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines have already served decades beyond their intended service life – and securing the undersea portion of the nuclear triad with Columbia submarines has long been deemed the Pentagon’s top acquisition priority.

The first Columbia-class patrols are slated for the early 2030s as part of a new era in undersea strategic deterrence intended to function well into the 2080s and beyond.

A second Columbia-class submarine is also well underway in the construction process.

Modules, as they are called, continue to take shape at General Dynamics Electric Boat in Groton, CT., and much of the initial production and science and technology work began more than 10 years ago.

Columbia-Class SSBN USN. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

As early as 2014, the Navy was working on what’s called “tube and hull forging” to weld missile tubes into 4-pack units for integration into emerging ship modules. The technologies for the boat also date back many years and have been designed to be work in progress, meaning they are engineered to meet technical standards so new innovations can be quickly and easily integrated. 

Stealthiest Submarine Ever

Interestingly, the Columbia-class submarines are described by their developers as perhaps the quietest and most lethal submarines ever built.

While much of the boat’s technology is not available for security reasons, the boat is engineered with an electric drive propulsion system that can both power the boat with additional electricity and greatly reduce the submarine’s acoustic signature.

Being stealthier than any submarine ever to exist would be a critical advantage for nuclear-armed submarines, as their tactical advantage depends upon “not” being detected. A quieter submarine emitting a smaller or less detectable undersea acoustic signature would, of course, be much less likely to give away its position of strategic advantage.

Early rendering of what Columbia-class could look like

X-Shaped Stern

 The new Columbia-class submarines are also being built with a new “X” shaped stern designed to improve undersea maneuverability while generating a smaller or less detectable “signature.” 

In today’s Ohio-class submarines, a reactor plant generates heat, which in turn powers a steam turbine.

The steam then turns the turbines that produce the sub’s electricity and also propels the ship forward. This propulsion is achieved through “reduction gears,” which translate the high-speed energy from a turbine into the shaft RPMs needed to drive a boat’s propeller. 

The Columbia-class submarines are designed to be 560 feet long and to house 16 Trident II D5 missiles fired from 44-foot-long missile tubes.  

The “X”-shaped stern will restore maneuverability to submarines; as submarine designs progressed from propellers to propulsors to improve quieting, submarines lost some surface maneuverability.

Electric-drive propulsion technology still relies on a nuclear reactor to generate heat and create steam to power turbines; however, the electricity produced is transferred to an electric motor rather than so-called reduction gears to spin the boat’s propellers.

Navy Plans 12 Columbia-class Boats

Should one Columbia-class submarine be detected, giving a potential adversary the possibility that they might be able to stop, neutralize, or prevent any US Navy second-strike retaliatory option, the Navy plans for built-in redundancy with a fleet of 12 Columbia-class submarines, simultaneously positioned in critical parts of the undersea to strike.

The presence of multiple Columbia-class patrols at once can ensure a second-strike retaliatory attack capability, even if one is found, disabled, or destroyed by an adversary before a nuclear attack.

There are currently 14 Ohio-class submarines, yet the Columbia-class will only consist of 12 boats, in large measure because they are being built with a cutting-edge “life-of-core” nuclear reactor, meaning they won’t have to spend time away from service out of the water in dry dock for mid-life refueling halfway through their service life.

PACIFIC OCEAN (June 28, 2024) – An AS-332 Super Puma assigned to the Lewis and Clark-class dry cargo ship USNS Cesar Chavez (T-AKE 14) delivers supplies to the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Louisiana (SSBN 743) during a vertical replenishment at sea, June 28, 2024. The presence of the SSBN in the Pacific demonstrates the flexibility, survivability, readiness, and capability of the U.S. Navy submarine forces and complements the many exercises, training, operations, and other military cooperation activities conducted by Strategic Forces to ensure they are available and ready to operate around the globe at any time. Homeported in Bangor, Washington and currently assigned to Submarine Squadron 17, Louisiana is an undetectable launch platform for submarine-launched ballistic missiles, providing the United States with its most survivable leg of the nuclear triad. (U.S. Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Andrew McPeek)

A fleet of 12 Columbia-class submarines can accomplish much more undersea strategic-deterrence “presence” and deployment times can be extended.

New Technology

Also, Columbia-class submarines are being built with several cutting-edge technological innovations, as are the US Navy’s new generation of Virginia-class attack submarines.

Block III and beyond, US-Navy Virginia-class attack submarines are built with a next-generation “fiber-optic” visual sensor cable, which enables commanders and ship navigators to see a “periscope” view from anywhere in the boat.

The new nuclear-armed submarines are also being engineered with a “fly-by-wire” computerized navigational system, which replaces previous hydraulic mechanical systems. 

Using computer automation, depth and speed can be analyzed and set to a certain extent semi-autonomously while managed by a human decision-maker, and maneuvering can be controlled with a digital “joystick”- type navigation system.

A few reads with coffee...

May 4th 2026~U.S. Navy's next 21,000-ton nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine to be delivered in 2028

US Navy’s next 21,000-ton nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine to be delivered in 2028

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The Columbia-class submarine program encountered early setbacks.

The United States Navy’s effort to build its newest class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines is now expected to reach a key milestone in 2028, according to General Dynamics.

The lead vessel, currently under construction, has faced schedule adjustments but is showing signs of steady progress as production challenges are gradually resolved.

First submarine was planned for delivery earlier

Reports revealed that the first submarine in this class was initially planned for delivery earlier, but complications during construction led to a revised target. Issues involving the supply of critical components, along with delays in assembling major sections of the vessel, contributed to the shift in schedule. These obstacles are not uncommon in large-scale defense programs, particularly those involving advanced technologies and highly specialized manufacturing processes.

However, recent updates indicate that the situation is improving. Shipbuilders have reported better coordination with suppliers and increased efficiency within the workforce. As a result, more components are being delivered on time, allowing assembly work to move forward at a more consistent pace, according to reports.

Intended to replace the aging fleet

“District of Columbia (SSBN-826), currently being assembled at GD Electric Boat is on a path to deliver that first boat by the end of 2028, so excellent progress in the last six or nine months on the Columbia program,” GD’s president Danny Deep told USNI during a first-quarter earnings call on Wednesday.

This new class of submarines is intended to replace the aging fleet currently responsible for a significant portion of the country’s nuclear deterrence. Once operational, these vessels will ensure that the United States maintains a continuous and reliable sea-based nuclear capability. Because of this critical role, the program has been given top priority within naval modernization efforts.

Submarine to begin operational patrols around the end of the decade

The Navy plans for the first submarine to begin operational patrols around the end of the decade, aligning with the gradual retirement of older submarines. Maintaining this timeline is considered essential to avoid gaps in strategic coverage.

Work is not limited to just the lead vessel. Additional submarines in the series are already in various stages of construction, with plans to continue building them at a steady rate. The long-term objective is to create a fleet capable of supporting national defense needs well into the future.

Significant funding has been allocated to ensure the continuation of this program, reflecting its importance. The Navy aims to maintain consistent production to avoid further delays and keep overall costs under control.

Despite recent progress, some risks remain. The project still depends on a complex network of suppliers and a highly skilled workforce. Any disruptions in these areas could affect the timeline again. Officials continue to monitor these factors closely while emphasizing the importance of maintaining both quality and safety standards.

Although the Columbia-class submarine program encountered early setbacks, current developments suggest it is moving in a positive direction. The updated 2028 delivery goal represents a realistic adjustment rather than a major derailment. As construction advances and processes become more efficient, the program remains central to the future strength and reliability of the United States’ strategic defense capabilities.

The Fiscal Year 2027 budget request includes $15 billion for the Columbia-class funding line that includes the last tranche of funding for the third Columbia boat Groton (SSBN-828) and full-funding for the fourth unnamed boat, SSBN-829, reported USNI News.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

IBC Advanced Alloys Announces Amendment of Existing Credit Facility

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IMHO~🔥 These Quiet Moves = Big Signals — IBC Is Lining Up for Scale, Not Survival!

IBC Advanced Alloys’ expansion of its credit facility to $7M and extension out to 2028 isn’t flashy—but it’s exactly the kind of move you see before something bigger! Combined with the earlier bridge financing from The Lind Partners, this isn’t random capital raising—it’s balance sheet positioning. They’ve effectively bought themselves time, stability, and credibility, which are prerequisites when you’re in active discussions with the U.S. Department of Defense or aligning for any form of industrial base funding.

Now zoom out. The DoD isn’t being subtle—BILLIONS are being directed into castings, forgings, metallurgy, and domestic capacity expansion.

See- April 2026~Department of War Fiscal Year 2027 Mandatory Budget Overview

DoW_FY2027_Mandatory_Budget_Overview_and_Dash1_FINAL.pdf

That lines up almost perfectly with IBC’s stated roadmap: restart Cu-Ni and aluminum bronze, expand near-net-shape casting, install a vacuum cap furnace, and ultimately add forging capability. When a company’s growth plan mirrors federal funding priorities this closely, it stops looking like speculation and starts looking like strategic alignment.

At the same time, IBC has been very deliberate in highlighting that it already supplies the U.S. Navy submarine base. That matters more than anything. In defense, being inside the system is the hardest part—and IBC is already there. As submarine production ramps and industrial base funding accelerates, the bottleneck shifts upstream to materials and throughput. That’s exactly where IBC operates today.

Layer in the broader ecosystem and it gets even more interesting. NioCorp Developments Ltd. strengthens the upstream case with scandium and critical minerals, while primes like General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin drive downstream demand. IBC sits right in the middle—processing, alloying, and potentially scaling into higher-value forms. That’s not a side position in the supply chain—that’s the choke point layer the government is actively trying to expand!

Bottom line: the $7M extension isn’t the story**—it’s the setup.** IBC is stabilizing operations, aligning with federal priorities, and positioning itself inside a rapidly expanding defense supply chain. ***If additional capital—whether through Title III, IBAS, strategic partners, or otherwise enters the picture, it won’t feel like a surprise… it’ll feel like the next step in a plan that’s already underway.

Don't miss the boat!....

What really seals the picture is Mark Smith openly stating IBC is “in talks with the U.S. Department of Defense” while simultaneously advancing aluminum-scandium alloys alongside NioCorp Developments Ltd.

That’s not coincidence, that’s vertical integration taking shape in real time. You’ve got upstream critical minerals, domestic alloying capability, and existing naval supply chain exposure all converging just as Washington is prioritizing exactly those gaps.

If that dialogue converts into funding or program alignment, IBC doesn’t just participate—it becomes part of a strategic, end-to-end U.S. materials pipeline. That’s the shift: from niche supplier to integrated defense metallurgy node & that’s where things can move fast!

"Don't miss the boat!"

Chico

April 30th, 2026~America shot its arsenal empty in 2 wars. Now it needs Beijing’s permission to reload

America shot its arsenal empty in 2 wars. Now it needs Beijing’s permission to reload

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On Wednesday, the Trump administration finally let the cat out of the bag that Operation Epic Fury, America’s war on Iran, has burned through $25 billion so far. But that is just the tip of the iceberg. The White House has already requested a supplemental budget of $200 billion for its war on Iran.
The inventory math is brutal. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds that in Iran alone, the United States burned through 45% of its Precision Strike Missile stockpile, half of its THAAD interceptors, nearly half of its Patriot PAC-3 inventory, roughly 30% of its Tomahawks, and more than 20% of its long-range JASSMs.

That is just one war. Add Ukraine, where, since 2022, the United States has shipped roughly one-third of its Javelin inventory, one-quarter of its Stinger stockpile, more than two million 155mm artillery rounds, and thousands of GMLRS rockets. The combined drain is what the Pentagon’s own internal assessments now describe as a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition.

The fact that the weapons cupboard is bare is one thing. What is rarely reported is the fact that it will not be restocked without Beijing’s approval.

Four Weapons, Four Periodic-Table Problems

Leave Ukraine aside. Forget the Javelins, the Stingers, the GMLRS rockets, and the two million artillery rounds that were used in Ukraine. Setting Ukraine aside, consider four weapons that the United States just burned through in Iran, and the critical material required for each — which flows almost exclusively through China.

Tomahawk cruise missile. The United States burned through over 1,000 Tomahawks in Iran — ten years’ worth of production. Each one’s fin actuators run on samarium-cobalt magnets. China mines and refines 99% of the world’s samarium and placed it under export licensing on April 4, 2025. To rebuild the inventory, Raytheon must turn to Beijing for samarium.

Patriot PAC-3 interceptor. The seeker uses samarium-cobalt (SmCo) to slew its guidance head; the radar’s traveling-wave tubes use SmCo to focus the microwave beam; yttrium-iron-garnet phase shifters tune the array. Replenishing the 1,200-plus interceptors expended in Iran requires roughly 1.2 to 2.4 tons of high-temperature SmCo, plus yttrium oxide. Between 2020 and 2023, China supplied 93% of U.S. yttrium imports.

JASSM-ER stealth cruise missile. The fin servos and seeker run on neodymium-iron-boron magnets (NdFB) doped with dysprosium and terbium for thermal stability. Strip out the heavy rare earths, and the magnet demagnetizes in flight. Roughly 1,100 missiles expended translates to between 1.5 and 3 tons of NdFeB feedstock. China refines the vast majority of the world’s dysprosium and terbium.

F-35 Lightning II. For a decade, the Department of Defense itself has repeated that each F-35 contains 920 pounds of rare earths. The strategically critical content is the high-temperature SmCo and dysprosium-doped NdFeB in the engine actuators, electric drives, and radar. These are precisely the materials Beijing has placed under license.

Across these four weapon systems, the back-of-the-envelope replenishment requirement is between five and ten metric tons of finished defense-grade rare earth magnets, more than 95% of which will arrive from the People’s Republic of China.

Beijing’s Hand

China holds all the cards and knows how to play them. Gallium and germanium controls came in August 2023. Antimony controls came in August 2024, with a full ban of shipments to the United States in December 2024. As a result, antimony prices surged by 134%. Tungsten restrictions were imposed in February 2025; the price skyrocketed by over 557% per metric ton. Then MOFCOM Announcement No. 18 of April 4, 2025, placed seven medium and heavy rare earths under discretionary licensing. Chinese rare-earth magnet exports were curtailed by 74% the following month. In October 2025, Beijing extended the regime extraterritorially to any product, anywhere in the world, containing as little as 0.1% of Chinese-origin rare earths.

Trump in Beijing

This brings us to May 14, 2026, when President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Not surprisingly, critical materials sit at the top of the meeting’s agenda. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated in early April that the goal of the meeting is “to ensure we can continue to get rare earths from the Chinese.”

There is only one thing worse than being unprepared for the war you started. It is being unprepared for the next one, because your adversary controls the periodic table.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune*.*

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April 30th, 2026~US Critical Mineral Inventory Plan: Why It’s Buying China Metals

US Critical Mineral Plan: Why It Buys China Metals

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The Supply Chain Paradox Behind America's Most Ambitious Minerals Program

When governments attempt to reduce dependence on a rival's resources, the textbook playbook calls for immediate decoupling. But commodity markets do not operate on political timelines. Decades of deliberate infrastructure investment, technological specialization, and vertical integration cannot be unwound through policy declarations alone. The tension between geopolitical intent and supply chain reality sits at the core of the US critical mineral inventory plan, and understanding it requires looking beyond the headlines to examine how global mineral supply chains actually function.

Critical mineral processing is not simply a matter of mining rock and shipping it. The transformation of raw ore into battery-grade lithium carbonate, separated rare earth oxides, or semiconductor-quality gallium requires highly specialized metallurgical infrastructure built over decades. This is precisely why a country can announce resource independence as a policy goal while simultaneously purchasing the very materials it aims to stop importing. The gap between aspiration and execution defines the opening phase of Project Vault.

What Project Vault Actually Is, and Why It Matters Now

Project Vault is a $12 billion public-private stockpiling program administered by the US Export-Import Bank, designed to build a commercial buffer against critical mineral supply disruptions while simultaneously sending long-term demand signals to domestic and allied-nation producers. The program was first revealed in February 2026, and the most detailed public discussion of its structure emerged in late April 2026 at a packed conference session in Washington DC, where Ex-Im Bank chief banking officer Brian Greeley appeared alongside executives from commodity trading houses Glencore Plc and Hartree Partners LP.

The financial architecture of the program combines two capital streams:

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This design philosophy reflects a recognition that centralised commodity procurement tends to fail in opaque markets. A single large buyer broadcasting demand into a thin market can trigger immediate price dislocations, front-running, and supply hoarding. By assigning procurement to traders with established relationships in specific mineral sectors, the program attempts to preserve pricing discipline while building inventory at scale.

The Storage Infrastructure Evolution

The physical storage system is planned across three development phases:

1. Near-term: Leverage existing warehouse networks already controlled by trading partners, prioritising inventory speed over infrastructure ownership
2. Medium-term: Develop dedicated storage facilities through construction or long-term leasing arrangements
3. Mature state: A hybrid network combining proprietary government-affiliated sites with specialist third-party facilities, tailored to the unique handling requirements of individual minerals

Certain minerals require specialised storage conditions. Lithium compounds are reactive with moisture, some rare earth materials require controlled oxidation environments, and radioactive byproducts from rare earth processing need licensed handling. These technical realities mean that a single warehouse model cannot serve all 60 minerals under consideration.

Why the US Critical Mineral Inventory Plan Includes Buying China Metals

The confirmation that the US critical mineral inventory plan includes buying China metals during its initial phase has drawn significant attention, but framing this as a contradiction misreads the program's logic. The initial stockpile fill is, as confirmed at the April 2026 Washington DC panel, driven primarily by availability. For a meaningful subset of the roughly 60 minerals under consideration, Chinese-linked supply chains represent the only scalable source in the near term, regardless of policy preference.

Furthermore, this reality sits within a broader context shaped by China's rare earth restrictions, which have progressively tightened the available supply outside Chinese-controlled channels. This is not a minor administrative detail — it is the structural constraint that defines the program's near-term sourcing strategy.

China's dominance in critical minerals is not primarily about where deposits are located. It is about where processing and refining infrastructure has been built, which is overwhelmingly in China. This distinction matters enormously for understanding why sourcing alternatives requires years, not months, to develop.

Consider the processing chain for rare earth elements. Ore deposits exist across Australia, the United States, Canada, and parts of Africa. However, converting rare earth concentrate into separated, individual lanthanide oxides requires solvent extraction technology, trained metallurgical teams, and environmental management systems that took China decades to develop at commercial scale. Building equivalent capacity elsewhere is a multi-year capital project measured in hundreds of millions of dollars per facility. The complexity of rare earth supply chains underscores precisely why this transition cannot happen overnight.

The same logic applies across several mineral categories:

• Cobalt: The Democratic Republic of Congo produces the majority of global cobalt ore, but primary processing and refining occurs predominantly in China, creating a supply chain intermediary dependency that cannot be bypassed without new refinery construction
• Gallium and Germanium: China holds a near-monopoly on production of both materials, with export controls introduced in 2023 and progressively tightened through 2025–2026, directly constraining semiconductor and fibre optic supply chains
• Bismuth: China is the primary global producer, with limited viable alternative sources at commercial scale
• Tungsten: Prices of ammonium paratungstate, the primary traded form of tungsten, surged more than 200% since the start of 2026, driven by Chinese export restrictions combined with accelerating military demand (Mining.com, April 29, 2026)

The tungsten price movement is particularly instructive. A single commodity experiencing a 200%+ price increase within months illustrates exactly what supply concentration risk looks like in practice: not a theoretical concern modelled in policy papers, but an immediate, quantifiable cost event with real consequences for manufacturers dependent on the material.

The Tiered Sourcing Waterfall: How Procurement Priority Works

Project Vault operates on a tiered procurement hierarchy that governs how and where materials are sourced as the program matures. This framework, described as a sourcing waterfall by panelists at the April 2026 briefing, functions as follows:

1. Tier 1 – Domestic US Production: Given highest procurement preference, even when domestic supply costs more than equivalent material from allied nations. Participating manufacturers accept this cost premium as a condition of program membership.
2. Tier 2 – Allied and Partner Nations: Countries aligned with US trade and security frameworks, evaluated based on diplomatic relationships and supply chain risk assessments.
3. Tier 3 – All Other Sources Including China: Used only where no viable alternative supply exists, primarily during the initial stockpile build phase.

The cost premium acceptance requirement for domestic sourcing is a notable design feature. It creates a structural incentive for US producers that goes beyond simple market competition. Domestic miners and processors can secure demand commitments even when their costs are higher than international competitors, provided they can demonstrate supply reliability.

This functions as an implicit offtake signal: the program's long-term purchasing commitments give US-based producers the revenue visibility needed to justify capital expenditure on new mines, processing facilities, and refining infrastructure. Without this demand certainty, financing new critical mineral projects remains difficult regardless of resource quality. In addition, the broader critical minerals executive order framework has reinforced this domestic preference by establishing regulatory pathways that support faster permitting for qualifying projects.

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The April 2026 announcement of producer-level fines for rare earth quota breaches represents a qualitative escalation in China's enforcement posture. Previous controls focused on export licensing; the shift toward production-level enforcement and financial penalties for quota violations signals that Beijing is tightening supply management at the source, not merely at the border (Mining.com, April 29, 2026).

The strategic dynamic this creates is self-reinforcing: the more aggressively the US builds alternative supply chains, the greater China's incentive to accelerate export controls to extract maximum geopolitical leverage while it still holds dominant processing positions. Project Vault's initial China-inclusive sourcing phase can be understood as buying time against this escalation cycle.

Allied Nation Supply Networks: Building the Alternative Pipeline

The long-term success of Project Vault depends on whether allied nations can develop the processing and refining capacity to replace Chinese supply at meaningful volumes. Several countries have been identified as viable alternative sources across specific mineral categories:

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Japan's inclusion in bilateral germanium agreements is strategically significant. Germanium is one of the minerals where China holds the most concentrated production position, and establishing alternative supply flows, even at limited volumes, creates price competition pressure and reduces single-source dependency.

Is Allied Supply Capacity Sufficient?

The honest answer, for now, is no — but the trajectory matters more than the current state. The critical minerals demand surge projections show that allied nations must dramatically accelerate processing infrastructure investment simply to keep pace with growing consumption, let alone displace Chinese supply. Project Vault's demand signals are designed to catalyse exactly this kind of investment, providing revenue certainty that can unlock otherwise stalled capital decisions.

The Specialist Trader Matching Model: A Critical Design Feature

One of the least discussed but most consequential aspects of Project Vault is the deliberate decision to match procurement to specialist trading firms rather than using open bidding processes. This design choice reflects sophisticated understanding of how illiquid commodity markets actually function.

In thin markets, a single large buyer announcing significant demand can trigger immediate responses: competing buyers accelerate purchasing, sellers hold inventory awaiting higher prices, and prices move dramatically before meaningful supply is secured. For materials like cobalt, heavy rare earths, and specialty bismuth compounds, where annual traded volumes are measured in thousands of tonnes rather than millions, a single large procurement program could materially distort market dynamics.

By routing procurement through firms with established long-term relationships in specific mineral sectors, Project Vault aims to access supply through existing commercial relationships rather than through price signals that broadcast demand to the entire market. Traders with deep cobalt networks can access DRC supply through established channels. Rare earth specialists can navigate the complex Chinese processing ecosystem during the initial phase without triggering public market reactions.

This approach also addresses a less obvious challenge: many critical minerals are not traded on transparent exchanges. Pricing is often negotiated bilaterally, with limited public price discovery. Specialist traders with market expertise are better positioned to evaluate fair value and execute efficiently than government procurement officers operating in markets they may not fully understand. For a detailed breakdown of how this program has been reported on, the full US critical mineral inventory analysis at Mining.com provides additional context on the program's structure and market implications.

April 30th, 2026~ Trump’s mineral reserve plans to buy rare earths from China

Trump’s mineral reserve plans to buy rare earths from China - MINING.COM

Shelves of PrNd oxide, the primary final product produced at MP Materials. Credit: MP Materials

The US Export-Import Bank’s proposed stockpiling initiative would initially source critical minerals from anywhere in the world, including China, an official involved in the project has revealed.

The $12 billion Project Vault would later shift to a replenishment model that prioritizes domestic production first, followed by allied nations and other sources as a last resort, executives including Ex-Im chief banking officer Brian Greeley said Wednesday unveiling some of the first details publicly announced on the project. Greeley spoke alongside representatives of Glencore Plc and Hartree Partners LP, which will be among trading houses procuring materials for Vault.

The project aims to build an immediate buffer against critical mineral supply shocks while using future purchases to send a stronger demand signal to US and friendly-nation producers.

Vault — which combines about $2 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Ex-Im loan — is President Donald Trump’s latest effort to build an alternative supply chain for the materials, which are key for the production of electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and other low-carbon technologies. China is the dominant supplier of critical minerals worldwide.

The recent panel was the most robust public discussion of Vault since Ex-Im revealed the program in February. For nearly three months, metals investors, traders and consumers have sought details as the government worked behind the scenes to flesh out the project.

Attendees packed a conference room at a hotel in Washington, DC, to get details on Vault’s sourcing hierarchy and payment structure. After brief introductory remarks, the panel unexpectedly opened up the floor to an almost hour-long question-and-answer session.

The program’s so-called waterfall would give preference to domestic suppliers even when their material comes at a premium to allied alternatives, with participating manufacturers expected to accept that trade-off as part of joining the program, panelists said.

The initial stockpile fill, however, would be driven chiefly by availability, reflecting the reality that some of the roughly 60 minerals under consideration are produced only in limited geographies and, in some cases, remain heavily influenced by China.

Vault is being structured as a demand-driven vehicle rather than a government-directed stockpile, according to panelists. Manufacturers would determine which minerals are stored, with the program then work with traders to secure supply. It’s designed to give US firms more leverage in opaque and fragmented markets where individual buyers often struggle to source smaller volumes efficiently or at transparent prices.

On storage, Greeley said the project will begin by relying on warehouse networks already controlled by trading partners and procurement providers. Over time, Vault is expected to develop its own storage network, either by building facilities or leasing them. A mature system could combine its own sites with third-party warehouses.

Panelists said the use of specialist traders would also be tailored to individual metals. Rather than sending orders into an open bidding process, Vault is expected to match procurement to firms with expertise in specific markets, allowing traders with relationships in cobalt, rare earths or other niche material sectors to handle those flows. The goal, panelists said, is to preserve pricing discipline, improve execution and avoid creating a scramble for hard-to-find materials.

(By Joe Deaux and James Attwood)

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

EXIM is already processing NioCorp's $800M loan.... \"let that sink in!\"

🔥 $6??? While the Pentagon Scrambles for Supply — NioCorp Sitting on a Strategic Goldmine (May 1, 2026 Update)

The headlines over the last 48 hours couldn’t be clearer: the U.S. defense machine is running hot & running low. Between Iran and Ukraine, stockpiles of missiles, interceptors, and precision weapons have been burned down at an alarming rate. And here’s the kicker: replenishment isn’t just a matter of money or manufacturing—it’s a matter of materials! Rare earths like dysprosium, terbium, samarium, and neodymium—along with critical alloying metals—are still overwhelmingly controlled by China. Even with Project Vault ramping up and initial stockpiling underway, the U.S. is effectively buying time, not solving the problem. The need for secure, domestic, scalable supply chains has officially moved from “important” to mission-critical.

That’s where NioCorp’s Elk Creek Project starts to look less like a mining story and more like infrastructure for national defense. You’re talking about six fully integrated critical mineral pathways—niobium, scandium, titanium, and the full magnet rare earth suite (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb)—all aligned with exactly the materials bottlenecking U.S. weapons systems and advanced manufacturing. And this isn’t theoretical anymore. Policy frameworks (FORGE, price floors, coordinated procurement), funding vehicles (EXIM, DPA, IBAS), and demand signals (Project Vault) are all converging to support projects that can actually deliver.

Now layer in the pending Traxys deal, and things get even more interesting. Traxys isn’t just a trader—they’re a global distribution engine already wired into defense, industrial, and specialty metals markets. If finalized, they effectively become the back-end commercializer of NioCorp’s production, quietly channeling materials into high-priority supply chains—potentially DFARS-compliant, U.S.-sourced, and ready for defense contractors who can’t afford sourcing risk. Combine that with ThyssenKrupp already locking in 50% of niobium, and you start to see a fully de-risked, pre-sold production profile taking shape.

Meanwhile, the timeline is tightening fast. Portal construction has been underway since March 2026, with dual portals expected to wrap around September. The DFS is now pending any day through June, and the EXIM ~$800M FID—reportedly with JPMorgan involved is being targeted for mid-2026. That sequence matters. If financing lands as expected, the transition from development to full construction could be immediate. That’s not years away—that’s a live runway forming right now toward potential production by 2029, possibly sooner depending on execution.

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

And don’t overlook scandium and aluminum-scandium (ScAl) alloys here. This is a material class with massive upside—lighter, stronger, corrosion-resistant, and ideal for aerospace, defense, and next-gen manufacturing. Jim Sims has already confirmed activity across multiple nodes, not just isolated R&D. With rising interest from defense primes and advanced manufacturing players, ScAl could evolve from a niche alloy into a strategic performance material, especially as weight reduction and durability become critical across air, space, and autonomous systems.

So step back and look at the full picture: a geopolitical supply crunch, a U.S. government shifting to aggressive intervention (stockpiling, financing, price support), and a single domestic project aligned across all major critical mineral categories—with financing, offtake, and infrastructure all lining up. And the market is still pricing this at ~$6/share?

At some point, the disconnect between strategic reality and market valuation closes.

As Mark Smith put it: this is a “National Strategic Asset.” ****And as Jim Sims made clear—this isn’t one pathway… it’s all of them, moving in parallel.***

The only question left isn’t if—it’s how fast the rest of the market catches up.

If NioCorp is lining up 100% of its production for a decade, then the biggest risk—who buys it—is gone. With Thyssenkrupp in place and Traxys likely covering the rest, this is exactly what the Export-Import Bank of the United States is built for & exactly what the U.S. needs to secure its supply chain!

You must ask yourself: Can the U.S. afford to go without what NioCorp is positioned to deliver? Look at the battlefield math, the supply chain choke points, and the policy response—then answer that honestly!

When missiles, interceptors, aircraft, and next-gen systems all trace back to the same handful of constrained materials—and those materials are overwhelmingly controlled by a strategic rival. ***Projects like Elk Creek stop being “nice to have” and become essential infrastructure. Six aligned critical mineral pathways, domestic sourcing, vertically integrated potential, and demand signals already forming through defense, industry, and government programs… and it’s still sitting at ~$6?

That’s not just a disconnect—that’s a market asleep at the wheel. If this truly is, as Mark Smith says, a “National Strategic Asset,” then the real question isn’t valuation today—it’s how violently that valuation corrects when the market finally realizes the U.S. can’t execute its future without it.

"All Aboard!"

Waiting with many...

Chico

April 29th, 2026~From Oil To Critical Minerals: The Next Energy Security Risk

From Oil To Critical Minerals: The Next Energy Security Risk

CHONGQING, CHINA - JULY 26: In this photo illustration, metal cubes representing rare earth elements including Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr), Dysprosium (Dy), Terbium (Tb), and othersare displayed with their symbols and atomic numbers on overlapping flags of the United States and China on July 26, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)... MoreGetty Images

When tensions in the Middle East escalated this spring, the Strait of Hormuz turned into a focal point of global concern. Oil prices surged, markets tightened. Governments scrambled to assess exposure.

Roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade passes through this narrow corridor. Any disruption would be felt instantly across the global economy. So much so that the International Energy Agency (IEA) described the situation as the “greatest global energy security challenge in history.”^(1)

For many, this only reinforces the case for accelerating the clean energy transition.

Renewable energy sources are largely independent of fuel price fluctuations, offering a more stable and lower-cost base. Countries with higher shares of clean electricity and electrified end uses are already proving more resilient to current fuel price shocks.

A MarineTraffic map showing ship movements in the Strait of Hormuz is pictured through a magnifying glass in this photo illustration, as commercial vessel traffic through the key oil shipping lane drops sharply amid the escalating conflict involving Iran. Taken in Brussels, Belgium, on March 15, 2026. (Photo by Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Clean Energy Still Depends on Global Supply Chains

Chokepoints like Hormuz are not just affecting fossil fuel flows. They also disrupt the industrial inputs needed to build clean technologies.

Nearly half of global seaborne sulfur trade passes through the Strait, with sulfur playing a critical role in processing nickel and cobalt for EV batteries. At the same time, supply constraints are affecting aluminum – around 9% of global production originates in the Middle East – which is widely used across renewable infrastructure, as well as graphite feedstocks essential for battery anodes. ^(3)

As electrification accelerates, so does demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements. The IEA estimates that demand for these materials could more than triple by 2040.

TO GO WITH China-Japan-technology-commodities FOCUS by D'Arcy Doran In a picture taken on September 5, 2010 a man driving a front loader shifts soil containing rare earth minerals to be loaded at a port in Lianyungang, east China's Jiangsu province, for export to Japan. China's restrictions on exports of rare earths are aimed at maximising profit, strengthening its homegrown high-tech companies and forcing other nations to help sustain global supply, experts say. China last year produced 97 percent of the global supply of rare earths — a group of 17 elements used in high-tech products ranging from flat-screen televisions to iPods to hybrid cars — but is home to just a third of reserves. CHINA OUT AFP PHOTO (Photo credit should read STR/AFP via Getty Images)

A More Concentrated, Less Visible Risk

These supply chains are among the most geographically concentrated of any global industry.

In many cases, a small number of countries dominate not only extraction, but processing and refining. China, in particular, has spent decades building a strategic position across these value chains. Today, it accounts for around 60% of global rare earth mining and as much as 90% of processing capacity. In some downstream segments, its dominance is even more pronounced: around 95% of global permanent magnets are produced in China, up from roughly 50% just two decades ago.^(4)

***In other words, the transition does not eliminate dependency – it redistributes it. From oil to minerals.***

Circularity Can Reduce Pressure

If the transition is becoming more material-intensive, reducing pressure on primary supply becomes critical. One of the most immediate levers is circularity.

Recycling and reusing materials already in circulation can significantly reduce reliance on new extraction, potentially lowering primary demand for critical minerals by up to 35% by 2035.

Current recycling rates remain far below their potential. For key materials such as nickel, copper and aluminum, they stand at around 40%, despite technical potential exceeding 90%. Unlocking this gap will depend on innovations, both to increase recovery rates and to make recycling processes more efficient and economically viable.

Recovered materials – from batteries, industrial waste and end-of-life technologies – can form a secondary supply base that is more localized and less exposed to geopolitical disruption.

As argued previously, circularity can reduce geopolitical risk by lowering exposure to volatile global supply chains without changing underlying material demand.

But circularity does not fundamentally change what the system depends on.

Alternative and Advanced Materials: Reducing Dependency At The Source

This is where innovation in materials and chemistry becomes strategic.

New battery technologies are already reducing reliance on scarce inputs such as cobalt and nickel. At the same time, alternative materials – from advanced carbon-based compounds to bio-based inputs – are beginning to reshape supply chains at their core.

In some cases, substitution is moving from concept to reality. Graphene-based materials are being explored as alternatives to traditional battery components, while nanocoating and new electrolysis technologies are reducing dependence on scarce metals such as iridium or platinum. Biological materials like lignin are also entering the equation, opening new avenues for material innovation rooted in abundant, renewable sources.

This is also where a new wave of startups is translating advances in chemistry into industrial applications. Sublime Systems, for example, is rethinking cement production by redesigning the process around more abundant feedstocks and simpler supply chains, while also co-producing critical minerals. Others are targeting strategic materials more directly: Kore Metals* is developing electrolysis-based processes to produce high-purity silicon from abundant silica, pointing to a more localized and resilient supply chain.

For regions with limited domestic resources, like Europe, this represents a strategic opportunity. Competing on raw material extraction will remain challenging, but competing on substitution, efficiency and advanced materials offers a different pathway to resilience.

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 04: US Vice President JD Vance speaks at the first Critical Minerals Ministerial in the Loy Henderson Conference Room at the State Department's Harry S. Truman Building on February 04, 2026 in Washington, DC. About 50 countries attended the ministerial, a gathering to discuss the creation of tech supply chain partnerships that can bypass China. The United States has been looking for alternative sources for rare earth minerals since Beijing cut the U.S. off from its supply last year. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)... MoreGetty Images

Policy Is Starting to Catch Up

Governments are increasingly treating access to critical materials as a strategic issue.

In the United States, measures such as the Inflation Reduction Act have already started to reshape supply chains by incentivizing domestic production and allied sourcing of critical minerals. While recent changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act have weakened some incentives^(5), newer initiatives, such as establishing a national raw materials reserve, point in the same direction: critical materials are increasingly seen as essential to national security and industrial resilience.

Europe is pursuing a parallel, though more complex, approach. Through the Critical Raw Materials Act and related initiatives, the European Union is seeking to reduce strategic dependencies by scaling domestic production, strengthening partnerships with resource-rich countries and building mechanisms for joint procurement and stockpiling.^(6) These efforts are also tied to broader ambitions to increase recycling and processing capacity within Europe itself.

18 September 2024, Saxony-Anhalt, Bitterfeld-Wolfen: An AMG Critical Materials employee works in the production plant of the lithium hydroxide refinery in Bitterfeld-Wolfen. AMG is commissioning Europe's first lithium refinery here. Up to 20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide will be produced here for e-car batteries in the future. The company estimates its own investment costs at 140 million euros, with 5.5 million euros also coming from regional economic development funds. In Bitterfeld, 80 jobs have been created in the first module. Customers for the lithium hydroxide are cathode and cell manufacturers of batteries in Hungary and Poland. Photo: Hendrik Schmidt/dpa (Photo by Hendrik Schmidt/picture alliance via Getty Images)... Moredpa/picture alliance via Getty Images

Execution Still Lags

Delivery, however, continues to lag behind demand.

Diversification is progressing, but too slowly. Planned projects outside dominant producers are expected to cover only a limited share of future demand – especially in refining and downstream manufacturing, where gaps are most pronounced.^(7) In other words, the parts of the value chain that matter most strategically are also the hardest to rebalance.

New supply is also much harder to build than policy frameworks suggest. Higher costs, long permitting timelines and structural investment uncertainty continue to delay projects, while development cycles often span more than a decade.^(8 9)

This is why ambition alone will not be enough. Closing these gaps will require sustained capital, faster permitting, industrial coordination and a longer-term approach to building resilience across the full value chain – from extraction and refining to recycling, advanced materials and substitution.

Critical battery mineral ores, copper, graphite, nickel, lithium, manganese. Reflection in mirror. Symmetry. Mine, mining. Industry, finance and businessgetty

The Next Phase Of Energy Security

The events around the Strait of Hormuz have once again exposed how vulnerable global energy systems remain to geopolitical shocks.

But they also point to a broader shift that is still not fully understood.

As the world moves away from fossil fuels, it is not moving away from dependency. With the global economy electrifying, risk is shifting from oil fields and shipping lanes to mines, refineries and material processing hubs.

That changes the logic of energy security. In the next phase of the transition, resilience will not be defined only by how much clean power a country can generate, but by whether it can secure the materials, processing capacity and substitute technologies that make electrification possible in the first place.

Countries that recognize this shift early, and act on it, will be best positioned to lead in the clean energy economy. Not simply by building more wind turbines or electric vehicles, but by ensuring that the supply chains behind them are more resilient, diversified and, increasingly, circular.

Otherwise, the next global energy security crisis will not be about oil but about minerals.****

A few reads with your morning coffee...

April 28th, 2029~U.S. Steel to build $2B advanced ironmaking plant in Arkansas

The initiative is part of Nippon Steel’s broader investment into its acquisition planned by 2029

U.S. Steel to build $2B advanced ironmaking plant in Arkansas

A worker at U.S. Steel's Big River facility in Arkansas stands next to an electric arc furnace. (Courtesy of U.S. Steel).

U.S. Steel’s Big River complex in Arkansas is getting a nearly $2 billion advanced ironmaking facility, the Pittsburgh-based company announced Wednesday.

The plant will use the direct reduction method to purify iron ore from U.S. Steel’s Minnesota mines. Iron is traditionally smelted in blast furnaces fueled by coke. This newer technology involves passing hot gases, in this case methane, over the ore to remove oxygen, leaving behind a porous “sponge iron.”

The iron will then be fed into Big River’s four electric arc furnaces to produce steel. U.S. Steel says the operation will be the first in the country to move direct reduced iron into furnaces while it’s still at high temperatures.

Construction is expected to start right away and take about 2½ years.

Big River is the “natural home” for the direct reduced iron plant, said Amanda Malkowski, a spokeswoman for U.S. Steel, because it contains a majority of the company’s electric arc furnaces.

U.S. Steel’s Mon Valley Works in Southwestern Pennsylvania and Gary Works in Indiana strictly use blast furnaces, producing nearly 6 million tons a year of specialized steel for automobiles and other products that can’t be made with electric arc furnaces, according to Malkowski.

United Steelworkers represents employees at the Mon Valley Works and Gary Works, but not at Big River, where no union has taken hold. Bernie Hall, the union’s Pennsylvania director, expressed disapproval of the Big River plans.

“We’re disappointed that (U.S. Steel) continues to prioritize its Big River complex, allocating nearly $2 billion that could be invested in ensuring its existing facilities continue producing world-class steel,” he said in a statement. “Moving forward, we urge management to demonstrate this same kind of commitment to the long-term future of these operations and the surrounding communities that have supported the company for 125 years.”

The direct reduced iron facility is a piece of the $11 billion in investments that Nippon Steel, the Japanese steelmaker that bought U.S. Steel last year, plans for its new holdings by 2029. This money is allowing the Big River investment to happen “years sooner than would have otherwise been possible,” U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt said in a statement.

Responding to Hall’s criticism, Malkowski noted U.S. Steel has announced two major projects at the Mon Valley Works “that will protect and create jobs while producing higher-quality steel more efficiently.”

Nippon is sinking $100 million into a new slag recycler at the Edgar Thomson Works, the 151-year-old steel plant in Braddock and North Braddock. The Allegheny County Health Department granted a critical air quality permit for the project in February.

The plant is also slated to receive a new hot strip mill that will cost at least $1 billion to build.

A total of $2.4 billion will go toward the Mon Valley Works. U.S. Steel has yet to announce how the remaining Mon Valley Works money will be spent.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

EXIM is already processing NioCorp's $800M loan.... \"let that sink in!\"

⛓️ 2029 Collision Course: U.S. Steel Demand Meets NioCorp Supply — Niobium’s Moment Arrives⛓️

This is one of those timing alignments that’s hard to ignore. The new advanced ironmaking facility from United States Steel Corporation—backed by Nippon Steel—is targeting startup right around 2029, using direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric arc furnaces to produce higher-quality, lower-emission steel. That process shift matters, because it increases demand for high-performance alloying inputs to achieve strength, durability, and specialized applications—exactly where niobium comes into play.

Now line that up with NioCorp Developments Ltd.. Elk Creek is targeting production in that same 2029 window (pending financing), with niobium as a primary revenue driver alongside scandium, titanium, and rare earths. Niobium is widely used in advanced steels to improve strength, reduce weight, and enhance weldability—critical attributes for automotive, infrastructure, and energy applications that DRI/EAF steelmaking is increasingly geared toward. In other words, you’ve got new U.S. steel capacity coming online just as a potential domestic niobium source comes online.

Niobium- the quiet GIANT....

Layer in the broader setup: a pending commercial relationship with Traxys to help distribute production, a DFS expected soon, and a potential EXIM-backed Final Investment Decision in mid-2026 supported by institutions like Export-Import Bank of the United States. With dual portal construction already underway and tracking toward completion around September 2026 (per Mark A. Smith), the sequencing is clear—finance → full construction → production ramp into a tightening domestic supply environment.

And it’s not just niobium. The “six pathways” approach means Elk Creek would also supply scandium (and ScAl alloys), titanium, and magnet rare earths—materials increasingly tied to advanced manufacturing, defense systems, and electrification. While the steel plant highlights the niobium angle specifically, the bigger picture is a multi-material supply chain feeding multiple industrial expansions happening at the same time.

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

Bottom line: if these timelines hold, you’re looking at new U.S. industrial demand (steel, infrastructure, manufacturing) intersecting with new U.S. critical mineral supply coming online in parallel. Add policy support, financing momentum, and distribution channels—and it starts to look less like coincidence and more like coordinated industrial rebuilding.

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

2029 stops being a projection and starts looking like an inflection point. As new U.S. steel capacity coming online just as domestic critical mineral supply arrives to feed it. With financing pathways advancing, distribution lining up, and construction already in motion, NioCorp Developments Ltd. is positioning itself to meet real, onshore demand at scale. As Mark Smith has said, Elk Creek is a “National Strategic Asset”!

When assets like that intersect with a rebuilding industrial base, they don’t sit idle… they get pulled straight into the core of it. 🚂 "All Aboard!"

Waiting for more material news as it becomes available with many! (Oh & that dam DFS too!...Let's GOOooooo already!)

Chico

April 27th, 2026~China rare earth export pause nears expiry amid persistent supply concentration

Global supply gaps persist ahead of China rare earth export controls deadline

China rare earth export pause nears expiry

Chemical elements table showing various elements. Credit: NMK-Studio via Shutterstock.com.

The 12-month suspension of China’s expanded rare earth export controls is set to expire on 10 November 2026, with current supply conditions indicating limited progress in reducing global dependence, according to analysis from EBC Financial Group. Six months into the pause, available data “does not suggest readiness”, the firm stated, pointing to continued concentration across mining, processing and downstream manufacturing.

The October 2025 measures – which expanded the list of controlled elements and introduced extraterritorial provisions – were suspended for one year. However, earlier controls introduced in April 2025 remain in force, requiring case-by-case export licences for seven medium and heavy rare earth elements, including dysprosium and yttrium.

According to the US-based think tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the suspension “pauses some hostile trade actions” while leaving core restrictions intact.

Data from GlobalData’s Global Rare Earths Mining (2026 Review), indicates that supply remains structurally concentrated. Global rare earth mine production reached an estimated 390kt rare-earth-oxide (REO) equivalent in 2025, with China accounting for 270kt, or 69.2% of output.

The report also notes that China processes “up to 90%” of global rare earths, reinforcing its position beyond upstream mining.

Outside China, production remains comparatively limited. The United States accounted for 13.1% of global output in 2025, while Australia contributed 7.4%, according to GlobalData.

Global reserves stood at 85 million tonnes as of January 2026, with China, Brazil, Australia, Russia and Vietnam holding a combined 78.6 million tonnes, highlighting the geographic concentration of resources.

The processing stage remains the principal bottleneck. While multiple countries mine rare earths, most material continues to be refined in China before entering downstream supply chains.

The suspension period was intended to support the development of alternative supply capacity. However, projections from Bloomberg Intelligence indicate that supply growth outside China will remain insufficient to meet demand.

Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts a 4.4-fold increase in non-Chinese neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production between 2024 and 2030, but still projects a 36% global shortfall by 2030 as demand grows at around 7% annually.

GlobalData’s February report also points to rising demand driven by energy transition technologies. Rare earth demand is projected to increase from 91kt in 2024 to 178kt by 2050, with electric vehicles and wind energy accounting for a growing share of consumption.

In 2025, China exported approximately 62.5kt of rare earths, underlining its continued role as the primary supplier to global markets despite tightening policy controls.

Industry capacity outside China remains under development. In the United States, MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are advancing domestic mining and processing, while Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources are expanding refining capability.

However, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “no single country” currently has the financial or technical capacity to replicate China’s integrated supply chain.

Three potential policy outcomes are identified ahead of the November deadline: an extension of the suspension, selective reinstatement of controls targeting specific elements or end uses, and full reimposition of the October 2025 measures.

Selective reinstatement could be implemented through the existing licensing framework, while full reimposition – including extraterritorial provisions – would affect downstream industries across automotive, defence and energy sectors.

China’s export control approach mirrors mechanisms used in semiconductor trade policy, extending jurisdiction to products manufactured outside its borders but containing controlled materials.

Despite ongoing investment, GlobalData notes that diversification remains “gradual and capital-intensive”, with China expected to retain a dominant position in processing and magnet manufacturing through the decade.

The November 2026 deadline is now less than seven months away, with China’s licensing infrastructure suspended rather than removed and key controls still active.

Quick post with...A few reads with Coffee~~!

April 2026~Breaking the critical minerals chokepoint

Breaking the critical minerals chokepoint

https://preview.redd.it/u2zxqgqfnwxg1.png?width=1092&format=png&auto=webp&s=fddba5f45a3bb64ae8b7af36672b176748449f39

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

With the ~$800M EXIM FID being processed by the Export-Import Bank of the United States and JPMorganChase effectively structuring alongside it, you’re no longer looking at a hypothetical financing path—you’re looking at institutional-grade validation lining up behind NioCorp Developments Ltd.. Pair that with the pending Traxys relationship, the imminent DFS, and construction already in motion, and the sequence becomes hard to ignore. These aren’t isolated developments—they’re coordinated signals across policy, capital, and supply chain. At some point, it stops being about connecting dots… and starts being about realizing the picture is already drawn.

🚨 Critical Minerals Endgame? China Clock Ticking, JPMorgan Involved, and Elk Creek Sitting at ~$6 🚨

We’re now less than seven months away from China’s rare earth export control pause expiring in November 2026—and the data is crystal clear: nothing structurally has changed. China still controls ~70% of mining and up to 90% of processing. Even with aggressive Western investment, Bloomberg Intelligence is still projecting a 36% NdPr shortfall by 2030. The JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics just reinforced it—this is no longer an industrial issue, it’s a national security priority, and the next phase isn’t about projects… it’s about scaling real supply chains that actually work.

That’s where NioCorp Developments Ltd. starts to stand out in a big way. Elk Creek isn’t a one-trick pony—it’s six aligned pathways: niobium, scandium, titanium, and magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). These are the exact materials now being targeted by policy frameworks, defense budgets, and allied trade agreements. And unlike many early-stage concepts, this project is moving: DFS pending (possibly June), EXIM FID being telegraphed for mid-2026, and dual portal construction already underway and tracking toward completion around September per Mark Smith.

Now layer in the financing and commercial side. Export-Import Bank of the United States is actively engaged, with JPMorgan effectively “running shotgun” on structuring and execution toward a potential FID. At the same time, the pending relationship with Traxys introduces something most juniors don’t have—a ready-made global distribution engine. This isn’t just about selling product; it’s about plugging directly into established, defense-aligned supply chains that already understand compliance, logistics, and end-user demand.

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

And then there’s the wildcard that keeps getting overlooked: scandium and aluminum-scandium (ScAl) alloys. These materials can fundamentally change aerospace and defense manufacturing—lighter, stronger, more fatigue-resistant structures with real implications for aircraft range, payload, and lifecycle costs. With signals of interest tied to advanced manufacturing ecosystems—think Skunk Works-type applications under Lockheed Martin—and parallel efforts like Project FORGE and Project Vault pushing demand-side coordination and stockpiling, scandium isn’t just a niche anymore… it’s becoming strategic.

Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is tightening fast. The U.S. and allies are actively moving toward price floors, coordinated procurement, and stockpiling mechanisms to ensure projects like this can actually scale economically. That’s a direct response to decades of price suppression and market distortion. Translation: the environment that historically kept Western projects on the sidelines is now being rewritten in real time—and projects that are shovel-ready or near-FID are in the pole position.

And yet… the stock is still sitting around ~$6.

At some point, the market has to reconcile that disconnect. You’ve got policy, capital, defense demand, and global supply risk all converging on the exact materials Elk Creek is built to produce. As Mark Smith has said, this is a “national strategic asset”—and if JPMorgan, EXIM, and global offtake channels are all circling at the same time the China clock is running out… this doesn’t look like speculation anymore. It looks like positioning before the rest of the world is forced to catch up. 🚂

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

At this point, the alignment is hard to ignore. With EXIM financing advancing alongside JPMorganChase, commercial pathways forming through Traxys, and Elk Creek moving steadily toward construction readiness, NioCorp Developments Ltd. is no longer operating in a vacuum—it’s moving in lockstep with national priorities. As Mark Smith has said, this is a “National Strategic Asset,” and as Jim Sims has emphasized, development across all **six mineral pathways** including scandium and ScAl alloys is actively advancing, not standing still! When leadership is signaling execution on multiple fronts at once, backed by real capital and real demand… that’s not a story being pitched—it’s one unfolding in real time.

"All aboard!" as we wait for more material news as it becomes available with many...

Chico

April 27th, 2026~EU and US launch strategic partnership on critical minerals

EU and US launch strategic partnership on critical minerals - The European Sting - Critical News & Insights on European Politics, Economy, Foreign Affairs, Business & Technology - europeansting.com European Union News -

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Today, the EU and US signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on a strategic partnership on critical minerals and agreed an EU-US Critical Minerals Action Plan. These initiatives reflect the EU’s commitment to deepen cooperation on critical raw materials. This is a key step in enhancing resilience and diversification of supply chains, amid shared geopolitical and economic challenges.

Signed today by Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Šefčovič and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington DC, the MoU formalises the EU-US strategic partnership to build secure, sustainable critical minerals supply chains. It foresees bilateral cooperation across the full value chain – spanning exploration, extraction, processing, refining, recycling and recovery, while supporting innovation, investment and geological mapping as well as supply- and demand-side measures.

Additionally, Commissioner Šefčovič and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer set out an Action Plan for Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience, which paves the way towards a possible plurilateral trade initiative with global partners.

Under the Action Plan, the EU and the US intend to work together to explore a broad range of trade policies and instruments to reinforce coordinated international action. These may include border-adjusted price floors, standards-based markets, price gap subsidies and offtake agreements. In addition, cooperation is expected to focus on the development of common standards for mining, processing and recycling; the promotion of investment; joint research and innovation; stockpiling strategies; and mechanisms for rapid response to supply disruptions.

Both sides plan to continue working on critical minerals resilience in relevant international fora, including the G7 and the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE).

Both, the MoU and the Action Plan follow up on shared commitments decided on at the Critical Minerals Ministerial meeting held in Washington DC on 4 February 2026, alongside Japan. Closer cooperation in the area of critical minerals is foreseen in the Joint Statement of 21 August 2025 between the EU and the US.

A few reads with your morning coffee...

April 26th, 2026~Magnets Are A Critical National Demand. Developing Rare Earths Is Key.

Magnets Are A Critical National Demand. Developing Rare Earths Is Key.

Neodymium is a magnetic chemical element that is part of the rare earth group used in magnets.getty

The U.S. government is offering companies $24 million to prototype and test projects that retrieve rare earth critical minerals from scrap materials to make into advanced magnets.

The grants are being offered in the first part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s “Critical Minerals and Materials Accelerator” funding notice. Applications are due June 25.

Rare earth minerals for use in magnets have been identified as being of particular interest by the U.S. government in collaborative industry projects to develop technologies in high-impact areas.

The idea is to foster a domestic supply chain for critical minerals that promotes national security while uplifting American industry.

Creating a Domestic Pipeline for Rare Earth Magnet Elements

The DOE explains in the funding offer that the grants are to create “a pipeline to support technology maturation to ultimately unlock private capital investments.”

The agency is particularly interested in promoting private industry backing to prototype the recovery of the following critical minerals from secondary sources of scrap.

Rare earth elements are essential in modern technology.getty

These magnet rare earth elements are:

• Neodymium,
• Praseodymium,
• Dysprosium, and
• Terbium.

High-strength magnets are made with neodymium and praseodymium. These can be found in wind turbines and electric vehicle motors.

Defense systems need magnets made with dysprosium and terbium to withstand high temperatures.

Other critical mineral projects sought in the initial grant offering include aluminum, cobalt, copper, electrical steel, gallium, germanium, nickel and silicon.

Extracting Rare Earth Elements From Scrap

These research and development grants also involve demonstrating the viability of projects. The magnet rare earth elements should be recovered and produced from:

• Postindustrial manufacturing scrap—i.e., from waste generated during refining other primary metal products or manufacturing components,
• Postconsumer scrap—especially electronic waste and electric drivetrains containing permanent magnet machines (motors or generators),
• Combinations of feedstocks—such as mine tailings (phosphoric acid sludge, red mud from bauxite) and tailings from metal mines (nickel, gold, copper and platinum).

The importance of critical minerals for rare earth magnets was outlined in a 2024 report to Congress outlining their importance for Department of Defense operations.

“These are frequently integrated into components (e.g., integrated circuits, electrical wiring, or optoelectronic devices) or structures (e.g., aircraft fuselages or ship hulls) of numerous military platforms and weapon systems,” the report stated.

“There are few, and, in some cases, no known alternatives for these materials, which often have unique physical properties (such as high material strength coupled with resistance to corrosion or low density).”

DOE expects to select from 10 to 14 projects. Individual grants will be awarded up to $2 million.

Rare Earth Magnet Ventures Fueling New Jobs

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott unveiled in February an expansion project by MP Materials Corp. to create a rare earth magnet manufacturing campus in Northlake. The project with a $1.25 billion capital investment is expected to add some 1,500 new jobs.

A semiconductor production process.getty

The state is providing a $53.4 million grant to enable the company to produce neodymium-iron-boron magnets that are critical semiconductor manufacturing components.

“We are advancing key objectives under our public-private partnership with the Department of War and accelerating America’s rare earth and magnet independence with an uncompromising focus on speed, execution, and delivery,” noted James Litinsky, MP Materials founder, chairman and CEO in media release issued by the governor’s office.

North Carolina’s Johnston County was selected by Vulcan Elements to expand its neodymium iron boron rare earth magnet production capacity. Gov. Josh Stein announced the venture last year.

“Along with semiconductors and batteries, rare earth magnets are critical components for almost all technologies that use motors, sensors, generators, or actuators–from hard disk drives, robotics, and drones to satellites, submarines, and nearly every defense system,” noted the governor’s office.

The project is being backed by a U.S. Office of Strategic Capital joint $700 million conditional loan commitment with Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies to bolster the U.S. supply chain for domestic magnet production.

In a related venture, United Rare Earths last year licensed two technologies from the DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The technologies will be used at a new spent magnet recycling and separation facility in Caryville, Tenn.

“These technologies support the creation of high-performance magnets engineered to use significantly less rare earth content,” according to ORNL.

Jeffrey Willis, United Rare Earths chairman, underscored the importance of critical minerals to national security.

April 2026~Department of War Fiscal Year 2027 Mandatory Budget Overview

DoW_FY2027_Mandatory_Budget_Overview_and_Dash1_FINAL.pdf

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Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project

Thanks for sharing Mr. N! NioCorp really covered alot of the \"STUFF\" that needs the Critical Minerals they will produce! Give a listen...if you haven't done so...

🚨 $48.7B U.S. Critical Minerals Shockwave — Is Elk Creek About to Go Strategic? 🚨

The FY2027 budget framework coming out of the U.S. Department of War isn’t subtle—it’s a full-scale industrial mobilization. Nearly $48.7 billion is being directed straight into critical minerals, spanning mining, processing, stockpiling, recycling, and full-spectrum defense supply chains. Between IBAS expansion, Defense Production Act funding, and a fully resourced National Defense Stockpile, the message is clear: the U.S. is no longer talking about supply chain security—it’s funding it at wartime scale.

And this isn’t happening in isolation. Layer in the U.S.-EU critical minerals Action Plan via the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and you now have coordinated Western policy aligning pricing mechanisms, offtakes, and long-term demand guarantees. Add programs like the Office of Strategic Capital and National Security Investment Fund, and you’re looking at hundreds of billions in potential capital flow aimed directly at chokepoints—critical minerals sitting at the base of every defense system listed in that budget.

Enter NioCorp Developments Ltd.. Elk Creek isn’t just one commodity—it’s six fully integrated pathways: niobium, scandium, titanium, and magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). These are explicitly the same categories being targeted for missiles, hypersonics, drones, AI infrastructure, microelectronics, and next-gen aircraft. From alloy systems to magnets to structural metals—this is the input layer for everything the DoD is scaling.

Now factor in the pending relationship with Traxys. This isn’t just about selling material—it’s about distribution into already-established, defense-compliant channels. Traxys operates as a global market bridge, meaning NioCorp doesn’t need to build a customer base from scratch. If this locks in, it effectively creates a ready-made pathway for U.S.-sourced, DFARS-aligned materials to flow directly into defense contractors and industrial buyers at scale—quietly, efficiently, and globally.

Timing is everything—and the pieces are lining up. With the DFS expected imminently, EXIM-backed financing being telegraphed for mid-2026, and construction already underway, the transition from development to production is no longer hypothetical. If funding closes, Elk Creek could move straight into full buildout with a target production window around 2029—or sooner depending on execution and parallel build strategies.

Bottom line: the U.S. just funded the demand side of the equation in a massive way. Policy, capital, and defense requirements are now converging on the exact materials NioCorp is positioned to supply. As Mark Smith has said, Elk Creek is a “National Strategic Asset”—and when assets like that align with national priorities, they don’t stay overlooked for long.

🚂 The demand is funded. The supply is lining up. The only question left… is who’s positioned before the switch flips. All aboard!

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

At this point, it’s no longer about connecting dots—it’s about recognizing what’s already been set in motion. With policy funding the demand, infrastructure moving forward, and commercial pathways like Traxys positioning distribution, NioCorp Developments Ltd. is stepping into alignment with something far bigger than a single project cycle.

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

Layer in the potential of scandium and aluminum-scandium (ScAl) alloys—materials capable of dramatically reducing weight while increasing strength, improving fuel efficiency, extending airframe life, and enabling next-gen aerospace, hypersonics, and advanced manufacturing—and the strategic value only compounds.

https://reddit.com/link/1swztqi/video/i8k8jna3opxg1/player

With the stock still hovering around ~$6 and a long-awaited DFS pending, the disconnect between current valuation and what’s taking shape is hard to ignore. As Mark Smith has said, Elk Creek is a “National Strategic Asset”—and when an asset like that meets a fully funded national priority, it doesn’t wait for recognition… it becomes essential!

Yep ...waiting with many!

Chico

April 24th, 2026- Ambassador Jamieson Greer Announces United States-European Union Action Plan for Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience

Ambassador Jamieson Greer Announces United States-European Union Action Plan for Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience | United States Trade Representative

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Two-Fer- Friday post...

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April 8th, 2026~Lockheed’s Skunk Works Deploys Quantum Tool for First Rescue

Lockheed’s Skunk Works Deploys Quantum Tool For First Rescue

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Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works division deployed a new quantum tool, codenamed “Ghost Murmur,” in a successful first field rescue of a downed American airman in Iran. The technology located the pilot after his F-15E was shot down late last week, and he survived for two days in desolate terrain. The technology utilizes long-range quantum magnetometry to detect the faint electromagnetic signature of a human heartbeat, then isolates it from background interference using artificial intelligence. According to a source briefed on the program, “It’s like hearing a voice in a stadium, except the stadium is a thousand square miles of desert.” The relatively barren landscape provided an ideal first operational use for the system, which one source explained is designed to find individuals who, for all practical purposes, have disappeared, and, crucially, “if your heart is beating, we will find you.”

Ghost Murmur: Long-Range Detection via Quantum Magnetometry

The Central Intelligence Agency recently employed the technology, dubbed “Ghost Murmur,” to locate and rescue a downed American airman in Iran, marking the first field deployment of a system capable of detecting a human heartbeat at extraordinary distances. The successful operation, mentioned by President Trump and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, demonstrates a significant leap in remote human detection. Traditionally, such signals could only be measured in a clinical setting, but the new sensors dramatically extend the range of detection.

The arid Iranian landscape proved ideal for this initial operational use, offering an ideal environment due to minimal electromagnetic interference and a strong thermal contrast between a living body and the surrounding terrain. The system is not infallible; the source clarified that “The capability is not omniscient. It works best in remote, low-clutter environments and requires significant processing time.” Interestingly, the airman’s activated Combat Survivor Evader Locator beacon played a secondary role, as exposing himself to transmit the signal aided in detection. “He had to come out [of the crevice] to send the beacon,” explained the source, “It was less important what signal they sent and more important that he had to come out to send it.” The CIA director confirmed the agency’s success, stating they achieved confirmation of the airman’s location “still invisible to the enemy, but not to the CIA.”

Skunk Works Develops Ghost Murmur for CIA Field Deployment

This system represents a significant advancement in remote detection, moving beyond the limitations of traditional search-and-rescue methods which rely heavily on activated beacons and visual reconnaissance. The technology’s first field deployment proved successful in the challenging terrain of southern Iran, where the airman survived late last week, being found after two days while Iranian forces searched for him. The name itself, “Ghost Murmur,” is intentional; “Murmur” is a clinical term for a heart rhythm, while “Ghost” alludes to locating someone who has seemingly vanished. Traditionally, this signal was too weak to measure outside of a hospital setting, but advances in quantum magnetometry, specifically sensors built around microscopic defects in synthetic diamonds, have dramatically extended the detection range. The system does have limitations, however. “The capability is not omniscient.” The technology has been successfully tested on Black Hawk helicopters for future potential use on F-35 fighter jets, suggesting a broader future for this intelligence-gathering tool.

“But advances in a field known as quantum magnetometry – specifically sensors built around microscopic defects in synthetic diamonds – have apparently made it possible to detect these signals at dramatically greater distances.”

F-15 Rescue in Iran Validates Heartbeat Signature Technology

Skunk Works, the advanced development division of Lockheed Martin, has quietly validated a new approach to personnel recovery with the successful rescue of a downed F-15E pilot in Iran; the operation hinged on a technology called “Ghost Murmur,” which detects the electromagnetic signature of a human heartbeat at considerable distances. Developed as an intelligence collection tool, Ghost Murmur utilizes long-range quantum magnetometry paired with artificial intelligence to isolate the faint signal from environmental noise, a breakthrough detailed by sources close to the program.

“The name is deliberate. ‘Murmur’ is a clinical term for a heart rhythm. ‘Ghost’ refers to finding someone who, for all practical purposes, has disappeared,”

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: a domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

On April 24, 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative and the European Union formally announced a joint Action Plan focused on building resilient critical minerals supply chains. The framework explicitly includes coordinated trade measures such as price floors, subsidies, standards-based markets, offtake agreements, stockpiling, and joint R&D. The stated goal is to reduce dependence on non-market actors and secure stable supply for materials considered essential to economic and national security.

Separately, Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works division recently deployed a quantum sensing system known as “Ghost Murmur” in a real-world rescue scenario. The system uses quantum magnetometry and artificial intelligence to detect the electromagnetic signature of a human heartbeat at long range. According to reporting, the technology has been tested on airborne platforms and is intended for use in low-interference environments, representing an advancement in remote sensing and personnel recovery capabilities.

NioCorp Developments Ltd. has stated it is engaged across multiple critical mineral pathways at its Elk Creek Project, including niobium, scandium, titanium, and rare earth elements. In March 2026, Jim Sims confirmed that development work tied to scandium and aluminum-scandium alloys is “ongoing and accelerating across multiple nodes,” and clarified that activity is not limited to scandium alone but spans the broader suite of materials. He also indicated that the company is receiving inquiries for aluminum-scandium master alloy and that future demand signals are expected through offtake agreements, partnerships, or government-related programs. In parallel, the company has disclosed a pending commercial relationship with Traxys to support marketing and potential offtake across multiple product streams, signaling early-stage alignment with global commodity trading and distribution channels ahead of full production.

Aluminum-scandium alloys are known for high strength-to-weight ratios, thermal stability, and resistance to fatigue, making them suitable for aerospace and defense applications. Titanium and niobium are widely used in structural and high-temperature environments, while rare earth elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium are essential for high-performance magnets and advanced electronic systems. These materials are commonly used across aircraft, sensors, and other defense-related technologies. Broader U.S. initiatives such as Project Vault and Project Forge—focused on securing, processing, and scaling domestic critical minerals and manufacturing capacity—further reinforce the strategic importance of integrated supply chains like Elk Creek.

Taken together, current policy developments, advances in defense sensing technologies, and ongoing industry efforts to secure domestic supply chains point to increasing coordination between governments, manufacturers, and material developers. The emphasis across all sources is on ensuring reliable access to critical minerals required for next-generation industrial, energy, and defense systems, with emerging commercial agreements and federal initiatives helping to bridge the gap between resource development and end-use deployment.

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

The question isn’t if anymore—it’s how fast the remaining dominoes fall! With over $500M in equity secured, the Traxys offtake structure advancing, dual portal construction already underway since March and tracking toward completion by September per Mark Smith, and a Final DFS expected between now (Hoping) and June ahead of a potential EXIM-backed FID in mid-2026, the path is no longer theoretical—it’s sequenced.

If that cadence holds, NioCorp transitions almost immediately from early works into full-scale buildout. At that point, Elk Creek isn’t being valued as a project—it’s being activated as infrastructure. And as Smith has said, a “National Strategic Asset”. Which IMHO- doesn’t wait to be discovered by the market**…" it gets secured! 🚂"**

🚂 The whistle isn’t just blowing now… it’s echoing across sectors. "All Aboard!"

Chico

April 24th, 2026~ US and EU Strengthen Critical Minerals Partnership to Reduce China Dependence

US and EU Strengthen Critical Minerals Partnership to Reduce China Dependence - EconoTimes

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The United States and the European Union are set to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at strengthening cooperation on critical minerals, marking a strategic move to secure global supply chains and reduce reliance on China. The agreement will be formalized on Friday during a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, according to the State Department.This critical minerals partnership highlights growing concerns in Washington and Brussels over the dominance of Chinese suppliers in rare earth elements and other essential resources used in clean energy, defense, and advanced technologies. Both sides are actively working to diversify supply sources and build more resilient and transparent supply chains.

Recent discussions between EU and U.S. officials have focused on aligning trade policies and creating incentives to support non-Chinese mineral producers. Sefcovic previously described talks with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer as “very positive,” noting that tariffs and mineral sourcing strategies were key topics. One proposal under consideration includes implementing minimum price guarantees to encourage investment in alternative suppliers and stabilize global markets.

The U.S. government has also urged its allies to increase financial support for critical minerals sourced outside China. Greer emphasized the importance of establishing a pricing mechanism for rare earth minerals to ensure fair competition and long-term supply security. These measures are seen as essential to counterbalance China’s current influence over the sector.Economic ties between the U.S. and EU remain strong, with the United States serving as the bloc’s largest trading partner. EU exports to the U.S. reached a record 555 billion euros in 2025, underscoring the importance of continued cooperation in strategic industries.

The agreement comes amid broader geopolitical tensions, as President Donald Trump has voiced frustration over limited support from European and NATO allies in U.S. foreign policy efforts. Strengthening collaboration on critical minerals may serve as a key step in reinforcing transatlantic relations while addressing global supply chain vulnerabilities.

See also:

April 23rd, 2026~U.S., E.U. to Sign Preliminary Partnership Deal on Critical Minerals on Friday

US, EU to sign preliminary partnership deal on critical minerals on Friday | Reuters

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Memorandum of Understanding Signing

WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) - The United States and the European Union will sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday for a partnership on critical minerals, the State Department said late on Thursday.

Signing Ceremony Details

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and EU Trade Commissioner ​Maros Sefcovic will meet on Friday and take part in the signing ceremony, the department added.

Strategic Importance of Critical Minerals

US Efforts to Secure Supply Chains

• The U.S. has been scrambling to get ⁠access ​to critical mineral reserves, especially rare ​earth supply chains currently dominated by Chinese players.

Recent High-Level Discussions

• Sefcovic said in late March he held a "very ​positive" meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in which they discussed critical minerals and tariffs.

Allied Cooperation and Price Mechanisms

• Washington has urged its ​allies to pay more for critical minerals ‌sourced from outside China. Greer has previously said ​that there ⁠needs to be some kind of price mechanism on rare earth minerals.

Potential Agreement Details

Bloomberg Report Insights

• Bloomberg reported earlier this month that the EU and Washington were ​closing in on an agreement to coordinate ‌on producing and securing critical minerals. The potential deal would include incentives such as minimum price ​guarantees that could favor non‑Chinese suppliers.

Economic and Political Context

Trade Relationship Overview

• The U.S. ​is the EU's ⁠largest trading partner, with EU exports to the U.S. reaching a record 555 billion euros ($648.52 billion) ​in 2025.

A few quick reads with your morning coffee... as we wait for that DFS & more material news as it becomes available!

April 24th, 2026~US firms voice 'concern' over China's new supply chain rules

US firms voice 'concern' over China's new supply chain rules | The Star

Customs officers conduct inspections at the warehouse of a cross-border e-commerce enterprise at the Yiwu Comprehensive Bonded Zone in Yiwu, east China's Zhejiang Province, Jan. 30, 2026. - Xinhua

BEIJING: China's new supply chain regulations could be a "concern" for US firms, the American Chamber of Commerce in China warned on Thursday (April 23).

The regulations, released on April 7, allow Chinese authorities to take measures against foreign companies or individuals that "harm China's industrial and supply chain security".

The rules appeared aimed at stopping companies from removing China from their supply chains, AmCham China's president Michael Hart said on Thursday.

Western governments are increasingly concerned about their reliance on Chinese supply chains, particularly in rare earths, which China dominates. The minerals are critical for a wide range of products from everyday consumer electronics to weapons, and Chinese export curbs during a blistering trade war with the United States last year sent shockwaves across industries.

"There's a little bit of irony as China continues to build up its own supply chain to make sure it's not reliant on others," Hart told a news conference launching his group's annual report on American business in China.

Most US companies are not moving manufacturing out of China, he said, but some were looking to diversify, and if the new rules restrict those moves, it would be a "concern".

'Increased risks'

The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC) criticised the provisions as "unclear and vague" earlier this month, saying their implementation "increases the risk of doing business in or with China".

They "leave open the possibility that several legitimate commercial decisions" could be construed as threatening China's supply chains, it said.

"The threat that individual employees could be punished through exit bans is concerning," the EUCCC added.

Hart said more clarity on the rules' implementation was needed.

China accounts for around 90 per cent of global production of rare earths, and the elements are expected to be a key talking point at a summit between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, scheduled for mid-May.

They could reach agreements on aviation, agriculture and food export restrictions, but major diplomatic or economic deals are unlikely, AmCham China's chairman James Zimmerman said Thursday.

"We are not anticipating any grand bargains. We're not anticipating any huge breakthroughs," he said.

AmCham China's report showed US firms in China had seen some regulatory improvements and steps towards a more open economy in the last 12 months, but still face uneven market access and structural pressures on competition and investment.

They also worried about weak demand and squeezed profitability, with China's economic slowdown seen as their top challenge, ahead of US-China tensions, according to AmCham China's business survey released in January. - AFP

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS AS ALWAYS:

Waiting for more material news as it becomes available with many! \"All aboard!'