r/DynastyFF

The 2027 class has been talked about for a couple years now as potentially one of the stronger dynasty classes we've seen, particularly at WR and QB.

Now that we're far enough into the college season to have some actual data, how do people who follow the prospects closely feel about the class?

Has it generally performed up to expectations? Any players who have meaningfully raised or lowered their stock? And more broadly, does this still look like the deep/high-end class people were projecting it to be, or has some of the hype cooled?

Not looking for pick values or trade advice. Mostly curious how the class itself is developing compared to the expectations coming into the season.

Kirk Cousins has been incredible for the Raiders this year, nearly leading them to a victory over KC and ranking as the QB7 on the season in terms of fantasy points. Up until this last week I think most people have thought that Kirk would only be starting some of this season, however with this most recent game I think the question begs itself: will Kirk remain here to stay this season? If the Raiders are in playoff contention I don't think it makes much sense to switch up at QB, and it seems as though Kirk might be cementing himself as a potential starting option next year for a team that needs a bridge QB? Is Kirk a guy we need to be buying if we are contending?

KTC has them ranked as WR15 for Parker Washington and WR29 for Michael Wilson, with a value gap of about an early 2nd round pick. Their roles seem to be solidifying themselves in each respective offense, and they are looking like very similar assets in terms of scoring. Is the consensus still that these players are this far apart, or in your opinion, a case of poor KTC user data?

It’s the time of season where the waiver wire is getting thin. Though with bye season now upon us and the injury rollercoaster continuing it’s run down the tracks, there’s always a need available for either a necessary replacement or long-term investment. I was looking at my websites stats page and trying to find players that had good production data this year but are bit players on offenses currently, and given their DMX score have potential to be more than a bit player in the near future. Most of these players are not going to be on the wire today, but they are in situations where their roles are good (but not great), the data says their performing well, and they are young enough to be good dynasty investments now, and their value has likely not yet peaked, so you don’t have to break the bank and the payoff could be handsome in a year or two. Throw these guys in with some bigger players as add ons, or pick them off with a 2^(nd) rounder or less, and it will likely be worth your while.

Quick note, DPX and DMX are in-season and pre-draft performance metrics, respectively, that pull together volume, efficiency and scoring (DPX) and draft, combine and college stats (DMX) into one measure to help identify quality players to pull onto your roster. I recently updated our stats page to include usage and next gen stats, and I wanted to use it for this analysis. Here’s a few players that stood out:

• Roman Wilson – DMX: 0.66, DPX Now: 0.56 – Wilson was a decile 3 WR coming out of college, he had a 37% chance of having a peak season that was starter quality. This means he was better than average but not elite. In his third year he’s averaging 6 targets a game, and literally has had 6 targets in every game, Mr. Consistent. His target share avg. is 16.8%, pretty good for a guy many thought would be behind Germie Bernard after the draft. But guess what, through 4 games that’s 2 more targets a game than Michael Pittman, which means very quietly Wilson has taken over as WR2 in Pittsburgh. Now, likely he’s on rosters at this point but there is still an opportunity here to get him at a decent price. He’s never going to be a WR1, and who knows who’ll be QBing in Pittsburgh next year, but Wilson is only 25 and can be a solid WR2 for your dynasty team for years to come, if you can grab him before he has a blowout game.
• Tre Harris – DMX: 0.86, DPX Now: 0.20 – Another decile 3 WR coming out who had some hype due to Quenton Johnston’s brick hands. He’d fallen out of favor a bit with Ladd McConkey coming on board, but he can’t stay healthy (though he’s played every game so far this year), Harris has benefited. Now I’ll recognize up front the Chargers offense is not doing well right now, but you can use that to your advantage to nab Harris while he’s still cheap. He’s performing well as his DPX score shows (above zero is good, below bad and magnitude of score matters), but what’s really interesting so far is his targets per game and target share. He’s leading the Chargers in targets per game at 5.3 and target share of 18.5%. Now, we know that’s likely due to Ladd McConkey’s injuries to some extent, but still, McConkey has played every game. It’s pretty good production for a guy you could pick up on the waiver wire at the beginning of the season. Due to his current production, that’s likely no longer the case. But as I said, with the LAC offense struggling, this is a good time to get him low and see if these trends continue. At very least, Johnston is in the final year of his contract and likely won’t be back next year, and Tre Harris can be a productive WR2 at likely a WR3 or 4 price. Harris btw, is also flagged as a breakout candidate on our site.
• Terrance Ferguson – DMX: 1.38, DPX Now: -0.12 – Ferguson landed on IR this week, the perfect time to poach him for a bright dynasty future. I’ll admit this one is tough to navigate, as the Rams have a lot of TE’s and seem to rotate them randomly. But he’s 2^(nd) among those TE’s at 4 targets per game and target share at 12.6%. The cool thing is his advanced metrics as YAC over expected is 1.4 vs. Higbee’s -0.6. At 23, Ferguson is on my site as a breakout candidate and his main competition is 33 and on a modest 2-year contract. Ferguson is the better bet, he showed what he could do in week 2 when he had 6 catches for 54 yards. While he’ll be up and down this year, his arrow is solidly up, and trading while he’s on IR is the perfect time to nab him.
• Kaelon Black – DMX: 0.30, DPX Now: -0.62 – Black surprised many people when he received the same number of touches as Christian McCaffrey week 1 (15). That hasn’t happened since, but Black is still averaging 8 touches per game, about half of what CMC gets. Being the main backup to CMC in San Francisco gets a lot of attention, so again, this guy is not just out there an available, but he had a good enough college profile and has a solid enough role on the team right now, that you can even play him in deep leagues without CMC getting injured or anything (and I certainly don’t wish for that). I’m not fond of that negative DPX Now score, but that’s not unusual for a rookie bit player. His yards per carry is 3.9 which is not bad for a rookie, and his usage is very positive this early in his career.
• Tai Felton – DMX: 1.08  – Felton does not have enough data to score, in DPX Now, and he is the one player here who is likely to be on the wire. His role is miniscule compared to the other on this list. But interestingly, Jauan Jennings has not performed this year and seems to be falling out of favor. So much so, they just signed Odell Beckham. And look, Felton will play behind both of those guys for the near future. But Felton has a rookie profile closer to Jordan Addison’s than anyone else’s on this WR Corps (Addison DMX: 1.15, Felton: 1.08). Felton at this point in the year is third in targets on the WR corps, though that’s not saying much at 1.5 per game. The Vikings obviously don’t trust him enough to be their WR3 today. But that doesn’t mean the situation can’t evolve. And Felton has the pedigree (DMX score) to suggest that despite a slow start to his career, he could evolve into a solid WR role player that can be useful on your roster. He’s free now, so picking him up to see what happens costs nothing but a roster spot.

> Eagles offensive coordinator Sean Mannion said the team would continue operating under center.

> Mannion defended his approach during a Tuesday presser, two days after the Eagles offense — missing DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley — sputtered to a loss against the Rams. The Eagles have put Jalen Hurts under center and utilized play action much more than usual this season. It’s a strategy that hasn’t paid off quite yet. Hurts ranks 31st out of 38 qualifying QBs in adjusted yards per attempt on passes from under center; his 18 percent success rate from under center is by far the worst in the NFL. It’s hard to envision brighter days ahead for Hurts if Smith remains sidelined. He’s barely startable in 12-team formats for now. - Denny Carter

How secure is Jalen Hurts’ job going into 2028? The offense has really struggled, especially in the passing game. After the jurgens trade, the Eagles now have 2 firsts and 2 seconds in the 2028 draft. If things don’t improve, that gives Howie a ton of ammo to go get a QB. Feels like 2027 could be a pretty big year for Hurts.

In my leagues Baker has essentially been left for dead, most managers have been trying to get sell him for whatever they can get. Baker hasn't been great since the bye week last year, but he's had some injuries and the circumstances he had to start the year (Rainy game against CLE, playing against the vikings D) weren't great for fantasy production. Is he a buy as a guy who can be a QB2 for the next couple of years or is he someone everyone should avoid at all cost?

Hey everyone. I am a commissioner for a 12 team SF league (not TEP). It’s a league between friends. It’s early in the season I know, but I foresee two guys leaving the league after this season as they have been very inactive and have been starting multiple injured guys (they have to be reminded to set the lineup). Consequentially they are two of the worst teams in the league. So with that, I want y’all’s opinion on what to do once they likely leave after the season. I could find two new owners, but not sure how the league would respond if they are not people who they know. The other option would be to downsize the league. In that case, would the players on their teams go to the waiver wire for FAAB bidding or go into the rookie draft. Players like Puka, Kyren, CMC, Burrow and Higgins would become available. Thanks in advance!

Wednesday Update: I'd say the biggest weather story I'm watching for Week 5 is the potential influence of Tropical Storm Isaias and its associated moisture on parts of the eastern U.S. this weekend.

Four games are standing out right now on Kickoffweather.com

NYG @ WAS: 5/10
🌧️ Thunderstorms currently expected, with around 0.25-0.35" projected
💨 Winds 5–15 mph, gusts up to ~30 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the low to mid 60s

IND @ PIT: 3/10
🌧️ Thunderstorms currently expected, with around 0.10" projected
💨 Winds 5–15 mph, gusts up to ~25 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s

CLE @ NYJ: 3/10
🌧️ Rain currently expected, around 0.10" projected
💨 Winds around 5–15 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the low to mid 60s

CIN @ MIA: 3/10
⛈️ Chance of thunderstorms
💨 Winds around 5–15 mph
🌡️ Temperatures in the low 90s

Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to strengthen and move inland this weekend, and I’ll be watching closely to see how much of that moisture gets pulled north and east into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The exact track and timing will be critical for these games. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see forecast rainfall totals increase as we get closer to kickoff.

EDIT: The mock draft tool is live! Didn't expect to have it ready this fast, but here it is: https://www.hivefantasy.com/tools/mock-draft

Free, no account needed. Pick your draft slot or set your exact picks if you've made trades, choose linear, snake, or 3rd-round reversal, and the CPU drafts around you. Every pick shows the hit rate for that exact slot. Crowd-sourced ADP from everyone's mocks is the next thing we're building. Let me know about any bugs!

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Hey guys! My co-host and I run a small fantasy football YouTube channel (and website) focused on analytics and scouting. We've been following most of the 2027 class since they were in high school, and four weeks into the college season felt like the right time to update our board.

In the video (linked above), we re-draft Round 1 of the 2027 superflex rookie class, go through the honorable mentions that just missed, and then compare everything to our preseason mock to show who's risen and who's fallen since then.

Below is our updated projected ADP through three rounds, our 12-year superflex rookie hit rate study (I think it changes how you should value each of these pick ranges), and a few of the players we spent the most time on.

Our projected 2027 superflex rookie ADP (through CFB Week 4):
This is where we think these guys would go in a superflex rookie draft right now, not necessarily where we'd take them. (Spoiler: in a few spots, we didn't.) To be upfront, this is mostly my educated guess for now. More on how we're fixing that at the bottom.

Round 1
1.01 Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
1.02 Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida
1.03 Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
1.04 Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
1.05 Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss
1.06 Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
1.07 Drew Mestemaker†, QB, Oklahoma State
1.08 Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama
1.09 Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia
1.10 Julian Sayin†, QB, Ohio State
1.11 Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
1.12 Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Round 2
2.01 KJ Duff, WR, Rutgers
2.02 Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
2.03 Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
2.04 Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana
2.05 Trey'Dez Green, TE, LSU
2.06 Justice Haynes, RB, Georgia Tech
2.07 Wyatt Young, WR, Oklahoma State
2.08 CJ Carr†, QB, Notre Dame
2.09 Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas
2.10 Deuce Alexander, WR, Ole Miss
2.11 Luke Reynolds, TE, Virginia Tech
2.12 Reed Harris, WR, Arizona State

Round 3
3.01 Mark Fletcher Jr., RB, Miami
3.02 Jayden Maiava, QB, USC
3.03 Hollywood Smothers, RB, Texas
3.04 LJ Martin, RB, BYU
3.05 Amare Thomas, WR, Houston
3.06 Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M
3.07 Bryant Wesco Jr., WR, Clemson
3.08 Antwan Raymond, RB, Rutgers
3.09 Wayshawn Parker, RB, Utah
3.10 T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson
3.11 Fluff Bothwell, RB, Mississippi State
3.12 Junior Sherrill, WR, Vanderbilt

† Possible 2028 declare. Worth pricing that in before you spend a first on Mestemaker or Sayin.

The hit rate study
Some of you may remember from past posts, but a quick refresher on methodology: We tracked superflex rookie ADP for every class going back to 2014 and looked at how often players drafted in each pick range turned into actual fantasy starters.

Hit season: a Top 12 QB/TE, Top 15 RB, or Top 24 WR finish (full PPR).

We measured 1+, 2+, and 3+ hit seasons. 1+ runs through the 2025 class, 2+ through 2024, and 3+ through 2023, so every player in the sample has had time to get there. (The full breakdown by position is on our Hit Rate Tool.)

1.01-1.06: 65% (1+), 52% (2+), 40% (3+)
1.07-1.12: 56%, 44%, 35%
2.01-2.06: 39%, 30%, 23%
2.07-2.12: 20%, 13%, 8%
Round 3: 23%, 14%, 10%
Round 4: 11%, 6%, 3%

Some of the biggest takeaways:

Early first round running backs are the safest bet in rookie drafts. 73% of RBs drafted 1.01-1.06 have had at least one hit season, and half of them have had three or more. That's the best number in the entire study. So if you're sitting at 1.02 debating Baugh, the data is on your side. Taking a RB that early in superflex used to feel crazy. It shouldn't anymore.

The back half of round 2 is still a black hole. Hit rates get cut in half from 2.01-2.06 (39%) to 2.07-2.12 (20%). When I first ran this study a few years back, late 2nds were hitting at a lower rate than 4th rounders. That's evened out a bit, but late 2nds still hit less often than 3rd rounders (23%). Don't pay a premium to move up from the 3rd into the back of the 2nd. If anything, sell your late 2nds to someone who values them more than the data does.

Late first round WRs have been better than early first round WRs. 68% vs 52% for 1+, and 53% vs 31% for 3+. The sample sizes here are small (13 to 28 picks per bucket), so I wouldn't treat it as gospel. But it's worth knowing if you're on the clock at 1.08 and your guy is a receiver.

QB value falls off fast after the top six. QBs taken 1.01-1.06 hit at least once 68% of the time. From 1.07-1.12, that drops to 38%. In superflex, where a QB actually goes matters more than the fact that he's a QB.

A few guys worth talking about (stats through Week 4):

Jadan Baugh (RB, Florida, 1.02). 83 carries, 600 yards (7.2 YPC), and 11 rushing touchdowns in four games, including 29-142-3 against Ole Miss. He's a 6'1", 231-pound three-down back, and right now he looks like the best running back in college football. Pair that with the early RB hit rate and 1.02 makes a lot of sense.

Darian Mensah (QB, Miami, 1.04). 94-of-106 (88.7%), 1,211 yards, 14 TD, 0 INT, and 11.4 YPA since transferring from Duke. That's absurd. The caveat is that only two of his four opponents (Stanford and Wake Forest) are Power 4 teams, and neither is a great defense. If he keeps this up once the schedule gets tougher, 1.04 is too low.

Charlie Becker (WR, Indiana, 1.03). 19 catches, 370 yards, and 6 TDs, and he's clearly Indiana's go-to guy even with Nick Marsh in the room. E watched the Northwestern game and they just kept feeding him. Our comp is Christian Watson: long strides, high-point ability, and a route tree that's still developing.

KJ Duff (WR, Rutgers, 2.01). 6'6", 225, with 29 catches for 550 yards and 7 TDs, including 9-196-3 in the opener. He wasn't even in our preseason top 24, so this one's on us. Defenses are going to key on him from here, so the next few weeks will tell us a lot.

Arch Manning (QB, Texas, 1.12). 63.5% completions, 862 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT. Not exactly the start people wanted, but Texas is 4-0 with wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee. This is where E and I disagree the most. One of us took him way earlier than 1.12 in our re-draft. The other compared him to Daniel Jones. You'll have to watch to find out who.

The video
Round 1 re-draft first, then the honorable mentions, then a full movement board of who rose and who fell since our preseason mock. Our picks break from the ADP above in a few big spots, and we explain every one of them.

The mock draft board is live
The draft board we used in the video is now free to use on our website. Every prospect's 2026 game log, the hit rate for the exact slot you're picking at, pro comps, NFL draft rankings, and how each player has moved since our preseason mock, all updating live as you make picks. You can pick your slot or set your exact picks if you've made trades, and the CPU drafts around you.

The bigger reason we built it: the ADP above is my best guess, and I'd rather it wasn't. Crowd-sourced 2027 superflex rookie ADP from everyone's mocks is the next piece we're building, so we can see where these guys actually go months before real rookie draft data exists. We think it's the best free mock draft tool out there, and it's staying free.

The website
The mock draft tool lives on hivefantasy.com. I will be updating/refreshing ADP and prospect profiles, but there's already a lot there right now:

2027 Mock Draft: run unlimited superflex rookie mocks with hit rates at every pick;

2027 Big Board: all 48 prospects with hit probabilities from our rookie model;

2027 Prospect Reports: scouting reports and pro comps for every player;

Hit Rate Tool: the full 12-year study, broken out by position and pick range;

Methodology: sample sizes, thresholds, and sourcing, if you want to poke holes in it.

Would love to hear from you guys in the comments. Let us know if there’s anyone we’re overlooking, too high on, or too low on.