u/Comfortable-Deal-525

The 2026 draft is officially wrapped, which means front offices are about to start dumping contracts to clear cap space and minutes for the new guys.

I was curious who is actually on the chopping block, so I ran a model that tracks a player's actual on-court production against their current cap hit to see who is severely overpaid.

Based on the numbers, here are a couple of guys who are massive "Sells" right now:

• Patrick Williams (CHI): The Bulls just took Caleb Wilson at No. 4 overall. Meanwhile, the model shows Patrick Williams holding a brutal $-15.8M efficiency deficit. He’s only producing about $2.3M in actual value. He is officially dead weight blocking Wilson's path and they need to move him ASAP.
• Deandre Ayton (LAL): With the draft over and Austin Reaves just agreeing to a massive $185M max extension, the Lakers' cap situation is on fire. Ayton is a huge reason why. The math shows his actual on-court production is only worth about $15.2M, but his cap hit is $33.6M (giving him an $-18.5M efficiency deficit). If LA wants to flesh out the roster around Reaves' new deal next week, Ayton has to be the first one traded.

Who do you guys think is the most obvious trade casualty this week?