July 1st, 2026~Critical Minerals: The New Frontline in US-China Economic Competition (report)

Critical-Minerals-July-2026-English.pdf

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July 1st, 2026~Recent China Export Control Actions Signal Active Enforcement for Rare Earths and Strategic Minerals

A series of recent developments—including the reported detention of foreign nationals in China, domestic enforcement actions against Chinese exporters, and MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 of 2026 formalizing a public reporting mechanism for strategic mineral export control violations—signal an increasingly active enforcement posture in this area. This LawFlash examines these developments and their practical implications for multinational companies.

Recent China Export Control Actions Signal Active Enforcement for Rare Earths and Strategic Minerals

FOREIGN NATIONALS DETAINED FOR SMUGGLING

Earlier this week, the Japanese government confirmed that two Japanese nationals employed by a major Japanese company were detained in Dalian in May 2026 on allegations of smuggling goods subject to export restrictions, reportedly involving rare-earth-related items. Based on public reports, this represents one of the first known instances of foreign nationals being detained in China in connection with an alleged export control violation involving such items.

Although the full facts of the case have not been publicly disclosed, the development is notable from a compliance perspective. China’s export controls in this area are grounded in national security and nonproliferation considerations, as certain rare-earth-related items, technologies, and end uses may be subject to China’s dual-use export control regime depending on the applicable control list, technical parameters, item form, and end-use/end-user factors. Some high-profile prior detentions of foreign nationals in China have involved national security–related allegations, but the reported use of customs smuggling and export control theories in a rare-earth-related matter may indicate a more active and visible enforcement posture in the strategic minerals area.

Companies operating in sectors that may involve controlled strategic minerals and dual-use items should carefully evaluate their compliance frameworks and ensure their personnel understand the current regulatory environment.

DOMESTIC ENFORCEMENT PRESSURE ON CHINESE EXPORTERS

Enforcement pressure is not limited to foreign nationals. On June 18, 2026, a major Chinese precision optics company (market capitalization approximately 11.7 billion renminbi) disclosed that its chairman had been placed under compulsory measures by the Shanghai Customs anti-smuggling bureau. The alleged violation involved falsely declaring the material composition of exported lenses containing germanium as ordinary optical glass to circumvent export licensing requirements.

China initially controlled germanium-related items under the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and General Administration of Customs Announcement No. 23 of 2023. They have since been incorporated into China’s unified Dual-Use Items Export Control List published under MOFCOM Announcement No. 51 of 2024, effective December 1, 2024. Customs reportedly reviewed approximately three years of export records in reaching its determination.

This domestic enforcement action carries important implications for foreign buyers and supply chain participants. As Chinese exporters face heightened scrutiny and personal criminal liability risk for misclassification or false declarations, they are likely to adopt more conservative compliance postures.

Foreign companies should anticipate that Chinese suppliers may impose more rigorous end-use and end-user certification requirements, request additional documentation, or decline transactions where the compliance risk is perceived as elevated. Also, foreign buyers should ensure they are not placing pressure on Chinese suppliers to misclassify items, omit relevant end use or end user information, reroute shipments through third countries, disassemble controlled items into components, or otherwise circumvent export control requirements.

MOFCOM ANNOUNCEMENT: PUBLIC REPORTING MECHANISM FOR STRATEGIC MINERAL EXPORT CONTROL VIOLATIONS

On June 24, 2026, MOFCOM published Announcement No. 26 of 2026, which formalizes the reporting and handling of violations involving strategic mineral dual-use export controls. Effective July 1, 2026, the announcement establishes a mechanism encouraging organizations and individuals to report suspected violations. The scope of reportable conduct is broad, including, among other things:

• Exporting controlled items without a permit or exceeding license scope
• Disguising controlled items through modification or disassembly into components
• Routing exports through third countries to circumvent controls
• Transferring controlled technologies through trade, investment, exhibitions, joint research and development, consulting, or similar channels
• Providing logistics, customs brokerage, ecommerce, or financial services in support of unlawful exports
• Assisting importers or end users in evading controls
• Transacting with restricted importers or end users
• Failing to seek authorization for non-listed strategic-mineral-related goods, technologies, or services where the exporter knows or should know that Article 12 export-control risks may exist
• Accepting or committing to accept foreign government requests for access, on-site verification, or similar activities related to strategic mineral dual-use export controls without authorization

Voluntary self-reporting is identified as a potential mitigating factor, while malicious false reporting may be penalized. The practical effect of this mechanism is to significantly increase the likelihood of detection through employees, competitors, and other market participants—expanding enforcement beyond the capacity of government inspectors alone.

THE BROADER REGULATORY CONTEXT

These enforcement developments are not confined to any single bilateral relationship. China’s tightening of export controls on rare earths and strategic minerals has affected companies across multiple jurisdictions. Some restrictions apply broadly, requiring export authorization for any destination. Others more recently focused on tightening controls to specific countries and entities.

With respect to Japan, China tightened controls on dual-use exports involving certain Japanese entities and military end uses beginning in January 2026, with reported practical effects on rare-earth-related supply chains. With respect to the United States, which traditionally relies heavily on rare earth materials originating in China, in June 2026 China added 10 US entities to its export control list, including rare earth miners MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. The restrictions also prohibit parties located anywhere from transferring or providing dual-use items originating in China to these entities.

This action followed the US Department of Defense’s update to its Section 1260H list, which prohibits the Department from entering into, renewing, or extending contracts for goods, services, or technology with a 1260H-listed entity or any entity it controls. On June 30, 2027, the prohibition expands to the procurement of goods or services produced or developed by such entities. The response by China’s Ministry of Finance also restricted government procurement of products manufactured by 46 listed US companies, many of which are US defense contractors, but also excluded US-invested enterprises operating in China.

These developments indicate that China applies its export control enforcement over strategic minerals broadly. The extraterritorial reach of its jurisdiction to anyone dealing in China-origin rare earth material means the compliance exposure is not limited to targeted companies. Businesses in any jurisdiction that source, process, or trade in rare earths and strategic minerals should assess their compliance posture accordingly and evaluate supply chain exposure.

PRACTICAL STEPS FOR MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES

These developments require a more deliberate and informed approach to compliance. Companies should consider the following:

Evaluate the Risk Environment

Companies with personnel in China involved in procurement, logistics, or export compliance for strategic minerals and dual-use items should conduct a thorough assessment of their exposure under the current regulatory framework. This includes understanding which items in their supply chain may be subject to Chinese export controls and ensuring that classification determinations are defensible and exports comply with any licensing restrictions.

Strengthen Internal Compliance Frameworks

The new public reporting mechanism means that compliance failures are more likely to be detected. Companies should review internal procedures for handling export-controlled items, ensure that personnel understand the scope of China’s export controls, and establish clear escalation protocols for ambiguous situations. For companies that also may be subject to US jurisdiction, reviewing and updating their compliance programs to address both Chinese and US requirements is increasingly necessary to avoid legal conflicts.

Exercise Caution with Foreign Government Verification Requests

Announcement No. 26 explicitly identifies unauthorized acceptance of foreign government requests for access, on-site verification, or similar activities related to strategic mineral export controls as reportable conduct. Companies should carefully review any foreign-government request, or any customer or prime-contractor request that appears to implement, relay, or satisfy a foreign-government access, on-site verification, audit, or end-use check requirement involving strategic minerals. Where such requests arise, companies should pause and conduct legal review to identify a path that is consistent with both Chinese law and any applicable foreign legal obligations, rather than accepting or declining without analysis.

Prepare for Contingencies

Companies should ensure they have allocated sufficient resources to compliance teams to address these new risks and have crisis management plans in place, such as legal counsel identified in advance, communication protocols, and consular notification procedures.

Monitor Supplier Behavior and Maintain Compliance Discipline

As Chinese exporters face increased enforcement pressure, foreign buyers may encounter supply disruptions, requests for additional certifications, or refusals to transact. In particular, companies are receiving significantly more detailed end use and end user due diligence requests from Chinese exporters regarding a company’s business operations, market, customers, intended use for products and other information that companies may consider confidential or proprietary.

Companies should proactively engage with their Chinese suppliers to understand how this evolving regulatory environment may affect their commercial relationships. Companies should also ensure that their own procurement practices do not encourage or facilitate noncompliance by Chinese counterparties—including through pressure to misclassify items, omit information that may be relevant to a product’s end use or end user, reroute through third countries, or minimize export control obligations.

LOOKING AHEAD

Companies should monitor MOFCOM announcements, customs enforcement actions, and related regulatory developments that may signal further changes. Similarly, given the back-and-forth escalations between the United States and China, it is important to pay attention to any potential new export or business restrictions imposed by the US government.

The reported detention of foreign nationals in connection with alleged rare-earth-related export control violations, combined with the new MOFCOM public reporting mechanism taking effect July 1, indicates that the enforcement framework around strategic minerals is becoming more active, visible, and practically relevant for companies.

Companies that proactively assess their exposure, strengthen their compliance frameworks, and prepare for contingencies will be best positioned to navigate this environment effectively.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS:

June 30th, 2026~ IBC Advanced Alloys Promotes Jenny Gipson to President of Its Nonferrous Division

IBC Advanced Alloys Promotes Jenny Gipson to President of Its Nonferrous Division

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FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS:

Jenny Gipson’s Promotion Isn’t Routine — It’s the First Real Signal of What IBC Is About to Become....

With IBC Advanced Alloys promotion of Jenny Gipson to President of the Nonferrous Division, some folks might see it as a standard leadership shuffle. It isn’t. (I don't think so...) This is the first structural move that directly aligns IBC with the massive industrial‑base rebuild happening across the Navy, DoD, and the FY2027 budget. Jenny isn’t a “new face” — she’s a 25‑year forging‑industry operator who specializes in throughput, takt‑time, bottleneck removal, and scaling shop‑floor production. And that’s exactly what IBC needs right now.

Mark Wolma spent nearly two decades consolidating and vertically integrating the Franklin plant. His job was to build the platform. Jenny’s job is to scale it. That timing matters because the Navy’s 2026 shipbuilding plan is basically a shopping list for companies like IBC: copper‑nickel components, aluminum bronze, advanced castings, lightweight structures, and domestic qualification. The FY2027 budget pours tens of billions into critical minerals, castings, forgings, and distributed manufacturing — and IBC is one of the few U.S. shops already supplying into naval programs. Jenny is stepping in right as demand is rising and federal funding is targeting exactly the capabilities her division runs.

Now layer in the upstream side. If NioCorp finally lands DFS, Traxys, and EXIM FID, the U.S. gets domestic scandium, niobium, titanium, and rare earths — the exact feedstock the Pentagon is trying to secure. Combine that with VALIMET’s Mine‑to‑Prime ScAl powder chain and Lockheed’s quiet Sc‑Al prototyping, and suddenly you have a real mine → alloy → component supply chain forming. In that scenario, Jenny becomes the fulcrum of the downstream half: the person responsible for turning feedstock into qualified parts, throughput, and defense‑grade production.

This is why her promotion matters. IBC’s roadmap — Cu‑Ni restart, aluminum bronze expansion, vacuum cap furnace, radial forge — lines up perfectly with the DoD’s funding priorities. But none of that scales without an operator who knows how to run a plant under rising demand. Jenny is that operator. And if NioCorp delivers its milestones, the justification for federal capital at IBC becomes much stronger, because the upstream and downstream finally snap together.

Good Luck Jenny!

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June 18th, 2026~Rare Earths 2026: Navigating the Minefield of Supply Chain Volatility

Rare Earths 2026

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The global rare earths market enters June 2026 in a state of high-velocity transition. While the surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption and defense modernization has pushed demand for permanent magnets to record highs, the industrial architecture required to support this growth remains dangerously lopsided.

For mining operators and institutional investors, the current landscape is defined not by a shortage of ore, but by a chronic bottleneck in the midstream. As China tightens its grip on export licenses and Western processing facilities navigate technical delays, the volatility that characterized the 2024-2025 period has evolved into a persistent operational risk. Navigating this “minefield” requires a shift in focus from raw extraction to the high-stakes world of chemical separation and magnet alloy production.

The Processing Paradox: Why Mining is Not Enough

In 2026, the primary vulnerability for Western economies is no longer the “mine-head.” Significant progress has been made in diversifying the upstream, with expanded output from the United States, Australia, and emerging projects across Africa and South America. However, the “Processing Paradox” remains: you can have an abundance of non-Chinese ore in the ground, but if you lack the facilities to separate that ore into individual oxides, you are still beholden to the existing global midstream.

China continues to control over 85% of global rare earth separation capacity and more than 90% of permanent magnet production. In the first half of 2026, this dominance has been leveraged through expanded export controls that require licenses even for trace amounts of critical minerals in finished components. For a global manufacturer, this means that a delayed license for a single specialized magnet can stall an entire assembly line.

Industry analysts estimate that non-Chinese manufacturers are currently operating on five-to-six-month inventories. This creates a “clipping effect,” where any minor geopolitical friction leads to immediate price spikes in the spot market. This is particularly evident in heavy rare earths (HREE) like dysprosium and terbium, which are essential for high-temperature magnets in wind turbines and EV drivetrains.

The 2026 Supply Crunch: April and Beyond

The current volatility reached a fever pitch in April 2026. Following the implementation of more stringent “dual-use” export regulations by Beijing in late 2025, several major Western OEMs exhausted their strategic reserves. The resulting supply squeeze saw Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) prices fluctuate by 20% in a single quarter, reflecting a market that is moving more on policy signals than on fundamental earnings data.

This environment has forced a realignment of corporate strategy. Major players are no longer just looking for the next “world-class deposit”; they are seeking integrated “mine-to-magnet” solutions. This shift is critical because, as the Lobito Corridor project has demonstrated in the copper and cobalt markets, logistics and processing are the true determinants of supply chain resilience.

Western Anchors: MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths

The effort to build a parallel, non-Chinese supply chain is currently anchored by two primary entities: MP Materials in the United States and Lynas Rare Earths in Australia.

MP Materials and the Defense Nexus

MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine remains the cornerstone of U.S. domestic supply. However, the narrative in 2026 has shifted from the mine’s output to the progress of its “10X” facility. Supported by a $400 million public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), MP is moving aggressively into downstream magnet manufacturing.

While the 10X plant is slated for full commissioning toward the end of the decade, its initial production runs are already spoken for. The DoD’s right to 100% of the magnet output for defense applications: including drones and advanced robotics: highlights the “defense-first” nature of current Western stockpiling. For the civilian sector, this means that despite increased U.S. mining activity, the “trickle-down” of finished magnets into the broader market remains restricted.

Lynas and the Asia-Pacific Corridor

Lynas Rare Earths continues to serve as the most critical non-Chinese supplier for the Japanese and European markets. Through a series of long-term offtake agreements with Japan Australia Rare Earths BV, Lynas is set to provide up to 7,200 tonnes per year of NdPr to Japanese magnet producers through 2038.

In 2026, Lynas is also playing a key role in supporting the U.S. processing footprint. A binding agreement with the DoD for the purchase of light and heavy rare earth oxides is helping to anchor a non-Chinese supply corridor that stretches from Australian mines to American and Japanese refineries. This corridor is the first real sign of “resilience” as opposed to “self-sufficiency,” recognizing that no single nation can yet fully decouple from the global rare earths ecosystem.

Policy as a Catalyst: The EU CRM Act

In Europe, the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) has begun to reshape the investment landscape. By setting clear benchmarks: such as ensuring 40% of strategic raw materials are processed within the EU by 2030: the Act has unlocked significant financing for domestic refineries.

However, in 2026, the impact of the CRMA is more psychological than physical. While it has streamlined the permitting process for new separation plants in Scandinavia and the Balkans, these facilities are not yet delivering the volumes required to offset dependence on Asian midstream imports. For now, the EU remains in a “bridge” phase, relying on strategic partnerships with Norway and Canada to buffer against Chinese export volatility.

Navigating Technical and ESG Risks

The technical complexity of rare earth separation cannot be overstated. Unlike more common metals, separating REEs requires thousands of individual solvent extraction stages. The environmental footprint of this process: particularly the management of radioactive by-products like thorium: remains a significant ESG hurdle for Western projects.

Operators who fail to address mine waste and tailings management are finding it increasingly difficult to secure the necessary social license and institutional funding. In 2026, a project’s “green” credentials are as vital to its supply chain security as its geological grade. Investors are demanding transparency in “secondary” sourcing, including recycling and recovery from existing tailings, which is projected to meet 15% of EU rare earth demand by the end of the decade.

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2026 Outlook: A Fragile Equilibrium

The remainder of 2026 will likely be defined by a “fragile equilibrium.” Supply is increasing, but it is mismatched. We are seeing a glut of low-grade concentrates alongside a shortage of high-purity heavy rare earth oxides.

For the mining sector, the lesson of 2026 is clear: exploration success is secondary to processing capability. Companies that can demonstrate a clear pathway to separation: or those that secure iron-clad offtake agreements with non-Chinese refineries: will be the only ones to successfully navigate the current volatility.

As we look toward the late 2020s, the “arms race” for rare earths will shift from the pit to the lab. Until the West can match China’s midstream efficiency, the market will remain a policy-driven minefield where price discovery is as much about geopolitical signaling as it is about industrial demand.

June 15th, 2026~Some aerial Shots of the NioCorp mine... Thanks Randy & Mr. N!...

***Photo Credit to Joel Dunekacke! (Thanks Joel!)

Randy Gottula - Some Aerial shots of the NioCorp mine near... | Facebook

\"While the market waits, the dirt keeps moving!!\"

\"While the market waits, the dirt keeps moving!!\"

\"While the market waits, the dirt keeps moving!!\"

June 18, 2026~USA Rare Earth (USAR) Commissions Colorado Facility for Rare Earth Oxide Production

USA Rare Earth (USAR) Commissions Colorado Facility for Rare Earth Oxide Production

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USA Rare Earth Inc. (NASDAQ:USAR) is one of the best new stocks to buy with the huge upside potential. On June 15, USA Rare Earth commissioned a hydrometallurgical demonstration facility in Wheat Ridge, Colorado, with initial production of separated heavy rare earth oxides targeted for Q3 2026. This milestone positions the company as one of the few Western producers capable of delivering commercial-quality dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium. By integrating this facility into its value chain, the company aims to supply its subsidiary, Less Common Metals, for permanent magnet manufacturing.

The facility is currently running parallel campaigns to de-risk three key processing flowsheets: ore from the Round Top deposit, third-party mixed rare earth carbonates, and recycled magnet swarf. Data gathered from these operations will inform the upcoming Round Top Definitive Feasibility Study, scheduled for completion in late 2026, and will support the development of a digital twin in partnership with the US Department of Energy.

CEO Barbara Humpton emphasized that this facility is central to building a fully integrated, non-Chinese rare earth platform. By controlling the process from feedstock acquisition to magnet production, the company aims to secure a critical supply chain for essential industries. With a team of 28 technical experts, the automated plant will provide the necessary data and proven chemistry to move toward commercial-scale deployment.

Form Your Own Opinions & Conclusions above:

🚂 NioCorp's Thursday Watch — June 18, 2026

"While the market waits, the dirt keeps moving!!"

Fresh aerial photos from Elk Creek taken June 15th (Thanks Randy!) show exactly what many investors have been saying for months: this is no longer a concept, a PowerPoint, or a drill story. The dual-ramp portal construction is visibly advancing as NioCorp continues to transition from a development-stage company toward a construction-stage critical minerals producer. While the share price continues to hover around the $5 range, the physical project itself is steadily moving forward, and the catalyst stack remains intact: the updated DFS, definitive Traxys agreement, contemplated Traxys investment, EXIM financing process, and eventual construction acceleration.

At the same time, the global critical minerals backdrop continues to strengthen. New reports this week highlighted the growing disconnect between mining and processing, with China still controlling the overwhelming majority of rare earth separation and magnet production. Western governments are increasingly realizing that mine-to-magnet supply chains are now a national security issue. That theme was reinforced again by recent U.S. diplomatic initiatives, FORGE discussions, Project Vault concepts, and Mark Smith's own warnings that China has little economic incentive to continue supplying the West with critical minerals required for defense, aerospace, AI, robotics, and advanced manufacturing.

Meanwhile, USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) continues to receive significant market attention, recently commissioning its Colorado demonstration facility while trading near $23/share. Credit where it's due—USAR is advancing an important domestic rare earth strategy. However, the valuation disparity remains striking when compared to NioCorp. Elk Creek is not simply a rare earth project. It is a potential six-critical-mineral platform encompassing Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, Neodymium, Praseodymium, Dysprosium, and Terbium—materials that touch everything from HSLA steel and jet engines to permanent magnets, advanced defense systems, EVs, semiconductors, and next-generation alloys.

The market today still appears focused primarily on financing risk. Yet if the pending catalysts begin falling into place—updated DFS, definitive Traxys agreements, anchor investment participation, and eventual EXIM approval. The conversation could shift rapidly from "Can Elk Creek be financed?" to "How should Elk Creek be valued as a fully financed U.S. strategic minerals producer?" Those are two very different discussions, and history shows markets often reprice quickly once financing uncertainty is removed.

For now, long-term shareholders continue watching the same catalyst sequence while portal construction advances in Nebraska. The aerial photos tell their own story: equipment is moving, earth is moving, and time is moving. The question is whether the market is prepared for what happens if the DFS, Traxys package, and EXIM process begin aligning over the months ahead. As Mark Smith has repeatedly stated, Elk Creek represents a "National Strategic Asset." If 2026 truly proves to be "the year," many investors believe the current share price may eventually be remembered as the period when the market had not yet fully connected the value of six critical mineral pathways with the strategic reality now unfolding across the globe!

Waiting with many for more material news as it becomes available...

Chico

I wonder what it will look like when they get it done!??? Gotta wait for that darn DFS .... Let's gooo team Niocorp!

June 11th, 2026- Waiting for DFS & Traxys Deals & EXIM FID with many!

While the market waits for signatures and headlines, the portals keep advancing, the catalyst window keeps shrinking, and MY bones on that bench may be closer than ever to witnessing the birth of America's next National Strategic Asset. 💀☕🚂⛏️ ....

Waiting for this \"Dry Spell\" on the DFS, Traxys deal & EXIM FID to end soon with many! Let's GOooooo NioCorp! \"Pun intended!\"

NioCorp Weekend Watch: The Window Is Tightening

As we head into the weekend of June 11, 2026, NioCorp sits around $5/share while the company continues advancing what may become one of the most strategically important critical minerals projects in the United States. This week brought another significant development: B. Riley initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $12 price target, citing more than 100% upside from current levels and identifying the same major catalysts many long-term shareholders have been tracking: the updated DFS, definitive Traxys agreements, EXIM financing progress, and continued project execution at Elk Creek.

What stands out most is that B. Riley appears to agree with what many investors have been arguing for months: the market is still heavily discounting financing risk even though the project has already cleared numerous hurdles. Elk Creek is fully permitted, portal construction is underway, over $500 million has been raised, EXIM has been engaged for years, and the project is evolving into far more than simply a niobium mine.

The emerging story is a potential six-critical-minerals platform supplying materials essential to U.S. defense, aerospace, advanced manufacturing, energy security, and next-generation technologies:

• Niobium
• Scandium
• Titanium
• Neodymium (Nd)
• Dysprosium (Dy)
• Terbium (Tb)

Meanwhile, Mark Smith's recent William Blair comments continue to support the view that NioCorp has moved beyond the technical-risk stage and into the financing and execution phase. His comments regarding the updated DFS, REE economics, CAPEX reductions, 90%+ recoveries, and EXIM's recognition of portal expenditures suggest multiple workstreams are converging. The much-discussed "2–3 weeks" comment from June 3rd still places the updated DFS squarely within a June release window. Whether that ends up being June 15th, June 22nd, or June 30th remains unknown, but the timeframe continues to narrow.

The sequence many shareholders are watching remains unchanged:

• Updated DFS
• Definitive Traxys Agreement
• Traxys Anchor Investment
• EXIM Board/FID Process
• Congressional Review Period
• Financial Close/Funding Availability
• Construction Acceleration

None of these events alone guarantees success. However, if several begin falling into place over the next few months, the market may be forced to re-evaluate Elk Creek's value very quickly.

As Mark Smith recently wrote regarding critical minerals and rare earth supply chains, the West can no longer assume China will remain a reliable supplier. The strategic backdrop continues to strengthen by the week while NioCorp advances what Smith has repeatedly called a "National Strategic Asset."

At $5/share, with institutional ownership growing, Sprott maintaining its position, a fresh analyst Buy rating, portal construction underway, and multiple catalysts still pending, many long-term holders believe the most important question remains the same:

Are we watching a struggling development story—or are we watching the final pieces being assembled before Elk Creek transitions into a fully financed construction-stage critical minerals powerhouse?

While the market waits for signatures and headlines, the portals keep advancing, the catalyst window keeps shrinking, and the bones on that bench may be closer than ever to witnessing the birth of America's next National Strategic Asset.

Hoping next few weeks may finally begin answering that question. 🚂⛏️

Staying tuned with many... Let's Goooooo NioCorp!

Chico

Patents Assigned to NioCorp Advanced Metals and Alloys, LLC

Patents Assigned to NioCorp Advanced Metals and Alloys, LLC - Justia Patents Search

HMMM......\"Did NioCorp quietly acquire the intellectual property necessary to move from being a scandium producer to becoming a domestic Al-Sc alloy supplier at the exact moment Lockheed Martin, the DoD, and aerospace additive manufacturing programs are beginning to qualify Al-Sc materials for future production?\"

***NioCorp now holds patented processes capable of converting scandium oxide directly into aluminum-scandium master alloys—the very class of materials being highlighted by Lockheed for next-generation additive manufacturing and aerospace applications.

AEROMAT 2026~ June 3-4th, 2026

37th AeroMat Conference and Exposition (June 2-4, 2026): FROM MINING TO MISSION CRITICAL CAPABILITY

I would imagine Scandium, Titanium & Niobium alloys & so much more are in use & being developed. Interesting that the President himself is giving the presentation on \"Scandium!\"....

Costa Kury , Lockheed Martin Skunkworks, Palmdale, CA

“From mining to mission‑critical capability”, the adoption of Scalmalloy® (an aluminum‑scandium (Al‑Sc) alloy) is reshaping additive manufacturing (AM) for high‑performance aerospace systems. This presentation outlines the domestic supply chain; beginning with scandium extraction, progressing through certified AM feedstock production, and the qualification process of new materials.

The United States aerospace and defense sectors demand a high‑strength, corrosion‑resistant aluminum alloy that can be reliably fabricated using AM for structural airframe components. Aluminum‑scandium uniquely fulfills these requirements, delivering mechanical properties and temperature performance comparable to conventional 7XXX‑series alloys, while unlocking the design freedom of laser powder‑bed‑fusion (LPBF) processes.

By delivering a fully qualified, domestically sourced Al‑Sc AM solution, Lockheed Martin—and the broader industry—will benefit from emerging standards for Scalmalloy®, driving demand, expanding supply, and reducing cost.

Key focus areas of the presentation include:

• Mining process to Aluminum-Scandium Feedstock Lifecycle
• Identification and qualification of U.S. scandium‑powder suppliers
• Generation of a comprehensive mechanical‑property data set (tensile, fatigue, fracture toughness, corrosion) at both room‑temperature and elevated temperatures

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS

The question may no longer be whether the market for scandium exists. The more important question may be whether the United States is now actively building one & whether Elk Creek is being positioned to become one of its cornerstone suppliers?? \"I think Scandium/oxides & it's alloys are extremely important like Titanium in the 1950's! so.... waiting with many indeed!\"

🚨 DID LOCKHEED JUST CONNECT THE DOTS: From Elk Creek Mine to Mission-Critical Aerospace Capability? 🚨

For months, investors have been waiting for the updated DFS, completed Traxys agreements, strategic investment announcements, and a Mid 2026 EXIM financing decision.

Meanwhile, one of the biggest unanswered questions surrounding scandium has remained: Who is actually going to use it? Today's June 3, 2026 presentation from Lockheed Martin Skunk Works at Aeromat 2026 may have just provided the clearest public answer yet. Lockheed isn't talking about theoretical applications anymore, they are discussing the entire domestic scandium supply chain, from mining and scandium extraction, to certified Scalmalloy® (Al-Sc) feedstock production, supplier qualification, materials testing, and ultimately aerospace-grade additive manufacturing for next-generation defense and aerospace systems.

What makes this particularly interesting is the timing. Back in October 2025, NioCorp and Lockheed Martin announced a Pentagon-funded initiative to develop a domestic scandium-based defense technology supply chain. At the time, details were limited. Today's presentation appears to show what that effort may actually look like in practice: building a fully domestic "mine-to-mission" ecosystem around aluminum-scandium alloys. Lockheed specifically highlighted supplier qualification, mechanical property databases, fatigue testing, fracture toughness, corrosion resistance, and elevated-temperature performance—the exact steps required before aerospace materials transition into real-world production programs. This is not simply about selling scandium oxide anymore; it is about creating a qualified U.S. advanced materials platform.

If Elk Creek ultimately secures financing and reaches production around 2029, NioCorp's planned 102 tonnes per year of scandium oxide could become far more significant than many realize. Under a potential "Project VAULT" scenario, government procurement and strategic stockpiling could help establish long-term demand certainty and pricing support. Under a potential "Project PIVOT" scenario, scandium could move beyond oxide sales and into higher-value aluminum-scandium alloys supporting aerospace, defense, additive manufacturing, and potentially automotive lightweighting initiatives in both North America and allied markets. Add future magnet recycling initiatives—which NioCorp has already piloted—alongside niobium, titanium, Nd/Pr, Dy, and Tb production, and Elk Creek begins to look less like a traditional mining project and more like a strategically integrated critical minerals platform.

***The biggest takeaway from today's Lockheed presentation may not be the alloy itself. It may be the realization that the United States appears to be actively building the downstream ecosystem required to consume domestically produced scandium at scale. If the Traxys agreements, anchor investments, updated DFS, and EXIM financing all fall into place over the coming months, investors may eventually look back at June 3, 2026 as one of the first public glimpses of how a domestic scandium supply chain was being assembled in plain sight. The question may no longer be whether a market for scandium exists, the question may be how large that market becomes once aerospace, defense, additive manufacturing, and advanced alloy production begin pulling on the same domestic supply source.

All aboard!

OH ....& here's what makes this story even more intriguing???

What makes today's Lockheed Martin Skunk Works presentation even more compelling is that NioCorp is no longer positioned as merely a future supplier of scandium oxide. Through the acquisition of FEA Materials' scandium alloy assets, proprietary intellectual property, and now multiple patented aluminum-scandium production technologies, NioCorp has quietly assembled the pieces required to move beyond mining and into advanced materials manufacturing itself.

***NioCorp now holds patented processes capable of converting scandium oxide directly into aluminum-scandium master alloys—the very class of materials being highlighted by Lockheed for next-generation additive manufacturing and aerospace applications.

Combined with Pentagon support, the Lockheed collaboration, potential Traxys marketing and offtake relationships, rare earth recycling technologies, and Elk Creek's unique combination of niobium, titanium, scandium, and magnetic rare earths, a larger picture begins to emerge. If financing is secured and construction proceeds toward a 2029 startup, Elk Creek may ultimately become far more than a mine. It could evolve into one of North America's first fully integrated critical minerals and advanced alloys platforms, connecting domestic resources directly to defense systems, aerospace manufacturing, magnet supply chains, and future strategic stockpiles. In hindsight, the true value may never have been the ore body alone, but the patented technologies, partnerships, and industrial ecosystem being assembled around it before the first tonne is ever produced.

Two -Fer post today....

Chico

June 3, 2026~US Redraws Diplomatic Contours of Control Over Critical Minerals as China Grip Fuels Strategic Race

US Redraws Diplomatic Contours of Control Over Critical Minerals as China Grip Fuels Strategic Race

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers Tuesday that critical minerals are now a key focus across the American diplomacy. \"In every embassy around the world, critical minerals are a key component of our diplomacy,\"

Securing access to critical minerals has become a central objective of foreign policy as Washington intensifies efforts to reduce dependence on China, which dominates large segments of the global supply chain for rare earths essential for defence, semiconductors, artificial intelligence and future energy needs.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers Tuesday that critical minerals are now a key focus across the American diplomacy. "In every embassy around the world, critical minerals are a key component of our diplomacy," Rubio said while testifying before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on National Security, Department of State and Related Programs.

The remarks reflect a broader shift in US strategy that has been escalated from a trade issue to a security priority. Washington's changed perceptions of control over critical mineral supply chains primarily target China's dominance in mining, refining, processing and supply chain choking, if required.

As per the industry estimates, China accounts for roughly 70 per cent of global rare-earth production and nearly 90 per cent of global processing and refining capacity, giving Beijing significant influence over supply chains that play key role in enhancing advanced technologies and defence manufacturing.

Countering China Dominance

To counter the single-player dominance, the Trump administration has launched a series of diplomatic initiatives over the past year, including the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial held in February in Washington, bringing together more than 50 countries, including India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, the European Union and several mineral-rich nations from Africa and Latin America.

The gathering focused on building what the State Department described as "secure and resilient critical mineral supply chains" through investments, diversified sourcing, supply and processing capabilities outside China.

The initiative seeks to accelerate investment in strategic mining projects, expand refining capacity among allied nations and strengthen oversight of foreign acquisitions in sensitive sectors. Washington's strategy extends beyond access to mineral deposits, Rubio stressed, referring to massive refining and processing efforts that have become important elements in the strategy.

"The ability to process those materials into a usable product" is critical to long-term economic and national security planning, he said.

Rush for bilateral pacts

As of 2025, the US signed bilateral critical minerals cooperation frameworks with Australia, Japan, Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand, while India and South American nations joined the club early this year. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Rubio recently signed a bilateral framework focused on securing supplies of critical minerals and strengthening cooperation in the sector.

Secretary Marco Rubio, in New Delhi, met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to underscore the importance of the U.S.-India relationship.

The push is closely linked to Washington's broader competition with China. Analysts note that Beijing's ability to leverage its dominant position in critical minerals has become a growing concern among other Asian and Western governments, particularly after years of export restrictions and supply-chain disruptions affecting strategic industries.

FORGE with partners

Vice President J. D. Vance has advocated the creation of a trading bloc among allied nations to secure mineral supplies and expand production across trusted partners, while the proposed Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE) aims to coordinate allied efforts on sourcing, processing and transport infrastructure.

For Washington, the stakes extend far beyond mining. Critical minerals are indispensable for electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy systems, advanced weapons platforms, AI infrastructure and semiconductor production. Meeting the demand now forms the key to ensure future supply chain capabilities.

In his address to the House Subcommittee, Rubio summed up that challenge bluntly, warning lawmakers that "we simply have a hyper concentration" in several critical industries, which the United States is now seeking to unwind through diplomacy, investment and alliances.

A few reads with coffee as we wait for the catalyst news to drop. i.e. Traxys deal, DFS, & EXIM FID! Let's Goooo Team NioCorp!!

June 3, 2026~ China's Critical Minerals Leverage: 2026 Export Controls Reshape Supply Chains

China's Critical Minerals Leverage: 2026 Export Controls Reshape Supply Chains | trade war | informed, clearly

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China's 2025–2026 export controls on rare earths and critical minerals have triggered sixfold price spikes outside China, with licensing approval rates for European firms falling below 25%. As Beijing controls 90% of global rare earth processing and 80% of tungsten refining, Western nations face a narrowing 12- to 18-month window to build alternative supply chains or risk prolonged strategic vulnerability in defense, EV production, and renewable energy. This article analyzes the geopolitical chess match among the US, EU, China, and emerging players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the race to secure critical mineral independence.

China's Dominance and the Export Control Regime

China has long dominated the critical minerals value chain. According to the International Energy Agency, China accounted for roughly 91% of global rare earth separation and refining production and 94% of sintered permanent magnet manufacturing in 2024. The country also controls 80% of tungsten processing and 60% of antimony refining. This dominance is not accidental—decades of state investment under programs like 863 and 973 built an integrated industrial ecosystem that no other nation has replicated.

In April 2025, China imposed export restrictions on heavy rare earths and permanent magnets, citing national security. A second wave in October 2025 expanded controls to include rare earth production equipment, medium and heavy rare earths, lithium battery materials, and extraterritorial provisions applying controls to foreign goods containing Chinese inputs. However, on November 7, 2025, Beijing suspended these measures until November 2026, a move analysts interpret as a tactical pause rather than a policy reversal. The suspension allows China to maintain maximum flexibility—tightening or loosening supply as geopolitical circumstances dictate.

The 2025 rare earth export restrictions have already demonstrated China's ability to disrupt markets. A multi-institutional report released in early 2026 confirms that export controls triggered sixfold price spikes for rare earth magnets and critical minerals outside China. European firms report licensing approval rates below 25%, and over 80% of European companies remain dependent on Chinese supply chains for minerals essential to defense, EVs, and renewable energy.

The West's Response: FORGE, Project Vault, and Bilateral Deals

The United States has led the Western response. In February 2026, the Trump administration launched the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE), a 54-country alliance succeeding the Minerals Security Partnership. FORGE aims to create a preferential trade-and-investment zone for critical minerals with coordinated price floors to counter adversarial market manipulation. Vice President JD Vance described "reference prices" maintained through "adjustable tariffs" to uphold pricing integrity. The US has mobilized over $30 billion in investments, loans, and letters of interest for supply-chain security, including eleven new bilateral framework agreements at the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial.

Complementing FORGE is Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private partnership to establish a US Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve. Backed by a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan and $2 billion in private capital, the project will stockpile 60 critical minerals in secure domestic facilities. Unlike the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Project Vault relies on private firms paying subscription fees for access during disruptions. The Project Vault critical minerals stockpile represents a significant shift in US industrial policy, though experts caution that voluntary participation and the complexity of storing highly differentiated minerals pose implementation challenges.

The EU has also accelerated efforts. Under the Critical Raw Materials Act, Brussels selected 60 Strategic Projects and is pursuing a transatlantic critical minerals partnership with the US, formalized through a memorandum of understanding and Action Plan in April 2026. However, the ODI and multiple reports note that EU financing remains far below what is needed, and unclear demand signals hamper investment. The EU Critical Raw Materials Act 2026 aims to reduce dependence, but scaling domestic processing capacity will take years.

Emerging Players: Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Gulf states are emerging as wild cards in the critical minerals race. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are deploying over $100 billion in investments to secure lithium, copper, and rare earth assets globally. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 includes a $2.5 trillion mineral reserve estimate and aggressive exploration programs. The UAE is investing in processing facilities and strategic partnerships with African and Australian miners. These moves could provide alternative supply routes for Western nations, but also introduce new geopolitical complexities as Gulf states maintain ties with China.

Impact on Defense and Energy Transition

The stakes are existential for Western defense. A single F-35 fighter jet requires over 400 kg of rare earth elements for its sensors, avionics, and guidance systems. China's controls directly impact missile guidance magnets, precision-guided munitions, and radar systems. NATO released a list of 12 critical raw materials in December 2024, and the EU's rare earth demand is projected to increase sixfold by 2030. The critical minerals defense supply chain vulnerability has prompted European defense spending increases of 9.4% between 2023 and 2024, with Denmark targeting 5% of GDP on defense by 2035 and Germany establishing a €500 billion fund.

For the energy transition, each non-Chinese EV now costs an estimated $500 more due to rare earth price spikes. Wind turbines, which use permanent magnets in their generators, face similar cost pressures. The International Energy Agency projects that China will supply over 60% of refined lithium and cobalt, and 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earths by 2035, even with current diversification efforts.

Expert Perspectives

"China is weaponizing control—not scarcity," states a multi-institutional report released in early 2026. "By using temporary, reversible restrictions, Beijing maintains pricing power and extracts strategic concessions while discouraging large-scale Western alternative investment." The report estimates that rebuilding independent supply chains would take 20–30 years, far exceeding the current geopolitical window.

Cullen S. Hendrix of the Peterson Institute for International Economics notes that Project Vault's voluntary participation model may exclude self-insuring firms and small unaware enterprises. "Storing 60 highly differentiated minerals is far more complex than stockpiling oil," he writes. "The program should require mandatory participation, prioritize processed materials, and invest in US and allied processing capacity."

FAQ

What critical minerals does China control?

China controls approximately 90% of rare earth processing, 80% of tungsten refining, and 60% of antimony production. It also dominates processing of lithium, cobalt, and graphite used in batteries.

How have China's 2026 export controls affected prices?

Export controls triggered sixfold price spikes for rare earth magnets and critical minerals outside China. European firms face licensing approval rates below 25%.

What is FORGE?

FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) is a 54-country alliance launched by the US in February 2026 to create a preferential trade-and-investment zone for critical minerals, backed by over $30 billion in commitments.

Can the West achieve critical mineral independence?

Analysts estimate 12–18 months to begin diversification and 5–7 years for meaningful scale. Full independence would require 20–30 years of sustained investment across the entire mine-to-magnet supply chain.

What role are Saudi Arabia and the UAE playing?

Gulf states are deploying over $100 billion to secure lithium, copper, and rare earth assets, potentially offering alternative supply routes while maintaining ties with China.

Conclusion

The 12- to 18-month window for Western nations to build alternative critical mineral supply chains is closing rapidly. China's tactical suspension of export controls until November 2026 provides a temporary reprieve, but the underlying leverage remains intact. FORGE, Project Vault, and EU initiatives represent significant steps, but the gap between ambition and execution remains wide. The race for critical mineral independence will define geopolitical alignments, defense capabilities, and the pace of the global energy transition for decades to come.

China's rare-earth export restrictions

China's rare-earth export restrictions

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FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CNCLUSIONS ABOVE:

EXIM is already processing NioCorp's $800M loan.... \"let that sink in!\" ***MEANWHILE- NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

🚂💥 JUNE 2026: THE WORLD IS MOVING TOWARD ELK CREEK'S DOORSTEP 💥🚂

IMHO~As we enter what could be one of the most important months in NioCorp's history, the backdrop surrounding Elk Creek continues to strengthen. From FORGE and Project Vault to EXIM financing initiatives and growing concern over China's dominance of critical minerals, governments are no longer debating whether domestic supply chains are necessary—they are actively trying to build them. Against that backdrop, investors are now waiting for the next pieces of the NioCorp puzzle to fall into place.

Adding to the urgency, NioCorp CEO Mark Smith's recent Fox News op-ed delivered a message that could not have been clearer: China is not simply restricting critical minerals—it is pursuing a long-term strategy to keep the entire mine-to-magnet supply chain inside its borders. As Smith wrote, China is "deciding that selling raw materials is bad business" and instead intends to export finished products built from those materials. His conclusion was equally direct: "The only question left is whether the West will build its own supply chains in time."

NioCorp's Elk Creek project is set to create over 400 jobs (FOR MEN & WOMEN) during its construction phase. This project is a significant investment in Nebraska's critical minerals supply chain, aiming to strengthen domestic production and provide long-term economic opportunities. The construction of the mine portal is a crucial step in preparing for the underground mine's development, with the involvement of local officials and Nebraska-based contractors. The project's success is expected to contribute to Nebraska's economic growth and secure a reliable domestic supply of critical minerals.

See Link to Mark Smiths recent Fox News Op-Ed June 1st, 2026:

China permanently cutting off rare earth supply to West to boost manufacturing | Fox News

That is precisely why Elk Creek matters. NioCorp is not pursuing a single-metal mining project. The company is advancing a fully integrated U.S. critical minerals platform capable of producing niobium, scandium, titanium, and potentially magnet rare earth products from one strategically located domestic asset. In an era where governments are seeking secure, financeable, non-Chinese supply chains, Elk Creek checks many of the boxes policymakers continue to highlight.

Meanwhile, investors continue to wait for what could be the defining catalysts of 2026: completion of the definitive feasibility study, finalization of the Traxys commercial agreement and proposed $30 million anchor investment, and ultimately an EXIM financing decision. Should those pieces come together as anticipated, they would represent major de-risking milestones as portal development continues and the project advances toward potential full-scale construction.

The macro story is no longer theoretical. The United States is openly restructuring critical mineral policy around supply security, processing capability, and strategic domestic production. The question investors must answer is whether today's valuation properly reflects where Elk Creek could fit within that rapidly evolving landscape.

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As Mark Smith has repeatedly stated, Elk Creek is a "National Strategic Asset." If that assessment proves correct, then the market may eventually have to value NioCorp not as a speculative junior miner, but as a cornerstone piece of America's emerging critical minerals supply chain. Until then, the remaining catalysts sit directly ahead—and the window between today, the DFS, Traxys, and a potential EXIM FID continues to narrow with every passing business day!!! (I'm Thinking some folks might not want to miss the train....)

Eventually the market has to answer a very simple question: what is one of North America’s few advanced multi-mineral strategic supply platforms worth in a world openly racing to secure non-Chinese critical minerals supply?

🚂🔥 "All aboard!"... I can wait... can you?🚂🔥

Chico

June 1st, 2026~ Sprott Critical Materials ETF posts owning over 680k share of NioCorp

SETM Sprott Critical Materials ETF | Precious Metals & Critical Materials ETFs

With the Traxys offtake framework already announced & deal close at hand along with, the expected anchor investment still pending, the updated DFS targeted for June, and EXIM continuing through diligence, it’s reasonable to believe multiple pieces are moving at once and the window is tightening with every passing business day.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS:

💥 While the market waits for the remaining NioCorp catalysts to drop, it’s worth noting that Sprott is still sitting on more than 680,000 shares as of June 1, 2026. Meanwhile, the company remains positioned for what could be the most important stretch in its history: the definitive Feasibility Study, final Traxys offtake execution, the anticipated $30 million anchor investment, and ultimately an EXIM financing decision. The Elk Creek Project is not just a rare earth story—it’s a fully integrated U.S. critical minerals platform targeting niobium, scandium, titanium, and magnet rare earths, with multiple downstream growth pathways. As Mark Smith has repeatedly called it, a “National Strategic Asset.” The project is advancing while the world races to secure critical mineral supply chains, governments deploy billions through EXIM, Project Vault, and FORGE, and competitors command multi-billion-dollar valuations. Whether the market recognizes it today or not, the next few announcements have the potential to redefine the conversation entirely. Until then, patience remains the hardest position to hold—but sometimes the most rewarding.

Waiting with many for more material news as it becomes available! Let's Gooooo All aboard. 🚂🔥!!!

Chico

May 26th, 2026~Australia-India-Japan-US Quad unveil pact on critical minerals

Australia-India-Japan-US Quad unveil pact on critical minerals

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NEW DELHI - The foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan and the US agreed to jointly build a port in Fiji and signed pacts covering critical minerals and energy security, as they sought to inject fresh energy into the grouping.

The brief meeting between the countries' top diplomats - Australia's Penny Wong, India's S Jaishankar, Japan's Toshimitsu Motegi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio - was the third such gathering of the group known as Quad since September 2024.

The Quad meeting came as the US and Iran have been circling around a possible deal to end their three-month conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The group unveiled its first joint infrastructure project, a port in Fiji.

"We are going to be partnering on issues of port infrastructure, in particular in response to insufficient port capacity in the Pacific Islands, we are announcing plans to work with Fiji," Rubio said, adding that the initiative would be "a practical demonstration of our collective ability to deliver high-quality, resilient infrastructure."

The four-nation group had lost some momentum last year after failing to hold a leaders' summit, amid tensions between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over Washington's tariffs and other matters.

"We are beginning to show real achievements and real accomplishments," Rubio said. "We are deeply committed to this partnership. It is a linchpin and a cornerstone of our global strategy as a nation in the US."

He said the group agreed to launch an initiative on Indo-Pacific Energy Security and a critical minerals framework.

The minerals framework will guide how to leverage economic policy tools and coordinate investment to strengthen critical minerals supply chains - including in mining and processing - and in critical minerals recycling, Rubio said.

The initiative could be significant for Japan after China halted shipments of some minerals used in aerospace, defence and semiconductor industries following a diplomatic dispute.

Previous Quad meetings have put forward initiatives to maintain "the free and open maritime order" in the Indo-Pacific by improving information gathering on what is happening in their waters.

LEADERS' SUMMIT

New Delhi has pressed for a Trump visit to India, a trip that would likely be tied to a Quad summit. Analysts have questioned whether a lack of leader-level engagement has downgraded the Quad's importance.

Foreign ministers did not comment on the possibility of a summit later this year, but over the weekend, Rubio said that diplomats would work toward a meeting later this year.

"The absence of a leaders' summit has raised some doubts, but that does not necessarily indicate declining importance," said Premesha Saha, a senior policy fellow at the Asia Society Australia in Melbourne.

"If the Quad can keep delivering at the ministerial and working levels, it can remain relevant even without regular leaders-level signalling."

The Quad countries share concerns about China's growing power and Rubio - who arrived in India on Saturday for a four-day visit aimed at shoring up relations with New Delhi - has stressed the importance of maintaining a "free and open Indo-Pacific."

Beijing has criticized the Quad as a Cold War-style construct aimed at containing its development.

India, too, has territorial disputes with China, though Modi had signaled a willingness to improve ties with Beijing amid his tensions with Trump. 

A few reads with coffee...as we all wait for more material news!

May 2026~Strengthening Project Vault: The US Plan to Stockpile Critical Minerals

Policy Brief: 26-8 Strengthening Project Vault: The US plan to stockpile critical minerals

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See also:

Strengthening Project Vault: The US plan to stockpile critical minerals | PIIE

Key Takeaways

• Unlike the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Project Vault is designed as insurance against systemwide supply shocks, relying on private firms that pay subscription fees for access to reserves during disruptions, which makes it a hybrid of a futures market and a strategic reserve. 
• Voluntary participation would exclude both large self-insuring firms and small enterprises unaware of their exposure, hollowing out the risk pool in ways that could cause the program to fail when it is needed most. 
• Storing 60 highly differentiated minerals and processed derivatives is far more complex than stockpiling oil because supplies can degrade over time and often need to be processed to be usable during a crisis. 
• To be effective, Project Vault should require mandatory participation with fees scaled to firm size, fund against worst-case collective supply shocks, and prioritize processed materials over raw ore. 
• In the near term, building reserves of processed materials would likely depend on Chinese suppliers, making long-term investment in US and allied processing capacity critical.

Body

The United States depends heavily on imported critical minerals, including rare earth elements, needed for semiconductors, renewable energy, AI expansion, and defense systems. Because supply disruptions could seriously harm the economy and national security, the US government has launched Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private program to stockpile emergency supplies of critical minerals. Funded by a $10 billion EXIM Bank loan and $2 billion in private capital, the project is aimed at reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly China, and protecting American—and eventually allied-country—manufacturers from shortages. Project Vault’s design, however, raises important questions about its durability and day-to-day operations.

May 25th, 2026~Rare Earths Supply Chain 2026: Beyond the $1.6B FID and the Global Shift

Rare Earths Supply Chain 2026: Beyond the $1.6B FID and the Global Shift | Skillings

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The finalization of the $1.6 billion federal investment package for USA Rare Earth in early 2026 has fundamentally altered the trajectory of the global critical minerals market. For a decade, the rare earths supply chain was characterized by a “wait-and-see” approach from Western capital, deterred by China’s dominant market share and aggressive pricing strategies. That era ended in January 2026 when the U.S. government transitioned from nonbinding letters of intent to a finalized, high-stakes equity and debt position.

This capital injection, which includes a $1.3 billion senior secured loan and a significant equity stake, is more than a single-company bailout; it is the cornerstone of a broader 2026 rare earths supply chain shift. By de-risking the Round Top heavy rare earth project in Texas and the Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma, the deal has signaled to global investors that the midstream processing gap: long the “Achilles’ heel” of Western energy security: is finally being bridged.

The Stillwater/Round Top Nexus: Execution Over Intent

For years, the industry’s primary challenge was not the lack of ore, but the absence of specialized separation and magnet-making capacity outside of China. The $1.6 billion Final Investment Decision (FID) equivalent finalized this year targets exactly that bottleneck. The Stillwater facility is now on track to become the first domestic producer of sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets at scale since the closure of Magnequench decades ago.

The Round Top project, located in Hudspeth County, Texas, is equally critical. Unlike the light rare earth deposits that dominate most Western discoveries, Round Top is rich in heavy rare earths (HREE) like dysprosium and terbium. These minerals are essential for high-temperature magnet performance in electric vehicle (EV) motors and defense applications. With commercial production now pulled forward to 2028, the project represents the first viable alternative to the HREE mines of Southern China and Myanmar.

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Mapping the 2026 Global Processing Hubs

While the U.S. has captured headlines with the USA Rare Earth deal, the 2026 rare earths supply chain shift is a multi-polar phenomenon. We are seeing the emergence of three distinct non-Chinese processing corridors:

1. The North American Hub: Centered on Mountain Pass (MP Materials) in California, the Stillwater plant in Oklahoma, and the burgeoning separation capacity in Texas. This hub is increasingly vertically integrated, moving from ore to oxide to magnet within the USMCA trade block.
2. The Australian-Asian Hub: Australia has moved beyond being a mere exporter of concentrate. Iluka Resources’ Eneabba refinery is now processing heavy rare earths, while Arafura Rare Earths’ Nolans Project has progressed toward commissioning its integrated mine-to-oxide facility. This corridor relies on the strategic partnership with Malaysia (Lynas) and Japan’s technical expertise.
3. The European-African Nexus: Though trailing North America, the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act has accelerated projects in Scandinavia and established “green corridors” with African producers such as those in Malawi and Namibia.

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Domestic Sourcing: Breaking the Heavy RE Bottleneck

The 2026 landscape is defined by a pivot toward “Ionic Clay” deposits and heavy rare earth extraction. For too long, the West relied on hard-rock light rare earths (LREE), which are easier to process but less valuable for the energy transition. The emergence of Brazilian ionic clay projects, such as Meteoric Resources’ Caldeira and Viridis Mining’s Colossus, has introduced a new variable. These projects offer lower capital intensity and higher HREE concentrations compared to traditional hard-rock mines.

In the United States, the focus remains on ensuring that domestic sourcing is backed by domestic processing. The $1.6 billion commitment has forced a realization that mining without refining is a strategic dead end. As noted in the China critical minerals strategy analysis, the risk of export bans on processing technology remains high. Consequently, the 2026 shift is characterized by “technology on-shoring,” where firms are building proprietary separation circuits that do not rely on Chinese intellectual property.

Investor Implications: The “Friend-Shoring” Premium

For investors and mining operators, the 2026 rare earths supply chain is no longer a purely speculative venture. The “friend-shoring” premium is now tangible. Projects that align with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the Department of Energy (DOE) requirements are receiving lower-cost capital and guaranteed off-take agreements that provide a floor against price volatility.

However, the sector remains sensitive to operational risks. The technical challenge of rare earth separation is significant; many projects that achieved FID in 2024 are now grappling with commissioning delays and chemical reagent costs. Investors are increasingly looking past the resource size and focusing on the purity of the final oxide and the reliability of the midstream partner.

Looking Ahead: The 2026 Outlook

As we move through the second half of 2026, the rare earths market is entering its most critical phase: the transition from construction to commercial delivery. The $1.6 billion FID was the catalyst, but the true measure of success will be the volume of non-Chinese magnets entering the EV and defense supply chains by 2027.

The decoupling is not complete, but the map has changed. The concentration of supply is shifting from a single geography to a network of allied processing hubs. For operators and decision-makers, the priority has shifted from finding the next big deposit to securing the chemical expertise and state-backed financing required to survive a volatile market.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS AS ALWAYS:

EXIM is already processing NioCorp's $800M loan.... \"let that sink in!\" ***MEANWHILE- NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

It's Tuesday May 26, 2026 & still no official Traxys definitive agreement, no confirmed $30M anchor equity investment, and no updated DFS from NioCorp Developments team????

I’ll be honest the silence is getting harder to ignore, especially when the macro backdrop around critical minerals keeps getting louder by the day. But what’s wild is that while investors wait for NioCorp’s final catalyst stack to drop, the rest of the world is moving full speed ahead around the exact commodities Elk Creek is positioned to produce. Today the Quad nations — United States, Australia, India, and Japan — formally unveiled a new critical minerals framework focused on coordinated investment, supply-chain security, processing, recycling, and strategic infrastructure. That’s not theoretical anymore. That’s government-level alignment around exactly the type of project Elk Creek represents.

At the same time, “Project Vault” continues gaining traction in Washington as policymakers openly discuss strategic stockpiling of critical minerals tied to defense, energy security, aerospace, magnets, and industrial resilience. Add that to the massive federal backing already flowing into USA Rare Earth, the recent POSCO Holdings partnership announcement, the 2027 sourcing bans approaching fast, and China’s continued leverage over heavy rare earth exports & it becomes increasingly difficult to understand why Elk Creek still feels overlooked by the broader market. Niobium, scandium, titanium, NdPr, dysprosium, terbium… these are no longer niche commodities. They are rapidly becoming strategic national-security materials.

NioCorp's Elk Creek project is set to create over 400 jobs (FOR MEN & WOMEN) during its construction phase. This project is a significant investment in Nebraska's critical minerals supply chain, aiming to strengthen domestic production and provide long-term economic opportunities. The construction of the mine portal is a crucial step in preparing for the underground mine's development, with the involvement of local officials and Nebraska-based contractors. The project's success is expected to contribute to Nebraska's economic growth and secure a reliable domestic supply of critical minerals.

And that’s what makes the current disconnect with NioCorp feel so extreme. Elk Creek is not an early exploration story anymore. The ore body is known. The metallurgy has been tested. The site is permitted. The underground ramp is being developed right now. Over $500M has been raised historically. Roughly $45M has already gone into the ongoing portal work. EXIM remains engaged. Existing commercial relationships are already in place. And Elk Creek still offers six separate pathways to future revenue: ferroniobium/Nb₂O₅, scandium oxide and potential ScAl alloy, titanium products including possible TiCl₄ integration, magnet rare earth production pending the updated DFS, future refining/recycling, and eventual mine-to-metal-to-alloy optionality inside North America and allied supply chains. Very few Western projects check that many strategic boxes at once.

Which brings us back to the catalysts everyone is waiting on: Traxys definitive agreement… the reported potential $30M strategic equity investment… the updated DFS… EXIM Final Investment Decision… and then direct transition from ramp completion into full-scale construction. When that sequence lands, the market narrative changes immediately. At that point NioCorp is no longer “trying to finance a mine.” It becomes a financed and advancing domestic strategic critical-minerals platform with direct relevance to U.S. defense, aerospace, steel, magnets, industrial alloys, and Western supply-chain independence. That is a completely different valuation framework than where shares trade today.

The market still appears to be pricing uncertainty and delay. But the macro world outside of NioCorp has already moved on as governments are funding, stockpiling, partnering, reshoring, and securing supply now. Every week another headline reinforces why projects like Elk Creek matter. Which is why the valuation gap versus peers feels so difficult to justify.

Elk Creek remains stuck near $5 despite potentially being one of the most diversified and strategically important undeveloped critical-mineral assets in the United States. Frustrating? Absolutely. But "When"~ the Traxys + DFS + EXIM FID hit over the coming weeks, the market may be forced to reprice Elk Creek against what it actually is — not what it used to be.

Eventually the market has to answer a very simple question: what is one of North America’s few advanced multi-mineral strategic supply platforms worth in a world openly racing to secure non-Chinese critical minerals supply?

Until then… we shareholders wait. But the broader critical-minerals map keeps shifting in Elk Creek’s favor almost by the week. And eventually the market has to answer a very simple question: what is one of North America’s few advanced multi-mineral strategic supply platforms worth in a world openly racing to secure non-Chinese critical minerals supply?

Waiting with many... "All aboard!"

Chico

May 22nd, 2026-Posco partners with U.S. rare earth company to build $200M production facility

Posco partners with U.S. rare earth company to build $200M production facility

Posco International CEO Lee Kye-in, fifth from left, poses for a commemorative photo with attendees after signing an agreement with U.S.-based ReElement Technologies Corporation in Washington, D.C., on Thursday to pursue a joint venture for rare earth separation and refining production. [YONHAP]

Posco International is partnering with a rare earth refining company to build a $200 million production facility in the United States, as Korea seeks to reduce its dependence on China-dominated supply chains for critical minerals used in EVs, robots and AI infrastructure. 
 
The local trading and energy giant said Friday that it had signed an agreement the previous day with U.S.-based ReElement Technologies Corporation in Washington, D.C., to establish a joint venture for rare earth separation and refining production in the United States.  

The two companies are set to build a rare earth separation and refining plant with an annual production capacity of 6,000 tons. Posco will hold a controlling stake and oversee management of the joint venture, while ReElement will provide core refining technology. 
 
The companies also aim to eventually build an integrated production complex capable of manufacturing permanent magnets, a critical component used in electric vehicles, robots and AI data centers. 

The partnership marks a broader industrial cooperation effort between Korea and the United States to diversify the global rare earth supply chain, which is heavily concentrated in China. Rare earth materials, particularly heavy rare-earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium, are critical for advanced industries including EV motors, robots and AI data centers.
 
China dominates the worldwide production of powerful industrial magnets — specifically those made from a rare metal called neodymium — making up 92 percent of the world's supply, according to a report by the Korea International Trade Association. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium are produced entirely in China as well. 

Industry observers also expect the joint venture to adopt a more environmentally friendly refining process than conventional Chinese methods. Separating rare earth elements is widely considered more technically difficult than mining them. ReElement Technologies, however, has developed a water-based ion chromatography technology that separates rare earth elements individually based on differences in extraction timing. The method is considered simpler and more environmentally friendly than China’s conventional process, which relies heavily on toxic solvents.
 
Posco said it is currently scouting locations for the facility. In the first phase, the plant plans to produce 3,000 tons of refined rare earth materials annually before expanding to 6,000 tons in a second phase. If the project proceeds as planned, pilot production is expected to begin in the fourth quarter of next year, with full-scale commercial production targeted for 2028.
 
Initially, the plant will produce neodymium-praseodymium oxide — a key material for permanent magnets — as well as heavy rare earth oxides. The company added that it plans to later expand into permanent magnet manufacturing.
 
Shinhan Securities described the project as “an opportunity to secure a clear non-China supply chain premium in the permanent magnet market dominated by China.”
 
Posco said it also plans to secure raw materials through mining investments in Southeast Asia while accelerating efforts to build an integrated value chain with ReElement Technologies in the United States, spanning rare earth refining to permanent magnet production.
 
“The combination of both companies’ global supply chain capabilities and innovative refining technologies will create significant synergy,” Posco International CEO Lee Kye-in said.

May 22nd, 2026- USA Rare Earth Wins Up to $19.3M DOE Backing for Colorado Facility

Rare Earth Minerals USA Rare Earth DOE FundingSilicon Review

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USA Rare Earth secured up to $19.3 million from the DOE to build a rare earth oxide demonstration facility in Colorado. The Silicon Review reports on the domestic supply chain push and the Round Top project.

USA Rare Earth has been awarded up to $19.3 million by the US Department of Energy to support the design and construction of a rare earth oxide demonstration facility at its Colorado campus. The funding will be used to produce sintered rare earth permanent magnets for advanced automotive and clean energy applications.

The rare earth minerals project is part of a broader federal push to secure domestic supply chains for critical materials. The company's Round Top project in West Texas, a heavy rare earth deposit, is scheduled to start production in late 2027.

The demonstration facility at USA Rare Earth's Wheat Ridge, Colorado campus will combine rare earth oxide feedstocks from various global sources to produce sintered magnets. This capability will allow the company to provide a steady supply of magnets for advanced technologies while it continues to develop its Round Top mine.

The rare earth elements produced at the facility are essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense systems, and medical devices. Permanent magnets made from neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium cannot be easily substituted, and China currently controls 92 percent of global refining capacity.

The DOE funding builds on a previous 2.5 million grant to USA Rare Earth in 2024 for a magnet recycling feasibility study. The company is also matching the federal contribution with its own investment, bringing the total project value to over 38 million.

The Colorado facility is expected to create 50 direct jobs and support an additional 200 indirect jobs in the region. Construction is slated to begin in the third quarter of 2026, with initial magnet production targeted for mid-2027.

The project aligns with the Biden administration's Defense Production Act Title III investments, which have allocated over $200 million to establish a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain since 2022.

The Silicon Review's analysis indicates that USA Rare Earth's DOE award represents a small but critical piece of the larger puzzle to break China's rare earth monopoly. The demonstration facility will not replace Chinese supply but will prove that domestic production is technically and economically viable.

Q: How much funding did USA Rare Earth receive from the Department of Energy?
A: USA Rare Earth was awarded up to $19.3 million from the DOE to support design and construction of a rare earth oxide demonstration facility in Colorado.

Q: Where is USA Rare Earth's Round Top project located?
A: The Round Top project is located in West Texas and is a heavy rare earth deposit scheduled to start production in late 2027.

Q: What will the Colorado demonstration facility produce?
A: The facility will produce sintered rare earth permanent magnets for advanced automotive and clean energy applications, using oxide feedstocks from various global sources.

Q: What rare earth minerals are essential for permanent magnets?
A: Permanent magnets require neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. China currently controls 92 percent of global refining capacity for these critical minerals.

Q: How many jobs will the Colorado facility create?
A: The facility is expected to create 50 direct jobs and support an additional 200 indirect jobs in the region.

Q: When will initial magnet production begin at the Colorado facility?
A: Construction is slated to begin in the third quarter of 2026, with initial magnet production targeted for mid-2027.

May 22nd, 2026~USA Rare Earth stock jumps as DOE funding fuels growth optimism

USA Rare Earth stock jumps as DOE funding fuels growth optimism

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Shares of USA Rare Earth USAR moved 8% higher on Thursday after the company was selected for potential funding from the US Department of Energy under its “Critical Materials Innovation, Efficiency and Alternatives” program.

The move added fresh momentum to a stock already benefiting from renewed interest in domestic rare earth supply chains. The funding package, which could total up to $19.3 million pending final negotiations, is intended to support the development of a pilot-scale rare earth element separations project aimed at strengthening US processing capacity for materials critical to energy, technology, and defense applications.

The announcement came as rare earth stocks broadly rebounded following a recent selloff tied to speculation that China could loosen export restrictions on certain critical minerals.

USA Rare Earth shares rose after already rallying more than 13% on Wednesday. The company’s stock has gained nearly 160% over the past 12 months.

DOE funding strengthens domestic supply chain push

The Department of Energy initiative highlights ongoing efforts by the US government to reduce dependence on China for strategically important rare earth materials.

USA Rare Earth said the funding would help advance pilot-scale rare earth separation capabilities within the United States, an area viewed as increasingly important for national security and industrial policy.

The company previously announced in January that the Commerce Department planned to provide up to $1.6 billion in support, including $277 million in cash and a $1.3 billion loan.

According to the company, that transaction is expected to be finalized this month.

Rare earth materials remain essential to a wide range of industries, including defense systems, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and energy infrastructure.

Recent geopolitical tensions have intensified attention on the sector after China imposed export restrictions on several critical minerals used in military and industrial applications.

According to William Blair analyst Neal Dingmann, pricing for some rare earth materials outside China has risen roughly 400% compared with domestic Chinese prices because of the restrictions.

China’s Ministry of Commerce recently said it would work to resolve “legitimate and lawful concerns” regarding rare earth exports while maintaining export controls for military-related uses. Earnings beat expectations

USA Rare Earth also reported quarterly results that exceeded analyst expectations.

The company posted a first-quarter adjusted loss of 12 cents per share, narrower than Wall Street estimates for a 14-cent loss.

Revenue totaled $5.7 million during the quarter, surpassing analyst expectations of approximately $4.2 million.

The company engages in the mining, processing, and supply of rare earth elements, which are increasingly viewed as critical materials in global manufacturing and defense supply chains.

Investor sentiment toward the sector has improved in recent weeks amid growing concerns about long-term supply shortages and rising demand tied to defense production and clean energy technologies.

Technical momentum remains strong

USA Rare Earth has continued to show strong technical momentum despite recent volatility across the broader rare earth sector.

The stock is currently trading slightly below its 20-day simple moving average of $24.54 but remains well above its 50-day moving average.

The company’s Relative Strength Index stood at 48.24, indicating neutral momentum conditions without signaling either overbought or oversold territory.

Analyst sentiment also remains positive.

Wedbush maintained an Outperform rating with a $35 price target earlier this month, while Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating and also raised its target to $35.

The stock currently carries an average analyst price target of $34.25 and a broader Buy consensus among analysts.

A few reads with coffee...

May 21st, 2026~CRML Executes a 15-Year Binding Definitive Off-Take Agreement for Tanbreez with REalloys Inc. Which Supports US Defense & National Security Industrial Base Supply Chains

CRML Executes a 15-Year Binding Definitive Off-Take Agreement for Tanbreez with REalloys Inc. Which Supports US Defense & National Security Industrial Base Supply Chains

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NEW YORK, May 21, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Critical Metals Corp. (Nasdaq: CRML) (“Critical Metals Corp” or the “Company”), a leading critical minerals mining company, today announced the execution of a definitive 15-year binding offtake agreement with REalloys Inc. (NASDAQ: ALOY) for rare earth element concentrate from its flagship Tanbreez Project in Southern Greenland—one of the largest and most significant heavy rare earth deposits globally.

This landmark agreement follows the Government of Greenland’s April 17, 2026 approval of Critical Metals’ ownership increase to 92.5% of the Tanbreez Project, representing a decisive milestone that fully consolidates operational control and unlocks the project’s long-term commercial potential. The agreement formalizes and significantly expands upon the parties’ October 2025 Letter of Intent, extending the original ten-year framework into a 15-year binding contract with two additional five-year extension options.

A Defining Commercial Validation of Tanbreez

Under the agreement, REalloys will purchase 15% of Tanbreez’s annual rare earth concentrate production, with priority rights in respect of concentrate volumes containing elevated concentrations of the critical heavy rare earth elements dysprosium and terbium, together with a Right of First Refusal over additional volumes.

This long-term commitment underscores the strategic importance of Tanbreez and provides powerful third-party validation of its role as a cornerstone asset in the emerging Western rare earth ecosystem.

With global supply chains undergoing rapid realignment, the agreement positions Critical Metals at the center of a generational shift toward secure, non-Chinese sources of critical minerals—particularly as U.S. defense procurement restrictions coming into force in 2027 mandate the exclusion of Chinese-origin rare earth materials.

Tony Sage, Chairman of CRML, commented:

“This agreement marks a pivotal inflection point for Critical Metals and unequivocally validates Tanbreez as a world-class, development-stage asset of global strategic importance. With 92.5% ownership secured and strong governmental backing in Greenland, we have established full control over one of the most significant heavy rare earth deposits outside of China.”

“Partnering with REalloys—a U.S.-based, defense-focused, vertically integrated platform—ensures that our production will directly support the rapidly growing demand for secure, compliant supply chains. This 15-year binding offtake agreement not only underpins the long-term commercial viability of Tanbreez, but also positions Critical Metals as a key supplier to the Western world at a time of accelerating geopolitical and industrial transformation.”

Leonard "Lipi" Sternheim**, CEO of** REalloys**, commented:**

"This agreement is a defining milestone for REalloys and for the Western rare earth supply chain. With Critical Metals now holding 92.5% ownership of Tanbreez and the full backing of the Greenlandic Government, we are entering this fifteen-year partnership with a single consolidated counterparty that has both the mandate and the resources to deliver. By extending the term, securing priority rights in respect of concentrate volumes containing elevated concentrations of the critical heavy rare earth elements dysprosium and terbium, and establishing a Right of First Refusal on additional volumes, we have transformed a letter of intent into one of the most significant long-term heavy rare earth supply commitments in the Western hemisphere. Combined with our Saskatchewan Research Council partnership, our Hoidas Lake resource, and our Euclid, Ohio metallization platform, REalloys now has feedstock security, processing capability, and downstream manufacturing under one integrated umbrella. This is precisely what the United States requires as the 2027 defense procurement restrictions take effect."

Unmatched Strategic Positioning

Tanbreez is widely recognized as one of the world’s premier heavy rare earth and critical metals deposits, distinguished by its high concentrations of heavy rare earth elements dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium—essential inputs for high-performance permanent magnets used in defense systems, electric vehicles, wind energy, robotics, and advanced manufacturing.

In addition, the Tanbreez deposit has significant volumes of hafnium, cerium, lanthanum, niobium and zirconium, which are increasingly important in semiconductor, microchip and advanced technology applications, including infrastructure supporting the growth of artificial intelligence technologies.

By securing a long-term offtake with a U.S.-based, vertically integrated partner, Critical Metals has taken a major step toward monetizing this world-class resource while ensuring alignment with Western defense, energy, and industrial priorities.

The Greenland Government’s support and the Company’s consolidated 92.5% ownership significantly de-risk project execution, positioning Tanbreez as one of the most advanced and strategically aligned rare earth development projects globally.

Accelerating Toward Production

The agreement strengthens the commercial foundation of the Tanbreez Project as Critical Metals advances development toward first production on an accelerated timeline. In collaboration with REalloys, the Company will optimize metallurgical processes, refine product specifications, and establish efficient logistics pathways to integrate Tanbreez concentrate into downstream processing and magnet manufacturing supply chains.

A Cornerstone Asset for a New Era

As nations and industries prioritize supply chain resilience and independence, Critical Metals is uniquely positioned to deliver long-term value through its ownership of Tanbreez—an asset now firmly established as a cornerstone of the Western rare earth supply chain.

Deliveries under the agreement will be made FOB Tanbreez port in Southern Greenland, with pricing linked to international rare earth oxide benchmarks on an element-by-element basis. Commercial shipments are expected to commence following the start of production.

May 19th, 2026~DOE funding targets U.S. minerals processing

DOE funding targets U.S. minerals processing - Metal Tech News

The Department of Energy~ DOE selected 19 projects to share $45.7 million for pilot-scale and next-generation critical materials technologies.

$45.7M backs rare earths, magnesium and recovery tech.

Aiming to move more critical minerals processing and materials production into the United States, the U.S. Department of Energy has selected 19 projects to share $45.7 million in federal funding for pilot-scale and next-generation technologies meant to strengthen domestic supply chains.

While the United States hosts substantial mineral resources and a growing pipeline of projects tied to energy, defense, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing, it remains dependent on foreign sources for many of the processing and production steps needed to turn raw or secondary feedstocks into usable critical materials.

That gap has kept federal attention focused not only on mining, but on the technologies needed to recover, separate, refine, and manufacture strategic materials from a wider range of domestic sources, including ore, industrial waste, mine waste, recycled feedstocks, and other unconventional streams.

Moving from that supply-chain challenge into project funding, DOE's Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation said the selections will support pilot-scale facilities for processing magnesium and rare earth elements, as well as earlier-stage technologies that could be used in critical materials production.

"Reshoring minerals production and processing will strengthen our domestic rare earth supply chains from end to end," said Assistant Secretary of Energy Audrey Robertson. "By ensuring the minerals that are mined in America can be processed in America and manufactured into American technologies, these investments will bolster America's national security and energy independence."

Structured through DOE's Critical Material Innovation, Efficiency, and Alternatives funding opportunity, the federal support is aimed at developing domestic critical mineral supply from sources across the United States, including ore deposits, mine and industrial waste, and recycled materials.

The largest awards fall under DOE's pilot-scale facility category, where selected projects are meant to advance rare earth separation and magnesium metal production toward pre-commercial and commercial-scale development.

A second group of selections falls under DOE's next-generation technologies area, which supports bench-scale development of new approaches that could be used in the production, recovery, separation, or concentration of critical materials.

Those projects include work tied to graphite, lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth elements, manganese, silicon, and other materials, with feedstocks ranging from ore and brines to recycled batteries, coal waste, end-of-life magnets, industrial residues, and dilute wastewaters.

Selected projects are led by national laboratories, universities, research institutes, and private companies across the United States, with DOE and non-DOE project values ranging from $700,000 to $50.5 million.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

WoW...! The disconnect here is honestly becoming impossible to ignore. While the entire Western world is openly panicking over critical mineral security, NioCorp still sits around a ~$600–700M market cap & trading near $5/share — despite controlling one of the ONLY fully integrated, multi-mineral critical minerals projects in North America. Meanwhile governments are throwing billions at anything tied to niobium, scandium, titanium, rare earths, magnets, and defense supply chains. Just THIS WEEK alone we saw a new $200M U.S. partnership facility emerge while the DOE moved toward another $19.3M in support for USAR’s separation capabilities. USAR now sits around a multi-billion valuation with massive government backing, and Elk Creek arguably has broader strategic optionality across SIX separate critical mineral pathways. That valuation gap is becoming absolutely staggering in my opinion.

What makes this even crazier is that Elk Creek is NOT some early-stage exploration fantasy anymore. The ore body is defined. The site is permitted. Metallurgy has been proven. Pilot work is done. Over $500M has already been raised historically. The dual-portal underground ramp is already under construction. EXIM is deep into due diligence. Existing offtakes are already in place. And now the market is waiting on what could become the final “de-risking sequence”: the signed Traxys definitive agreement, Traxys strategic equity investment, the updated DFS, EXIM Final Investment Decision, and transition directly into full construction potentially by September 2026. Once those dominoes fall, the market can no longer value NioCorp as “a company trying to build a mine.” It starts valuing it as a strategic U.S. industrial platform tied directly into defense, aerospace, advanced alloys, magnet supply chains, and Western industrial policy.

And look at the backdrop forming literally RIGHT NOW. Project Blue’s Critical Materials Conference is centered around defense metals, scandium, titanium, heavy rare earths, aerospace alloys, magnets, gallium, germanium, and supply-chain sovereignty. The U.S. government keeps warning about China’s leverage over rare earth exports. Defense contractors are scrambling ahead of the 2027 sourcing restrictions. Heavy rare earth export controls from China remain in place. NdPr, Dy, and Tb are increasingly viewed as strategic weapons-grade materials for the next industrial cycle. At the same time, Traxys is actively positioning itself globally across critical minerals and downstream supply chains. Right in the middle of ALL of that sits Elk Creek — one of the only advanced U.S. projects capable of supplying ferroniobium, scandium oxide, titanium products, and magnet rare earths from a single integrated operation.

Elk Creek isn’t just a niobium mine. It’s potentially: ferroniobium and Nb₂O₅ for aerospace and defense alloys; scandium oxide and future ScAl alloy production; titanium dioxide and future TiCl₄ vertical integration; NdPr plus Dy/Tb magnet rare earth production pending the DFS; future recycling/refining integration; and eventually a full mine-to-metal-to-alloy manufacturing ecosystem in the U.S. and allied nations.

The six pathways are what make this story uniquely powerful and probably why institutions appear to be quietly accumulating while retail loses patience waiting for news. Elk Creek isn’t just a niobium mine. It’s potentially: ferroniobium and Nb₂O₅ for aerospace and defense alloys; scandium oxide and future ScAl alloy production; titanium dioxide and future TiCl₄ vertical integration; NdPr plus Dy/Tb magnet rare earth production pending the DFS; future recycling/refining integration; and eventually a full mine-to-metal-to-alloy manufacturing ecosystem in the U.S. and allied nations.

MEANWHILE.... Mark Smith indicated end-April/early-May for the Traxys structure, and now we’re sitting here on May 22nd still waiting for the definitive agreement, the reported potential $30M anchor investment, and the updated DFS. Meanwhile Arafura crossed the finish line because it’s essentially a one-metal NdPr project.

Thinking- NioCorp is trying to structure a far more complex six-metal strategic package involving EXIM, defense relevance, multiple downstream pathways, and what increasingly looks like a globally significant Western supply-chain anchor. Traxys "May" already have the DFS data under NDA?? If that’s true, then it’s very possible they’re simply waiting for the updated DFS publication before executing binding agreements publicly. If the sequence hits — Traxys definitive agreement → updated DFS → EXIM FID → full construction — the re-rating could happen FAST because suddenly the market is forced to price future production instead of development risk!

That’s why the current valuation feels so disconnected. We’re watching companies with narrower exposure and smaller optionality receive billion-dollar valuations, DOE backing, strategic partnerships, and institutional sponsorship while NioCorp still trades like a forgotten penny stock despite arguably being one of the most advanced multi-critical-minerals projects in the entire United States.

\"What is one of the only integrated North American critical-minerals platforms worth at the exact moment the West is desperately trying to break China’s dominance over magnets, alloys, aerospace materials, and defense supply chains? THAT is the question the market may soon be forced to answer!!\"

The market today is still pricing uncertainty I guess.... But uncertainty disappears the moment the financing stack locks in and construction officially transitions into full build mode. At that point the question becomes brutally simple: What is one of the only integrated North American critical-minerals platforms worth at the exact moment the West is desperately trying to break China’s dominance over magnets, alloys, aerospace materials, and defense supply chains? THAT is the question the market may soon be forced to answer!

"All aboard...!" Waiting with many for material news as it becomes available.... & staying tuned!

Chico

May 20th, 2026~USA Rare Earth Gets An Upgrade As Government Redefines Sector Risk

USA Rare Earth Gets An Upgrade As Government Redefines Sector Risk

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USA Rare Earth is shaping up as the go-to rare earth stock in the West, according to Cantor Fitzgerald.

The firm's analysts, Derek Soderberg and Drew Nordquist, raised their 12-month price targets to $35 from $30, reiterating an Overweight rating.

There are several catalysts supporting the bull case. Production is accelerating, a transformative acquisition is closing, European production is expanding, and the strong U.S. government backing is de-risking the investment thesis.

From Mine to Magnet

USAR commissioned phase 1a of its Stillwater, Oklahoma, magnet manufacturing facility in March, setting up initial commercial shipments for the second quarter of 2026. The 600 metric tons per year production line should reach full run-rate capacity by year-end, with phase 1b bringing total Stillwater capacity to 1,200 metric tons in the first quarter of 2027.

Revenue estimates more than doubled in the latest note, with 2026 projections rising to $80.8 million from a prior $40.4 million, and 2027 estimates surging to $453.3 million from $197.2 million.

Closing the Loop

The revision reflects the inclusion of Serra Verde‘s contribution following an expected third-quarter acquisition close. After the share appreciation, the $2.8 billion transaction is now worth closer to $3.64 billion.

The Brazilian miner is one of the few large-scale producers of heavy rare-earth elements outside China. Thus, it has an outsized impact on efforts to reduce dependence on Asian supply chains.

USAR expects Serra Verde to achieve annualized run-rate EBITDA of $550–$650 million by end-2027, with the combined entity targeting approximately $1.8 billion in annualized EBITDA by end-2030.

Alongside the Serra Verde deal, USAR’s Less Common Metals (LCM) subsidiary in Cheshire, UK, achieved its first commercial pour of 99%–99.5% purity yttrium metal in April — a milestone for aerospace-grade thermal barrier coatings. LCM is targeting 3,000 MTPA of metal-making and alloy capacity by year-end.

A strategic investment in French firm Carester further extends the European platform, with plans for a 3,750 MTPA plant in Lacq, France, co-located with Carester’s oxide and recycling facility.

Mobilization of Public Capital

Arguably, the most significant event is the pending $1.6 billion Department of Commerce funding agreement under the CHIPS Program. This deal (expected to finalize this month), alongside a $1.5 billion common stock PIPE closed in January and a $1.75 billion cash pile as of March 31, was the main driver behind the valuation upgrade.

The government support is not unique to USAR. The Trump administration has committed roughly $18.6 billion in financing for critical minerals across 60 projects, according to BMO Global analysts George Heppel and Max Yerrill.

“Never before in the USA’s history have we seen a mobilization of capital and policy in support of critical mineral supply at the scale of what has been achieved in the past two years,” the BMO analysts wrote, calling it a “great financial pivot.”

Yet, the large skew toward rare earths came at the expense of tungsten, antimony, nickel, cobalt, and other strategically important metals.

The government support is not unique to USAR. The Trump administration has committed roughly $18.6 billion in financing for critical minerals across 60 projects, according to BMO Global analysts George Heppel and Max Yerrill.

“Never before in the USA’s history have we seen a mobilization of capital and policy in support of critical mineral supply at the scale of what has been achieved in the past two years,” the BMO analysts wrote, calling it a “great financial pivot.”

Yet, the large skew toward rare earths came at the expense of tungsten, antimony, nickel, cobalt, and other strategically important metals.

Supply chain security beyond 2027 is another concern, particularly for heavy rare earths. While light rare-earth feedstock agreements are in place through that year, analysts warn that securing dysprosium and terbium supply thereafter — absent a fully integrated supply chain — could put long-term earnings at risk.

Environmental compliance obligations and a thin domestic talent pool in rare earth processing round out the key risk factors.

A few reads with your morning brew of choice...

NioCorp is/was there....

Project Blue is pleased to announce its inaugural Critical Materials Conference: Aerospace & Defence 2026, taking place in Washington DC from 19-20 May.

The conference will bring together stakeholders from across the aerospace and defence value chains to explore the critical raw materials enabling advanced manufacturing, national security, and next-generation technologies.

The programme will feature data-led presentations and strategic panel discussions, covering topics such as supply chain resilience, US industrial policy, and material demand outlooks for sectors including fighter jets and drones.

The agenda will also examine battery and semiconductor supply chains through a dual-use lens, as shared reliance on materials is exposing vulnerabilities tied to China-centric production, intensifying debates around export controls, industrial policy, and long-term supply chain security.

Join us in Washington DC for expert insights on key raw materials, including antimony, aluminium, copper, cobalt, gallium, germanium, graphite, indium, lithium, magnesium, nickel, rhenium, rare earths, scandium, silicon, tantalum, tin, titanium, tungsten, and vanadium.

Events

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NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

May 20th, 2026 ~ China Says Rare Earth Controls Lawful, Will Cooperate With US on 'Reasonable' Concerns

China Says Rare Earth Controls Lawful, Will Cooperate With US on 'Reasonable' Concerns

FILE PHOTO: A block with the symbol, atomic number and mass number of Yttrium (Y) element, in this illustration taken January 21, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

China agreed to address concerns around shortages of rare earths such as yttrium and scandium as well as other critical minerals ​during the leaders' summit in Beijing last week, the White House said ⁠on ⁠Sunday.

In response to questions ⁠about that ​statement, China's Ministry of Commerce said both sides had discussed the issue and ​would study and ⁠resolve "each other's reasonable and lawful concerns."

"The Chinese government imposes export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals in accordance with laws and regulations, and reviews applications for compliant, civilian licenses," the statement added.

Issued days apart, the two ⁠statements reflect a new status quo where Washington appears to tacitly accept ⁠the export restrictions. In contrast, six months ago after the leaders' summit in Busan, the White House said they would be dismantled.

ANOTHER YTTRIUM SHIPMENT

Shortages have been most acute for yttrium, which is used to protect turbine blades in aircraft engines or power plants from extreme heat. 

The rare earth issue was highlighted in Sunday's White House statement and a separate interview with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Chinese ⁠customs data also released on Wednesday showed a 10-metric-ton export of yttrium oxide to the U.S. in April, versus 60 tons in March. 

Shipments averaged about 30 tons a month over the 13 months before ​controls were imposed versus 8 tons since.

May 20th, 2026-Chinese, US trade teams hold extensive discussions on rare-earth export control issues, will jointly study solutions to each other's legitimate concerns: MOFCOM

Chinese, US trade teams hold extensive discussions on rare-earth export control issues, will jointly study solutions to each other's legitimate concerns: MOFCOM - Global Times

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Asked to comment on the White House’s statement that China will address US concerns about shortages in the supply chain of rare earths and other critical minerals (including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium), and the US concerns about the ban or restriction on the sale of rare earth production and processing equipment and technology, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said on Wednesday that the China-US economic and trade teams have conducted in-depth communication and exchanges on relevant export control issues, and the two sides will jointly study and resolve each other’s legitimate and lawful concerns. 

The MOFCOM said that the Chinese government imposes export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals in accordance with laws and regulations, and reviews license applications for compliant civilian uses. China is willing to work with the US to promote mutually beneficial cooperation between enterprises of the two countries and create favorable conditions for ensuring the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains, the ministry said.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

Pending Traxys Deal, DFS & EXIM FID are all in motion.... waiting with many!

The disconnect right now is honestly staggering imho. On one side you have a sub-$5 NB market cap sitting around ~$600–650M while the entire Western world is openly scrambling for secure domestic supply of niobium, scandium, titanium, heavy rare earths, NdPr, Dy, Tb, and downstream magnet/alloy capacity. On the other side you have governments throwing BILLIONS at anything remotely capable of breaking China’s stranglehold on critical minerals. Meanwhile, NioCorp already has the ore body, permitted site, metallurgy, pilot work, underground development started, EXIM engagement, existing offtakes, and now a pending Traxys structure that potentially covers virtually the ENTIRE first decade of production. That’s why so many investors are scratching their heads at a $4.93 share price today including me!! =)

What the market seems to still be waiting for is the “de-risking sequence” to become official in black-and-white:

1. signed Traxys definitive agreement,
2. Traxys strategic equity investment,
3. updated DFS proving expanded economics and reserves,
4. EXIM Final Investment Decision, and finally
5. transition from portal work directly into full mine construction.

Once those dominoes fall, Elk Creek stops being viewed as a speculative development story and starts being viewed as a strategic North American industrial platform. That is a completely different valuation framework.

And look at the backdrop forming literally THIS WEEK. Project Blue Critical Materials Conference is centered around aerospace, defense, magnets, scandium, titanium, rare earths, gallium, germanium, and supply-chain security. The U.S. government is openly warning about Chinese rare-earth leverage. Defense contractors are panicking over the 2027 sourcing bans. China’s heavy REE export controls remain in place. Traxys is simultaneously locking up future NdPr/DyTb supply globally. And right in the middle of that sits Elk Creek — one of the ONLY advanced U.S. projects capable of supplying multiple critical mineral streams from one integrated operation.

The reason institutions appear to be accumulating here between $5–6 is likely because they understand something retail still struggles to grasp: once financing is secured, the market no longer values NioCorp as “a company trying to build a mine.” It starts valuing it as a future strategic producer tied directly into U.S. defense, aerospace, advanced alloys, magnet supply chains, and industrial policy. That’s the inflection point everyone is waiting for!

And the six pathways are what make Elk Creek uniquely dangerous to ignore:

• Ferroniobium / Nb₂O₅ for steel, aerospace, pipelines, defense alloys
• Scandium oxide and future ScAl master alloy production
• Titanium dioxide and TiCl₄ vertical integration
• Magnet rare earths (NdPr + Dy/Tb) All pending DFS!
• Future recycling / refining integration
• Mine-to-metal-to-alloy manufacturing optionality in the U.S. and allied nations

If Mark Smith & team NioCorp land the Traxys definitive agreement, publishes a materially expanded DFS, secures EXIM FID, and moves directly from ramp completion into full construction by ~September 2026, then the narrative changes FAST. At that point the market has to ask itself a brutally simple question:

What is the strategic value of one of the only fully integrated domestic critical minerals platforms in North America at the exact moment the West is trying to decouple from China? T.B.D.!

What is the strategic value of one of the only fully integrated domestic critical minerals platforms in North America at the exact moment the West is trying to decouple from China? T.B.D.! ...\"All aboard!\"

While traders obsess over delays of a few weeks on the Traxys binding agreement or the final DFS release, the bigger picture keeps getting louder: Elk Creek is evolving into one of the very few fully integrated U.S. critical minerals platforms capable of supplying niobium, scandium, titanium, magnetic rare earths, ScAl alloys, and potentially future recycling/magnet feedstock into the American defense-industrial base. That is exactly why institutions have been quietly adding in the $5–6 range while Washington is pouring tens of billions into domestic supply chain security.

Mark Smith has repeatedly called Elk Creek a “national strategic asset,” and honestly, the evidence increasingly supports that statement. The U.S. has no primary domestic niobium production, virtually no meaningful scandium production, limited heavy rare earth capability, and major defense vulnerabilities tied to China’s control over dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, and magnet supply chains. Meanwhile, NioCorp already has permitted infrastructure, a completed FS baseline, ongoing EXIM engagement, a near-finished portal/ramp program, multiple commercial pathways, and now a pending Traxys framework designed to potentially place all planned production under offtake for the first 10 years. That is not the profile of a speculative science project anymore — that is the profile of a future strategic industrial platform waiting for final financing and construction launch.

"All Aboard...!"

"Keepin the faith is hard at times!.... Let's Goooo Team NioCorp!"

Chico

MAXIM Forecast; Mine Portal Construction Underway; EXIM Financing DiscussionsOngoing – Reiterate Buy, $15

EmailDocViewer

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a few reads with your morning brew of choice.... Quick Post!

May 18th, 2026 - Opinion: NioCorp Developments: Offtake Agreement And Potential $800 Million Financings Validate The Bull Case

Search "Seeking Alpha" for link... A good read!

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FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS AS ALWAYS

https://reddit.com/link/1thjzqq/video/ea4refdtx22h1/player

This Maxim Group research report is a massive fundamental validation of the exact timeline and structural milestones we have been mapping out. Having a reputable sell-side firm slap a $15.00 Price Target on NioCorp right now—representing immense upside from current levels—shows that Wall Street is finally calculating the math on the Traxys and EXIM catalysts.

The report contains critical data points that directly reinforce your thesis and provide an explicit look at NioCorp's financial health:

1. The Cash Position is Much Stronger Than Expected

• Massive Cash Runway: Maxim notes that NioCorp ended F3Q26 (March) with $419.2 million in unrestricted cash (plus $2.1 million restricted).
• Tiny Cash Burn: They only burned $9.0 million this quarter vs. the analyst's expectation of $26.9 million. Because they are managing their cash so conservatively while starting the mine portal, they won't even need to look at raising next-stage capital until the second half of CY26.

1. The Step-by-Step EXIM Catalyst Confirmed

Maxim's analyst explicitly maps out the exact 1-2-3 punch required to unlock the $800 million EXIM loan:

1. The Offtake (Traxys): The report reiterates that management explicitly views securing these offtake agreements as the "final step required to advance the EXIM financing approval process."
2. The Updated DFS: NioCorp is actively coordinating the release of the updated feasibility study with private lenders and the U.S. government to align the economic modeling perfectly.
3. The Binding Term Sheet: Maxim expects the binding EXIM debt term sheet to immediately follow the publication of that DFS.
4. Government Backing is Flowing In

The report notes that NioCorp received $603K in cost reimbursements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) during the quarter. This is part of their $10 million DoD grant, with another $6.2 million in deferred milestone payments waiting to be unlocked as they finalize the scandium production samples and the updated DFS. This proves the U.S. defense establishment is actively monitoring and subsidizing Elk Creek's development milestones.

4. The Valuation Methodology

To get to that $15 price target, Maxim is using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model with a 14.0% discount rate, forecasting initial commercial revenues to begin in the first half of CY30.

When a sell-side firm puts a 14% discount rate on a pre-revenue project and still arrives at $15/share, it means they believe the probability of clearing the EXIM and Traxys hurdles is exceptionally high.

Chico

May 18th, 2026~Arafura Rare Earths Inks Deal with Traxys to Supply US Critical Minerals for Defense and Tech Sectors

Arafura Rare Earths, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)

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Arafura Rare Earths, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has signed a binding offtake letter of intent with global physical rare earth trader Traxys North America to support the revival and development of domestic manufacturing in the US automotive, national defense, and advanced technology sectors. Traxys plans to supply 500 mt/year of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and 7.5 mt/year of dysprosium-terbium (DyTb) oxide from Arafura's Nolans project in Australia's Northern Territory to US enterprises, including potential supply to "Project Vault" managed by the US Export-Import Bank (Exim). The plan aims to provide a tactical buffer against critical minerals supply shocks.

May 18th, 2026~Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience Starts Upstream — Where US Policy Is Weakest

Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience Starts Upstream — Where US Policy Is Weakest | Corporate Compliance Insights

For companies with critical minerals exposure, the risk isn't just supply disruption; it's regulatory volatility in resource-producing countries

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Critical minerals supply chain risk isn’t primarily a sourcing problem, supply chain expert Kenneth Johnson argues — it’s a governance problem. As resource-rich countries increasingly seek to expand their share of value through export restrictions and local processing requirements, US companies face a compliance environment that is growing more complex and less predictable, often faster than their risk frameworks can absorb.

The US has entered a new phase of industrial policy, one defined not by market reliance but by strategic intervention.

In recent years, Washington has committed substantial public resources to rebuilding domestic capacity in sectors deemed critical to economic security and national defense. Semiconductor manufacturing, advanced batteries and defense technologies have all been prioritized through targeted legislation and institutional mandates.

The scale of this shift is significant. The CHIPS and Science Act allocates approximately $53 billion to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing and reduce reliance on external supply chains. At the same time, institutions like the US International Development Finance Corp. have expanded their role in financing critical minerals projects abroad, while the US defense sector continues to maintain strategic reserves through the national defense stockpile to mitigate supply disruptions.

These actions reflect a clear policy direction: Supply chain resilience is now a core component of national security. Yet despite this progress, a fundamental gap remains.

US policy has focused heavily on strengthening domestic industrial capacity. However, the upstream and midstream segments that feed these industries — mining, processing and refining — remain largely external and structurally misaligned with US strategic objectives.

This is not simply a sourcing issue; it is a governance problem.

The structural imbalance

The global critical minerals system is characterized by a persistent imbalance.

Resource-rich countries, many of them in Africa, produce a substantial share of the world’s critical minerals but capture a limited portion of the value associated with them. In many cases, upstream producers retain less than 10%-15% of total value, while higher-value processing, refining and manufacturing activities are concentrated elsewhere.

At the same time, downstream processing capacity for several critical minerals is often 80%-90% concentrated in a single geography, creating systemic vulnerabilities for industrial economies, including the US.

This is a structural imbalance, not merely a geological one. For US policymakers and corporate compliance leaders, the implications are clear: Exposure is not limited to supply disruption; it extends to regulatory volatility, investment uncertainty and shifting policy regimes in resource-producing countries seeking to expand domestic value capture.

Limits of current approaches

Two dominant policy approaches have emerged in response to this imbalance.

The first is resource sovereignty, where governments impose export restrictions or local processing requirements in an effort to accelerate industrialization. While grounded in legitimate development objectives, these measures often outpace domestic capacity, leading to disrupted supply chains and reduced investment.

The second is unstructured liberalization, where extraction proceeds with minimal domestic value addition. This approach supports short-term supply continuity but reinforces long-term dependency and increases the likelihood of future policy intervention.

Both models introduce risk from a US perspective, either through abrupt regulatory shifts or through the accumulation of unresolved structural tensions that eventually trigger them.

Closing the governance gap

Addressing this challenge requires a more disciplined alignment between sovereign policy, industrial capability and global supply chain integration.

A structured approach I developed is one way to address this alignment challenge. I call it proportional collaborative sovereignty, or PCS, and I believe it offers a practical execution model.

PCS is grounded in a clear operational principle: Sovereign control over mineral value chains should expand in proportion to demonstrated domestic capability. Rather than imposing immediate restrictions or maintaining open-ended extraction models, policy evolves in sequenced stages aligned with real capacity in processing, refining and manufacturing.

This sequencing reduces policy volatility while improving investment clarity, two factors that have consistently undermined both development outcomes and supply chain stability.

Equally important, the model emphasizes collaborative industrialization. Industrial capacity is developed through structured partnerships — joint ventures, co-investment and technology transfer — often at regional scale. This enables resource-rich countries to build sustainable industrial bases while maintaining integration with global markets.

The relevance of such an approach is reinforced by recent policy outcomes in multiple jurisdictions. Export restrictions implemented without sufficient domestic processing capacity have, in some cases, resulted in reduced revenues, constrained production and delayed industrial development. These outcomes highlight the risks of misalignment between policy ambition and execution capability.

Implications for US policy and compliance

For US policymakers, regulators and corporate compliance professionals, the implications are increasingly material.

First, supply chain resilience cannot be achieved through domestic investment alone. Upstream and midstream segments must be governed in ways that are predictable, investable and aligned with host country development strategies.

Second, regulatory complexity will continue to increase. US companies operating across critical minerals value chains must navigate evolving policy environments in multiple jurisdictions, particularly as resource-rich countries seek to expand domestic value addition.

Third, institutions such as the US International Development Finance Corp. will play a central role in structuring investments that align commercial viability with strategic objectives. This will require closer coordination between public and private actors, as well as a more integrated approach to risk assessment.

Finally, diversification must extend beyond sourcing. It must include partnerships, financing structures and industrial ecosystems. Overreliance on any single geography, whether upstream or downstream, introduces systemic risk that cannot be mitigated through stockpiling alone.

Conclusion

The US has taken decisive steps to rebuild domestic industrial capacity and reduce strategic vulnerabilities. However, the long-term effectiveness of these efforts will depend on how the global supply systems that underpin them are governed.

Critical minerals supply chains are inherently international. Their resilience depends on aligning the interests of producing countries, industrial economies and private sector actors within a coherent and predictable structure.

Closing this governance gap is not optional; it is central to the next phase of US industrial and national security strategy.

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May 18th, 2026~Defence groups clamour to delay US ban on Chinese rare earth magnets

Chinese rare earth magnet ban has US defence companies scrambling

Rare earth magnets are used in everything from phones to fighter jets and weapons systems. Bloomberg

The magnets go into everything from electric vehicles and phones to fighter jets and weapons systems but their production is dominated by China, which has tightened its grip by limiting access to the crucial materials. Western governments are now racing to reduce their exposure.

The Trump administration has worked at pace to inject billions of dollars into the US’s nascent rare earths industry, but China remains by far the dominant producer of rare earth elements, metals and magnets. Experts warn that building a fully developed alternative supply chain will take years.

Several US metals executives said the administration was unlikely to look on the lobbying favorably.

In a Truth Social post this month, US President Donald Trump stressed that “all Federal agencies must buy American”, adding: “To the DC Bureaucrats: NO MORE handing out Waivers like candy!”

The Pentagon declined to comment.

Trump’s supply ban

Under rules introduced by Congress in 2018 during Trump’s first term, defense companies will be banned from supplying the US military with the magnets, as well as the metals tungsten and tantalum, if they have been sourced from China. The rules apply if any stage of the materials’ production has occurred in China, North Korea, Russia or Iran.

The change would “allow the United States – not an adversary – to define when, what and how we source materials for our defense industrial base”, said Abigail Hunter, executive director of Safe’s Centre for Critical Minerals Strategy, an advocacy group.

“Now that we are facing ongoing conflict and the urgent need to replenish our weapons systems, we may need flexibility in execution – but we absolutely cannot dilute the original bipartisan policy intent,” she said.

One person familiar with the debate said defense companies were “pushing back”, arguing to Congress that they comprise a small segment of the overall magnet market, making it hard for them to influence it.

The rules are also intended to generate demand for US magnet producers to support a domestic industry that has struggled to remain viable in the face of competition from China.

A US ban on Chinese-sourced rare earth metals has sent defense companies scrambling. Bloomberg

Some magnet production exists outside China, including in Germany, South Korea and the US.

However, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies warned in April that “unless significantly more capacity comes online in the next eight months, adhering to [the 2027 deadline] may not be feasible”.

Any delay could come in this year’s National Defense Authorization Act or in the form of waivers granted by the administration.

Companies may be able to obtain waivers for non-compliant items if they can show they have made efforts to map out their supply chains, among other criteria.

“Defense companies not doing a thing for eight years and then going to Congress looking for relief is unconscionable,” said lobbyist Jeff Green, whose clients include US magnet and rare earth companies. “I don’t think they’re going to find a lot of sympathy for the lack of proactivity on the issue.”

Companies are not always aware of the provenance of each component in complex and sprawling supply chains, with some procurement done by subcontractors, experts said.

The US Government Accountability Office warned last year that more than 200,000 defense department suppliers helped produce advanced weapons systems and other equipment, but that there was “little visibility into where these goods are manufactured”.

Efforts to better understand supply chain risks were “un-coordinated and limited in scope”.

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE AS ALWAYS:

Some photos from Antler on Sunday May 17th 2026 & shared on the ihub board post #129359. Thanks ANTLER!!! Wanted to share here as well. Mr. N sent me the link! .... Go check out Antler's post!

(99+) Niocorp Developments Ltd (NB): I drove by tonight. With the leaves on...

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Perhaps “The Market is still Underestimating What the Proposed Traxys–NioCorp Deal Actually Means…??”

Today’s close at roughly $5/share feels completely disconnected from the macro backdrop unfolding in real time. The U.S. government, DoD, EXIM, and allied nations are openly admitting they have a severe strategic vulnerability in rare earths, scandium, niobium, titanium, dysprosium, terbium, gallium, germanium, and magnet supply chains. Congress just expanded sourcing restrictions in the FY2026 NDAA. China’s heavy rare earth export controls remain in place. Defense contractors are now lobbying Washington because they literally cannot comply with future sourcing bans without new domestic supply. And while this is happening, NioCorp sits in Nebraska with one of the very few advanced U.S. projects capable of potentially supplying multiple critical minerals from one integrated domestic source.

At the same time, Traxys — a major global commodities player tied directly into “Project Vault” and Western critical minerals strategy — is already moving with Arafura for NdPr/DyTb supply while simultaneously working toward a much broader proposed arrangement with NioCorp. That should tell investors something important: Traxys is clearly assembling diversified non-Chinese supply chains across allied jurisdictions. Australia alone cannot solve the West’s supply problem. The U.S. still needs domestic niobium, scandium, titanium feedstock, heavy rare earths, downstream alloying, and eventually magnet materials. Elk Creek potentially checks multiple boxes at once in a way very few projects globally can.

Meanwhile, institutions continue adding shares in the $5–6 range while retail panics because the binding Traxys agreement and updated DFS have not yet dropped. Yes, management timing frustration is understandable. Mark Smith strongly telegraphed imminent completion of the legal documentation process. But delays at this stage of a project this strategic are far more likely tied to financing coordination, legal structuring, EXIM diligence, offtake integration, and final reserve/resource verification than some collapse of the underlying thesis. The portal work continues. The proven reserve conversion drilling is complete. EXIM review is active. The geopolitical need has only intensified.

And this is what many still fail to grasp: NioCorp is not merely a “rare earth junior.” Elk Creek potentially evolves into a vertically integrated U.S. strategic materials platform — mine → oxide → metal → alloy → magnet ecosystem support. Ferroniobium for steel and aerospace. Scandium oxide and eventual ScAl alloys for defense and aviation. Titanium dioxide and titanium chloride feedstock. NdPr, Dy, Tb, and potentially additional separated rare earth products for permanent magnets. Add future recycling, alloy partnerships, and domestic processing optionality, and Elk Creek starts looking less like a single mine and more like foundational national industrial infrastructure.

That’s why the disconnect at a ~$600M–$700M valuation is becoming harder to ignore. Either the market is correctly pricing a failed financing outcome… or it is dramatically underpricing what one of the only advanced multi-critical-mineral domestic projects in North America could become once financing, construction, and production visibility fully land.

My shares are not for sale! \"All aboard!\"

Had to do a follow up post for today. See what shakes out in the am!

Chico

May 18th, 2026~US-China trade breakthrough: Soybean deal, Boeing order, rare earth relief announced after Trump–Xi talks

  White House announces major US–China trade understandings after Trump–Xi meeting covering rare earth minerals, Boeing aircraft orders, and multi-billion-dollar US farm export commitments.

US-China trade breakthrough: Soybean deal, Boeing order, rare earth relief announced after Trump–Xi talks - World News | The Financial Express

The White House has announced a set of major trade understandings after a recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Officials say the talks have led to several important agreements that could strengthen trade between the two countries and support jobs, farming, and manufacturing in the United States. 

China moves to ease rare earth and mineral concerns

One of the biggest parts of the agreement is about rare earths and critical minerals, which are needed for electronics, defence systems, and modern technology.

According to the White House, China has agreed to address US concerns over shortages and supply issues involving key minerals like yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium. This also includes steps to reduce problems linked to production and processing equipment. 

US officials say this move is important because these materials are hard to replace, and any disruption can affect everything from manufacturing to national security. The aim is to make the supply more stable and predictable for American industries. 

China approves 200 Boeing aircraft order

Another major announcement is China’s approval of an initial order for 200 aircraft made by Boeing for Chinese airlines. This is the first big aircraft purchase from China since 2017. Boeing has confirmed the order and also said there could be more purchases later.

The White House said this deal is expected to support thousands of skilled jobs in the United States, especially in manufacturing and aerospace production, where Boeing plays a major role.

Big boost planned for US farm exports

Agriculture is also a major part of the agreement. China, according to the White House, has agreed to buy at least $17 billion worth of US farm products every year in 2026, 2027, and 2028, with the 2026 figure adjusted for timing. This builds on earlier commitments, especially in soybeans.

For American farmers, this means more steady demand and stronger export income over the next few years. Officials say it gives farmers more certainty after a long period of trade uncertainty. 

After a Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea last year, Washington had earlier said Beijing agreed to buy at least 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually for the next three years. This time, however, the latest statement did not mention a specific soybean quantity.

China’s Commerce Ministry also stopped short of naming soybeans directly or giving any exact numbers. Instead, Beijing said both countries had agreed to promote agricultural trade. 

US beef and poultry access restored in China

The agreements also reopen important parts of the Chinese market for US meat producers. China has renewed approvals for more than 400 US beef facilities and has also added new ones. This fully restores access for American beef exports to China. 

Along with that, poultry imports from US states that are approved by the USDA and free from bird flu have now resumed. Officials say this will help American meat producers regain a strong market that had been restricted in recent years. “China will work with U.S. regulators to lift all suspensions of U.S. beef facilities,” the White paper said.

China talks tariffs, US stays silent on duties

Both sides said they would create new trade and investment boards to improve communication and business ties between the two countries.

Still, there were clear differences in what each government chose to highlight.

China’s statement said reducing tariffs would be part of future plans between the two nations. The US readout, however, did not mention tariffs or duties.

Xi expected to visit Washington

President Xi is expected to visit the White House this fall for further high-level discussions. This visit is seen as a continuation of the recent progress and an opportunity to build on the agreements already reached. 

Markets are now watching closely to see how these agreements are carried out in the coming months, with hopes that they could bring more stability to US–China economic relations. 

A quick read with coffee as we wait for the catalysts to unfold...

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

It looks like China just reaffirmed to the world WHY critical minerals matter. Even after the Trump–Xi meetings and all the diplomatic headlines, the reality remains the same: the U.S. and allies are still dangerously dependent on China for heavy rare earths, scandium, niobium, dysprosium, terbium, and advanced magnet supply chains! The FY2026 NDAA, EXIM, DPA Title III funding, Project Vault, and billions now flowing into domestic critical mineral infrastructure are not random headlines anymore — they are the framework for an entirely new strategic industrial base.

Now look at NioCorp today sitting at roughly a $5.34–$5.46 share price while institutions continue accumulating shares in the $5–$6 range. Meanwhile, NioCorp is potentially lining up: (1) a binding Traxys offtake covering essentially all planned production for 10 years, (2) a possible $30M strategic anchor investment, (3) a pending 2026 DFS that could materially expand TREO, mine life, and magnetic REE outputs, (4) a potential EXIM FID pathway by mid-2026, (5) transition directly from portal development into full construction by Sept. 2026, and (6) downstream vertical integration pathways through scandium alloys, titanium products, magnet recycling, and future defense supply chain manufacturing.

That’s the part most people are missing. NioCorp isn’t just trying to build a mine anymore. It is potentially positioning itself as a multi-decade U.S. strategic materials platform tied directly into aerospace, defense, magnets, semiconductors, alloys, and national security supply chains. Mark Smith has repeatedly called Elk Creek a “national strategic asset,” and honestly, the macro backdrop is now starting to prove why.

So why hasn’t the stock exploded yet? Probably because markets still want final signatures and hard proof: the signed Traxys agreement, the DFS, the finalized financing stack, and EXIM FID. Until those arrive, large funds can still accumulate shares relatively quietly while uncertainty remains. But once those pieces lock together, the valuation framework changes from “speculative junior miner” to “strategic U.S. critical minerals infrastructure asset.” And that rerating can happen fast.

The six pathways now appear clearer than ever: niobium, scandium, titanium/TiCl4, magnetic rare earths, scandium-aluminum alloys, and future magnet recycling/separation. Very few Western projects can even claim one or two of those pathways. Elk Creek potentially brings all six together in one fully integrated domestic platform — exactly as Washington is now scrambling to build.

The question is no longer whether the U.S. needs projects like Elk Creek. The real question may soon become: what is the strategic valuation of one of the only advanced domestic projects capable of supplying all of them at once?

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

People also keep forgetting just how many critical materials are sitting inside Elk Creek under one roof. This is not a one-metal story. Elk Creek is expected to produce niobium for superalloys and defense steel, scandium for next-generation ScAl aerospace alloys, titanium dioxide and titanium tetrachloride for pigments, aerospace metals and industrial applications, plus magnetic rare earths including neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, & potentially even samarium, gadolinium. Delivering many of separated REEs essential for permanent magnets, EVs, robotics, drones, wind turbines, semiconductors, missiles, radar systems and advanced defense platforms. Add in the possibility of future magnet recycling and downstream alloy production, and the project starts looking less like a traditional mining company and more like the foundation of a vertically integrated U.S. strategic materials ecosystem.

America needs secure domestic critical mineral supply NOW. That is why institutions have been quietly accumulating shares in the $5–6 range while retail investors stare at short-term delays and daily price swings.

Now step back and look at the macro picture. China still dominates global rare earth processing and continues to weaponize supply chains through export controls and licensing restrictions. Meanwhile the FY2026 NDAA, DPA funding, EXIM initiatives, Project Vault, defense sourcing mandates, and billions in federal industrial policy are all screaming the same message: America needs secure domestic critical mineral supply NOW.

That is why institutions have been quietly accumulating shares in the $5–6 range while retail investors stare at short-term delays and daily price swings. The market may still be valuing NioCorp like a speculative junior miner today, but if financing lands, the DFS confirms expanded resources and mine life, and Elk Creek moves into construction, the asset could eventually be viewed as one of the most strategically important critical mineral projects in the Western Hemisphere.

Staying tuned! "All Aboard!"...

Chico

May 16th, 2026- China’s Rare Earth Controls Persist Despite Talks, Customs Data Shows

China’s Rare Earth Controls Persist Despite Talks, Customs Data Shows

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China’s export restrictions on heavy rare earth elements remain in effect more than a year after they were imposed, according to trade data and industry reports, despite diplomatic efforts to reach a resolution.

Shipments of key materials including yttrium, dysprosium and terbium have declined by roughly half compared to pre-control levels, data from customs agencies show. The controls, announced in April 2025 as retaliation for U.S. tariffs, have not been lifted, and Beijing has shown no indication of rolling them back.

Background of the Restrictions

The restrictions target a group of heavy rare earths that are essential for advanced defense systems, aerospace components, electric vehicle motors and wind turbines. China's Ministry of Commerce has stated that export applications are being reviewed and approved for eligible buyers.

However, analysts say selective licensing allows Beijing to maintain leverage over strategically sensitive supply chains. China controls about 80% of global rare earth processing, according to industry estimates. ^([1])

The move, announced in April 2025, was described by Chinese officials as retaliation for U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes. The action covers seven critical rare earth elements vital for defense and technology sectors. ^([2]) The U.S. Department of War has assessed that Washington's reliance on Chinese rare earth processing represents a national security risk, a view echoed by authors who note that the U.S. military depends on rare earths for navigation systems, guidance systems, radios and computers. ^([3])

Divergence From White House Statements

The persistence of the controls contradicts expectations set during earlier diplomatic engagements. Following a summit in late 2024, the White House indicated that China had agreed to effectively eliminate its export restrictions on rare earths.

A senior U.S. official confirmed in May 2026 that a rare earths deal between the two countries remains in effect, but acknowledged that an extension would be announced at an appropriate time. ^([4]) However, the April 2025 controls were imposed shortly after that summit and remain in force, with no evidence of removal in customs records.

U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have confirmed ongoing shortages affecting American manufacturers. The disconnect between diplomatic statements and on-the-ground data has frustrated industry executives.

Analysts cited by Reuters say the selective enforcement allows China to comply with the letter of agreements while preserving its strategic chokehold on supply chains. The U.S. military may have as little as two months of rare earth inventories remaining, according to intelligence and industry sources cited in a March 2026 report. ^([5])

Global Supply Disruptions and Price Surges

Prices for key rare earths have surged dramatically since the controls took effect. The cost of yttrium increased 69-fold within a year, according to a February 2026 report, halting some aerospace production lines. ^([6]) Price data from commodity pricing agencies shows that dysprosium and terbium have risen four to five times their pre-control levels, while yttrium has increased more than 140 times, according to Argus Media.

Aerospace firms have paused production due to yttrium shortages, and the U.S. government intervened to secure supplies for a major industrial group, officials said. In a 2022 interview, defense industry expert David Dubyne stated that "military F-35 fighter jets have been put on hold because they can't get a key rare earth element from China for their magnets." ^([7])

The restrictions have also disrupted semiconductor manufacturing, with chipmakers facing dangerous shortages of scandium, threatening 5G technology development. ^([6]) Japan received only a fraction of its previous dysprosium imports, and Germany received no shipments at all, according to customs data from those countries.

Diversification Efforts and Outlook

In response, the United States, Japan Germany and other G7 nations are accelerating efforts to develop alternative mining, refining and magnet production capacity. Australia's Lynas Rare Earths has begun producing heavy rare earths at its Malaysian plant, breaking China's monopoly on the rarest elements. ^([8]) USA Rare Earth announced a $2.8 billion acquisition of Brazil’s Serra Verde Group to expand Western supply chains. ^([9])

Japan and the U.S. have forged an alliance to mine underwater rare earth deposits near Minamitorishima Island, containing an estimated 16 million tons of rare earth oxides. ^([10]) The U.S. has also signed four major trade agreements with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam at the Association of South East Asian Nations summit to secure critical mineral supplies. ^([11])

But analysts say meaningful alternatives remain years away. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent described China’s export curbs as a “real mistake” that triggered a rapid Western shift toward domestic production and alternative suppliers. ^([12]) The long-term solutions are underway, but near-term supply constraints are expected to persist, with some industry experts warning that the situation will deteriorate before improvements materialize.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank's proposed $12 billion project to stockpile critical minerals would initially source supplies from China itself, highlighting the difficulty of decoupling. ^([13]) Robert Bryce, author of "Power Hungry," wrote that "the availability of rare earths is not just about balance of trade; it's also about national security," underscoring the stakes of the ongoing dependency. ^([3])

Conclusion

The continuation of export controls underscores the deep dependency of Western economies on Chinese rare earth supplies. While new projects are in development, the immediate outlook for manufacturers remains constrained.

The situation highlights the strategic vulnerability of supply chains that took decades to concentrate in a single country. As the U.S. and its allies pursue diversification, the effectiveness of these efforts will determine whether the current supply crisis becomes a permanent structural weakness.

A few reads with Iced coffee as we wait for a completed TRAXYS DEAL & DFS...

MAY 2026- Critical Minerals and Domestic Sourcing Mandates What State and Local Officials Need to Know About the Push to Bring Defense Supply Chains Home

Defense Maunfacturing Brief: Critical Minerals and Domestic Sourcing Mandates

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FORM YOUR OWN OPINIOINS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:

NioCorp is now positioned to have 100% of its planned production sold for the first 10 years—Niobium, Scandium, Titanium, and the full suite of magnet rare earths (Nd/Pr, Dy, Tb). Pair that with the existing ThyssenKrupp deal, and one of the biggest project risks—who buys the product?—is essentially being eliminated. This is EXACTLY what EXIM has been waiting on.!!

🚨 America Has Entered the Critical Minerals War — And NioCorp May Be Sitting at the Center of It

IMHO: ~The market still seems to think NB is “just another mining developer.” Meanwhile, the actual geopolitical backdrop has completely changed. The FY2026 NDAA now expands sourcing restrictions on critical minerals tied to defense systems, while the U.S. government is pouring billions into domestic supply chains through EXIM, DPA Title III, the Defense Industrial Base Fund, and direct strategic investments. Gallium, germanium, dysprosium, terbium, scandium, niobium, rare earth magnets — these are no longer niche commodities. ***They are now viewed as national security infrastructure! China still controls most global rare earth processing and continues restricting heavy REE exports, while prices for key defense materials have exploded higher. The U.S. government is openly telling industry: build domestic supply NOW.

That is why the setup around NioCorp has become so interesting. While the stock trades near $6, the company now has multiple converging pathways emerging at the same time: EXIM-backed project financing, the pending binding Traxys offtake package, ThyssenKrupp ferroniobium agreements, DoD scandium initiatives, Lockheed-linked ScAl alloy development, possible Title III support pathways, and the ongoing Elk Creek buildout. The portal project has already started, infill drilling is complete, technical work has been submitted to EXIM, and Mark Smith has openly stated EXIM activity is moving faster than at any point in the past 2.5 years. This is no longer a story about “if the ore exists.” It is increasingly about whether the U.S. wants a fully domestic niobium-scandium-heavy rare earth supply chain before China tightens the screws even further.

NioCorp has the potential to build something arguably just as strategic: A domestic scandium-to-aluminum alloy pipeline. With demand building across aerospace and defense, and with entities like Lockheed Martin, the Defense Logistics Agency, and advanced manufacturers already exploring lightweight, high-strength materials, NioCorp could follow a similar vertical model — oxide → master alloy → component-level integration.

At the same time, the market is beginning to realize that Elk Creek may not simply be a niobium/scandium mine anymore. The pending DFS is expected to update reserve classifications, potentially expand TREO visibility, and further define heavy magnetic rare earth potential including dysprosium and terbium — the exact materials now under intense strategic pressure globally. Meanwhile, neighboring explorer APXCF continues hitting impressive REE intercepts at the Rift Project directly adjacent to Elk Creek, including high-grade zones and unusually strong NdPr enrichment. That discovery is reinforcing the idea that southeastern Nebraska could evolve into a much larger strategic critical minerals district over time.

The irony is that the market continues rewarding early-stage discovery stories while heavily discounting advanced-stage financing stories. Apex can rally aggressively on drill results because investors are pricing possibility. NioCorp, on the other hand, is being forced through the hardest phase in mining development: proving financing, offtakes, construction sequencing, and execution capability. But "WHEN" the binding Traxys agreement lands, followed by a materially upgraded DFS and visible EXIM/FID progress, the narrative could shift violently. At that point, institutions may no longer view NioCorp as a speculative junior — but as a strategic U.S. industrial asset with government-aligned financing and long-term defense relevance.

And quietly, institutions already appear to be positioning. Major 13F filings (as others have shared), reported BlackRock ownership exceeding 5%, hedge fund accumulation, and increased institutional participation in the $5–6 range suggest sophisticated capital may already be front-running the derisking cycle. That matters because once financing visibility becomes real, many larger funds that currently cannot touch pre-production developers suddenly become eligible buyers. Markets often wait until uncertainty collapses — then reprice assets far faster than retail expects.

Bottom line: the next major catalysts are now stacked directly in front of the company — signed Traxys agreements, potential anchor investment participation, the final DFS update, EXIM/FID developments, continued DoD/ScAl progress, and ultimately the transition from portal construction into full-scale mine construction. In a world where the U.S. government is openly warning that critical mineral dependence on China is a national security threat, assets capable of supplying niobium, scandium, titanium, magnetic rare earths, and future downstream alloys are no longer being viewed through a traditional mining lens. The question the market may soon have to answer is simple: what is the strategic value of one of the only advanced domestic projects capable of supplying all of them at once?

BlackRock, hedge funds, and other major players are not accumulating millions of shares because they think this is “just another junior miner.” They see the same convergence retail is starting to connect: EXIM momentum, Traxys offtakes, DoD scandium initiatives, Lockheed-linked ScAl development, heavy REE potential, and one of the only advanced U.S. projects capable of producing niobium, scandium, titanium, and magnetic rare earths under one roof. \"ALL ABOARD! 🚂 \"

Mark Smith has stated repeatedly Elk Creek is not just a mine — it is a NATIONAL STRATEGIC ASSET. Now the rest of the market is finally starting to understand why. As the U.S. government pours billions into reshoring critical minerals, locks in sourcing mandates through the FY2026 NDAA, and races to break China’s grip on rare earths and defense metals, institutions are quietly building positions in NioCorp right here in the $5–6 range.

BlackRock, hedge funds, and other major players are not accumulating millions of shares because they think this is “just another junior miner.” They see the same convergence retail is starting to connect: EXIM momentum, Traxys offtakes, DoD scandium initiatives, Lockheed-linked ScAl development, heavy REE potential, and one of the only advanced U.S. projects capable of producing niobium, scandium, titanium, and magnetic rare earths under one roof. The portal is being built. The financing pieces are aligning. The strategic urgency is real. At some point the market stops valuing Elk Creek as a speculative story — and starts valuing it as critical national infrastructure.

"ALL ABOARD!! 🚂" Staying tuned with many!.... Let's GOooooo NioCorp!

Chico