3 Undervalued Quarterbacks to Trade for in Dynasty
In today's article we've identified great QBs to target at 3 different age ranges:
21-26, 27-32, and 33-38
Given these age ranges, there should be an option in here that's a great trade target whether you’re contending or rebuilding or somewhere in between
Tyler Shough
Jalen Hurts
Matthew Stafford
Eli Raridon, TE, New England - Athletic tight end tied to a 23-year-old MVP runner up in an offense that has traditionally featured the position, with the only other pass-catching tight end on the roster about to turn 32 and on the final year of his contract.
De'Zhaun Stribling, WR, San Francisco - Was he a reach at pick #33? Yes, probably, but that sort of draft capital is usually enough to push even the biggest underachievers into the first round of rookie drafts. Yet, somehow in a year where nobody picking outside the top five or six is all that excited about their options, he's regularly falling deep into the second, and often into the third round.
Bryce Lance, WR, New Orleans - Elite athleticism and class-leading downfield production, and he lands with one of the most aggressive play callers in the league, in an offense that just saw Rashid Shaheed pacing toward a 1,000-yard season before he was traded away.
Welcome to the Daily Trade and Team Help Megathread!
Expand your fantasy football network! Our partnered communities:
Took him 1.08 in my 12SF league. Took him over Sadiq and Simpson.
It seems like no one in the sub is high on him? Did I make a mistake? I understand that jets isn’t a good landing spot, but he will still be wr2 for them.
However, I think the scariest part is that there is no news about him. Every other rookie wr has something about him whether he’s doing well in camp or struggling.
Both are in their early 30s (Evans 32, Adams 33) and basically locked in for 2026 only. Evans signed a 3-year deal with the 49ers that’s very team-friendly — low guarantees and only ~$9.6M dead money if they cut him after this season. Adams is in the final year of his Rams deal (big cap hit but they’ll almost certainly play it out), then he hits free agency at 34. So in dynasty, we’re largely betting on this one upcoming season more than long-term security from either.
The bigger differentiator is playing style. Evans is the classic big, strong, physical receiver who wins with size, contested catches, and red-zone dominance. He should fit nicely as a big target in Kyle Shanahan’s offense with Brock Purdy. Adams is more elusive and route-running savvy, which is incredible but can erode faster with age.
Quickness fades; size and strength hold up better.
Adams has the better immediate offense and target competition concerns for Evans (though Puka Nacua is the main guy in LA), but I still give the edge to Evans for a higher floor as these guys age. Elite production might not last multiple extra years for either, but the physical style gives Evans the slight nod for one more strong year.
What do you guys think? Evans or Adams for the longer tail in dynasty?
Anyone in a league run by ESPN’s Matt Miller and not get paid as a winner? he has ghosted ours since the championship and provided 0 communication on what funds went to charity/providing payouts to the winners. i’ve seen a few others in the same boat and wanted to see if this is a wider spread problem than a couple leagues.
Looking to find a league or have spots to fill in your existing league? Here is the thread for it.
If you are looking to start a league, please make sure to have:
If you are looking to fill an orphan spot, in addition to above:
If you are looking to join a league, please make sure to list
Since this does deal with users off-platform, in alignment with Reddit policy, there is a zero tolerance for Doxxing. Feel free to share any usernames from fantasy platforms as a warning for bad behavior as a FYI to the community, but no real life identifiers.
Isaac Teslaa, Tory Horton, Tre Harris, Pat Bryant, Jaylin Noel. All in a similar tier imo.
All were in similar situations last year as WR3’s on their respective teams. All are stashes at the moment but which are you most confident are worth rostering for the intermediate future?
Horton produced the most when healthy but I think a TD regression is almost inevitable plus the Seahawks re-signed Shaheed. The rest feel like they are waiting on an opportunity but will it actually come?
What’s the biggest debate you’re having with yourself heading into your draft or while you’re on the clock? Could be a player you can’t rank correctly, a rookie vs veteran decision, win-now vs rebuild, trading picks, tier breaks, QB strategy in SF, or anything else. Interested to hear what tough calls everyone is struggling with this offseason.
Let’s discuss who the backup RB is. Only looking at teams where we know who the starting RB is and that there may be some different options behind them.
- Ollie Gordon
- Jaylen Wright
This one I’m not sure on. They both got run at different points last year. I’d guess some mix of them both with Gordon on short yardage and redzone stuff and Wright on the rest.
- Braelon Allen
- Isaiah Davis
Similar to the Dolphins.
- Samaje Perine
- Tahj Brooks
Perine was actually getting usage last year. Reliable in pass pro. I’d guess it’s him.
- DJ Giddens
- Seth McGowan
Heavily leaning Giddens
- Keaton Mitchell
- Kimani Vidal
Vidal was reliable last year. Mitchell is fun, especially with Mike McDaniel
- Emmett Johnson
- Emari Demercado
- Brashard Smith
Chiefs love their pass catching RBs. I like Emmett Johnson from this group.
- Malik Davis
- Jaydon Blue
- Phil Mafah
I’d guess Davis has the leg up based on last year. However Blue has the draft capital and Mafah has some positive reports as of late.
- Chris Brooks
- Marshawn Lloyd
- Also shoutout Damien Martinez
Can you rely on Lloyd? If not it’s Brooks. Would be cool to see Martinez make the team.
- Kaelon Black
- Jordan James
- Isaac Guerendo
It’ll be Black or James. Guerendo maybe gets moved?
I’ll talk about these other teams too that are a bit messy.
Saints just incase Kamara is cut or moved. A weird quote about him recently. Miller vs Neal.
Seahawks is a mess, it’s Charbs and Price obviously when Charbs is back. As of now Wilson, Holani, maybe even McIntosh.
Cards we know the top 2 but maybe Conner and/or Benson get moved on from.
I've been running a SuperFlex rookie hit rate model for the past six years — 12 years of dynasty rookie ADP mapped against every hit season produced. Just plugged the entire 2026 class in. Wanted to share a few things that jumped out before the next wave of rookie drafts kicks off.
Quick on the methodology, since most of this post leans on it.
The model produces three different hit rate numbers for every player:
Base rate is a solid baseline, but we can do better than that. The adjusted and composite are where the real signal lives. Everything below leans on those two.
A "hit" = a top-12 QB, top-15 RB, top-24 WR, or top-12 TE finish (full PPR). "3+" means a player produced 3 or more of those finishes in his career. So a 50% adjusted 3+ rate means the model thinks there's a 50% chance that player produces at least 3 career hit seasons.
ADP sources: MFL + Sleeper for 2014–17 (early SF era, harder to source), DLF for 2018–25, Sleeper for the 2026 sample (post–NFL Draft, early May).
OK — onto the actual class.
The headline: Round 1 is solid, the Round 2 cliff is brutal.
The 2026 class's average composite and adjusted 3+ hit rates, by round:
| Round | Composite 3+ | Adjusted 3+ |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 51% |
| 2 | 14% | 15% |
| 3 | 14% | 14% |
| 4 | 5% | 6% |
This is the steepest round-1/round-2 cliff of any class I've modeled going back to 2014. The 2026 class is front-loaded with conviction names; starting in the EARLY 2nd, it's a sea of dart throws. If you're at the 1.07–1.12 turn this year, the math says you should be more willing than usual to reach for the player you've planted your flag on. The drop-off is severe. The 3rd round essentially gives you the same odds of hitting on a prospect as the 2nd does this year.
The biggest steals in the class.
I took every player's projected ADP rank (1–48) and compared it to where the model ranks them by adjusted + composite 3+. Positive value = model says the player is worth more than consensus does.
Top 6:
| Slot | Player | Pos | Value vs ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.11 | Oscar Delp | TE | +21 |
| 4.06 | Brenen Thompson | WR | +19 |
| 3.09 | Eli Raridon | TE | +17 |
| 3.03 | Max Klare | TE | +14 |
| 4.03 | Justin Joly | TE | +12 |
| 3.04 | Skyler Bell | WR | +10 |
Four tight ends in the top six. Delp, Raridon, and Klare are the headliners — all R3, all with adjusted 3+ rates in the 28–42% band, all going at ADPs that say consensus thinks they're late-round flyers. Our 2021 hit rate cut planted the flag on round-3 TE as the highest-EV scouting target in the rookie draft, and the 2026 update made that finding more emphatic, not less. If your league has a TE-needy roster and you're picking in round 3, the play is clear.
The non-TE name to circle: Brenen Thompson at 4.06 (#2 in the table). Film profile screams "draft me earlier," and the 33% adjusted is the kind of number that usually doesn't show up below the third round. The Mike McDaniel pairing doesn't hurt.
The top of the class.
Flagship name is the one you'd expect. Jeremiyah Love at 1.01 comes in at 66% composite / 82% adjusted 3+. An 82% adjusted rate is the kind of number I don't hand out — it requires the film, the projection, and the historical comp pool to all be pointing in the same direction. They are.
Behind Love, the round-1 WR cluster is loaded: Tate, Tyson, Lemon, Concepcion, Cooper, and Boston all sit in the 40–55% composite range, with Tate and Tyson at 60% adjusted 3+. The 1.07–1.12 WR is the most consistent positional bet in the entire model. The 2026 class is exactly what that pattern was built to test.
The reaches I'd fade.
Five names where consensus is paying too much:
This is the surface read. Full article — round-by-round draft plan, full reach + value tables, and the post-draft buy/sell list — at the link below. The full 48-player board is one tab over once you're there.
→ Full breakdown on hivefantasy.com
Curious where the sub lands on the R3 TE wave — anyone else high on Delp, Raridon, or Klare? Or are we the only ones planting that flag this early?
Everyone always posts and talks about the hot takes they have for incoming rookies and vets alike, but what are your realistic takes you have on players and situations changing, breakouts etc?
For me I see a positive regression for Baker and Egbuka alike compared to their second half stretches last year due to their injuries. Will Egbuka break into WR1 territory with a completely healthy season? We’ll see!
Let’s hear em!
Let me preface by saying I know I’m going to get crushed for this post. Other than that, I’ll get right to it.
The biggest “sell high” in dynasty is…. Josh Allen.
To be clear: this is not an argument against Allen as a player. I think he’s phenomenal. He’s probably the best QB in football and he’s been the gold standard of fantasy consistency for half a decade.
My argument is about dynasty economics.
Allen’s current market value implies he provides a massive positional advantage over the rest of the QB landscape. I’m not convinced the actual scoring gap justifies the cost required to acquire or hold him.
Seemingly every “expert” or analyst will consistently say he’s worth 4+ 1sts.
Let’s take a look.
Allen fantasy PPG over the last 5 seasons:
2025: 23.4
2024: 23.9
2023: 25.9
2022: 25.5
2021: 26.1
Now compare that to some other QBs from 2025:
Trevor Lawrence: 21.7 PPG
Justin Herbert: 20.1 PPG
Caleb Williams: 19.7 PPG
Bo Nix: 19.8 PPG
Jalen Hurts: 20.3 PPG
And there’s more where that came from. Not to mention an incoming QB class in 2027 that many believe will re shape the market,
The above PPG is roughly a 2-4 PPG difference between Allen and a large cluster of QBs that are valued dramatically lower in dynasty. If Allen continues the decline into the low 20s with PPG, I believe he will have a decently large decrease in value compared to what he’s at now.
And obviously depending on format, the edge shrinks even more.
In 6-point passing TD leagues especially, elite rushing QBs lose some of the separation that exists in standard 4-point formats. In 1QB leagues, replacement value becomes even more relevant.
My takeaway is an attempt to not conflate the best player with the best value, although I do understand the point of playing fantasy is to have the best players and to win.
Allen is still QB1. But being QB1 does not automatically mean he is the most efficient use of dynasty resources.
If the market values him at Herbert/Lawrence + 2 1sts, I think there’s a legitimate argument that the insulation and flexibility gained from tiering down outweighs the weekly scoring edge.
I would seriously consider moving Allen for a package like this. Not because I expect Trevor/Herbert/etc to outscore Allen outright (though they could), but because I don’t think the difference between Allen and the QB6-QB10 range is large enough to justify the gap in market cost.
The point of this isn’t that I believe Allen id going to fall off or decline, though many will point to his age and the amount of rushing production he offers. The point is that dynasty players may be overpaying for relatively small advantages at the QB position while sacrificing too much roster value elsewhere.
If someone in your league wants to pay an untouchable premium for Allen, I think there’s a strong argument that cashing out at peak value is the sharpest long-term play.
Every week I pull trade data from our database of Sleeper dynasty leagues to see who's being moved the most. Here are the top 10 most traded players from the last 7 days.
We score every trade to determine if the acquiring manager paid above or below market value. That gives us a value trend signal for each player and you can determine whether to buy low or sell high depending on the player and their situation.
This week we tracked 564,684 completed trades across 74,036 active leagues, pulling from our database of over 413,441+ leagues scanned. One of the largest dynasty trade datasets in the industry.
| Rank | Player | POS | Trades | Value Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rashee Rice | WR | 747 | ➡️ Fair Value — going above market price in 55% of trades |
| 2 | Brian Thomas | WR | 743 | ➡️ Fair Value — going above market price in 40% of trades |
| 3 | Marvin Harrison | WR | 676 | ➡️ Fair Value — going above market price in 42% of trades |
| 4 | Bucky Irving | RB | 660 | ➡️ Fair Value — going above market price in 48.5% of trades |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 641 | ➡️ Fair Value — going above market price in 42% of trades |
| 6 | Josh Downs | WR | 638 | ➡️ Fair Value — going above market price in 46% of trades |
| 7 | David Montgomery | RB | 633 | ➡️ Fair Value — going above market price in 40.5% of trades |
| 8 | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 629 | 📉 Declining — going below market price in 63.5% of trades |
| 9 | Luther Burden | WR | 589 | ➡️ Fair Value — going above market price in 42.5% of trades |
| 10 | DJ Moore | WR | 588 | 📉 Declining — going below market price in 61.8% of trades |
What the signals mean:
📈 Rising — Going above market price in 60%+ of trades. Demand is high, value is trending up.
➡️ Fair Value — Going near market price. The market is split (40–60%).
📉 Declining — Going below market price in the majority of trades. Listed value may be inflated.
WR dominates the board this week — 7 of the top 10 are wide receivers. Tuten and DJ Moore are the two declining signals, both going below market in the majority of their trades.
🆕 Quick update: You can now send trades directly inside Sleeper from the Dynasty Dealer app — including mass-sending trades to multiple league-mates at once. You can also make waiver claims and accept or decline trades all within Dynasty Dealer a free app on iOS and Android.
The Tools: Trade Calculator — Fair Trade Finder — Mass Trade Sender — Real Trade Database — Rankings + Market Sentiment — Portfolio Dashboard — Roster Recon — Draft Rush