"One More Year" - When to Give Up on That Rookie You've Been Holding
This article analyzed 410 dynasty rookies from 2017–2023 to answer:
“If a rookie still hasn’t produced by Year 1, Year 2, or Year 3… what are the odds they ever will?”
Some findings:
- RB odds crater after Year 2
- WR patience is somewhat justified
- TEs truly develop slower
- QBs have a brutal Year 2 cliff
Includes actual hit-rate data by position + dynasty implications.
Full breakdown: https://statchasers.com/when-to-give-up-on-dynasty-player/